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ICON plc (ICLR) Q2 2026 — ICON reported Q2 2026 (quarter ended June 30) after the close on July 29. Revenue $2,063.5M (+1.2%, +0.4% cc), adjusted EPS $2.56 vs $3.52 (-27.3%), adjusted EBITDA $327.2M / 15.9% (from 20.5%). Net book-to-bill 1.51x on gross bookings +24.1%. The stock went $178.18 -> $165.53 -> $163.57: about -8.2% in two sessions.

The 1.51x book-to-bill was called 'optically a crazy high number throughout the entire history of the industry' on the call — but ICON's own release says the DIRECT FEE book-to-bill was 1.20x, and its 2026 guide assumes direct fee revenue DECLINES ~2% organically. Worse: gross profit DOLLARS fell $104.0M (-17.8%) on revenue that rose, which a pass-through mix shift cannot arithmetically explain.

THE CALL: REDUCE (3/5, A REAL BACKLOG, A BROKEN MARGIN, A PRICED RECOVERY) — base-case value ~$125.0 vs ~$163.57 today.

KEY METRICS:

- OUR CALL: REDUCE 3/5 — fair value ~$125 vs the $163.57 close (-24%). Street: Buy but with NO upside — consensus target $164.75 (+0.7%) across 30 analysts (17 buy/11 hold/2 sell), range $100-$207. Post-print upgrades: Truist to Buy $207 (from $159), RBC to Outperform $185 (from $126), Mizuho $190.

- THE PRINT: revenue $2,063.5M (+1.2%, +0.4% constant currency). Adjusted diluted EPS $2.56 vs $3.52 (-27.3%). Adjusted EBITDA $327.2M = 15.9% of revenue vs 20.5% (-21.7%). GAAP diluted EPS $0.94 vs $2.56 — a $32.9M loss on the Symphony Health disposal plus a ~$40M swing on the tax line. Effective tax rate 18.4%.

- THE 1.51x THAT ISN'T: gross bookings $3,681M (+24.1%), cancellations $562M, net wins $3,120M, net book-to-bill 1.51x, backlog $23.4B (+3.0% q/q). But the DIRECT FEE book-to-bill was 1.20x (1.3x in Q1, ~1.25x for H1). Pass-throughs (investigator grants, site fees, imaging, patient travel) are reimbursed at ~zero margin. Management blames US healthcare inflation, not demand.

- THE GUIDE NOBODY QUOTES: at the midpoint, ICON's own 2026 outlook assumes DIRECT FEE revenue declines ~2% organically. FY guide $7,850-8,150M revenue and $10.00-11.00 adjusted EPS — vs $8,251.3M and $12.53 in 2025 and $13.37 in 2024. Guide midpoint implies ~16.5% full-year EBITDA margin.

- THE $104M MIX CANNOT EXPLAIN: revenue $2,039.1M -> $2,063.5M, but direct costs $1,455.8M -> $1,584.2M (+8.8%). Gross profit fell $583.3M -> $479.3M: -$104.0M, -17.8%. Adjusted gross margin 23.8% from 29.1% (-530bps). A pass-through shift lowers the margin PERCENT and leaves gross profit DOLLARS unchanged — so it cannot account for a dollar decline.

- FIVE QUARTERS OF ADJUSTED EPS: $3.52 (Q2'25) -> $3.22 (Q3'25) -> $2.52 (Q4'25) -> $2.50 (Q1'26) -> $2.56 (Q2'26). Adjusted EBITDA: ~$1,671M (2024) -> $1,530.7M (2025) -> ~$1,320M implied (2026) = -21% in two years.

- THE RESTATEMENT: Feb 12, 2026 the Audit Committee investigation was disclosed and the stock fell 39.8% in one session on 23.6M shares. Concluded April 27: revenue OVERSTATED 0.8% in 2023 and 1.1% in 2024 (smaller in 2025). Two 20-Fs and eleven quarterly 6-Ks declared non-reliable. Material weaknesses disclosed. Nasdaq deficiency notice May 19; cured May 27. Q4'25, Q1'26 and Q2'26 all reported in nine weeks.

- WHAT IT COST: 'transaction, integration related and other' was $24.7M in the quarter and $56.1M in H1 vs $12.1M in H1 2025 — investigation costs, out-of-scope audit fees and defence of a putative securities class action, all added back to adjusted earnings. Buyback: $0 in H1 2026 vs $500M in H1 2025; management says it restarts in Q3 — at $163 rather than the $80-120 it sat out.

- BALANCE SHEET: cash $928.4M (from $390.4M), total debt $3.39B, net debt $2.46B = 1.8x adjusted EBITDA. But $1.28B of debt is now CURRENT (from $529.8M). FCF $238.9M in the quarter, $375.1M in H1, $862.0M in 2025. Goodwill $8.72B + intangibles $3.15B = 72% of $16.4B total assets, almost all from the 2021 PRA Health Sciences deal.

- OWNER EARNINGS: guided 2026 adj. EBITDA ~$1,320M, less $95M SBC, $60M recurring restructuring, $15M residual investigation cost, $160M capex and $174M cash interest = $816M pre-tax; taxed at 18% = ~$670M, or ~$8.65/share. At $163.57 that is 18.9x owner earnings. DCF at 7% growth / 9.25% / 2.5% terminal = $127. Bear $67 · Bull $160 · weighted $120; we round to $125.

- REVERSE DCF: at $163.57 enterprise value is $15.1B. At 9.25% and 2.5% terminal growth that price demands ~$1.02B of owner earnings starting now and growing forever — against ~$670M today and ~$895M at the 2024 peak. The price requires 14% ABOVE the pre-restatement peak, permanently.

- QUALITY: backlog $23.4B = 2.8x revenue, +7.3% since December, and on a STRICTER definition — ICON voluntarily cut $3.9B from reported backlog in Oct 2025 by counting inactive/at-risk studies. Top 5 customers 24% of revenue, top 10 40%, top 25 65%. Eight of the top 10 customers by award were mid-size or biotech; 13 wins over $50M from 11 customers; Phase III ~50% of opportunity volume vs ~40% a year ago. 40,200 employees, 99 locations, 55 countries. Multi-year AI collaborations with Anthropic and Microsoft; China revenue expected +20% in 2026.

What to watch: Bullish: gross profit DOLLARS rising year-on-year for two consecutive quarters, direct fee book-to-bill holding >1.2x while direct fee revenue stops falling, and the buyback actually restarting at scale in Q3. Bearish: Q3 adjusted EBITDA below ~$330M, SG&A stepping back up without the promised gross margin recovery, or any further restatement/material-weakness/class-action disclosure. We'd look again nearer ~$120.

Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha

DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

Neogen Corporation (NEOG) Q4 FY2026 — Neogen's fiscal year ends May 31, so the July 30 print is Q4 AND full-year FY2026 — not a calendar Q2. Q4 revenue $225.3M was FLAT (-0.1%), GAAP EPS $(0.05), FY26 revenue -2.7% with a net loss. The stock went $9.40 -> $12.04: about +28% in two sessions, a 12-month high.

Something did improve: core growth hit 4.3%, Food Safety core 5.8% (best since FY23), adjusted gross margin 49.7%, and adjusted EPS of $0.09 beat the ~$0.05 expected. But the FY2027 guide INCLUDES $92M of revenue and $13M of EBITDA from a Genomics division being sold to Zoetis — strip it and the continuing company is SMALLER than FY26 on both lines.

THE CALL: REDUCE (4/5, A REAL TURN, PRICED TWICE OVER) — base-case value ~$6.5 vs ~$12.04 today.

KEY METRICS:

- OUR CALL: REDUCE 4/5 — fair value ~$6.50 vs the $12.04 close (-46%). Street: Hold, ~$11 consensus (4 buy/6 hold/1 sell of 11), range $10-$12 — BELOW the price. Pre-print consensus was ~$7.50, so targets are chasing; William Blair cut to Market Perform the day before the print.

- DCF (217.7M shares): continuing adj. EBITDA ~$168M (FY27 guide $181M less $13M Genomics), less ~$12M/yr recurring 'one-time' costs, 24% tax, less ~$30M capex = FCFF ~$100M. At 9% / 2.5% terminal = $5.60. Bear $2.10 · Bull $10.30 · weighted $5.90; we sit at $6.50 for takeout optionality.

- REVERSE DCF: at $12.04 enterprise value is $3.2B — requiring ~$190M of FCFF starting NOW vs ~$100M today. Our base case never reaches it this decade.

- THE PRINT: Q4 revenue $225.3M (-0.1% reported, CORE +4.3%), adj. gross margin 49.7% (from 46.4%), GAAP $(0.05) vs adjusted $0.09, adj. EBITDA $45.4M (20.2%). FY26: revenue $870.4M (-2.7%, core +1.9%), net loss $(7.9)M, adj. EBITDA $177.8M, adj. EPS $0.32.

- SEGMENTS Q4: Food Safety $166.8M, +5.8% CORE — best since FY23; indicator testing & culture media +9.5%, sanitation +9.9%. Animal Safety $58.5M, -8.2% reported but +0.5% core and +7% sequentially as shortages resolved.

- THE GUIDANCE TRAP: the FY27 guide INCLUDES $92M revenue and $13M EBITDA from Genomics, sold to Zoetis for ~$140M net (for debt). Continuing company ≈ $790M and ~$168M. Q1 FY27: $207-209M and ~$37M. Implied core growth ~3%.

- THE PETRIFILM RISK: the LAST 3M handoff (sample collection) cost $27.4M across FY25-26 and caused two years of Animal Safety shortages. The Petrifilm move to Lansing begins Nov 2026. That line is $332.7M — 38% of revenue. Management sees +200-300bps of gross margin from FY28.

- THE ADD-BACKS: ex-SBC, FY26 add-backs were $75.9M = 43% of adjusted EBITDA — transformation $22.3M, sample collection $12.4M, Petrifilm duplicate mfg $12.0M, transaction $10.6M, restructuring $7.0M. Every one also appeared in FY25.

- BALANCE SHEET: cash $185.5M, debt $793.7M (all non-current), net debt $608.2M = 3.4x. Repaid $100M; interest $68.5M -> $57.6M. Goodwill $1,047M + intangibles $1,318M = 71% of assets, after $1,059M was impaired in FY25.

- CASH FLOW: CFO $83.2M less capex $51.3M = FCF $31.9M — but CFO includes a $38.2M inventory release, so underlying FCF is ~zero. The bull's point: capex went $111.4M -> $104.6M -> $51.3M and just $4.0M in Q4; the Petrifilm plant is built.

- R&D & MANAGEMENT: R&D was $18.4M, DOWN from $21.1M — 2.1% of revenue; it rises ~50% in FY27 toward 5% long term. CEO Mike Nassif started Aug 11, 2025, the week of the 12-month low, so the whole +158% is on his watch. Risk factors still cite material weaknesses in internal controls.

What to watch: Bullish: the Petrifilm SKU validated on time, the November transition starting cleanly, and the Genomics sale clearing the ACCC/NZCC reviews. Bearish: Q1 FY27 adjusted EBITDA below the ~$37M guided, or any shortage traceable to the Petrifilm move. We'd look again nearer ~$7.

Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha

DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

Cameco Corporation (CCJ) Q2 2026 — Cameco reports in CANADIAN dollars and trades in New York in US dollars. Q2 2026: revenue C$814M (-7%), net earnings C$25M / C$0.06 (-92%), adjusted net earnings C$77M / C$0.18 (-75%), adjusted EBITDA C$391M (-42%). In US dollars that adjusted figure is ~$0.13 on ~US$573M. The stock was quoted up ~4% pre-market near $92, opened $90.63, traded to $91.38, reversed to $83.93 and closed $86.38, DOWN 2.10%.

The 92% earnings collapse was almost entirely a comparison, not an operating failure: Q2 2025 included roughly US$170M from Westinghouse's Dukovany contract that did not repeat, and Cameco's 49% share of Westinghouse swung from C$126M of net earnings to a C$10M LOSS. Underneath, the mine had a good quarter — a record average realized price of US$67.79/lb (+18%) and a RAISED full-year revenue guide. But two things the coverage missed. First, Cameco's blended produced-and-purchased cost rose 36% to C$62.21/lb while the realized price rose only 15%, because it bought 2.8M lb at C$91.40 (US$66.60) against a US$67.79 realized price — about a dollar a pound. Roughly a third of what Cameco sells every year it buys, not mines. Second, Cameco materially UPGRADED its AP1000 economics: Westinghouse's share of a two-unit project moved from 25-40% to 40-45%, at ~20% EBITDA margin instead of 10-20%.

THE CALL: REDUCE (3/5, A 2035 PRICE ON A 2026 BUSINESS) — base-case value ~$66.0 vs ~$86.38 today.

KEY METRICS:

- OUR CALL: REDUCE 3/5 — fair value ~US$66 vs the $86.38 close (-24%). Street: Buy, US$134.80 avg (1 strong buy/12 buy/5 hold/2 sell of 20), median $131, range $104-$175 = +56%. We DIFFER: many targets were struck at $100-$134 and have not reset.

- DCF (US$, 435.5M shares, USD/CAD 1.40): owner earnings = consolidated adj. EBITDA incl. 49% of Westinghouse, less capex incl. its Westinghouse share, less cash interest and cash tax = ~US$0.6B in 2026, ~US$1.45B by 2030, ~US$2.0B by 2032. At 9% / 3.5% terminal = $53. Bear $21 · Bull $103 · weighted 25/45/30 = $60. We sit at $66 for the AP1000 repricing, the C$559M CRA deposit and FX.

- REVERSE DCF: at $86.38 the US$37.6B market value (no net debt) requires ~US$2.1B of owner earnings starting NOW, against ~US$0.6B today. Our base case does not reach it until the 2030s.

- THE PRINT (C$): revenue $814M (-7%), gross profit $190M (-26%), net earnings $25M / $0.06 (-92%), adjusted net earnings $77M / $0.18 (-75%), adjusted EBITDA $391M (-42%), cash from operations $131M (-72%). H1 revenue flat at $1,659M.

- URANIUM: sales 7.1M lb (-18%), production 3.9M lb (-15%) on spring road flooding. Realized price US$67.79/lb (+18%) / C$93.13 (+15%). Revenue $659M, EBT $170M, adj EBITDA $252M.

- THE SQUEEZE: produced-and-purchased cost +36% to C$62.21/lb. Produced pounds cost C$41.26; but 2.8M lb were PURCHASED at C$91.40 (US$66.60) vs a US$67.79 realized price. 2026 plan: produce 19.5-21.5M lb, SELL 29-32M lb.

- WESTINGHOUSE (49% share): net LOSS C$10M vs +C$126M; adj EBITDA C$163M vs C$352M. 2026 guide: US$370-430M adj EBITDA but a NET LOSS of US$10-75M — US$275-290M of D&A (mostly 2023 purchase-price amortisation) plus US$120-135M of finance costs.

- AP1000 UPGRADE: Westinghouse share of a 2-unit project 40-45% (was 25-40%) at ~20% EBITDA margin (was 10-20%). On a US$20-26B project that is US$8-11B of revenue and ~US$1.6-2.2B EBITDA per project, plus US$45-60M/yr of service revenue for 80+ years. Pipeline up to 91 units / 105 GWe; core backlog US$13.2B; DOE conditionally committed US$17.5B for up to 10 reactors. 51 of 91 units are still in origination.

- GUIDANCE RAISED: consolidated revenue C$3.32-3.57B (was C$3.13-3.37B); uranium revenue C$2.70-2.91B; realized price C$91-96/lb (was C$85-89); unit cost of sales C$63.00-67.50/lb. Production 19.5-21.5M lb UNCHANGED. FX assumption 1.35 (was 1.33).

- CASH & BALANCE SHEET: H1 adj EBITDA C$899M produced C$109M of operating cash — 12% conversion, on a C$255M working-capital build and higher taxes. Cash C$1.1B vs ~C$1.0B debt, C$1.0B facility undrawn. CRA still holds C$559M; the Supreme Court closed 2003-2006 in Cameco's favour.

- THE MARK: on July 2 Cameco paid C$115.755M for an extra 2.871% of Cigar Lake (stake now 57.418%). That values 100% of the mine at ~C$4.0B / ~US$2.9B — Cameco's share is ~4% of its US$37.6B market cap.

- MARKET: UxC spot US$85.00/lb at June 30; long-term indicator US$95.50/lb, the highest since 2011 in constant dollars. Contract book ~28M lb/yr committed 2026-2030.

What to watch: Bullish: a definitive AP1000 EPC contract in the US converting the DOE's conditional US$17.5B commitment, or 2027 realized price above ~US$74/lb. Bearish: 2027 realized under ~US$72/lb with spot above US$85, Westinghouse 2026 adjusted EBITDA below the US$370M low end, or another half-year converting under a third of EBITDA to cash. We'd buy nearer ~$55.

Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha

DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

Bandwidth Inc. (BAND) Q2 2026 — Revenue $219.9M vs $180.0M (+22.2%), a BEAT vs ~$217.0M consensus. Non-GAAP EPS $0.37 (−2.6% YoY). Adj. EBITDA $27.8M (+26.9%). FY26 guidance RAISED again — and the stock fell 29.3%.

A beat, a raise, and the worst day in company history — and the reason is footnote one. Bandwidth's revenue contains the service AND pass-through messaging surcharges remitted to carriers at ~zero margin: cloud communications revenue was $152M vs $136M, so surcharges were $68M vs $44M (+55%). About 60% of the growth is pass-through — the service grew 11.8%, not 22%. Second: EPS fell only because diluted shares rose 18.0%. Third: the GAAP operating loss WIDENED.

THE CALL: SELL (3/5, A REAL BUSINESS, PRICED FOR THE BULL CASE) — base-case value ~$27 vs ~$39.14 today.

KEY METRICS:

- THE PRINT: Revenue $219.897M vs $180.013M (+22.2%) vs ~$217.0M consensus. Non-GAAP diluted EPS $0.37 vs $0.38 (−2.6%); non-GAAP BASIC EPS ROSE $0.40→$0.42. Adj. EBITDA $27.768M vs $21.890M (+26.9%) — 18.3% of cloud-comms revenue but 12.6% of total (vs 12.2%). GAAP operating loss $(4.553)M vs $(3.748)M — WIDER. GAAP diluted EPS −$0.07 despite $2.387M net income. Opex +10.2%, R&D +17.6%

- THE SURCHARGE MATH: Cloud communications revenue (revenue less pass-through surcharges, footnote 1) $152M vs $136M = +11.8%. Surcharges $68M vs $44M = +55%, 30.9% of revenue vs 24.4%. GAAP gross margin 35.7% vs 39.8% (−4.1pp) — but on the cloud-comms base only 52.7%→51.7%, so ~3pp is the denominator, ~1pp real (COGS intangible amortisation $2.042M→$5.060M). Non-GAAP gross margin ROSE 58.4%→59.4%

- DILUTION + CASH: Non-GAAP diluted shares 31,382,387→37,041,913 (+18.0%); non-vested RSUs 3,515,243 vs ZERO. Guide assumes ~40.5M shares in Q3, ~39.0M FY26. Q2 FCF $23.739M vs $25.631M (−7.4%), OCF −9.3%. H1 FCF $23.157M vs SBC $25.597M → owner earnings −$2.4M. Cash+securities $174.4M vs $330.769M converts = ~$156M net debt; H1 also $21.8M capped call, $20.0M buyback

- VALUATION + THE 2027 COMP: FY26 owner earnings ≈ $124M EBITDA − $29M capex − $33M WC/tax − $55M SBC ≈ $5M. DCF (core +12% fading to +8%, margin 20%→25%, 10.5%, 3% terminal): EV $1.18B − $156M net debt ÷ ~40.5M shares = $25; we publish $27 after part-crediting a 10x EBITDA takeout at $33. Bear $10, bull $41. At $39.14 EV $1.74B = 14.0x FY26E EBITDA. Rule of 40 ≈ 30. ~$62M of political messaging in 2024 — when it lapped, FY25 revenue grew 0.7%. 2026 is a US midterm year

- GUIDE / STREET: FY26 raised to $900–910M revenue / $123–125M adj. EBITDA / $1.71–1.79 EPS; Q3 $231–235M. But the $15M full-year midpoint raise is smaller than the $24M of extra surcharge revenue in Q2 alone; implied H2 growth slows to 19.2% from 21.0%; EPS needs $1.03 in H2 vs $0.72 in H1 (+43%). Street 12 buy/3 hold/1 sell, consensus ~$55.75 ($38–$70) — Needham's $60 was May, B. Riley's $85 landed Jul 9, the day of the $78.44 high

What to watch: Bullish: cloud-communications growth above 15% in October with a flat diluted share count → toward $41. Bearish: core growth under 8%, or diluted shares above 42M → nearer $12. Real buyer ~$24 (≈9x forward EV/EBITDA).

Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha

DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

PTC Inc. (PTC) Q3 FY2026 — Revenue $600.0M vs $643.9M (−7%, −8% cc) — a MISS vs ~$611.6M consensus. Non-GAAP EPS $1.58 vs $1.64 (−4%), a penny ahead. But constant-currency ARR excluding divestitures grew 9.1% to $2.448B, above the 8–9% guide, net new ARR $60M beat, FCF $249M beat — and PTC RAISED FY26 guidance on every line. The stock rose 0.5% the next session to $136.30.

Revenue −7%, ARR +9.1%, same three months — and the revenue line is the one almost everyone quoted. Three things put the hole in it, only one is demand. (1) DIVESTITURES: Kepware and ThingWorx left March 13 for $523.3M net cash and a $462.6M gain, so the year-ago quarter includes two businesses this one does not. (2) ASC 606: PTC's release states that for on-premises license subscriptions 'a substantial portion of the total value of the contract is recognized as revenue at a point in time.' License revenue fell 18.2% ($251.5M → $205.8M, −$45.7M) while support and cloud ROSE 0.3% — that one line more than explains the entire $43.9M decline; the CFO blamed the shortened duration of a single large contract. (3) CURRENCY: revenue fell 8% in constant currency, while ARR grew 9.1% at plan rates but only 7% as reported — and as-reported TOTAL ARR was FLAT. Second under-covered item: the $1.625B FY26 buyback against ~$850M of FCF, with the $775M gap funded by divestiture proceeds plus $225M of new Q3 borrowings (debt $1.197B → $1.423B). That funding does not repeat.

THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, GOOD BUSINESS, FAIR PRICE, NO MARGIN OF SAFETY) — base-case value ~$134 vs ~$137.2 today.

KEY METRICS:

- THE PRINT: Revenue $600.049M vs $643.937M (−7%, −8% cc) vs ~$611.6M consensus. GAAP EPS $1.03 vs $1.17; non-GAAP $1.58 vs $1.64 (−4%) vs ~$1.57. GAAP op margin 27.7% (from 32.6%), non-GAAP 41.4% (from 44.3%), gross margin 81.7%. CC ARR ex-divestitures $2,448M vs $2,245M = +9.1% (guide 8–9%); as-reported ex-div $2,412M vs $2,256M = +7%; as-reported TOTAL ARR flat. Net new ARR $60M. OCF $261M (+7%), FCF $249M (+3%), both above guidance

- THE ASC 606 MATH: License revenue (incl. the subscription portion booked upfront) $205.824M vs $251.479M = −18.2%, a −$45.7M swing against a total revenue decline of only −$43.9M. Support and cloud $370.878M vs $369.867M = +0.3%. Professional services $23.347M (+3.3%). Perpetual license $0.691M vs $7.763M. Total recurring revenue $576.011M vs $613.583M (−6.1%)

- VALUATION: Normalised FY26 FCF = ~$850M guided + ~$50M divestiture costs + ~$100M divestiture cash taxes + ~$11M one-off capex − ~$70M divested-business contribution = ~$941M. Less ~$248M SBC = ~$690M owner earnings. Grow 10% for 5yrs then fade to 4%, 3% terminal, at 9.5%: PV $6.84B + terminal $9.82B = EV $16.66B, less $1.07B net debt, ÷ ~116M shares = $134. At 8.5% $162; at 10.5% $114. Bear $93, bull $170. Reverse DCF: $137.20 asks 10.5% compounding for five years. EV/normalised FCF 18.1x, EV/owner earnings 24.5x, EV/ARR 6.9x. Non-GAAP P/E 16.8x → 22.8x once $2.14/sh of SBC is charged

- GUIDE / BUYBACK / STREET: FY26 cc ARR raised to 9–9.5%, revenue $2.69–2.75B (still −2% to 0%), non-GAAP EPS $7.87–8.42, FCF ~$850M; Q4 net new ARR $79–92M. Buyback ~$1.625B; debt $1.197B → $1.423B; deferred revenue FELL to $712.5M. Street 20/10/3 Buy, avg $171.56 — but July 30 targets: Stifel $165, BMO $164, Piper $157, Barclays $155

What to watch: Bullish: net new ARR above $92M (top of the Q4 guide) in November, plus an FY27 cc ARR guide starting with a 10 or 11 → fair value toward $170. Bearish: net new ARR at/below the $79M floor, an FY27 guide below 9%, or deferred revenue still falling → closer to $95. Real buyer near ~$115 (≈15x normalised FCF).

Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha

DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

Stryker Corporation (SYK) Q2 2026 — Net sales $6.589B (+9.4% reported, +9.0% organic). Adjusted EPS $3.69 vs $3.13 (+17.9%) against ~$3.49 expected — a 20c beat. Adjusted operating margin 27.4%, up 170bps. GAAP EPS $3.30, +44.1%. FY26 guidance NARROWED and the low end RAISED: organic 8.3–9.3% (from 8.0–9.5%) and adjusted EPS $14.95–$15.10 (from $14.90–$15.10). And the stock fell 6.4% the next session, from $348.04 to $325.70.

Stryker beat by 20 cents, raised the bottom of both guidance ranges, expanded adjusted operating margin 170bps — and lost 6.4%. Two numbers explain it. First: the March 11 cyberattack shut Stryker's global manufacturing network for three weeks and, per the 8-K/A filed April 9, deferred or lost roughly $375M of sales. Q2 organic growth was 9.0% — Stryker's normal run rate — so essentially NONE of that $375M was recaptured; management confirmed the order backlog actually INCREASED. Second: the full-year guide now requires H2 reported growth of roughly 10.3–12.2% (last year's H2 was $13.228B; the range implies ~$14.6–14.8B) after the best quarter of the year grew 9.4%. Separately, the +44.1% GAAP EPS is flattered by a $158M ($0.34/share) reversal of 2025 tariff accruals — which is why cost of sales FELL 4.1% on +9.4% sales — against a comp quarter loaded with $55M of impairments and $65M of inventory step-up.

THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, EXCELLENT BUSINESS, PRICED FOR THE RECOVERY) — base-case value ~$317 vs ~$325.7 today.

KEY METRICS:

- Net sales $6.589B vs $6.022B (+9.4% reported, +9.0% organic, essentially all unit volume). U.S. $4.959B (+8.9%); International $1.630B (+11.0%, +9.2% cc). MedSurg & Neurotechnology $3.625B (+9.7%, +9.2% organic); Orthopaedics $2.964B (+9.1%, +8.6% organic). Adjusted operating income $1.807B = 27.4% margin, +170bps from 25.7%. Adjusted EPS $3.69 (+17.9%) vs ~$3.49 consensus

- THE CYBER MATH: March 11 attack (Handala, Iran-linked per press reports) shut global manufacturing ~3 weeks; the 8-K/A filed April 9 said material impact to Q1 and ~$375M of deferred or lost sales. Q1 2026 organic was +2.4% and sales ~$6.020B — at a normal ~9% Q1 would have been ~$6.4B, so the gap ties to the $375M. Q2 organic came in at 9.0%, the normal run-rate, and management said the ORDER BACKLOG INCREASED with record Mako installs — i.e. essentially none of the $375M was recaptured in Q2

- THE GUIDE MATH: FY2025 sales $25.116B, H1 2025 $11.888B, so H2 2025 = $13.228B. H1 2026 = $12.609B, up only 6.1%. FY26 organic guide of 8.3–9.3% implies H2 2026 of roughly $14.6–14.8B = +10.3% to +12.2%, after Q2 delivered 9.4%. On earnings: H1 adjusted EPS $6.29 vs $5.97 (+5.4% only), so the guide implies H2 of $8.66–$8.81 vs $7.66 = +13% to +15%

- THE GAAP FLATTER: GAAP EPS $3.30 grew 44.1% vs adjusted +17.9%. The bridge includes a $158M 'Reversal of 2025 tariffs' worth $0.34/share that is SUBTRACTED to reach adjusted — it is why cost of sales fell 4.1% on +9.4% sales and why reported gross margin was 68.3% vs adjusted 66.0%. The Q2 2025 comp carried $65M inventory step-up, $78M acquisition costs and $55M impairments (GAAP op margin 18.5%). No cyberattack add-back exists anywhere in the reconciliation; 'other charges' inside structural optimization ran $70M in Q2 vs $12M a year ago

- SEGMENT DETAIL & BALANCE SHEET: Medical $1,122M (+13.4%), Trauma & Extremities $1,072M (+11.9%, now the largest Ortho line), Endoscopy $1,004M (+11.7%), Instruments $1,003M (+9.3%), Ortho Tech $717M (+10.3%), Knees $693M (+8.4%, U.S. only +6.2%), Hips $479M (+2.9%), Vascular $496M (−0.7%, U.S. −6.7% on Inari disruption), U.S. Spinal Implants now $0. Cash $3.391B, LT debt $14.192B, net debt ~$10.7B, equity $23.988B. Goodwill + intangibles $25.326B = 53% of $47.930B total assets. H1 OCF $1.842B (+35%), capex $368M, FCF ~$1.474B; FY25 FCF was $4.283B

- VALUATION: owner-earnings DCF on ~$4.8B of FY26 free cash flow growing 10% for five years then 6%, 2.5% terminal, discounted at 8.25% → PV of FCF $49.6B + terminal $83.5B = EV $133.1B, less $10.7B net debt, over 386.0M diluted shares = $317. At 7.5% it is $372; at 9% it is $275. Bear $219, bull $418, probability-weighted $318. Reverse DCF: at $325.70 (EV $136.4B) the market asks for $4.92B of FCF starting now, or 10.4% compounding for five years. Forward P/E 21.7x guided vs a decade in the mid-20s — the multiple looks cheap against an adjusted EPS that added back ~$0.75/yr of amortization (FY25 GAAP $8.40 vs adjusted $13.63, a 38% gap)

What to watch: Bullish: Q3 organic growth above 11% in late October — the level that proves the cyber backlog is converting into shipped revenue rather than sitting in an order book; plus U.S. Vascular returning to growth as the Inari disruption clears and hips back above 4%. Bearish: Q3 organic below 9% (the $375M was permanently lost, not deferred), another quarter of U.S. Vascular declining, or adjusted operating margin failing to hold 27% while 'other charges' keep growing. Real buyer nearer ~$275 (~18x guided earnings).

Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha

DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

Fair Isaac Corporation (FICO) Q3 FY2026 — Revenue $674.2M (+25.7%) but ~$692M expected. Non-GAAP EPS $12.18 vs $8.57 (+42.1%) vs ~$11.97 est. GAAP operating margin 53.8% from 48.9%; 62% non-GAAP. Free cash flow $370.3M (+34.1%). Full-year guidance RAISED to $2.53B revenue and $42.43 non-GAAP EPS. And the stock fell 17.0% the next session, to $1,139.54.

Fair Isaac beat, raised full-year guidance, printed a 62% non-GAAP operating margin and $370M of free cash flow — and lost 17% in one session. Two numbers explain it. First, from the call: mortgage-origination revenue grew 97% while mortgage-origination score VOLUMES grew low single digits — the wholesale score price went from $4.95 to $10.00, and that line is ~42% of the company. Second, subtract the nine months already reported from the raised full-year guide and Q4 implies revenue DOWN 3.3% and non-GAAP EPS down 13.6% sequentially — despite roughly two million fewer shares.

THE CALL: SELL (2/5, GREAT MONOPOLY, RENTED GROWTH) — base-case value ~$870 vs ~$1122.97 today.

KEY METRICS:

- Revenue $674.188M vs $536.415M (+25.7%) — but the Street wanted ~$692M, so revenue MISSED. Scores $458.897M (+41%; B2B +49%, B2C +5%). Software $215.3M (+1.5%). GAAP operating income $362.628M = a 53.8% margin, from 48.9%; 62% non-GAAP vs 57%. Net income $237.172M (+30%), GAAP EPS $10.45 vs $7.40, non-GAAP EPS $12.18 vs $8.57

- THE DISCLOSURE: mortgage-origination revenue +97% while mortgage-origination score volumes rose only low single digits. Management put mortgage at 71% of B2B Scores and 62% of total Scores revenue — roughly $284M, about 42% of the whole company. The wholesale score price went from $4.95 (2025) to $10.00 (2026). Excluding mortgage, FICO grew revenue in the mid-single digits

- THE GUIDE: full-year revenue $2.53B less the $1,877.8M already reported leaves an implied Q4 of $652M, DOWN 3.3% sequentially. Non-GAAP EPS $42.43 less $31.91 leaves $10.52 vs $12.18 (-13.6%); GAAP $8.74 vs $10.45 (-16%). FICO retired 1.75M shares in Q3, so Q4 carries ~2M fewer shares and EPS still falls

- CAPITAL ALLOCATION: 9-month buybacks $3,046.0M against 9-month free cash flow of $750.0M — 4x the cash generated. Net new debt of $2,535M took total debt from $3,056M to $5,582M; cash and securities $305M, so net debt is $5,278M (~4.2x trailing operating profit). Q3 alone: 1.75M shares for $1.96B at an average $1,149 — above Friday's $1,122.97 close. Stockholders' equity is NEGATIVE $4,097M, from -$1,746M nine months ago, which is why P/B and ROE are meaningless here

- SOFTWARE, BOTH SIDES: platform ARR $413M (+62%) passed non-platform ARR ($403M) for the first time, platform net retention 148%, TTM ACV bookings $128M (+39%). But non-platform ARR fell 17% at 82% net retention and non-platform revenue fell 25%, so total Software ARR grew 10% and total Software REVENUE grew 1.5%. Context: on April 22, 2026 the FHFA opened Fannie and Freddie to VantageScore 4.0 (tri-merge retained); Lansing says no volume loss yet

What to watch: Bullish: a calendar-2027 mortgage score price increase that sticks without volume loss (the price has gone $2.75 to $3.50 to $4.95 to $10.00), the Mortgage Direct License Program going live once a GSE certifies it, or 10T adoption past the current ~55% of top-50 originator volume. Bearish: FY27 mortgage revenue growth under ~15%, Software ARR growth below 8%, or the first evidence of actual volume loss to VantageScore 4.0. Real buyer nearer ~$700.

Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha

DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

Ingram Micro Holding Corporation (INGM) Q2 2026 — Net sales $14,531.1M (+13.6%), above the high end of guidance. Non-GAAP diluted EPS $0.82 vs $0.61 (+34.4%) vs ~$0.74 est. Adjusted EBITDA $355.8M (+21.0%). Adjusted ROIC 8.4% to 10.8%. Dividend raised to $0.086. And adjusted free cash flow was NEGATIVE $527.3M. The stock closed at $28.21, DOWN 7.2%.

Ingram Micro beat on every line it guides to — net sales, gross profit, operating income and EPS all above the high end — and fell 7.2%. The reason is one number nobody quoted: cash used in operating activities was $533.2M in the quarter and $1,511.1M in the half. Roll it to twelve months off the company's own statements and trailing free cash flow is NEGATIVE $231.6M. The earnings are real. The cash is sitting in a $1.05B inventory build.

THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, RECORD EARNINGS, RENTED CASH FLOW) — base-case value ~$27.5 vs ~$28.21 today.

KEY METRICS:

- Net sales $14,531.1M (+13.6%, ~12.6% ex-FX), above the high end of guidance, all four regions growing. Gross profit $958.7M (+14.2%) but gross margin only 6.60% vs 6.56% — +4bps, of which 5bps was currency. Adjusted EBITDA $355.8M (+21.0%); adjusted income from operations $280.4M (+39.6%)

- The entire operating gain is SG&A leverage: 5.44% of sales to 4.92%, ~52bps worth ~$76M, against a $79.6M rise in adjusted operating income. Non-GAAP diluted EPS $0.82 vs $0.61; GAAP EPS $0.48 vs $0.16 (prior year carried $43.2M of held-for-sale write-downs)

- Cash used in operations $533.2M; adjusted FCF -$527.3M in the quarter and -$1,489.7M in the half. TTM free cash flow, derived from the filings, is -$231.6M. Inventory $4,970.1M to $6,020.1M (+21.1%); cash $1,864.7M to $809.0M; short-term debt $449.6M to $1,236.8M on a $812.8M net revolver draw

- Regional gross margins: Latin America 10.32%, EMEA 7.63%, North America 6.88%, Asia-Pacific 4.47%. Asia-Pacific grew sales 27.1% (Advanced Solutions +51% on GPU and AI-infrastructure) and went from 27.2% to 30.4% of the company — the AI revenue is landing in the thinnest-margin region and diluting the blend

- Q3 2026 guide: net sales $13,550-13,950M (+7.5% to +10.7%, but -5.4% sequentially at the midpoint), gross profit $910-955M (~6.78% margin, guided UP), non-GAAP diluted EPS $0.72-0.82 — the high end merely matches Q2. Net debt $2,986.5M; adjusted ROIC 10.8% vs 8.4%

What to watch: Bullish: H2 free cash flow converting — a full-year FCF-positive 2026 despite the first-half burn, with gross margin holding the guided ~6.78%. Bearish: a third straight negative-FCF quarter, consolidated gross margin back below 6.5% as Asia-Pacific mix grows, or another large Platinum sell-down. Size buyer nearer ~$22.

Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha

DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

GoDaddy Inc. (GDDY) Q2 2026 — Revenue $1,298.0M (+6.6%), top of guidance. Diluted EPS $1.83 vs $1.41 (+30%) vs ~$1.69 est. Operating income $342.5M (+28.6%), a record 26.4% margin. FCF $443.5M, and the ~$1.8B FY26 target reaffirmed. The stock closed at $82.74, DOWN 16.7%.

GoDaddy beat, posted a record margin, generated $443.5M of free cash flow and reaffirmed $1.8B — and lost a sixth of its value in a session. Two things did it: FY26 guidance narrowed to a midpoint just under consensus, and total customers grew only 22,000 in the quarter, 35,000 in six months, on a base of 20.5 million.

THE CALL: ACCUMULATE (3/5, PRICED FOR A DECLINE THAT HASN'T STARTED) — base-case value ~$94.0 vs ~$82.74 today.

KEY METRICS:

- Revenue $1,298.0M (+6.6%, +6.3% cc), top of the $1.285-1.305B guide. A&C $514.8M (+11.0%); Core Platform $783.2M (+3.9%); International $427.1M (+7.9%). Bookings $1,422.1M (+5.7%) — A&C bookings slowed 9% to 7% against an EASIER comp

- Diluted EPS $1.83 vs $1.41 (+30%) vs ~$1.69 est; net income $240.1M (+20.1%). EPS beat net income by 10pts purely on buybacks: 9.8M shares for $851.8M YTD, diluted shares down 7% since January to 127M (>95% of FCF to buybacks for 4 years)

- Operating income $342.5M (+28.6%), a record 26.4% margin (+450bps) — BUT D&A fell $30.6M to $13.3M and stock comp $81.0M to $70.2M, together ~37% of the $76.2M gain. The honest number is NEBITDA +13.7% to $434.1M (33.4%)

- THE NUMBER NOBODY MENTIONED: 20.5M customers, +22,000 in the quarter and +35,000 in six months (~0.17% annualised). ARPU +8.7% to $250 did all the work. Never cited on the call; none of the 11 analysts asked. Retention >85% and improving

- AIRO CANNIBALISES AS IT SCALES: run rate $50M, 5x last quarter's $10M — but the CFO put the drag at 'about a point to our TOTAL bookings'. ~100bps destroyed while Airo is ~0.9% of a ~$5.7B bookings run rate. Do It For You was '~a couple thousand dollars'; Airo is subscription+tokens, 'a smaller number'

- THE TAX SHIELD NOBODY ASKED ABOUT: H1 tax provision $144.2M but deferred taxes added back $130.8M — roughly $13M of CASH tax on $598.9M pre-tax (~2%). The deferred tax asset fell $1,052.6M to $912.6M in six months; spent in ~3.5 years, costing ~$270M/yr of FCF

- GUIDANCE: Q3 $1.315-1.335B (+5%, toughest aftermarket comp); FY26 narrowed to $5.215-5.255B (+6%) vs ~$5.242B consensus; FCF ~$1.8B reaffirmed. Asked to time the Airo transition: 'not putting a timetable on this' — deferred to a 1 Dec Investor Night. Net debt $2,661.4M (1.4x); equity is $6.7 MILLION on $8.0B of assets

- OUR OWNER-EARNINGS BRIDGE: $1.80B guided FCF, less $291M of stock comp, less ~$270M of normalised cash tax = $1.24B — $9.76/share, an 11.8% yield at $82.74 AFTER both haircuts

- OUR DCF at 10.5%, 127.0M diluted shares, $2.66B net debt: bear $48, base $94, bull $160; weighted 30/50/20 = ~$93, so we sit at ~$94, about 14% above the close. REVERSE DCF: at $82.74 the EV is $13.17B, which against $1.24B of owner earnings implies 1.1% growth FOREVER — from a company guiding +6%. EV/FCF 7.3x, FCF yield 17.1%

- STREET: Buy (22 buy/15 hold/1 sell, 38 analysts). Fast revisers on 31 July average $94.29 ($80-$100): Wells Fargo $80, Cantor $90, Piper/Evercore $95, Raymond James DOWNGRADED at $100, William Blair DOWNGRADED. Slower movers at $110-$170 drag the quoted average to ~$112. We AGREE with the fast revisers, CAUTIOUS on the stale average

What to watch: Bullish: total customers growing again (>100k net adds) with A&C bookings back above 9%. Bearish: the Airo bookings drag widening past 200bps, Core revenue turning negative, or a cut to the $1.8B FCF target. Size buyer nearer ~$70.

Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha

DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

Guardant Health, Inc. (GH) Q2 2026 — Q2 2026 = the three months ended 30 June 2026, reported after the close on 30 July. Revenue $334.98M vs $232.09M (+44.3%) vs ~$314M consensus; non-GAAP loss $0.42/sh vs ~$0.75 expected. Shield revenue $52.9M on ~66,000 tests from $14.8M and ~16,000. FY26 guidance RAISED to $1.34-1.36B. Stock +6.3% to $161.99.

Guardant Health grew revenue 44%, quadrupled Shield screening volume and raised every line of guidance — and the stock has already tripled. Our model says AVOID.

THE CALL: AVOID (3/5, EXCEPTIONAL COMPANY, IMPOSSIBLE PRICE) — base-case value ~$100.0 vs ~$161.99 today.

KEY METRICS:

- Revenue $334.98M vs $232.09M (+44.3%), above the ~$314M consensus. Oncology $219.1M (+38%) on ~104,000 tests (+63%); Biopharma & Data $60.9M (+9%); Screening $52.9M vs $14.8M (+257%) on ~66,000 Shield tests vs ~16,000

- THE EPS TRAP: GAAP loss was $0.90/sh (vs $0.80 LY), but the figure analysts modelled is the NON-GAAP loss of $0.42 vs about $0.75 expected — a clear beat. The gap is $62.4M of stock comp. Feeds flashing a 'miss' compare a GAAP actual to a non-GAAP estimate

- COST OF THE GROWTH: opex of $348.1M EXCEEDED the $335.0M of revenue. S&M $190.0M (+58.8%, 57% of revenue) grew far faster than the top line; R&D $96.5M; G&A $61.7M. Operating loss $129.1M, net loss $120.1M, adj. EBITDA -$55.9M, FCF -$69.5M. Gross margin 65% GAAP / 67% non-GAAP

- GUIDANCE RAISED ON EVERY LINE: FY26 revenue $1.34-1.36B (+36-38%) from $1.30-1.32B. Shield volume 270-285k tests from 230-245k; screening revenue $218-230M from $186-198M; oncology volume ~+50% from ~35%. FCF burn $195-205M (raised) vs $233M in 2025

- THE CATCH NOBODY FLAGGED: 1H26 free-cash burn was $140.7M, so the FY guide leaves only $54-64M for the ENTIRE second half — quarterly burn must fall from ~$70M to ~$30M immediately, while management says lab capacity investment is ACCELERATING

- BALANCE SHEET: $1.053B cash plus $114.3M restricted = $1.17B, roughly six years of runway — no financing cliff. Against $1.503B of convertible notes = ~$335M net debt. Liabilities $2.14B exceed assets $1.91B: stockholders' DEFICIT $222.9M, accumulated deficit $3.23B

- WHAT RE-RATED IT: Shield added to American Cancer Society colorectal screening guidelines; UnitedHealth the first major commercial payer (from 1 Aug 2026); FDA approval of Guardant360 Liquid CDx and of a lower-COGS Shield workflow. The stock is up ~295% in twelve months

- OUR VALUATION (no owner-earnings DCF — GH burns cash): opex must fall from 81% of revenue to under ~68%; operating break-even FY2028, FCF-positive FY2029. Three-scenario DCF on ~145M diluted shares: bear $38 / base $85 / bull $160 at 10%; weighted $92. We publish ~$100 vs $161.99 = -38%

- REVERSE DCF: at $161.99 the enterprise value is $22.0B — 16x FY26E revenue, 12.9x FY27E. At a 10% discount and 3.5% terminal growth that price demands $1.43B of free cash flow STARTING NOW, against -$0.20B today; our base case doesn't reach it until 2035

- STREET: Buy (29 buy / 0 hold / 1 sell, 30 analysts), average target $178.73, range $120-$210 = about +10%. Stifel raised to $180 from $130 post-print; Bernstein $200 and BTIG $190 on the UnitedHealth news. We DIFFER on the rating and are far more CAUTIOUS on the number

What to watch: Bullish: Q3 free cash burn better than -$35M validates the guide and pulls our profitability path forward a year. Bearish: Shield revenue/test below ~$800, or any trim to the 270-285k volume guide. We'd start buying near $95.

Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha

DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.