Charged Alpha Stock Encyclopedia

Charged Alpha Stock Encyclopedia

By Colton ThomasBusinessInvesting
Download on the App Store

Charged Alpha Stock Encyclopedia episodes

  • REX Stock Q2 2026: REX American Resources Earnings - Record EPS, Zero Extra Gallons Sold
    REX American Resources Corporation (REX) Fiscal Q2 2026 — Fiscal Q2 2026 (13 weeks ended July 31; the 8-K hit EDGAR at 09:44 ET on Wednesday September 2, a before-the-open print, so September 2 is the reaction session): diluted EPS $1.06 vs $0.22 a year ago, gross profit $53.3 million vs $14.3 million. The stock opened $39.99, a 4.76 pct gap down from the $41.99 prior close, then reversed intraday to close $42.80, up 1.93 pct on the session.
    REX American Resources just posted the best earnings per share in its history and sold exactly as much ethanol as it did a year ago - 70.6 million gallons both quarters, not one gallon more. Nearly half of the $39.0 million improvement in gross profit is Section 45Z production tax credit income that did not exist in these accounts a year ago, and the statute retires it after fuel produced in 2029. Our call is bearish at $42.80, fair value $31.76.
    THE CALL: BEARISH (3/5, MODERATE - GOOD BUSINESS, SUBSIDY-INFLATED PRINT) — base-case value ~$31.76 vs ~$42.80 today.
    KEY METRICS:
    - CALL: BEARISH / AVOID, 3/5. Fair value $31.76 vs the $42.80 close - a sum-of-parts of cash, six ethanol plants, and a tax credit with a statutory end date, each valued separately because each has a different lifespan. Strip the cash and the credit and the market is paying about 18x normalized earnings at what looks like the top of the crush-margin cycle.
    - THE RECORD DIDN'T COME FROM VOLUME: consolidated gallons of ethanol sold were 70.6 million in Q2 2026 and 70.6 million in Q2 2025 - identical. The average selling price per gallon moved from $1.75 to $1.78, under 2 pct. Neither volume nor price explains the quarter.
    - THE $39.0M GROSS-PROFIT INCREASE SPLITS INTO EXACTLY THREE PIECES: $18.4 million of production tax credit income (47 pct), $10.6 million from lower cost of sales (corn got cheaper), and $9.9 million of additional product revenue - mostly distillers corn oil, up from $0.54 to $0.72/lb. The true credit contribution is higher once you count the $6.3 million jump in equity income from REX's four unconsolidated plants.
    - INCOME ISN'T CASH YET: the $18.4 million credit sits in other assets on the balance sheet, which grew $22.3 million over six months against $26.0 million of credit booked - about six-sevenths still a receivable. Six-month net income of $62.3 million produced only $38.0 million of operating cash flow; after $35.0 million of capex, six-month free cash flow was about $3 million.
    - THE BALANCE SHEET IS THE STRONGEST PART: $379.5 million of cash and short-term investments at July 31, no bank debt, even after funding $191.2 million of the One Earth expansion and carbon-capture project entirely from cash on hand (budget $220-230 million).
    - THE EPS HISTORY PROVES THE CALL: filed annual diluted EPS ran $1.57, $1.73, $1.65 across three prior fiscal years - a tight 16-cent band through very different corn and ethanol prices. Strip the 45Z credit recognized through the tax line and the year to January 2026 lands back at about $1.68, inside the same band. The breakout year and the arrival of the credit are the same event. Only one Wall Street firm covers the stock, with a price target last set in August 2024, before the credit ever touched these accounts.
    What to watch: UP: the Section 45Z credit rate (production tax credit income divided by gallons sold) holds near this quarter's ~26 cents/gallon in Q3 rather than reverting toward Q1's ~11 cents, proving it is a run rate and not a catch-up. DOWN: the ~$22 million of accrued credit sitting in other assets keeps climbing instead of converting to cash, or the EPA's draft Class VI injection-well permits stall in the comment period.
    Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha
    DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.
    13 min
  • SWBI Stock: The 32% Quarter Its Own Guidance Says Will Not Repeat | Q1 FY2027
    Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc. (SWBI) Q1 FY2027 — It trades near $13.98 since the print, up about 13.9% from the $12.27 close the session before - though still roughly 16% below the $16.67 high it set in June.
    Smith & Wesson grew net sales 32.3% to $112.6 million and swung from an $0.08 loss to $0.06 of earnings, beating a Street that had modelled a loss. But the entire gross-margin expansion was a $2.9 million non-recurring tariff refund - ex-refund, margin went from 25.9% to 26.1%, twenty basis points on a third more revenue. Handgun units shipped into the sporting-goods channel rose 16.7% while end demand, measured by adjusted background checks, rose 4.7%. Inventory rose $24.4 million. And the company's own +5-7% full-year guide requires the back half - 60% of the fiscal year - to fall.
    THE CALL: AVOID (2/5, LOW) — base-case value ~$9.75 vs ~$13.98 today.
    KEY METRICS:
    - Net sales $112.587M, +32.3% YoY, roughly 14% above consensus; diluted EPS $0.06 vs a modelled loss of ~$0.055
    - GAAP and non-GAAP EPS are identical this quarter - the relocation adjustment is zero, so there is no adjusted measure doing quiet work
    - Gross margin 28.7% vs 25.9%, but a $2.9M non-recurring IEEPA tariff refund is ~260bp of that; ex-refund margin was 26.1%, the company's own figure
    - Handgun units into the sporting-goods channel +16.7% vs adjusted background-check demand of +4.7%; long guns +21.7% vs +10.1%
    - Inventory +$24.4M in one quarter to $180.7M, with management guiding a further build through Q2
    - Free cash flow -$20.8M (operating -$8.8M, capex $11.9M); $20M net revolver draw, cash $28.2M to $18.7M
    - FY2027 guide of +5-7% on FY2026's $523.8M implies H2 revenue of $300-311M against $314.1M last year - down 1.1% to 4.4%
    - FY2027 capex guided $45-50M vs $23.7M in FY2026, against a dividend costing ~$23.3M a year
    - Lake Street Capital Markets Buy, $16.50 target (18 June 2026) vs our fair value $9.75
    What to watch: a second quarter beating the guided +10% with inventory flat or falling, gross margin above 27% with no refund inside it, or any raise to the +5-7% full-year revenue range
    Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha
    DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.
    15 min
  • DOCU Stock: The Tax Bill That Ate The Quarter | Docusign Q2 FY2027
    Docusign (DOCU) Q2 FY2027 — It has added about 1.3% since the print, from a $65.97 close to roughly $66.80 in extended-hours trade.
    Operating income rose $52.4M year on year to $117.6M - a 13.4% GAAP margin against 8.1%, the best operating quarter Docusign has reported. Net income rose only $14.7M. Interest income fell $4.1M because the cash that earned it has gone into buybacks, and the tax provision rose $33.8M, from $13.5M to $47.3M - a 17.6% effective rate to 37.8%. Four fifths of that provision is non-cash: the cash-flow statement adds back $37.8M of deferred tax, and the non-current deferred tax asset falls $835.2M to $764.3M over six months. It is the FY2025 valuation-allowance release being repaid on paper.
    THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, MODERATE) — base-case value ~$67 vs ~$66.8 today.
    KEY METRICS:
    - Revenue $875.7M, +9.4% YoY (about 1.3pts of it currency); GAAP gross margin 79.7% vs 79.3%
    - GAAP operating income $117.6M, +80.3%; margin 13.4% vs 8.1%. Non-GAAP operating margin 31.6% vs 29.8%
    - GAAP diluted EPS $0.40 vs $0.30; non-GAAP diluted EPS $1.16 vs $0.92; diluted shares 193.1M vs 211.0M (-8.5%)
    - Tax provision $47.3M vs $13.5M - a 37.8% effective rate vs 17.6%. $37.8M of it is non-cash deferred tax (~80%)
    - Deferred tax assets fell $835.2M to $764.3M in six months, matching the $70.8M six-month deferred charge
    - Free cash flow $295.8M, a 34% margin vs 27%; first-half FCF $585.2M vs $445.5M
    - Buybacks $306.5M in the quarter, $624.0M in the half; cash and investments $973.1M, no borrowings
    - IAM was 15.1% of total ARR at 31 July vs 12.6% at 30 April; guided to 18-19% exiting Q4 FY2027
    - Guidance raised: Q3 revenue $886-890M; FY2027 revenue $3,499-3,507M (+9%); ARR growth 8.50-9.00%
    What to watch: Q3 non-GAAP operating margin above 32% with revenue at or above the $890M top end (upgrade), or FCF margin under 30% for two quarters or any cut to the full-year revenue guide (downgrade)
    Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha
    DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.
    14 min
  • GWRE Stock: Guidewire Q4 FY2026 Earnings — A Beat, Then a 15% Drop
    Guidewire (GWRE) Q4 FY2026 — Shares finished at $202.86 the session the print landed after, and have traded near $171.14 since — down about 15.6%.
    Guidewire beat on both lines and closed its best fiscal year ever — revenue up 22.7%, GAAP operating income up from $41M to $150M, subscription gross margin from 68% to 74% — and then guided fiscal 2027 to about 102 basis points of adjusted margin expansion against the 572 it just delivered, on 16% growth instead of 23%.
    THE CALL: BEARISH (2/5, LOW-MODERATE) — base-case value ~$138.38 vs ~$171.14 today.
    KEY METRICS:
    - Q4 revenue $411.1M, +15.3% YoY; FY2026 revenue $1,475.4M, +22.7%
    - Q4 subscription & support $266.7M, +32.1%, gross margin 74.0% vs 68.0%
    - Q4 license revenue $77.1M, -17.7% YoY, at a 99.3% gross margin
    - Q4 services gross profit -$4.2M, a loss, vs +$1.8M a year ago
    - Q4 GAAP operating income $62.3M (15.2%) vs $29.6M (8.3%); non-GAAP $111.3M (27.1%)
    - Q4 GAAP diluted EPS $0.38 vs $0.60; non-GAAP $0.99 vs a $0.93 consensus bar
    - FY2026 non-GAAP operating margin 23.04% vs 17.32% — +572 basis points
    - FY2027 guide: revenue $1,707-1,727M (+16.4% mid), non-GAAP operating income $403-423M (~+102 bps)
    - Q1 FY2027 revenue guide $372-378M = +11.8% to +13.6% on Q1 FY2026's $332.6M
    - ARR $1,242M +19% cc; fully ramped ARR $1,578M — a $336M signed-but-not-yet-billing gap
    - FY2026 buyback $606.3M (4,085,350 shares at $148.41) against $181.8M of stock comp; diluted count -0.6%
    - Our fair value $146.16 vs ~$171.14 since the print (bear $85.22 / base $138.38 / bull $222.68)
    - Wall Street median target $210 across 11 dated marks, every one set before this print
    What to watch: Q1 FY2027 services gross profit returns to positive while subscription revenue still grows near 28%, and ARR lands at or above the top of the $1,253-1,259M guide
    Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha
    DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.
    13 min
  • EGAN Stock: Up 3%, And Four Sequential Declines | eGain Q4 FY2026
    eGain Corporation (EGAN) Q4 FY2026 — It traded down roughly 24% after the print, from a $7.11 close to about $5.43 in extended hours - through its 12-month closing low of $6.11.
    eGain's release is headlined "Total Revenue Up 3%". Inside that year, revenue fell sequentially in all four quarters - $23.51M, $22.98M, $22.50M, $22.15M - and the September-quarter guide midpoint of $21.15M makes it five. Management then guided fiscal 2027 revenue to $84.5-86.0M, BELOW the year just reported, with adjusted EBITDA of $0.65-1.4M against $13.6M delivered and a GAAP net loss. Subtract the Q1 guide from the full-year guide and the remaining nine months are guided to between minus $1.25M and zero.
    THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, MODERATE) — base-case value ~$5.15 vs ~$5.43 today.
    KEY METRICS:
    - Q4 FY2026 revenue $22.15M, down 4.7% YoY; non-GAAP EPS $0.08 (GAAP $0.05); adjusted EBITDA $2.17M at a 9.8% margin vs 19.2%
    - FY2026 revenue $91.1M (+3%) - but quarterly revenue fell sequentially all four quarters: $23.51M, $22.98M, $22.50M, $22.15M
    - FY2027 guide: revenue $84.5-86.0M (BELOW FY2026), adjusted EBITDA $0.65-1.4M vs $13.6M, and a GAAP net loss of $2.0-3.0M
    - Q1 FY2027 EBITDA is guided at $1.4-1.9M - larger than the entire year's $0.65-1.4M, leaving minus $1.25M to zero for the other nine months
    - The $21.2M of FY2026 operating cash flow includes an $8.4M receivables drawdown (DSO ~129 to ~100 days); underlying generation is ~$12.8M
    - Deferred revenue fell 3.9% to $48.5M - the forward book was already thinning before the guide
    - $73.3M cash, ZERO debt, 26.172M shares; $11.5M of stock retired in FY2026 at a $7.16 average
    - Gartner named eGain a Leader in the inaugural Customer Service Knowledge Management MQ, 16 July 2026
    - Coverage is two analysts; the compiled FY2027 consensus of $93.2M revenue and $0.41 EPS predates this guide. No published price target could be sourced
    What to watch: a September-quarter revenue print below $20.9M, or any reduction to the $84.5-86.0M full-year range at the first quarter that tests it
    Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha
    DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.
    14 min
  • ASAN Stock: Asana Beat, Raised Guidance, and Fell 11% (Q2 FY2027)
    Asana (ASAN) Q2 FY2027 — Shares closed at $10.09 the session the print landed, then traded down to about $8.95 since the release.
    Asana beat its own Q2 FY2027 guidance and raised the full-year outlook — and the stock fell about 11% since the release. The reason sits four lines above the profit: cost of revenues grew 50% against revenue growth of 10%, gross margin fell from 89.7% to 86.0%, and management guided next quarter's operating margin DOWN in the quarter AI ships to every paid tier.
    THE CALL: HOLD (2/5, LOW-MODERATE) — base-case value ~$7.60 vs ~$8.95 today.
    KEY METRICS:
    - Revenue $216.4M, +9.9% YoY — above the top of company guidance
    - Cost of revenues $30.3M, +50% YoY; gross margin 86.0% vs 89.7%
    - Incremental gross margin on new revenue: 48.2%
    - Non-GAAP operating income $21.8M (10.1% margin) vs 7.1% a year ago
    - GAAP net loss $39.2M, $(0.17)/sh; non-GAAP diluted EPS $0.10 vs $0.09 consensus
    - Stock-based compensation $56.3M — 26.0% of revenue
    - Adjusted free cash flow $42.3M (19.6% margin); net cash ~$303M
    - Dollar-based net retention 97% overall, 98% core, 98% for $100k+ accounts
    - 14.8M shares repurchased in 1H at an average of $6.52
    - Q3 guide: revenue $217-219M (+8-9%), non-GAAP operating margin 8-9%, EPS $0.08
    - FY2027 guide: revenue $858.5-863.5M (+9%), non-GAAP operating margin ~10%, EPS $0.37
    What to watch: Gross margin holds at or above 86% while Agentic Work Management reaches every paid tier, and net retention crosses 100%
    Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha
    DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.
    15 min
  • MOMO Stock: Hello Group Now Trades Below Its Own Cash (Q2 2026)
    Hello Group (MOMO) Q2 2026 — Shares closed down 7.1% to $5.10 the session the print landed, a new 12-month low.
    Hello Group's market value has fallen below its liquid cash. At $5.10 an ADS the company carries $8.04 a share in cash and deposits and effectively no debt, which puts enterprise value at roughly NEGATIVE $460 million. The Q2 print is the first one that lets you audit both halves of why: what it costs to get that cash out of China, and whether the operating business underneath it is worth anything at all.
    THE CALL: BULLISH (3/5, MODERATE) — base-case value ~$8.70 vs ~$5.10 today.
    KEY METRICS:
    - Net revenues RMB2,486.0M (US$366.4M), -5.1% YoY
    - Chinese mainland revenue -16.7%; overseas revenue +52.0% to RMB672.7M
    - Overseas now 27.1% of revenue, up from 16.9% a year ago
    - Income from operations RMB238.0M, -41.0% YoY; operating margin 15.4% to 9.6%
    - GAAP diluted RMB1.52 (US$0.22) per ADS; non-GAAP RMB1.75 (US$0.26)
    - The profit swing is the absence of last year's RMB547.9M WFOE withholding tax accrual
    - Cash, deposits and short-term investments RMB8,542.4M (US$1,259.0M); total borrowings RMB3.5M
    - Momo app paying users 3.5M to 3.9M; Tantan 0.7M to 0.5M
    - Buyback: 68.0M ADSs for US$424.1M at an average $6.22; only US$62.0M of authorization left
    - Q3 2026 guide RMB2.4-2.5B, a 5.7% to 9.4% decline - steeper than Q2's 5.1%
    What to watch: The board re-authorizes the share repurchase program before the remaining $62.0M runs out, and overseas revenue growth holds above 30% year over year
    Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha
    DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.
    15 min
  • ELVR Stock: The $44 Million Profit That Was Also A $44 Million Loss | FY2026
    Elevra Lithium Limited (ELVR) FY2026 — Shares fell about 4% the first session after the results reached the market and have kept sliding since, down nearly 8% from before the print.
    Elevra Lithium posted its first full-year profit ever, $44 million. The same year, net cash from operating activities was negative $44 million - the identical number, the opposite direction. Most of the headline profit is two non-cash entries, a $156 million impairment reversal and a $33 million merger accounting gain, while underlying EBITDA was just $14 million and the $255 million cash balance came almost entirely from a dilutive equity raise, not from selling lithium.
    THE CALL: SELL (2/5, CAUTIOUS) — base-case value ~$15 vs ~$56.78 today.
    KEY METRICS:
    - Revenue $202M, +39% YoY, on realized price +57% to $1,092/dmt; sales volume -13% to 181,494 dmt
    - Underlying EBITDA +$14M (vs -$43M FY25); profit after tax +$44M (vs -$247M FY25)
    - Profit driven by a $156M non-cash impairment reversal + $33M merger bargain-purchase gain, partly offset by $104M of non-cash merger accounting charges
    - Net cash from operating activities -$44M (vs -$10M FY25) - the same magnitude as the profit, opposite sign
    - Cash balance $255M, up $208M, almost entirely from a $202M equity raise plus Piedmont cash absorbed in the merger
    - Unit operating cost (FOB) $853/dmt, +2% YoY; FY27 guide $880-950/dmt on 198-210k dmt production
    - Audited net assets $727M vs a market value near $4.02B (5.9x); fair value $15 vs a $56.78 price
    What to watch: another year of negative operating cash flow, a second dilutive raise, or realized lithium price sliding back toward last year's $694/dmt
    Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha
    DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.
    14 min
  • PATH Stock: It Cut Its Own Dilution In Half. The Stock Fell 8% Anyway Q2 FY2027
    UiPath, Inc. (PATH) Q2 FY2027 — Shares fell roughly 7.7% to $16.81 in early trading after UiPath posted its first GAAP operating profit in a Q2, cut stock-based comp 42% year over year, and disclosed a leadership reshuffle alongside the softest net-new-ARR quarter in this data.
    UiPath spent three straight fiscal years posting a GAAP operating loss. This quarter it posted a $32 million operating profit, cut its own stock-based compensation nearly in half year over year, and for the first time the buyback actually shrank the diluted share count. The stock still fell about 8% in after-hours trading, because the print also carried the softest bookings quarter in this data and a three-way leadership reshuffle in the same release.
    THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, MODERATE) — base-case value ~$15.13 vs ~$16.81 today.
    KEY METRICS:
    - Revenue $410.3M, +13% Y/Y; GAAP operating income $31.6M vs a $20.2M loss a year ago
    - Stock-based comp $45.0M vs $78.0M a year ago, -42% Y/Y; 11.0% of revenue vs 21.6%
    - Diluted weighted-average shares 523.0M vs 542.9M a year ago, -3.7% Y/Y
    - H1 buyback $268.5M vs $329.1M a year ago; treasury stock +$258.9M in six months
    - ARR $1.938B, +12% Y/Y; net new ARR only $37M; net retention 109%
    - Non-GAAP operating income $89.0M, 22% margin, +43% Y/Y; non-GAAP diluted EPS flat at $0.15
    - $1.405B cash and marketable securities, no interest-bearing debt
    - Leadership reshuffle: COO narrows mandate, deputy CFO promoted to CFO, new board member added
    - Street average target $16.50 across 4 firms with a live number vs our fair value $15.13
    What to watch: Net new ARR back above $50 million AND stock-based comp held under 15% of revenue for two more quarters would move the call toward a buy; a slide back toward last year's SBC intensity or continued sub-$40M net new ARR would not.
    Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha
    DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.
    15 min
  • AMBA Stock: The $9 Million Credit That Halved A Loss | Q2 FY2027
    Ambarella, Inc. (AMBA) Q2 FY2027 — It fell roughly 3.4% in after-hours trading after the print, on top of a slide from a 12-month high near $95.51 down into the low sixties.
    Ambarella's reported net loss narrowed 68% year over year, from $(0.47) to $(0.15) per share. But a one-time $9.0 million credit released from R&D after a cancelled project is worth $0.20 of that improvement - restated, the loss only narrowed 23%. Meanwhile gross margin, the honest read on the actual chip business, fell on both GAAP and non-GAAP bases for a fifth straight year, even as revenue grew 13.2%.
    THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, MODERATE) — base-case value ~$57 vs ~$61.24 today.
    KEY METRICS:
    - Revenue $108.1M, +13.2% YoY; non-GAAP EPS $0.18 beat; GAAP diluted loss $(0.15)/sh
    - A $9.0M one-time R&D credit (cancelled-project deposit release) is worth $0.20/sh - ex-credit, the loss narrowed 23%, not the reported 68%
    - GAAP gross margin 57.7% vs 58.9% a year ago; non-GAAP 59.3% vs 60.5% - both down 120bp, fifth straight year of decline
    - Incremental gross margin on new revenue is only 49%, against a 57.7% company average
    - Revenue is $0.3M below its level three quarters ago - four quarters effectively flat around $104M/quarter
    - $272.3M cash + securities, zero debt ($6.15/sh); inventory +47.2% in six months to 153 days of COGS
    - Street average price target $101.75 (all pre-print) vs our fair value $57
    What to watch: adjusted gross margin falling back under 59%, another inventory build without matching revenue growth, or an October revenue print at the low end of guidance
    Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha
    DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.
    15 min

About Charged Alpha Stock Encyclopedia

From the publisher's feed

⚡ Charged Alpha — The S&P 500 Stock Encyclopedia Data-driven deep dives into every stock in the S&P 500 after every earnings report. Each episode breaks down one company from open to close:…