Charged Alpha Stock Encyclopedia

Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacífico (PAC) Q2 2026 — Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacífico (GAP), the Mexican airport operator, grew Q2 2026 EBITDA 8.4% to a record 69% margin and net income 9% — even as passenger traffic fell 5.6% — but the stock was labeled an earnings 'miss' because per-share profit fell ~7% after it issued ~90M shares (+17.7%) to buy full control of the CBX border bridge. The ADR was roughly flat at ~$229, about 24% off its high.

How does an airport get more profitable while fewer people fly through it? GAP is a toll road for the sky: 12 Mexican airports (plus 2 in Jamaica) under 50-year concessions with inflation-linked regulated tariffs — so it raised charges (+7% at two airports on July 1) and grew retail revenue 24%, and pricing power overwhelmed a 5.6% traffic dip. The 'miss' was optical: total profit rose 9%, but the CBX acquisition diluted per-share earnings. And the traffic softness is one-offs (Hurricane Melissa in Jamaica, a strong peso, World Cup distortions) — Guadalajara actually grew 4.6%. It's a wonderful, bond-like asset (69% margins, 18.7% ROIC, 0.25 beta, ~5% yield) — but the priciest of the three Mexican airport groups. Our call: a constructive HOLD, fair value ~$250, and if you want the theme cheaper, ASUR trades at 9x EBITDA with a 7% yield.

THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, A TOLL ROAD WITH A RUNWAY, AT A FULL PRICE) — base-case value ~$250 vs ~$229 today.

What to watch: passenger traffic inflecting positive as the hurricane and World Cup distortions clear, the tariff ramp toward the maximum allowed rate, and the valuation gap to cheaper peer ASUR

Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha

DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

AngioDynamics (ANGO) Q4 FY2026 — AngioDynamics beat on its fiscal Q4 (revenue $86.6M, +8%; adjusted loss of $0.07, 4 cents better than feared), grew full-year Med Tech 18%, and guided FY27 revenue above consensus. The stock jumped ~11% to a 52-week high, led by NanoKnife (+64.5%) as Medicare coverage for its prostate-ablation therapy went live July 5.

AngioDynamics quietly reinvented itself: it sold its low-margin legacy lines and rebuilt around two growth platforms, and the star is NanoKnife — which destroys prostate tumors with electricity (a focal therapy that spares patients the incontinence/impotence risks of surgery or radiation). The catalyst just completed: FDA clearance (2024), billing codes live (Jan 1), and Medicare coverage effective July 5. NanoKnife grew 64.5% with capital placements up 132% — every machine placed is a razor that sells disposable probes for years. At ~1.7x sales, debt-free, the valuation is reasonable and the catalyst is only days old. But it just popped 11% to a 52-week high and more than half the company barely grows. A SPECULATIVE BUY — real catalyst, mind the entry. Fair value ~$18.

THE CALL: SPECULATIVE BUY (3/5, REAL CATALYST, MIND THE ENTRY) — base-case value ~$18 vs ~$14.43 today.

What to watch: disposable-probe (utilization) revenue accelerating in the quarters after the 132% jump in machine placements and the July 5 Medicare coverage, the Med Device drag on blended growth, and the path to GAAP profitability

Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha

DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

Phoenix Education Partners (PXED) Q3 FY2026 — Phoenix Education Partners (parent of the University of Phoenix) reported flat Q3 revenue of $271.8M, beat on adjusted EPS at $1.43, but cut its full-year revenue guide and saw margins compress — blaming AI-powered search for disrupting its student-recruitment funnel. The stock fell ~9.5% to ~$31.

The single number that governs this stock: 88.6% of Phoenix's revenue comes from federal financial aid, and a law (the 90/10 Rule) caps that at 90%. It earns 28% margins sitting 1.4 points from a cliff its own filing says could make the business 'unsustainable.' That's why a debt-free cash machine with $269M of cash trades at ~7x forward earnings. Two twists: the reason it fell (AI-powered search breaking the enrollment funnel — one of the first companies where you can point to a P&L line moving because of how people use AI), and the tailwind nobody's pricing (the June 29 repeal of Gainful Employment, the rule built to punish for-profit colleges). Cheap, with an ignored tailwind and real tail risk — a SPECULATIVE BUY, fair value ~$40.

THE CALL: SPECULATIVE BUY (3/5, CHEAP, WITH AN IGNORED TAILWIND) — base-case value ~$40 vs ~$31.29 today.

What to watch: the enrollment funnel stabilizing as marketing adapts to AI search, the 90/10 percentage holding well below 90%, and whether Apollo floods the tiny float with a secondary

Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha

DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

Ericsson (ERIC) Q2 2026 — Ericsson's Q2 2026 adjusted gross margin rose to 48.4% (Networks 50.4%, a multi-year high) and EPS met consensus, but the ADR fell ~13% — its worst earnings reaction in three years — after management warned that AI-driven memory and component cost inflation will squeeze Q3 Networks margins to 48-50%, revenue came in light, and North America declined.

Ericsson beat on profit and got hammered. The reason is a genuine irony: the same AI boom that underpins its long-term bull case (more data means more network spending) is bidding up the memory and chips inside its own radios, right now. So the demand is a later story and the cost is a now story, and the market repriced for the gap. But underneath: a real margin turnaround (48.4% adjusted, Networks at 50.4%), $6.2B of net cash (a fifth of the market cap), a ~3% dividend, and a ~13x P/E. After a 13% drop, that looks oversold. Our call: a SPECULATIVE BUY, fair value ~$11.50 — and we're MORE constructive than the bearish Street, whose targets sit right around the price.

THE CALL: SPECULATIVE BUY (3/5, A CHEAP TURNAROUND THE MARKET OVERSOLD) — base-case value ~$11.50 vs ~$10.10 today.

What to watch: Q3 gross margin holding at the high end of the 48-50% guide (proving the AI-cost hit is contained), North America stabilizing, and the memory-cost inflation staying a couple of quarters rather than a multi-year headwind

Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha

DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

Fastenal Company (FAST) Q2 2026 — Fastenal grew Q2 2026 revenue 14.7% to $2.39B with daily sales up 14.7%, but EPS of $0.33 only met consensus, gross margin fell 75bps to 44.6% on tariff costs, and it trimmed two full-year targets. The stock slipped ~2.2% to ~$44.75.

Nobody disputes Fastenal is a wonderful business — 31% return on capital, a genuine vending-machine and Onsite moat, a fortress balance sheet, and a growing dividend. The question is the price. At ~34x forward earnings for what's really a ~10% compounder (about 290bps of the 14.7% growth was tariff pricing, not volume), even a generous owner-earnings DCF lands around $42 — below the $44.75 price and below the Street's $47.67 average. Margins are squeezed by tariffs with no recovery guided for H2, and the CEO handed off to a successor two days after the print. A wonderful business at a full price.

THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, A WONDERFUL BUSINESS AT A FULL PRICE) — base-case value ~$42 vs ~$44.75 today.

What to watch: price-cost (margin) turning positive as tariffs settle, the digital-footprint mix re-accelerating past the trimmed target, and the CEO transition from Florness to Watts

Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha

DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

Kestra Medical Technologies (KMTS) Q4 FY2026 — Kestra Medical grew fiscal Q4 revenue 66% to $28.6M (FY26 +59% to $95.1M) and expanded gross margin to 54.8% — its 10th straight quarter of gains — but its adjusted EBITDA loss widened to $27M, EPS missed, and it guided FY27 revenue to $137M (+44%, a deceleration). The stock fell ~8.5% to ~$22.

Kestra makes the ASSURE wearable defibrillator and is the challenger to ZOLL's LifeVest in a two-player market — growing 59% while the market grows low-to-mid teens, so it's taking real share. The equity story is a gorgeous gross-margin ramp (40.5% to 54.8% in a year, targeting 70%+). So why did it fall 8%? The loss WIDENED (adj. EBITDA -$20M to -$27M), the guide decelerated to +44%, and management gave no path-to-breakeven date. At ~8x forward sales after the drop, it's a reasonable price for the growth — a SPECULATIVE BUY, with the risk that losses take longer to inflect than hoped.

THE CALL: SPECULATIVE BUY (3/5, GREAT TOP LINE, UNPROVEN BOTTOM LINE) — base-case value ~$27 vs ~$22 today.

What to watch: the first sign losses are inflecting (a narrowing EBITDA loss or a breakeven date), the collections/in-network conversion rate, and the share count

Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha

DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

Aehr Test Systems (AEHR) Q4 FY2026 — Aehr Test Systems beat on its fiscal Q4 (revenue $18.8M, +34%; non-GAAP EPS $0.11 vs a small expected loss), posted record bookings of $60.7M and a $100.6M effective backlog, and guided fiscal 2027 revenue to $130-150M — 160-200% growth. The stock rose ~6% to $72.

Going into the print, Aehr was the classic story stock: 52x sales, falling revenue, and no FY27 number. The print knocked down all three pillars of the bear case at once — it guided $130-150M (160-200% growth), Q4 gross margin recovered to 43%, and it fired the dilution gun (raised $97M, now $116M cash and no debt). So it's no longer a business-quality call, it's a valuation call: ~16x forward sales but ~84x forward earnings after a 5x run. Notably, the Street's $62 targets are stale (set pre-guide) and almost certainly headed up. A constructive HOLD.

THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, THE STORY GOT REAL; SO DID THE PRICE) — base-case value ~$72 vs ~$72 today.

What to watch: the gross margin holding as Sonoma scales, fiscal 2028 bookings (the encore customer), and the analyst upgrades likely coming after this guide

Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha

DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

Grupo Aeroméxico (AERO) Q2 2026 — Aeroméxico posted a record second-quarter revenue of $1.479B (+12.6%) on capacity up just 1.9% — and still swung to a $58M net loss, as jet fuel expense jumped 79.9% to $494M. The stock fell 8.5% to $15.30, now 25% below its November IPO price.

Aeroméxico's board policy permits hedging 40-60% of its jet fuel. It has hedged ZERO for six straight years — and this was the quarter fuel doubled. But the fuel shock isn't the real story: Delta ate the same 75% fuel spike and still earned $1.4B pre-tax. Aeroméxico's $68M of operating income didn't cover HALF of its $136M interest bill. Fuel was the trigger; the post-Chapter-11 balance sheet was the loaded gun. Meanwhile it trades at ~3.4x EV/EBITDAR vs 5.6-6.6x for Copa and Volaris, with an Eleventh Circuit ruling on the Delta joint venture due any day and a Volaris-Viva merger that would control ~69% of Mexican domestic traffic. Our base case: $21.50.

THE CALL: SPECULATIVE BUY (3/5, A LEVERED BET ON JET FUEL) — base-case value ~$21.50 vs ~$15.30 today.

What to watch: the price of jet fuel, the Eleventh Circuit ruling on the Delta joint venture, and whether management finally announces a fuel hedging program

Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha

DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

Delta Air Lines (DAL) Q2 2026 — Delta posted record adjusted revenue of $17.7B (+14%) and beat with adjusted EPS of $1.56 — but EPS fell 26% YoY on the highest quarterly fuel bill in its history, it affirmed rather than raised full-year guidance, and the stock slipped ~2% after a 76% run to record highs.

Delta is no longer a commodity airline — premium cabins now out-earn the main cabin, the American Express deal pays $2.4B a quarter, and relentless deleveraging earned an investment-grade rating from all three agencies (plus a 15% dividend hike). But after a 76% run to a record $95.68, it trades ~13-14x, and our owner-earnings DCF lands ~$90 vs the ~$87 price. A quality-airline-at-a-fair-price HOLD.

THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, QUALITY AIRLINE, FAIRLY VALUED) — base-case value ~$90 vs ~$87 today.

KEY METRICS:

- June qtr 2026: adjusted revenue $17.7B (+14%, a record; GAAP $19.76B); adjusted EPS $1.56 (beat ~$1.49, but -26% YoY); GAAP EPS $2.44

- Adjusted operating margin 8.8% (down from 13.3%) — the decline was entirely a fuel-cost problem

- Fuel $3.93/gallon (+75%, highest quarterly fuel expense in company history); guided to ~$3.15 next quarter (easing)

- Premium-cabin revenue +17% (now exceeds main cabin); Amex remuneration $2.4B (+16%, 7th straight double-digit quarter); diverse revenue 61% of total

- Unit revenue (TRASM) +12% on just +1% capacity; free cash flow $209M in Q2, $1.4B H1; FY26 FCF target $3-4B

- Adjusted net debt down ~17% YoY (~$3B); investment grade at all three agencies; dividend raised 15%; ROIC 10.9%

- Guidance: FY26 adjusted EPS $6.50-7.50 AFFIRMED (not raised); Q3 adjusted EPS $2.00-2.50 (a return to YoY growth)

- Valuation: stock ~$87 (down ~2% on the print), up 76% in a year, record $95.68 on July 2; ~13-14x forward P/E; market cap ~$58B

- Owner-earnings DCF (base ~$3.8B FCF, +2%/+5%, 9-11%): ~$90 fair value vs ~$87 price — essentially in line; the key risk is cyclicality

What to watch: the jet-fuel price (the swing factor), unit-revenue (TRASM) trends, and the free-cash-flow generation that funds debt paydown and the dividend

Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha

DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

Nurix Therapeutics (NRIX) Q2 FY2026 — Nurix Therapeutics reported a fiscal Q2 net loss of $(0.81) per share on ~$9M of collaboration revenue — but the story is the June Roche partnership on its BTK degrader bexobrutideg ($700M upfront, up to $2.3B), which lifts pro-forma cash to ~$1.14B and has driven the stock ~200% off its lows to near $25.

Nurix is a clinical-stage protein-degradation biotech with no product revenue — so we value it on cash + deals + pipeline, not earnings. After the transformational Roche deal it has a ~$1.14B pro-forma cash fortress (covering ~45% of its market cap), a 50/50 US stake in a validated BTK degrader, and wholly-owned pipeline optionality. But after a triple to 52-week highs, our sum-of-the-parts lands ~$26 vs the ~$25 price — de-risked, but a speculative HOLD.

THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, DE-RISKED, SPECULATIVE) — base-case value ~$26 vs ~$25 today.

KEY METRICS:

- Q2 FY26: collaboration revenue ~$9M; net loss ~$(89.5)M, or $(0.81)/share; R&D ~$88M; burn ~$90M/quarter

- Cash $443.5M at quarter-end (pre-Roche); pro-forma ~$1.14B including the $700M Roche upfront (lands next quarter); no debt

- Roche deal (June 2026) on bexobrutideg (BTK degrader): $700M upfront, up to $2.3B total, 50/50 US co-develop & profit split, tiered ex-US royalties

- Pipeline: bexobrutideg (Roche-partnered, pivotal Phase 2 + Phase 3); NX-1607 (wholly-owned oral CBL-B IO) + a second wholly-owned degrader

- June EHA data: response rates in the 80s-low-90s% in relapsed CLL/SLL with encouraging durability — the validation that drew Roche

- Additional partners: Sanofi (STAT6, milestone this quarter), Gilead (IRAK-4, Phase 1), Pfizer (degrader-ADCs)

- Market cap ~$2.5B; enterprise value ~$1.35B pro-forma; stock ~$25, up ~200% off the lows, near 52-week high ($25.08)

- Analysts: ~15/16 Buy, average target low-$30s (~25-30% upside), high $45, low $25

- Sum-of-the-parts (cash + risk-adjusted deal + pipeline): base ~$26 vs ~$25 price — roughly fair; the risk is binary clinical-trial outcomes

What to watch: the bexobrutideg pivotal (Phase 3) trial data, the two wholly-owned pipeline programs (NX-1607, second degrader), and any new pharma milestones

Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha

DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.