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In this episode, I'm going to show you some of the most common ways that black swan events can disrupt and ruin your life. We're all familiar with the phrase "black swan theory", which was coined by Nassim Nicholas Taleb in his book The Black Swan. It refers to an event or occurrence that deviates beyond what is normally expected of a situation and has a major impact on its surroundings - often shocking those who were not expecting it. But what are they? And how do you get ready for them? Let me break down some things you should know about black swans before they happen to you!

Home Sales Rose for the Second Straight Month:

• Home sales rose for the second straight month but were barely higher than in July 2020.
• The inventory of homes at the end of July stood at 1.32 million, down 12% from a year ago, but that is a smaller annual decline than in recent months.
• The median price of an existing home sold in July was $359,900. That is a 17.8% increase compared with July 2020.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/23/home-sales-rose-in-july-as-demand-outpaced-slightly-stronger-supply.html

Housing Market Black Swan Bubbling:

• Record low-interest rates, historically tight inventories, and the COVID-19 pandemic pulling forward the flight from city centers to the suburbs have sparked an unprecedented rise in U.S. home prices.
• Home prices soared by a record 16.6% year over year in May, according to the national Case-Shiller index, and are now 38.1% above their 2006 peak.
• Home prices soared by a record 16.6% year over year in May, according to the national Case-Shiller index, and are now 38.1% above their 2006 peak.

https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/housing-black-swan

Share of Mortgages in Forbearance:

• The Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) latest Forbearance and Call Volume Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance decreased by 1 basis point from 3.26% of servicers' portfolio volume in the prior week to 3.25% as of August 15, 2021. According to MBA's estimate, 1.6 million homeowners are in forbearance plans.

https://www.mba.org/2021-press-releases/august/share-of-mortgage-loans-in-forbearance-decreases-to-325-percent

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You know that the economy isn’t doing well. I mean, come on!

We’re all feeling it in our pocketbooks. And it’s not just about your bank account either: there are a lot of people out of work and losing their homes because they can’t make ends meet. But don’t worry – even though things seem bleak right now, there’s still plenty to be optimistic about! Watch this video for five reasons why the economy might NOT be as bad as you think.

-The number of signed contracts on existing homes fell in June.

-The latest data from S&P Case-Shiller shows that prices in May were 17% higher than they were a year ago.

-Mortgage rates shot upward in June, further adding to the affordability issue.

-Newly built houses, which closed in June were down 6.6% from May, and 19.4% from June 2020

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/29/pending-home-sales-drop-in-june-.html

–An inflation gauge followed closely by the Federal Reserve increased 3.5% year over year in June, below the expected 3.6%.

-Consumer spending increased by 1% as personal income also rose faster than expected.

-When it comes to employment, the rate of inflation increased.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/30/key-inflation-indicator-up-3point5percent-year-over-year-in-june-vs-3point6percent-estimate.html

-Lumber futures closed at $621.90(As of July 30th)

-At the peak lumber was going for $1,711.20 per 1,000 board feet, which was adding about $20,000 in building costs to a $200,000 house

-Mill executives say lumber prices could rise again due to the wildfires in British Columbia

https://www.wsj.com/articles/record-lumber-prices-deliver-sawmills-a-windfall-11627654852?mod=saved_content

If this housing market news has you worried about a possible housing bubble, you’re not alone. Housing prices are on the rise again and many Americans are unlikely to be able to afford homes if this trend keeps up. Lumber futures rose sharply earlier in the year due to COVID-19, which really hurt the supply chain with lumber mills.

Housing Supply is tight, and demand has been outpacing supply in many markets. Housing starts have been down for the past 4 months, and they have not kept pace with the growing demand for houses. Housing starts are an important measure of the demand for housing and if they don’t keep up with the growing demand then we could be at risk for a Housing Bubble Burst.

To make matters worse, as housing prices increase more homebuyers are turning to adjustable-rate mortgages, which could result in a Housing Bubble Burst if interest rates are raised and people can’t afford their monthly payments.

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In this episode of the TruPodcast, we’re going to explore the 3 warning signs that will tell you if a housing bubble is about to burst.

It’s no secret that we’re in a time where the housing market is booming, but don’t get too excited because there are some very telling signs that say our party might be coming to an end soon. So before you invest your hard-earned money in your next investment property or buy a home, make sure you listen to this episode so you can avoid making costly mistakes later on.

There are signs of an impending housing bubble, but we are not talking about some data points that could tell us whether or not the housing market will crash.

Prices have set several record highs in 2021, while the housing supply was ill-prepared for the increased demand due to the pandemic. Additionally, the housing market has been experiencing FOMO, which has driven the prices of the housing market to a point where a substantial portion of potential homebuyers cannot afford to buy.

https://www.businessinsider.com/us-housing-bubble-home-price-inflation-rent-costs-market-2021-8

The share of small houses that were for sale in July 2021 increased. But will these houses make it more affordable for homebuyers going forward? A small house as defined by Realtor.com is between 750 and 1,750 square feet. The average median for these types of houses in July 2021 was $385,000.

https://www.businessinsider.com/small-house-listings-increasing-amid-improving-housing-market-2021-8

For the first week of August, homeowners that are in forbearance came in at 1.6 million. Overall, that is a reduction from 3.40% to 3.26%. This segment of homeowners is in jeopardy of losing their homes. You might be saying this sounds like our last housing bubble, but this time it is different. There are more homeowners that are using forbearance as a financial tool, but unfortunately, forbearance is not a tool that you should use for a long period of time.

https://www.mba.org/2021-press-releases/august/share-of-mortgage-loans-in-forbearance-decreases-to-326-percent

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We often think that if we want success, we need to have a lot of money in the bank account or be born into it. The truth is that you should possess two skills: reading and math. These two skills are the foundation of every profession and any job position that requires attention to detail. Without them, you cannot succeed in life! In the latest episode of TruPodcast, we discuss how a State passed a law that will not require a high school graduate to be proficient in their reading and math skills. How do you think that will impact these young adults in the future?

Also, we’ll talk about the housing market, your money, and how debt is growing at alarming rates in some States.

Show Links:

https://www.oregonlive.com/politics/2021/08/gov-kate-brown-signed-a-law-to-allow-oregon-students-to-graduate-without-proving-they-can-write-or-do-math-she-doesnt-want-to-talk-about-it.html

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/10/3point4-million-americans-are-still-long-term-unemployed.html

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/11/cpi-report-july-2021.html

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/10/us-states-with-the-most-credit-card-debt.html

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-The Senate announced a $1 trillion infrastructure bill that would make use of the Economic Injury Disaster Loan program, which currently holds roughly $30 billion in unspent funds.

-The Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act would claw back $13.5 billion from the EIDL program, and another $17.6 billion in affiliated grants for businesses in low-income areas to provide more funding for the infrastructure bill

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/03/senate-infrastructure-bill-pulls-31-billion-from-eidl-covid-disaster-loan-program.html

-The fastest growth of debt since 2007 (Last downturn)

-Mortgage loan originations over the past year have totaled $4.6 Trillion, which equates to 44% of all outstanding home loan balances

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/03/household-debt-jumps-by-the-most-in-14-years-to-nearly-15-trillion-in-the-second-quarter.html

-CDC uses resurgence of COVID-19 to put the ban in place

-New order could be challenged in Courts due to the legal position of the US Supreme Court

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-08-04/biden-s-new-eviction-ban-eases-liberal-ire-at-cost-of-legal-risk?srnd=premium

How to Change Your Life Completely in 10 Powerful Steps. Are You Ready To Change Your Life?

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In this podcast, I’m going to give you a quick rundown of what’s going on in the housing market and how it affects you.

In this episode of the TruPodcast, I will discuss two numbers that can make your day better or worse depending on how you look at them. The first number is $361,800 which is an average sales price of a new home for June 2021. The second number is $563.40(At the time this episode was recorded), which is the cost of 1,000 board feet of lumber. Why is that number important to you and me? It tells us how much it can potentially cost us to build a brand new home. Or that back patio you want to build, but have been putting it off cause the cost of lumber has priced you out of the market.

I think that everyone has been wondering what’s happening with housing prices lately? Well, we’re here for you. We’ll take a look at some of the factors affecting today’s real estate market and provide an overview of what might happen next. If you want to know more about homeownership or are considering buying or selling your own property. So what does all of this mean? Tune into this episode to find out!

References Used:

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/29/pending-home-sales-drop-in-june-.html

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The cost of living has been steadily increasing for years, and it’s not getting any better. In this TruPodcast, I’m going to explain the housing market in eight minutes with my own twist on how it all works.

So you think the housing market is soaring? Maybe you should take a closer look. In this podcast, I break down how rents are increasing and what it means for your wallet and the broader economy.

You’re spending more and more of your paycheck on rent. But the crazy housing market is making it impossible to find a place that fits into your budget? We get it, we’ve been there too!

The median U.S. home price has risen to a new high of $363,300 as strong demand pushes the number of homes sold higher than ever before! The National Association for Realtors (NAR) said that existing-home sales rose 1.4% in June from the prior month and have increased by 22%. What does this mean? We will share some of our thoughts on all of this!

Here’s why:
1) People are making more money but not enough to cover rent increases with their income alone; 2) Baby Boomers need to sell homes before they retire or face losing equity; 3) New home construction isn’t keeping up with demand so prices keep going up.

I’m going to tell you all about the cost of living and why it’s so expensive nowadays. It’s not just rent that has increased but also housing prices which are a big reason for people being unable to afford a house these days. So sit back with your coffee or tea and let me explain everything in detail.

Links to Articles from the Podcast:

https://www.businessinsider.com/single-family-house-rent-skyrocketing-especially-in-the-south-corelogic-2021-7

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/20/builders-pull-back-as-more-homebuyers-are-priced-out-of-the-market.html

https://www.wsj.com/articles/big-landlord-launches-5-billion-house-hunt-11626781403?mod=flipboard

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Inflation, buyer’s remorse, fear of missing out. You’re not alone if you feel like the economy is talking to you.

I want to talk about how we all have this little voice in our head that talks about economic worries- inflation, debt load, and more. It can be hard to know what will happen next when it feels like everything is changing too quickly for us to keep up. But worry no more because today we are going to talk about these fears one by one and get all your questions answered so you can sleep easy at night knowing everything will work out just fine.

Links to articles:

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/13/consumer-price-index-increases-5point4percent-in-june-vs-5percent-estimate.html

https://www.wmur.com/article/many-homebuyers-are-dropping-out-the-market/37001783

https://www.investing.com/commodities/lumber

The post Inflation worries, Buyer’s remorse….REALLY? appeared first on TruVest.

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#TruPodcast #Phoenix #Housing #FOMO

In this episode, I’m going to break down the realities of the housing market and how it is impacting your wallet.

Hi there, my name is Ryan DeMent and today I want to talk about something that’s been on everyone’s mind; FOMO- Fear Of Missing Out. We’re all feeling it when we see prices only go up instead of coming back down but in this episode of the TruPodcast, I’m going to share with you some real facts on how much homes are really costing these days.

The post FOMO: The Realities of the Housing Market & Your Wallet appeared first on TruVest.

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