Chatham House

EU expansion, energy shocks, and uneasy alliances: will the conflict in the Gulf – and other crises – force a more unified European strategy?

This week’s episode comes from the Delphi Economic Forum in Greece, where host Bronwen Maddox is joined by Grégoire Roos, director of our Europe, Russia and Eurasia programmes.

As the fallout from the US-Israel war on Iran ripples through global markets, Europe finds itself under renewed pressure.

Recorded on location amid the activity and discussions of the forum, they explore how Europe is responding to an increasingly unpredictable United States, reconsidering its own economic and security priorities, and navigating its relationship with Russia. Is this a moment of fragmentation – or the beginning of a more coherent European stance?

Produced by Stephen Farrell.

All eyes are currently on the Gulf due to the US-Israel war with Iran and the disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz. In this two-part series, the Climate Briefing co-hosts and their guests take a deep dive into the region, which plays a crucial role in the global supply of oil and gas.

How did the Gulf countries become such dominant fossil fuel exporters? What has this dominance meant for their geopolitical influence? What role have oil and gas played in conflicts and coups in the region? And what might the future hold for the Gulf producers?

In the first part of the series, Anna and Bhargabi delve into the history of the region together with Professor Paul Stevens (Associate Fellow at Chatham House; Emeritus Professor at the University of Dundee; Distinguished Fellow at the Al-Attiyah Foundation; and Distinguished Fellow at the Institute of Energy Economics), who has published extensively on energy economics, the international petroleum industry, economic development issues, and the political economy of the Gulf.

The second part of the series will focus on how the Gulf producers are approaching — and may be affected by — the energy transition, as well as what the long-term implications of the Iran war might be for the region.

From Hormuz to Hungary and the Vatican to the Federal Reserve, it has been an unusually contentious week for the White House, even by the standards of President Trump’s second administration.

This week’s podcast comes from the US, where our analysts assess the political and economic state of the US as it begins gearing up for the midterm elections.

From New York, Chatham House Director Bronwen Maddox and Director of the US and North America Programme, Laurel Rapp, are joined by David Lubin, Senior Research Fellow in the Global Economy and Finance Programme, who is in Washington for the International Monetary Fund and World Bank’s annual Spring Meetings to discuss the global economy and financial markets.

The panel discuss the Iran ceasefire, nuclear negotiations, the Strait of Hormuz blockade, the health of the global economy, a setback for one Trump ally in Budapest and domestic criticism for President Trump over tensions between the White House and Pope Leo.

Produced by Stephen Farrell.

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China prepared in advance for a US attack on Iran. But many of its Asian neighbours have been hit hard because their economies were heavily reliant on energy imports from the Gulf.

In the short-term, the near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz has triggered rationing, and shortages of diesel, gas and fertiliser. Does that set a negative precedent for other choke points across the world?

In the longer-term the war may force Asian nations into deeper reckonings: to reassess supply chains, economic strategies and whether the US can be trusted as a stable ally.

Why hasn’t China supported Iran more? Will the standoff over Hormuz tempt Beijing to flex its muscles over the Taiwan Strait or the South China Sea? How will Pakistan leverage its status as negotiator? Will the countries of southeast Asia follow through on calls for more regional integration of energy supplies?

To discuss these issues, and more, Ben Bland, Director of the Asia-Pacific Programme, hosts this week’s Independent Thinking podcast, standing in for Bronwen Maddox. He is joined by two of his Chatham House colleagues: Yu Jie, Senior Research Fellow for China; and Chietigj Bajpaee, Senior Research Fellow for South Asia.

Since the war in Sudan began in 2023, grassroots, volunteer-led mutual aid groups – the Emergency Rooms (ERRs) – have delivered vital humanitarian assistance and played a key role in safeguarding civilian life across the country in the face of the devastating conflict. The work of the ERRs is grounded in the Sudanese tradition of ‘nafeer’, an Arabic word meaning collective action.

Less documented is the critical role Sudanese women play in responding to humanitarian needs arising from the conflict. They are at the forefront of providing medical assistance and psychosocial support, creating safe spaces for children and responding to gender-based violence.

In this episode, we are joined by Alaa Hassan Taris and Khalid Gurashi, representatives of the ERRs who were in London to receive the Chatham House Prize in recognition of their crucial role in delivering humanitarian support during the ongoing war in Sudan. Dr Eva Khair, founder of the Sudan Transnational Consortium, also joins the conversation with Alaa and Khalid to discuss how vital grassroots-led responses are within the wider international humanitarian picture and highlight the imperative for continued advocacy on the global stage.

Find more information about the ERRs and how to support their work here: https://www.mutualaidsudan.org/

The Chatham House Prize 2025 was generously supported by Dr Mo Ibrahim, Open Society Foundations and Quadrature Climate Foundation.

As the conflict in the Middle East rattles energy markets, this episode explores the connections between climate change, energy, and geopolitics. It addresses questions such as:

What does the war in Iran reveal about the links between fossil fuels, vulnerability, and power? What lessons can be drawn?

What does the energy transition mean for global geopolitics, and how should governments manage the ‘messiness’ of the process?

How are the impacts of climate change reshaping our world, and what can be done to navigate the challenges that arise?

To unpack these dynamics, Anna and Bhargabi are joined by Arthur Snell (a former diplomat and author of ‘Elemental: The New Geography of Climate Change and How We Survive It’), Michael Bradshaw (Professor of Global Energy at Warwick Business School, Associate Fellow at Chatham House, and author of ‘The Geopolitics of Energy System Transformation: Managing the Messy Mix’), and Dr Beatrice Mosello (Senior Research Fellow at Chatham House).

An earlier than usual episode of the Independent Thinking podcast, ahead of the Easter break.

In a one-on-one conversation, Chatham House Director Bronwen Maddox discusses energy with Sir Dieter Helm, Professor of Economic Policy at the University of Oxford, who has been advising governments and writing on energy, water and the environment for decades.

They examine how energy policies of different governments over decades led to the UK’s energy costs being so high. And what the government should do if it wants to guarantee security of supply – and to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

Are those concerned about climate change right to push for net zero? Are current policies driving industry from the UK? Should there be more nuclear power stations, or more drilling in the North Sea?

One month on from the start of the US and Israeli war on Iran, governments worldwide are trying to assess the scale of its long-term impact on the global economy and political system.

Much will depend on how long the conflict continues, and how long Iran blocks fuel exports and other cargo vessels from passing through the Strait of Hormuz.

The White House and Iran have sent conflicting signals about whether negotiations are under way, even as thousands of US troops head to the Middle East. And even if President Trump secures a ceasefire with Iran, it is unclear if US and Israel are aligned on their visions for an end game.

Our panel assesses whether the world is headed for a 1973-style shock to the global economic system, pushing up inflation and cutting growth. And how Europe, Russia, China, and other nations will deal with a crisis that has disrupted energy flows and supply chains.

Joining regular host Bronwen Maddox are David Lubin, senior research fellow in Chatham House's Global Economy and Finance Programme, and Grégoire Roos, director of our Europe, Russia, and Eurasia programmes.

As a key mediator in the ongoing conflict in the eastern provinces of the Democratic Republic of the Congo, the United States has brokered peace agreements backed by security guarantees and by the investment potential of the country’s vast mineral wealth.

However, critics warn this “minerals for peace” approach risks overlooking unresolved issues – from the protection of minority rights to the limited role of the African Union, and fragile state-society relations in the DRC.

In this episode, Christian-Géraud Neema and Joshua Walker join the Africa Programme’s Romane Dideberg and Lisa Musumba to discuss how the short and long-term implications of the DRC’s pivot to the US is affecting its strategic autonomy, mining sovereignty, and what it means for President Tshisekedi’s political options.

The US-Israel war on Iran is straining Trump’s alliances, at home and abroad.

Three weeks into exactly the kind of war of choice that he spent years decrying, US President Donald Trump is not getting the amount of international support that he seeks for his campaign of air strikes on Iran.

There is also reluctance among NATO and other allies to be drawn into the political and economic turmoil caused by the US-Israeli campaign, and Tehran's region-wide retaliation.

Our experts discuss the state of US-Gulf relations, the muted European response to Trump’s appeals for help in re-opening the Strait of Hormuz, and what it could mean elsewhere in the world for ongoing crises in Ukraine, Cuba and Venezuela.

Joining host Bronwen Maddox this week are Dr Neil Quilliam, an associate fellow in our Middle East and North Africa Programme; Dr Christopher Sabatini, senior research fellow for Latin America; and Heather Hurlburt, a consulting fellow in our US and North America Programme.

Produced by Stephen Farrell and Sara Seth.

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