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France is grappling with mounting public debt, street demonstrations and riots, and political deadlock. Can these problems infect America, or is this an idiosyncratic French issue? To unpack what is unfolding in Paris, BBTW’sPeter Green spoke with Nicolas Véron, senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE) in Washington.
Looking at the fiscal strains and social unrest in France today, are we facing a potential repeat of the 2010s eurozone crisis, or is there a genuine contagion risk?I don’t see the current situation as generating a risk of a repeat of the eurozone [crisis] of the 2010s, and the reason for that is that I think France is at this point clearly lagging behind other EU countries in terms of reform and especially reform of things like the pension system. Basically, adjustment to aging, and that’s a significant part of the fiscal stress. Pension reform is never easy, but it’s been particularly difficult in France for reasons that seem to make France more the exception than the rule, at least in an EU context. I don’t see [it] plausible that it would deteriorate into a situation of actual financial [distress], by which I mean essentially any form of external financial assistance, let alone debt restructuring. As long as we are talking about fiscal adjustment, consolidation, maybe austerity, but not external financial assistance or debt restructuring, I don’t see a contagion dynamic. Cross-border contagion either within Europe or outside of Europe—I think this is a French situation.
How did France’s fiscal situation diverge so dramatically from its peers in Europe?France has had very little fiscal discipline for at least 20 years. Divergence with Germany, of course, is particularly striking because France and Germany had really very comparable fiscal trajectories, and particularly public debt, until 2008. Then there was this very striking divergence, where Germany was by and large fiscally disciplined—some would say overly so—and France was not. Germany has always viewed itself as a fiscal anchor of the European Union, and has applied to itself a lot of fiscal discipline. Then you have the so-called periphery countries like Italy, Spain, Portugal, Greece, which actually have been subject to market discipline. So you could say Germany has had self-discipline, the periphery has had market discipline, and France has been in that intermediate territory.
Why was France able to avoid market discipline for so long?My hunch is that it has something to do with the position of France in the European Union. France has felt itself to be too big to fail, which is one of the possible triggers of moral hazard. It was not really the anchor, so not the self-discipline of Germany, not the market discipline of the periphery, because there was a perception—and indeed that was to an extent the case in the previous crisis of the early 90s—that France would be somehow held, maybe even rescued by Germany if there was a really big problem. Therefore there has been this drift, and I think we are at the moment of reckoning of that sequence right now.
Structurally, what is driving the fiscal strain around pensions? How does the French system differ from models like the U.S.?France has a fairly generous pension system, and to keep it sustainable, you have to keep it in line with demographic trends. Other countries have reformed their pension system to adapt them to those changing demographics, and France has done a little bit, but not nearly enough. It’s mostly about raising the employment rate. France makes, especially companies, pay quite a lot into the pension system, but the replacement rate tends to be high, and most importantly, the retirement age tends to be low. Compared with the U.S., the private pension element is almost non-existent. [401(k)s and IRAs] don’t exist.
Beyond pensions, we’ve seen riots and street protests. Critics point to underfunded public services, but are energy price shocks or inflation also driving this unrest?My impression is that yes, there are those expressed grievances. But the driver of what we are seeing in France is slightly more diffuse and amorphous. It’s a feeling that the country is not going in a good direction. Problems are accumulating, not getting resolved. There is no sense of collective togetherness. People are fed up; it’s not always entirely clear what they are fed up with specifically. Pinning down the specific policy challenge that this episode is about may not be the best way to explain it. [Energy prices participate] in it, but it’s not the only thing. Fuel price shocks are dampened by the fact that gasoline in France is heavily taxed, and that is fine-tuned in a slightly countercyclical way. When the price of the raw material goes up, the tax is decreased, so you don’t have a direct impact on the price at the pump. It’s attenuated by the tax effect. Affordability is a theme more broadly, but it’s part of this overall landscape of dissatisfaction.
What is the tangible impact of all this unrest on businesses operating in France?There are three levels of it:
Marine Le Pen [on the far right] and [far-leftist] Jean-Luc Mélenchon are the two polarizing figures, but when you look at the electoral dynamics, it is highly asymmetrical. Le Pen is at this point quite well positioned to win the presidential election and to be France’s next president. By contrast, there is basically no plausible scenario in which Mélenchon wins. The outcome of the presidential election, in my [view, is] 50% Le Pen, 50% somebody else—somebody probably more mainstream centrist, somebody like Édouard Philippe. Less than 1% Mélenchon.
If Le Pen represents economic populism and Édouard Philippe represents orthodox governance, what does that mean for the actual prospects of fiscal reform?There is an irony in the equation. If Le Pen gets elected as president, it is quite likely that [she] would have a workable majority in parliament to govern. And therefore, she would have a prime minister who may not be from her party, but will be broadly politically aligned with her, and she will be able to implement her policies. Conversely, [if] somebody like Édouard Philippe is elected president, it is highly likely that he will not have a workable majority in parliament. He will have a situation in parliament which is very similar to what Macron has had throughout his second term—a minority government—and that’s much less conducive to reform. Even though on the campaign trail, Le Pen is largely a fiscally reckless populist, and Édouard Philippe is a comparatively fiscally disciplined, responsible government type, in terms of implementation, it is very plausible that the Le Pen victory opens a more promising path for fiscal consolidation than the Philippe victory. That’s very ironic, a bit depressing, but I think it’s the situation where we are.
What is the broader takeaway for U.S. observers and policymakers monitoring France’s fiscal squeeze?The very general [lesson] is: fiscal discipline is a good thing; fiscal incontinence is a bad thing. It gets you into trouble one day. The common thread is an unsustainable fiscal stance. In fairness, I think the U.S. fiscal trajectory is much less sustainable than the French fiscal trajectory, but the U.S. has exorbitant privilege. Let’s remember that the U.S. pays more interest for their debt than France at this point, so it’s not clear exactly that the exorbitant privilege is that powerful right now. But discipline is good for you.
(This interview has been edited and condensed for clarity and brevity)
—Peter S. Green
Big Businesses mentioned this week:$AAPL ( ▲ 0.83% ) , $AMZN ( ▼ 5.18% ) , $ANTHZZX ( ▲ 0.25% ) , $BA ( ▼ 2.47% ) , $BLK ( ▼ 0.82% ) , $BRZE ( ▲ 0.44% ) , $CRM ( ▲ 3.4% ) , $GOOG ( ▼ 3.41% ) , $GOOGL ( ▼ 3.5% ) , $ICE ( ▲ 3.21% ) , $JPM ( 0.0% ) , $KO ( ▲ 2.72% ) , $META ( ▼ 7.97% ) , $MSFT ( ▼ 2.1% ) , $NDAQ ( ▲ 6.17% ) , $NVDA ( ▼ 4.37% ) , $OPEAZZX ( ▼ 0.59% ) , $ORCL ( ▼ 3.97% ) , $PEP ( ▲ 2.81% ) , $SKYD ( ▼ 2.03% ) , $SPCX ( ▼ 8.9% ) , $TSLA ( ▼ 2.36% ) , $YUM ( ▲ 1.58% )
Elon’s WorldThe long-expected tie up of Elon Musk’s SpaceX $SPCX and Tesla $TSLA may be underway. In an earnings call Tuesday, Musk said both companies had set up exploratory committees of independent directors to examine a merger. There’s a lot of moving parts to it, and opposition from regulators, governments in the U.S., China or Europe, and shareholders who may not share Musk’s vision could torpedo a deal. So could markets, if the deal undermines confidence in Musk’s leadership or the combined firms’ ability to cover its bills.
The move would likely be an all-stock tie-up so no cash would change hands.What would the new company look like: With a combined market value of about $3.6 trillion at today’s market prices, it would be the world’s fifth most valuable company, alongside Nvidia $NVDA, Apple $AAPL, Alphabet $GOOGL and Microsoft $MSFT. It would combine its AI operations serving Tesla cars, SpaceX rocketships, Starlink satellites and mobile phones, and Grok and X on the Ai/Social media side. It would employ 155,000 people and generate $153 billion in revenue this year.
That all sounds great until you hear the buts. As far as cash is concerned, it would be a black hole. with negative cashflow of about $54 billion, as SpaceX ramps up R&D for new rocket ships, and invests in long-payback satellites, while Tesla continues to bleed cash. But what about synergies? “There’s a lot to be gained from co-operating on developing superintelligent software, chip design, the Terafab, obviously robotics, mass to orbit,” Musk said on Tuesday. Musk already runs both companies, and their informal ties are strong. But one “top” Tesla investor told the Financial Times that a merger is betting an awful lot of money on one man: Elon Musk: “Right now, he spends some time at Tesla and some at SpaceX, and shareholders cannot tell where he is spending most of his energy or money.”
Among the bears on this deal: hedge fund manager Jim Chanos, who asked in a post on X on Wednesday: “SpaceX Shareholders, you sure you want to buy this 5% ROIC business for $1.5T…?!” As recently as three years ago, Tesla’s return on invested capital was over 40%.But all the money invested since has been an epic failure at increasing profitability. (ROIC is the after-tax profit as a percentage of capital invested in the company). Municipal bonds are returning over 5% with much less risk than Tesla, and the interest on them is tax-free. SpaceX is betting in part that its AI arm will rake in the bucks. But even as SpaceX nearly doubled revenue from the second quarter to $14.6 billion from $7.8 billion, and saw net income swing from a $541 million loss in Q2 to a net profit of $4.4 billion in Q3, Musk conceded that the company is not doing much of a job selling its own AI services. AI “revenue” came from leasing out its server racks and chips to rivals including Anthropic $ANTHZZX. That income tripled from the second quarter to $7.6 billion.
A merger will also need approval of at least half the voting shares of each firm. Musk owns about 44% of SpaceX and 20% of Tesla, so gathering enough Tesla votes could be tough. A preview of what the combined company could do came last week with the introduction of the Tesla Roadster, a sports car that used compressed air jets to leap over traffic, but appeared to be an otherwise ordinary EV.
The long-expected tie up of Elon Musk’s SpaceX $SPCX and Tesla $TSLA may be underway. In an earnings call Tuesday, Musk said both companies had set up exploratory committees of independent directors to examine a merger. There’s a lot of moving parts to it, and opposition from regulators, governments in the U.S., China or Europe, and shareholders who may not share Musk’s vision could torpedo a deal. So could markets, if the deal undermines confidence in Musk’s leadership or the combined firms’ ability to cover its bills.
The move would likely be an all-stock tie-up so no cash would change hands.What would the new company look like: With a combined market value of about $3.6 trillion at today’s market prices, it would be the world’s fifth most valuable company, alongside Nvidia $NVDA, Apple $AAPL, Alphabet $GOOGL and Microsoft $MSFT. It would combine its AI operations serving Tesla cars, SpaceX rocketships, Starlink satellites and mobile phones, and Grok and X on the Ai/Social media side. It would employ 155,000 people and generate $153 billion in revenue this year.
That all sounds great until you hear the buts. As far as cash is concerned, it would be a black hole. with negative cashflow of about $54 billion, as SpaceX ramps up R&D for new rocket ships, and invests in long-payback satellites, while Tesla continues to bleed cash. But what about synergies? “There’s a lot to be gained from co-operating on developing superintelligent software, chip design, the Terafab, obviously robotics, mass to orbit,” Musk said on Tuesday. Musk already runs both companies, and their informal ties are strong. But one “top” Tesla investor told the Financial Times that a merger is betting an awful lot of money on one man: Elon Musk: “Right now, he spends some time at Tesla and some at SpaceX, and shareholders cannot tell where he is spending most of his energy or money.”
Among the bears on this deal: hedge fund manager Jim Chanos, who asked in a post on X on Wednesday: “SpaceX Shareholders, you sure you want to buy this 5% ROIC business for $1.5T…?!” As recently as three years ago, Tesla’s return on invested capital was over 40%.But all the money invested since has been an epic failure at increasing profitability. (ROIC is the after-tax profit as a percentage of capital invested in the company). Municipal bonds are returning over 5% with much less risk than Tesla, and the interest on them is tax-free. SpaceX is betting in part that its AI arm will rake in the bucks. But even as SpaceX nearly doubled revenue from the second quarter to $14.6 billion from $7.8 billion, and saw net income swing from a $541 million loss in Q2 to a net profit of $4.4 billion in Q3, Musk conceded that the company is not doing much of a job selling its own AI services. AI “revenue” came from leasing out its server racks and chips to rivals including Anthropic $ANTHZZX. That income tripled from the second quarter to $7.6 billion.
A merger will also need approval of at least half the voting shares of each firm. Musk owns about 44% of SpaceX and 20% of Tesla, so gathering enough Tesla votes could be tough. A preview of what the combined company could do came last week with the introduction of the Tesla Roadster, a sports car that used compressed air jets to leap over traffic, but appeared to be an otherwise ordinary EV.
Musk also ramped up the anti-Elon rage on Capitol Hill this week, after the Wall Street Journal revealed that Musk himself had ordered Starlink to slow service to Ukraine’s military. The decision cost scores of Ukrainian lives, as Russian missiles blasted Ukrainian cities unhindered by drones that usually run on Starlink. After Musk tried to blame President Trump for the decision, Republicans and Democrats on the Hill have called for Musk to appear at hearings. “We got to call the witnesses, got to bring them in, put them under oath and get to the bottom of it because this is a very, very serious matter,” GOP Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick of Pennsylvania said. Democrats said no one person would have the power to effectively run U.S. military and foreign policy. Fitzpatrick said Congress could block funding for any U.S. agencies or agency heads who took part in cutting off Ukraine.
But what’s behind Musk’s decision? He’s angling for some big U.S. government contracts, including one to provide AI arms to the Pentagon and to Taiwan, and he wants to be on president Trump’s good side. He’s also concerned that a Democratic-controlled House or Senate would hurt his business and rake him over the coals after the midterms. So, as Trump works to close a deal with Russia to add a trickle of diesel to global markets, Musk is working to block Ukraine from blowing up more Russian refineries.
As we went to press on Thursday afternoon, the Wall Street Journal reported that President Trump called Musk on Wednesday and asked him to lift the Starlink restrictions, U.S. officials said. The system was working more normally Thursday, shortly after their conversation, U.S. and Ukrainian officials said. Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D., Conn.) on Thursday announced an investigation into how Starlink was degraded for Ukraine without notice, and the implications of the Pentagon’s dependence on SpaceX for critical satellite communications.
Perhaps to distract from all the Ukraine mess, Musk this week promised a SpaceX share for every kid in America, and President Trump said the shares would be placed in 530-A accounts. If all 72 million Americans under 18 get a single SpaceX share, now worth $159, it would cost Musk about $11.47 billion, or about 1.145% of his $1 trillion fortune. For an American household with a mean net worth of $1.29 million, this would cost $17,835. So: It’s not nothing. On the other hand, it’s not a huge amount, either.
Shares in SpaceX were up 11.8% on Wednesday, and shares of Tesla rose 3.4% on news of the would-be merger. That’s about $205 billion in market capitalization, or enough to give American children about 20 shares in SpaceX, each.
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