Copper Weekly returns for episode seven — This week, we are joined by Ivan Llancas, senior supply analyst, based in Chile. Albert and Ivan discuss the challenges facing mining in Chile, alongside falling LME on-warrant stock, continuously high US copper imports, and flaring Iran-US tensions, and what all that means for the copper market.

In this episode:

Iran-US Tensions Flare Up — The fragile peace between Iran and the US was broken over the weekend, with strikes traded between the two nations. However, the market has reacted less significantly than previous developments, with participants now expecting geopolitical uncertainty.

US Copper Imports Remain High — Data released last week showed that US imports of copper cathode remain elevated, with the US continuing to import more than it needs. This is adding to tightness outside the US and may get worse as the LME/CME arbitrage spiked late in May and across June; this may have further incentivised imports.

Chilean Production Falls for May Year-on-Year — Last week, COCHILCO released data for May, showing a notable decrease in Chilean copper production, with a number of big names seeing reduced production.

Why has Chilean Production Been Challenged in Recent Years? – Chile has faced challenges keeping production up in recent years. Slow greenfield development, lowering ore grades, and regulatory restrictions, among other key factors, are discussed by Albert and Ivan as they dig into why Chile has struggled to keep production high.

LME on-warrant stocks fall as Chinese origin material becomes more dominant — On-warrant stock on the LME has fallen notably in the last few weeks, with the latest batch of cancellations coming in Asia. Beyond this, stocks in China have fallen in recent weeks; we may be seeing signals that demand is picking up.

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