Copper Weekly returns for episode seven — This week, we are joined by Ivan Llancas, senior supply analyst, based in Chile. Albert and Ivan discuss the challenges facing mining in Chile, alongside falling LME on-warrant stock, continuously high US copper imports, and flaring Iran-US tensions, and what all that means for the copper market.

In this episode:

Iran-US Tensions Flare Up — The fragile peace between Iran and the US was broken over the weekend, with strikes traded between the two nations. However, the market has reacted less significantly than previous developments, with participants now expecting geopolitical uncertainty.

US Copper Imports Remain High — Data released last week showed that US imports of copper cathode remain elevated, with the US continuing to import more than it needs. This is adding to tightness outside the US and may get worse as the LME/CME arbitrage spiked late in May and across June; this may have further incentivised imports.

Chilean Production Falls for May Year-on-Year — Last week, COCHILCO released data for May, showing a notable decrease in Chilean copper production, with a number of big names seeing reduced production.

Why has Chilean Production Been Challenged in Recent Years? – Chile has faced challenges keeping production up in recent years. Slow greenfield development, lowering ore grades, and regulatory restrictions, among other key factors, are discussed by Albert and Ivan as they dig into why Chile has struggled to keep production high.

LME on-warrant stocks fall as Chinese origin material becomes more dominant — On-warrant stock on the LME has fallen notably in the last few weeks, with the latest batch of cancellations coming in Asia. Beyond this, stocks in China have fallen in recent weeks; we may be seeing signals that demand is picking up.

Copper Weekly is produced by Benchmark, the leading independent price reporting agency and market intelligence provider for critical minerals and energy transition metals.

Benchmark’s Copper Service delivers in‑depth analysis of prices, trade flows, supply and demand fundamentals, smelter and mine dynamics, and regional physical markets – helping producers, traders, consumers and investors understand what is really driving the copper market.

To learn more about Benchmark’s copper coverage, explore our data and analysis, or to arrange a demonstration of the service, visit: www.benchmarkminerals.com/copper 

You can also receive Benchmark’s free fortnightly copper newsletter, featuring market commentary and key developments, by signing up here: www.benchmarkminerals.com/newsletters 

For questions about this episode, or to speak directly with our copper analysts and team, contact us at: [email protected] 

Copper Weekly returns for episode six — and while the US tariff saga rumbles quietly in the background, the real focus this week is a potential structural shift that could reshape how the entire copper concentrate market is priced. Mike and Albert take a deep dive into Antofagasta's reported move towards spot index-linked treatment charges and what it could mean for the benchmark system that has underpinned the market for decades.

In this episode:

Still Waiting on Tariffs — No official word on the Section 232 announcement, though sources indicate it remains under active review in Washington. Albert explains why the arbitrage hasn't collapsed and why the market continues to trade sideways in a wait-and-see mode.

Antofagasta Breaks Ranks — Reports suggest Antofagasta has agreed spot index-linked concentrate sales with a number of Chinese smelters. As the de facto benchmark negotiator alongside Freeport, this is a potentially seismic move. Albert unpacks why it matters and how the benchmark system has traditionally functioned.

The End of the Benchmark? — Could the benchmark and spot-linked systems coexist, or is this the beginning of the end? Albert explains why market consensus, particularly outside China, will determine whether the shift truly takes hold.

How the Deals Actually Work — Floors, ceilings, price reporting agencies and multi-index aggregates. Albert demystifies the mechanics of spot index-linked pricing and why spot doesn't necessarily mean buying more material on the spot market.

Who Wins? — With a huge gap between benchmark and spot levels, Albert explores who benefits in the short term versus the long term, why the move makes strategic sense for Antofagasta, and how a fully spot-linked market might eventually push aggregate TCs higher and force weaker smelters to close.

Why Would Smelters Agree? — From forced hands to bets on turning acid prices, Albert lays out why smelters might accept a deal that looks net negative today, and why European, Japanese and Korean players are likely to resist hardest.

The Week Ahead — Whether this opens the floodgates hinges almost entirely on what happens outside China. Albert flags the trust in spot indices and pressure from miners as the key factors to watch.

New episodes every week. Follow the show and leave a rating — it helps us reach more listeners across the copper market and beyond.

Copper Weekly is produced by Benchmark, the leading independent price reporting agency and market intelligence provider for critical minerals and energy transition metals.

Benchmark’s Copper Service delivers in‑depth analysis of prices, trade flows, supply and demand fundamentals, smelter and mine dynamics, and regional physical markets – helping producers, traders, consumers and investors understand what is really driving the copper market.

To learn more about Benchmark’s copper coverage, explore our data and analysis, or to arrange a demonstration of the service, visit: www.benchmarkminerals.com/copper 

You can also receive Benchmark’s free fortnightly copper newsletter, featuring market commentary and key developments, by signing up here: www.benchmarkminerals.com/newsletters 

For questions about this episode, or to speak directly with our copper analysts and team, contact us at: [email protected] 

Copper Weekly is back for episode five — and this one was meant to be the big tariff reveal. Mike and Albert deliberately delayed recording to Wednesday July 1st to capture the long-awaited US Section 232 announcement on copper. The result? Silence. No announcement, no tariff, no clarity. So instead, the pair use the occasion to step back and examine the deeper logic behind US copper protectionism.

In this episode:

The Non-Announcement — June 30th came and went with nothing. Albert explains why this outcome was not entirely a surprise, whether the market simply misread the deadline, and why an announcement could still land in the coming days, potentially timed around the July 4th weekend for maximum political effect.

Reading the Arbitrage and Forward Curve — Despite the silence, the CME-LME arbitrage has not collapsed and the CME remains in a strong contango. Albert unpacks what that signals about the market's continued expectation of a tariff further down the line.

Why Copper? The Case for Protection — The US is a major producer of mined copper and scrap, yet runs a significant deficit in refined cathode. Albert breaks down this raw-materials-surplus, refined-metal-deficit dynamic and explains exactly what gap a cathode tariff would be trying to close.

Stick vs Carrot — Would a tariff actually incentivise new smelter capacity? Albert makes the case that the multi-year, multi-billion-dollar commitment of building a smelter sits awkwardly against a policy that may not outlast the current administration, and points to alternatives like Argentina's RIGI framework, tax breaks and low-cost loans.

Where Do Imports Actually Come From? — US statements reference China, yet America barely imports any Chinese copper. Albert explores the disconnect between the national security narrative and the reality that most US copper comes from allies like Chile, Canada and Mexico.

The Scrap Question — With the US exporting large volumes of scrap to China, could export controls be the next lever? Albert explains why domestic processing capacity, not export policy, is the real constraint.

The Week Ahead — Will we finally hear something? Albert offers his honest gut call: if an announcement comes, he expects it to confirm a cathode tariff, but concedes there is a real chance of continued silence.

New episodes every week. Follow the show and leave a rating — it helps us reach more listeners across the copper market and beyond.

Copper Weekly is produced by Benchmark, the leading independent price reporting agency and market intelligence provider for critical minerals and energy transition metals.

Benchmark’s Copper Service delivers in‑depth analysis of prices, trade flows, supply and demand fundamentals, smelter and mine dynamics, and regional physical markets – helping producers, traders, consumers and investors understand what is really driving the copper market.

To learn more about Benchmark’s copper coverage, explore our data and analysis, or to arrange a demonstration of the service, visit: www.benchmarkminerals.com/copper 

You can also receive Benchmark’s free fortnightly copper newsletter, featuring market commentary and key developments, by signing up here: www.benchmarkminerals.com/newsletters 

For questions about this episode, or to speak directly with our copper analysts and team, contact us at: [email protected] 

Benchmark's Copper Weekly returns for episode four — and after last week's peace deal optimism, the mood has shifted once again. Fresh tensions over the weekend have left the market in wait-and-see mode, while a potentially landmark shift in how the concentrate market is priced has set tongues wagging across the industry.

In this episode:

A Fragile Peace and a Sideways Market — The Strait of Hormuz briefly reopened over the weekend before tensions flared again. Albert explains why copper has traded so sideways through the conflict, and why "wait and see" has become the market's default position.

Are Prices Justified? — With copper still sitting at historically elevated levels, Albert offers a candid view on whether current prices can really be justified, and what a genuine, lasting resolution to the conflict might actually mean for the market.

Counting Down to June 30th — One week out from the US tariff deadline, Albert reports an evenly split market, fluctuating arbitrage between $400/t and $700/t, and a real possibility that the 'can' simply gets kicked down the line with little fresh clarity.

Cobre Panama's Path to Restart — A broadly positive audit marks an important step towards reopening the mine that shuttered in 2023. Albert unpacks what the audit did and did not show, why the mine matters so much to Panama, and what a restart would mean for an already deeply tight concentrate market.

The End of the Benchmark TC System? — Antofagasta has reportedly offered Chinese smelters spot index-linked treatment charges rather than the traditional negotiated benchmark. Albert breaks down why this could be one of the most significant structural shifts in years, how smelters are likely to respond, and what it would mean if the benchmark system were to disappear altogether.

The Week Ahead — All eyes remain on the June 30th tariff deadline. Albert flags the arbitrage as the key signal to watch, with the potential for real volatility if any rumours or early signals emerge.

New episodes every week. Follow the show and leave a rating — it helps us reach more listeners across the copper market and beyond.

Copper Weekly is produced by Benchmark, the leading independent price reporting agency and market intelligence provider for critical minerals and energy transition metals.

Benchmark’s Copper Service delivers in‑depth analysis of prices, trade flows, supply and demand fundamentals, smelter and mine dynamics, and regional physical markets – helping producers, traders, consumers and investors understand what is really driving the copper market.

To learn more about Benchmark’s copper coverage, explore our data and analysis, or to arrange a demonstration of the service, visit: www.benchmarkminerals.com/copper 

You can also receive Benchmark’s free fortnightly copper newsletter, featuring market commentary and key developments, by signing up here: www.benchmarkminerals.com/newsletters 

For questions about this episode, or to speak directly with our copper analysts and team, contact us at: [email protected] 

Benchmark's Copper Weekly is back for episode three — and this week there is one story that dominates the conversation above all else. The Trump-Iran peace announcement sent shockwaves through financial markets, and copper was no exception. Mike and Albert unpack what it means for prices, sentiment and the physical supply chains that underpin copper production.

In this episode:

The Peace Deal and Copper Prices — When the US-Iran peace announcement landed, copper pushed up sharply and the dollar fell almost to the minute. Albert explains the mechanics behind that relationship and why the news carried both immediate and longer-term implications for the copper market.

Will it Hold? — Even if the deal proves fragile, Albert argues there may be enough time for sulphur and acid shipments to move through the Strait of Hormuz and replenish critical stockpiles. A temporary peace may be enough to shift the SX-EW picture meaningfully.

US Copper Stockpiles Hit Staggering Levels — April import data came in at around 130kt, and Benchmark's estimates now put total US copper cathode stocks at approximately 1.2Mt. To put that in context, that is more refined copper than Germany, Japan or South Korea consumes in an entire year.

Mining Equities vs the Copper Price — Copper prices are up around 10% year to date, but a basket of major mining equities has pushed up close to 40% over the same period. Albert breaks down why equities amplify copper's moves, from profit margin dynamics to retail investor flows and broader ETF positioning.

Treatment Charges: Is There a Floor? — With a potential easing of sulphuric acid prices on the horizon, could TCs finally be approaching a turning point? Albert shares what smelters buying forward into 2027 at deeply negative levels are signalling about their own expectations.

The Week Ahead — All eyes on Friday and the potential signing of the US-Iran memorandum in Switzerland. Albert also flags the approaching June 30th tariff deadline as a second major catalyst that could move both the CME and LME in the coming days.

New episodes every week. Follow the show and leave a rating — it helps us reach more people across the copper market and beyond.

Copper Weekly is produced by Benchmark, the leading independent price reporting agency and market intelligence provider for critical minerals and energy transition metals.

Benchmark’s Copper Service delivers in‑depth analysis of prices, trade flows, supply and demand fundamentals, smelter and mine dynamics, and regional physical markets – helping producers, traders, consumers and investors understand what is really driving the copper market.

To learn more about Benchmark’s copper coverage, explore our data and analysis, or to arrange a demonstration of the service, visit: www.benchmarkminerals.com/copper 

You can also receive Benchmark’s free fortnightly copper newsletter, featuring market commentary and key developments, by signing up here: www.benchmarkminerals.com/newsletters 

For questions about this episode, or to speak directly with our copper analysts and team, contact us at: [email protected] 

Benchmark's Copper Weekly is back for episode two — and with host Mike Finch holding the fort in London and analyst Albert reporting live from Washington DC, this week's conversation covers a market where macro forces are firmly in the driving seat.

With copper prices easing back slightly from last week's levels, Mike and Albert unpack whether the recent equity sell-off and Middle East re-escalation represent genuine fundamental reassessment or simply short-term noise in what remains a historically elevated price environment.

In this episode:

Macro vs. Fundamentals — Equities sold off, the Middle East flared up again, and copper felt some pressure. But with prices still comfortably above $13,000/t, is Dr. Copper simply responding to noise, or is something deeper shifting?

The Arbitrage Narrows — The CME-LME spread pulled back from around $600/t to $374/t. Is that wide enough to keep incentivising US imports, and what does the forward curve tell us about where things are headed?

June 30th Countdown — The next US Section 232 tariff announcement is approaching fast. Albert gives his honest assessment of what to expect — and why even seasoned market participants are treating it as a genuine coin flip.

Peru vs. Chile — Peru just recorded its best ever Q1 copper output while Chile hit its worst since 2017. Albert breaks down the structural reasons behind these diverging trajectories and whether the trend has further to run.

The Week Ahead — Wednesday's US inflation print is the key data point to watch. Albert also flags LME cancellations and the arbitrage as the copper-specific signals worth tracking closely.

Plus: Albert previews his meetings with miners and financials in New York — and reveals the three questions everyone in the room will want answered.

New episodes every week. Follow the show and leave a rating — it really helps us grow.

Copper Weekly is produced by Benchmark, the leading independent price reporting agency and market intelligence provider for critical minerals and energy transition metals.

Benchmark’s Copper Service delivers in‑depth analysis of prices, trade flows, supply and demand fundamentals, smelter and mine dynamics, and regional physical markets – helping producers, traders, consumers and investors understand what is really driving the copper market.

To learn more about Benchmark’s copper coverage, explore our data and analysis, or to arrange a demonstration of the service, visit: www.benchmarkminerals.com/copper 

You can also receive Benchmark’s free fortnightly copper newsletter, featuring market commentary and key developments, by signing up here: www.benchmarkminerals.com/newsletters 

For questions about this episode, or to speak directly with our copper analysts and team, contact us at: [email protected] 

Welcome to Copper Weekly – Benchmark's brand-new podcast cutting through the noise of global copper markets. In this inaugural episode, host Mike Finch and Copper Analyst & Market Reporter, Albert Mackenzie, sit down to do something a little different: instead of diving straight into the week's moves, they zoom out and ask the bigger question — why is copper where it is, and what got us here?

In this episode:

Structural price highs – What's really behind copper's elevated pricing regime, from long-term supply deficit fears to surging interest from pension funds and AI-linked investment vehicles

The tariff effect – How US Section 232 tariff speculation triggered a dramatic CME-LME arbitrage, flooded America with copper imports, and created an artificial tightness that rattled global markets

The TC/RC collapse – Treatment charges have gone deeply negative — something analysts once called impossible. Albert unpacks the smelter capacity glut, the Cobra Panama shutdown, and what minus-$100 TCs actually mean

Supply disruptions – Grasberg, El Teniente, Kamoa-Kakula: big names, big headlines — but was the disruption more psychological than physical?

Acid & the Iran conflict – Why a Middle East conflict is moving copper markets through sulfuric acid supply chains, and whether the "20% of supply at risk" headline holds up to scrutiny

Plus: A look at the week ahead — with the June 30th Section 232 announcement looming, Albert shares exactly what signals to watch.

Whether you're a seasoned trader or simply curious about the commodity powering the energy transition, this is the essential primer for everything copper in 2025-26.

Chapters

00:00 Introduction and Market Overview
01:04 Setting the Big Picture: 2025 Market Context
02:08 Why Copper Prices Are at a Structural High
05:09 US Tariffs and Market Impact
09:18 Treatment Charges and Concentrate Market Dynamics
14:37 Supply Risks and Mine Disruptions in 2025
18:01 Comparing Current Cycle to Past Bull Markets
20:01 Recent Price Movements and Market Drivers
22:40 Geopolitical Risks and Acid Supply Concerns
28:32 Looking Ahead: Key Events and Market Indicators

Copper Weekly is produced by Benchmark, the leading independent price reporting agency and market intelligence provider for critical minerals and energy transition metals.

Benchmark’s Copper Service delivers in‑depth analysis of prices, trade flows, supply and demand fundamentals, smelter and mine dynamics, and regional physical markets – helping producers, traders, consumers and investors understand what is really driving the copper market.

To learn more about Benchmark’s copper coverage, explore our data and analysis, or to arrange a demonstration of the service, visit: www.benchmarkminerals.com/copper 

You can also receive Benchmark’s free fortnightly copper newsletter, featuring market commentary and key developments, by signing up here: www.benchmarkminerals.com/newsletters 

For questions about this episode, or to speak directly with our copper analysts and team, contact us at: [email protected]