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China is in the eye of an almost perfect storm based on 4 factors: real estate sector crisis; supply chain disruptions (e.g. ports to producer margins); the electricity power crisis; and the move from wild west capitalism to Common Prosperity. The short term hit to growth will produce the first contraction in China's Q3 GDP in most peoples' living memory. But this does not herald the systemic collapse of China's economy or political system. It is a transition to a 4-5% secular rate of growth - typical of a middle income economy with unresolved structural issues.
China is in the eye of an almost perfect storm based on 4 factors: real estate sector crisis; supply chain disruptions (e.g. ports to producer margins); the electricity power crisis; and the move from wild west capitalism to Common Prosperity. The short term hit to growth will produce the first contraction in China's Q3 GDP in most peoples' living memory. But this does not herald the systemic collapse of China's economy or political system. It is a transition to a 4-5% secular rate of growth - typical of a middle income economy with unresolved structural issues.