New World Disorder is characterised by the split up of the world into mutually hostile blocs.  This lecture analyses the Economics of Alliances - and the meaning of this for economic performance and markets.  How it could impact the role of international reserve currencies?  For specific investment recommendation contact www.instrategy.com

Financial Stability or Inflation Targets: Pain Versus Gain - 4 Dilemmas 

Silicone Valley Bank Bust - the Wider Implications.  An analysis in 4 parts:
1. why and how banks collapse.
2. How Silicone Valley Bank went bust.
3. Spillover effects - direct, financial flows & the broader economy.
4. Offsets limiting the fallout: banks' capital rations, holdings of "High Quality Liquid Assets (HQLA's) & more skilled authorities..

In sum, this will cause material damage and moderate but not reverse monetary policy.  But it will be relatively contained with most of the hit being local

Globally and in Europe, nuclear is on the rise.  A lot is to do with reducing dependence on Russia.  More is about meeting climate goals.  Highly significant is the inclusion of "nuclear" (and natural gas) in the taxonomy of ESG and FFDR funds and EU funded projects like the climate chapter of the New Generation Funs

The Future History of Russia's WarThis episode has the following forecast timeline:

1. Russia gets the upper hand in a war of attrition in Ukraine. 

2. The cost is a weakening of Russia globally.  

3. The Russian upper hand in this war of attrition then forces the arming of Ukraine to win the war, which

4  results in Ukraine retaking Crimea and severing of Russian supply lines.  

5. Then comes the Russian response and escalation.  

Then comes analysis of what Russian escalation follows. 

Escalation falls into two categories: vertical in direct pursuit of war and lateral stemming from Putin seeking to stir up trouble in other theatres either intentionally or as a result of Russia's declining power 

We cover:  China's ability to fill the Russian power vacuum in the Caucuses and Central Asia; the Azerbaijan - Armenia conflict;  Iran and the Middle East etc

we conclude on the impact on economies and markets

The Cawing of Crows as predictors of natural gas prices

Earthquakes, Oil Cuts, BoJ succession & Russian War "successes": How they affect geopolitical stability, global economics and your assets. A view of events in Turkey,  Russia, Ukraine & Tokyo

The False Felicities of Markets & the Consensus Global Outlook.
Markets are important inputs to the real economy. Current optimism is based on 5 Felicities: 1. No global recession; 2. Central Banks create a new Goldilocks scenario; 3. China re-emerges as the global paradigm if growth; 4. Russia's war of attrition in Ukraine is a stalemate but exerts little global economic cost. 5. Cheap energy will remain as embargoes and price caps do not stop Russia producing and selling at discounted prices.

Energy Crisis- the end of the beginning, not the beginning of the end​.

Oil prices will reach $120 in 2022 and $140 in 2024.  Imbalance in supply and demand drives prices up.  This piece looks at: 

Demand : 
1. global avoidance of recession; 
2. China reopening .

 Supply: 
1. Under-investment in fossil fuels;  
2. The end of the Cold War deal supporting heinous autocracies in return for cheap oil; 
3.  fading US shale bonanza; 
4. Putin's losses due to embargo, price caps and a dearth of Dark Tankers; 
5. The EU non-teeth chattering gas crisis in winter but the coming squeeze on global     LNG markets as China ups its demand   
6. Venezuela

Musical Chairs in Moscow: The Epic Short Tenure of Russian General

In  the span of little more than a day: Valery Gerasimov, Chief of the General Staff of the combined Russian Armed Forces and First Deputy Defence Minister replaces Sergey Surovikin (the Butcher of Syria) as the general in command of the "Special Operation" in Ukraine.  Surovikin was appointed in October 2022. Surovikin now becomes one of Gerasimov's three deputies. Tass (but not the Kremlin) reports that Colonel-General Alexander Lapin, berated as incompetent by Putin last summer, has been reinstated as Chief of Staff for all Russian ground forces.  Meanwhile the Kremlin Press Secretary says the public should rely on official announcements about the fighting in Soledar and Bakhmut and not upon "social" media (i.e. what Yevgeny Prigozhin says about his own Wagner Group!) What is the story line that makes sense of Russia's Military Musical Chairs?