The False Felicities of Markets & the Consensus Global Outlook.
Markets are important inputs to the real economy. Current optimism is based on 5 Felicities: 1. No global recession; 2. Central Banks create a new Goldilocks scenario; 3. China re-emerges as the global paradigm if growth; 4. Russia's war of attrition in Ukraine is a stalemate but exerts little global economic cost. 5. Cheap energy will remain as embargoes and price caps do not stop Russia producing and selling at discounted prices.