It's time to welcome back Chris DeMuth for his monthly state of the markets. For this December 2023 edition, Chris discusses what's on his mind at the end of the year, Merger Arb, $ROIV, $IMVT, thoughts on $SAVE, views on 2024 and lessons learned from 2023. 
For more information about Rangeley Capital, please visit: http://www.rangeleycapital.com/
Chapters:
[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Alphasense
[1:46] Chris' thoughts, high level, for December 2023: merger arb
[2:44] Roivant $ROIV
[8:27] Immunovant, Inc. $IMVT
[13:44] Thoughts on $SAVE, antitrust, merger arb implications when government blocks M&A;
[26:18] Views on 2024 and lessons learned from 2023
[36:23] CVRs
[42:55] Final thoughts
Today's episode is sponsored by: Alphasense
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Chris DeMuth's State of the Markets December 2023

Yet Another Value Podcast is a new podcast from Andrew Walker, the founder of yetanothervalueblog.com/. We interview top investors and dive deep into stocks and companies they are currently working on and investing in. While nothing on this channel is investing advice and everyone should do their own diligence, our goal is to frequently feature edgy and actionable value and/or event driven ideas.

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Julian Lin, Founder of Best of Breed Growth Stocks, an investment newsletter, joins the podcast to discuss his thesis on Reddit, Inc. (NYSE: RDDT).
$RDDT write-up on Seeking Alpha: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4686257-reddit-julian-lins-top-conviction-idea
Chapters:
[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: YCharts
[1:22] What is Reddit $RDDT and why is it interesting to Julian
[2:58] $RDDT bull case
[14:09] Network effects
[20:46] $RDDT bear case: when will they become profitable? What are they spending R&D; on?
[30:45] Valuation
[33:48] $RDDT vs. tier 2 social media platforms (Pinterest, Twitter, SnapChat) / mismanagement
[45:27] Valuation cont'd
[56:53] $RDDT Growth strategy
[1:02:23] $RDDT's Biggest misperceptions
This episode is sponsored by our friends at YCharts
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Best of Breed Growth Stocks' Julian Lin thesis on king of the meme stocks, Reddit $RDDT

Matt Turk joins the podcast to discuss his thesis on Target Hospitality Corp. (NASDAQ: TH), one of North America's largest providers of vertically integrated modular accommodations and value-added hospitality services.
Links:
https://www.bamsec.com/filing/114036124014503/4?cik=1859285
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=31s6todiuM8
Matt's YouTube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/@given2trade4
Chapters:
[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Fundamental Edge
[1:53] What's going on with Target Hospitality $TH and why its interesting to Matt
[8:18] $TH Corporate history and why it's important / 2020 letter compared to 2024 letter from Arrow Group
[31:22] History cont'd of $TH with Arrow Group / why this situations reminds Andrew of $HRT situation
[39:11] Government contract / tail risks
[41:54] Bull case / comparables / rollups
[49:13] Additional risks
[58:50] Likelihood of closing and talking through potential buyout prices[1:04:50] Final thoughts
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Matt Turk on why corporate history matters with Target Hospitality $TH

Scott Miller, CIO of Greenhaven Road, joins the podcast to discuss his thesis on PAR Technologies (NYSE: PAR), where more than 70,000 restaurants in more than 110 countries use PAR’s restaurant point-of-sale, digital ordering, loyalty and back-office software solutions as well as industry-leading hardware and drive-thru offerings (according to the company's website).
Voss Capital write-up: https://vosscapital.substack.com/p/pars-path-to-80-redux
Greenhaven Road Q4 investor letter ($PAR mentioned): https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5498841ce4b0311b8ddc012b/t/65bd570c0ba5792db938f9a6/1706907404785/Greenhaven+Road+-+2023+Q4+FINAL_.pdf
For more information about Greenhaven Road, please visit: https://www.greenhavenroad.com/
Chapters:
[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: YCharts
[1:30] Overview of PAR Technologies $PAR and why Scott is excited about the idea
[4:18] What are the "haters" missing with $PAR
[7:54] Burger King customer win
[9:42] Competitive landscape
[15:20] Why $PAR more than a Point of Sale play; additional verticals
[19:04] How do they win more customers / cloud-based vs. not-cloud based point of sale matter
[25:28] $PAR recent acquisitions, execution risk / convenience stores
[33:55] Growth runway / what keeps Scott up at night about $PAR
[38:24] Lumpiness of customer wins/announcements
[41:30] Final thoughts on $PAR
This episode is sponsored by our friends at YCharts. Numbers and data are one thing, but how you communicate and scale the delivery of these insights to clients is the real challenge. The reality is, people are more inclined to invest their attention and hard-earned dollars when presented with a captivating story and a skilled storyteller. YCharts empowers you with a fully customizable report and proposal offering, allowing you to expertly guide and control the narrative during client meetings. With over 30 modules for returns, risk, allocations, exposures, and holdings breakdowns, you can effectively showcase your strategies’ strengths and your competitors’ weaknesses. To top it off, YCharts Proposals has built-in sharing capabilities so you can create and share report templates for seamless collaboration among colleagues, enabling your team to gather new assets with ease. 
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Greenhaven Road's Scott Miller shares his thoughts on point of sale business, PAR Technologies $PAR

Patrick Fleury, CFO of TeraWulf Inc. (NASDAQ: WULF), joins the podcast to discuss everything you need to know about bitcoin mining.
TeraWulf owns and operates vertically integrated, environmentally clean bitcoin mining facilities in the United States.
For more information and to subscribe to TeraWulf, please visit: https://www.terawulf.com/
Chapters:
[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Santangel's Review
[1:34] Patrick Fleury's background / difference between oil and gas mining to bitcoin mining at TeraWulf
[6:10] Defining hash rate and hash price
[12:48] Halving
[14:10] ROI for every new bitcoin miner they build
[19:04] Cost of capital / power costs
[24:33] Economies of scale and growth for growth's sake
[28:05] ROI on a 20-year investment in bitcoin miner (when considering halvings happen every 4 years) / cooling / low cost mining strategy
[33:41] What happens if bitcoin price drops (from mining operation perspective)
[38:13] Why issuing shares and directing all cash flows to pay down debt the best use of capital?
[40:15] Valuation and where Patrick thinks bitcoin miners should trade / replacement costs on assets in the ground
[45:38] Mining facilities, power, AI plays, turning over to HFC and AI machines / power capacity, source of power
[54:43] Nautilus facility / bitcoin mining tax / expanding internationally
[100:16] Capital allocation
[1:01:36] M&A; / value discrepancies / final thoughts
Today's episode is sponsored by: Santangel's Review
Finding the right hedge fund cap intro event isn't just about the size; it’s about the value it brings to your time. This month's sponsor, Santangel's Review, offers something unique for fund managers and allocators.
Founded in 2010, Santangel’s hosts three Cap Intro Roundtables each year - two in New York City and one at Fenway Park in Boston. These events stand out for their focus on quality over quantity, attracting some of the most prestigious endowments, foundations, and family offices worldwide. 
The secret sauce: Santangel’s spotlights undiscovered talent. Managers you don't necessarily see at other industry conferences.
Attendees take part in eight one-on-one meetings, intermixed with ample networking opportunities. In an industry built on relationships, Santangel's fosters some of the most valuable connections.
Just go to Santangels.com— S-A-N-T-A-N-G-E-L-S dot com to learn more and request an invitation.
If you’re a manager or allocator who is serious about maximizing your time, you'll want to be a part of the Santangel's Roundtable. Click here: https://santangelsreview.com/

TeraWulf's $WULF Patrick Fleury on everything you need to know about bitcoin mining

Devin LaSarre, Founder and Editor of the Invariant Newsletter on Substack, joins the podcast to discuss his write-up and thesis on Haypp Group (HAYPP.ST).
Quick description on Haypp Group (according to their website): The Haypp Group is spearheading the global transformation from smoking to healthier product alternatives. With origins in Scandinavia our extensive experience from pioneering markets in smoke free alternatives, as well as being a leader in the e-commerce sector, we now fully take our vision to a global scale. With eleven e-commerce brands, the Haypp group is present in seven countries where we served more than 950 000 active customers in 2023.
Haypp Group write-up: https://invariant.substack.com/p/haypp-group-nicotine-pouch-trend
For more information and to subscribe to Devin LaSarre's newsletter, Invariant, please visit: https://invariant.substack.com/
You can Follow Devin LaSarre on Twitter/X @DevinLaSarre: https://twitter.com/DevinLaSarre
Chapters:

[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Santangel's Review
[1:36] What is the Haypp Group and why it's interesting to Devin and overview of the smoking alternatives industry
[6:52] Demand for nicotine and oral products (pouches, snus, dips)
[13:44] Haypp Group - investing thesis, why attractive idea to Devin
[17:44] What is differentiated about Haypp Group; why is this not the most competitive, lowest margin business
[23:21] What's a "Zyn-fluencer" and marketing challenges
[26:24] Customer acquisition costs / focus on SEO
[33:06] Haypp Group's pricing and cost structure
[41:01] Alternative smoking product consumer trends, switching up brands
[48:30] Addressing risk factors / Haypp's moat
[57:07] Insights business
[59:47] Regulation risk with selling alternative smoking products online
[1:07:23] Valuation
[1:12:32] Where alpha potentially comes from since Haypp stock's double in last 6 months
[1:18:06] Low capex
[1:21:30] Switching costs from cigarettes to alternative smoking products
Today's episode is sponsored by: Santangel's Review
Finding the right hedge fund cap intro event isn't just about the size; it’s about the value it brings to your time. This month's sponsor, Santangel's Review, offers something unique for fund managers and allocators.
Founded in 2010, Santangel’s hosts three Cap Intro Roundtables each year - two in New York City and one at Fenway Park in Boston. These events stand out for their focus on quality over quantity, attracting some of the most prestigious endowments, foundations, and family offices worldwide. 
The secret sauce: Santangel’s spotlights undiscovered talent. Managers you don't necessarily see at other industry conferences.
Attendees take part in eight one-on-one meetings, intermixed with ample networking opportunities. In an industry built on relationships, Santangel's fosters some of the most valuable connections.
Just go to Santangels.com— S-A-N-T-A-N-G-E-L-S dot com to learn more and request an invitation.
If you’re a manager or allocator who is serious about maximizing your time, you'll want to be a part of the Santangel's Roundtable. Click here: https://santangelsreview.com/

Chris DeMuth's State of the Markets December 2023

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