Jeffrey Cleveland reacts to the Fed decision to cut rates by 25 basis points, with three dissents. He thinks unemployment will tick up and PCE will fall slightly next year, leading to the Fed funds rate lower than the median now. He doesn’t see this as a hawkish cut based on the bond market reaction, but “we’ll have to see how Chair Powell frames things.” He wants to know why Fed members dissented; he worries most when they all agree.

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