In this episode of Click Beta on Excess Returns, Cameron Dawson, Dave Nadig, and Matt Zeigler dive into the trust crisis in markets, the implications of AI-driven CapEx, and how small lessons from life translate into investing wisdom. From the reliability of payroll data to the “bubbles all the way down” problem, the conversation blends deep market insights with practical rituals for navigating uncertainty.

Topics Covered

• The decay of institutional trust and unreliable economic data

• Public vs. private data and how investors should interpret it

• “Good news vs. bad news” in markets and earnings reactions

• AI-related CapEx, margin pressure, and the sustainability of Big Tech’s dominance

• Winner-take-all dynamics in AI and parallels to the fiber boom

• Productivity gains: small businesses vs. mega-cap tech

• Investing lessons from technical analysis, rituals, and “last box” routines

• The importance of presence, humility vs. hubris, and team culture

• Democratization of alternatives, fee/tax efficiency, and “hassle efficiency”

Timestamps
00:00 – The challenge of trusting economic data
03:13 – Who do you trust anymore?
05:07 – Public vs. private data and the “Strange Landing” thesis
07:38 – Good news, bad news dynamics
10:20 – Earnings estimates and labor data gaps
12:00 – AI-driven CapEx and narrow growth drivers
15:00 – Valuation multiples and eroding free cash flow margins
18:00 – Winner-take-all risks in AI
22:00 – Small business productivity vs. mega-cap adoption
27:00 – Rituals, technical analysis, and “the flush deck”
31:00 – Always say it out loud: transparency in investing
37:00 – Leadership lessons: presence, colleagues, and culture
45:00 – Democratization of alternatives and “hassle efficiency”
53:40 – Wrapping up: trust, skepticism, and humility

What happens when liquidity floods the system, narratives drive markets, and the international investing playbook gets rewritten in real time? In this episode of Click Beta, Cameron Dawson joins Matt Zeigler and Dave Nadig for a wide-ranging conversation that blends sharp macro insight with unfiltered commentary on global markets, thematic investing, valuation risk, and even concert etiquette. From the Mag 7 to Labubu toys to the Church of the SubGenius, this is finance as you've never heard it before.

🔍 Topics Covered:

• Why international earnings have flatlined since 2007 vs. 150% U.S. earnings growth

• The role of liquidity in driving asset prices and masking risk

• Whether dollar weakness could trigger an international bull market

• The earnings dynamics behind U.S. and European bank rallies

• Capital flows, tariffs, and the sustainability of international outperformance

• The search for a "liquidity killer" and the shadow finance risk

• Why thematic investing often masks lazy portfolio construction

• The behavioral case for income-focused investing (even when it makes no sense)

• The future of Total Addressable Markets (TAMs), cult brands, and cultural investing

• Cameron Dawson’s stance on standing at concerts—and why you should too

⏱️ Timestamps:

00:00 – Global earnings: U.S. vs. International and EM
02:00 – Ground rules and intro banter
03:30 – Why international investing is back in the conversation
06:00 – Earnings stagnation outside the U.S.
08:00 – Capital flows and the dollar’s role in international bull markets
10:00 – Are European banks investable again?
13:00 – The fairy tale of tariffs turning into CapEx
15:00 – Liquidity as the market’s ultimate panacea
18:00 – Shadow banking and the private credit risk stack
21:00 – Valuation as amplifier, not timing tool
23:00 – What could kill the liquidity narrative?
26:00 – Are clients chasing the wrong themes?
28:00 – The case against lazy thematic investing
32:00 – The Church of the SubGenius and embracing small TAMs
35:00 – Cultural signals, talismans, and deeper connections
38:00 – Why do income products exist? Exploring irrational demand
43:00 – Trust structures and gaming distributions
44:30 – Standing at concerts: A live debate
49:00 – The Ozzy Osbourne legacy and Tina Turner on meditation
51:00 – Where to find the hosts and guest online

In this episode of Click Beta, Matt Zeigler, Jason Buck, andDave Nadig dive deep into the paradoxical world of modern markets wheregeopolitical chaos meets relentless bullish sentiment. From potential World WarIII scenarios to AI companions whispering in your ear, the hosts explore whytraditional market logic seems to have taken a permanent vacation. They discusseverything from the "buy the dip" mentality that refuses to die, towhether behavioral finance textbooks should just be thrown in the trash. It's awide-ranging conversation that touches on energy shocks, the death ofdiversification, and why Gen X might reluctantly have to save us all. MainTopics Covered:

- Market Irrationality & Geopolitical Events

- Why bombing Iran led to markets going up instead of down,and the complete disconnect between headline risk and market behavior The Deathof Selling

- How retail conditioning and systematic flows have createda market where nobody wants to sell, even during potential global conflictsEnergy as the Real Risk

- Why oil price spikes worry the hosts more than stockmarket volatility, and what $250-300 oil could mean for the economy MinskyMoments & Wile E. Coyote Markets

- The hosts' framework for understanding when stabilitybreeds instability and how long markets can run on thin air InternationalMarkets Outperformance

- The surprising reality that US markets are actuallyunderperforming globally, and why Americans don't seem to care AI and theFuture of Cheating at Life

- Discussion of Cluey's $16M raise to help people cheat ateverything, and what this means for human authenticity Gen X as ReluctantElders

- How the generation that never wanted responsibility mighthave to step up to fix local communities The Mid-Tier Apocalypse

- Why everything is becoming either luxury or garbage, withnothing affordable left in between Behavioral Finance Reality Check

- Whether studying cognitive biases actually helps when evenDanny Kahneman admits he falls for them all

n this episode of Click Beta, Dave Nadig, Matt Zeigler, and Jason Buck go deep on the messy realities of U.S. fiscal policy, the politics of taxation and spending, and what it really means to “get our fiscal house in order.” They dig into the latest tax bill, the implications for business owners and local economies, and the broader consequences for American hegemony and cost of capital. Along the way, they explore MMT, VATs, FX sentiment, AI's role in tax planning, and the surprising policy influence of farmers. It’s a candid, unscripted, and often hilarious look at the issues that actually matter.Main Topics Covered:Why the math of austerity doesn’t add upWhat a “fiscal house in order” really looks likeThe hidden consequences of the new tax billState vs. federal policy shiftsLabor, wage incentives, and restaurant economicsMMT, bond markets, and inflation dynamicsThe underrated power of FX as a policy gaugePrivate credit, pork spending, and political realitiesTax planning as the new alpha for advisorsExchange funds, 351 ETFs, and solving concentrated wealthThe commoditization of portfolios and rise of tax-focused RIAs

In this episode of Click Beta, Matt Zeigler, Dave Nadig, and Jason Buck dive into the complex state of the U.S. economy — from recession signals and tariffs to shifting consumer behavior and surprising cultural trends. With no Google allowed and a shared mission to cut through the noise, the crew brings their personal anecdotes, macro analysis, and economic skepticism to the table. If you’ve ever wondered how the people behind the scenes of financial media actually talk when the cameras are off, this is that conversation.

Topics Covered:

Why it “feels” like a recession — even if it’s not official

The bullwhip effect and what shipping data is telling us

Consumer slowdown: anecdotes, vibes, and Domino’s earnings

Why tariffs may create hidden entrepreneurial opportunities

Services vs goods recessions: which one hits harder?

Brand winners and losers: the surprising Chili’s comeback

Is Gen X the forgotten generation?

How generations might need to collaborate to move forward

Do we still care about art, or are we remixing ourselves into oblivion?

Join Matt Zeigler, Jason Buck, and Dave Nadig in this unfiltered and dynamic episode of Click Beta from Excess Returns. Feeling "stupid and exhausted" from their daily grind in markets and business, the trio ditches the polished analysis for a raw, behind-the-scenes rant session. With a mix of optimism, pessimism, and plenty of tangents, they dive into pre-agreed and surprise topics—no Google allowed—offering a blend of humor, skepticism, and unscripted insights. From AI breakthroughs to geopolitical powder kegs, this episode is a rollercoaster of ideas, seasoned with their signature banter and a touch of nihilism.

**Main Topics Covered:**

- **AI’s Right and Left Tails:** The hosts explore AI’s potential for transformative breakthroughs (like rewriting Social Security’s COBOL code) versus its risks, including trust erosion and overhyped promises.

- **Tariffs and Economic Policy:** They debate the optimistic case for tariffs reshaping U.S. manufacturing and tax policy (e.g., a VAT system) against the reality of roboticization and political chaos.

- **Geopolitical Tensions:** From the U.S. as a fading global bully to speculative left-tail events like Arctic shipping disputes or an accidental spark in Africa, they ponder the end of Pax Americana.

- **Community and Legacy:** The conversation shifts to pro-social thinking—how AI might free up time for community, contrasted with musings on legacy, ancestry, and whether it even matters.

- **Surprise Topics:** - *Canadian Animosity Toward the U.S.:* Is Canada’s current patriotism a fleeting protest or a lasting shift?

- *Broadening Perspectives:* Matt seeks ways to inspire long-term, pro-social thinking in everyday life.

- *D.C. Real Estate and Political Scapegoats:* Jason speculates on buying the dip in D.C. housing and Elon Musk as Trump’s potential fall guy.

No investment advice here—just three market-weary friends riffing on the world as they see it. Like, subscribe, and share if you enjoyed the chaos!

In this episode of Click Beta, Matt Zeigler, Dave Nadig, and Jason Buck bring their financial expertise to the table for an unfiltered discussion about today's most pressing economic issues. Unlike other finance podcasts that chase headlines, Click Beta aims to show viewers how industry professionals actually think through complex topics behind the scenes. The hosts dissect current events with a focus on practical implications rather than sensationalism, drawing from their daily interactions with clients and markets.

Key topics covered:

Strategic Reserves & Sovereign Wealth Funds - A critical examination of recent proposals for a US cryptocurrency reserve and whether sovereign wealth funds make sense for America's economic structure

Private Credit Markets - An insider's look at the risks and opportunities in private credit, with warnings about illiquid assets being packaged in liquid wrappers

Media Consumption & Analysis - How financial news is framed and packaged, with advice on finding reliable information amid the noise

Investment Philosophy - Personal perspectives on portfolio construction in uncertain times, diversification strategies, and the psychology behind financial decision-making

Through their conversation, the hosts offer valuable insights for investors trying to separate meaningful market movements from political theater while maintaining a long-term perspective.