In today's Cloud Wars Minute, I analyze the extraordinary RPO growth at Microsoft, Oracle, Google Cloud, and AWS and what it signals about AI demand.

Highlights

00:03 — We've got another example here where, in the greatest growth market the world has ever known, we are working with some big numbers that put the law of big numbers to the test here. So, if you look at the four hyperscalers, and I go in order of the size of their backlog or RPO, you've got Microsoft, Oracle, Google Cloud, and AWS.

00:29 — So this is fully committed business. It's fully contracted and not yet recognized as revenue. So this is what's coming down the road, to look into the pipeline, in the future, these companies have — this isn't some guesstimate of what they hope they'll get. This is signed, contracted business. So this is one of the factors, probably the key factor, behind why you see these CapEx numbers approaching or exceeding $200 billion.

01:09 — Now that has led to a couple of these companies entering into the debt markets to try to fund this data center expansion and all that enormous CapEx outlay that they've got to go through. In turn, a couple of these companies for a quarter or two had negative cash flows, and that's got some people on Wall Street unable to comprehend it. The world's coming to an end. What are we going to do?

01:46 — I think the perspective is being switched here, right? Traditionally, the idea is bad. You don't want to have negative cash flow. Okay, that's pretty basic. I think we got that. The difference is there have never been a market with a size, a total addressable market , anything like this, growing at the rate this is. Look at these latest numbers for the four hyperscalers.

02:23 — Oracle, off a much smaller revenue base, has this huge future business coming in: $638 billion in RPO, growing at 363%. Google Cloud had a huge jump this past Q2, $514 billion in backlog, up 390%, and a resurgent AWS posted its biggest backlog number ever, $496 billion, and I believe that growth rate of 154% for its backlog is much higher than any they've reported over the last five or six quarters.

04:07 — So I think it's significant, but I also think it's being vastly overblown. I just want to say one more time: $2.3 trillion. Now, that's not like a TAM figure. Somebody's saying, "Oh, we think the market for new scooters is going to be $2.3 trillion." These are four companies, just four , not the whole tech industry, and these are their signed, contracted, committed figures for what they've got in their backlog or RPO.

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In today's Cloud Wars Minute, I compare Google Cloud, Microsoft, and AWS to reveal which hyperscaler is winning the most new business.

Highlights

00:15 — While all of them had terrific quarters, I'd have to rate it this way: Google Cloud was far and away the best. AWS had a terrific quarter, especially for the way it had been performing before that. Microsoft, at its phenomenal size, had a very good quarter. It's just not growing as quickly, not winning as much new types of business in that way, as the other two.

01:44 — So we had Microsoft go from $54.5 billion to $59.3 billion. So it added $4.8 billion in new revenue in Q2. For Google Cloud, $20 billion to $24.8 billion; it also added $4.8 billion. AWS, $37.6 billion to $42.2 billion. It added $4.6 billion.

02:32 — Yet Google Cloud gained as much new revenue last quarter as Microsoft did, and Google Cloud gained more new revenue than AWS did. So we find that the mix of products and services, the fit to what businesses need right now, Google Cloud is matching what Microsoft's doing, matching or exceeding what AWS is doing. So the size differential is becoming less significant now.

03:27 — What we see with this analysis of the numbers is that Microsoft is not continuing to extend that size differential. The others are chopping into that, and particularly for Google Cloud, at this size and with its growth rate, we see that happening. So, you know, how is this possible? And I think it all comes down to this notion of, you know, the customers have a terrific set of choices here.

05:02 — But in terms of — you look right here, right now — the new business that Google Cloud is winning, they are matching or beating their competitors here, and I think we're going to see that continue with the momentum that Google Cloud has.

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In today's Cloud Wars AI Minute, I explain how Microsoft's AI agent momentum could transform business applications at scale.

Highlights

00:00 — So we're now hearing, according to Microsoft, that it has 40 million agents deployed now in the Microsoft ecosystem. Now compare that to the 30 million seats that it actually has sold for the M365 Copilot, and that really starts to show us that AI agent creation and things of this nature are starting to take off when we're starting to see more than one-to-one ratios here.

00:33 — So this is a really big situation for Microsoft. It's actually a really good signal that custom agents and agents that are being built are starting to get more value off the backside. Now we can't necessarily completely get to this level because what you'll see is a lot of these agents are probably really simple right now.

00:54 — But with some of the new applications coming out and the focus that Microsoft also came out and announced — that they are looking at going through and producing a Super App Copilot — and this was something that Satya Nadella just talked about in the news just last week.

01:13 — So when we think about this and we start thinking about how is it that Microsoft's going to start combining all of its different Copilot assets or its AI agent assets, it really opens up a door where we might start seeing a much bigger multiplier effect happening on the number of agents created.

01:32 — Due to the fact that they're going to make it not so confusing to be able to determine where to get started and be able to help you get this all down. So this is really exciting news, and it's really a good thing for why you should start looking and understanding these agents because they're really starting to take off as business applications themselves.

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In today’s Cloud Wars Minute, I break down Microsoft’s push to protect open-weight AI models and why the debate over openness could shape the future of the AI ecosystem.

Highlights

00:09 — Microsoft is among more than 20 tech companies, including NVIDIA, Meta, and Palantir, that have issued an open letter urging U.S. lawmakers to slow down in placing restrictions on open-weight AI models. These are models that users can modify and run on their own infrastructure.

00:38 — The backlash from the companies comes in light of discussions within the U.S. government about potentially restricting access to Chinese open-weight AI models in the U.S. The administration's floated the idea of potential restrictions or sanctions involving Chinese open-weight models around concerns about copying other AI models, intellectual property theft, and national security.

01:06 — The tech companies that signed the letter argue that open-weight models strengthen competition, and with technology benefits broadly shared instead of being concentrated into a few hands, and that, in fact, relying entirely on closed models is not inherently safe because they can be breached, misused, or fail in ways that outsiders can't detect.

01:30 — They say that keeping AI advancements in a small circle of companies just compounds that risk. Sharing the letter on his personal X account, Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella said, "Open-weight models are essential to a healthy AI ecosystem. Together with others across our industry, we are outlining a path for open-weight models to strengthen American competitiveness and expand economic opportunity while protecting national security."

02:14 — This is yet another example of how the democratization of AI is being promoted by tech companies. In my opinion, the idea of collaboration and openness has made it much easier for the public to trust AI. Not only does this strengthen the position of the companies themselves, but it also means that more people will benefit safely and securely from the potential of AI technologies.

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In today's Cloud Wars Minute, I look at why Palantir's AI strategy is resonating with customers and disrupting the software industry's established order.

Highlights

00:03 — Well, we had a fascinating earnings report and earnings call with Palantir recently. A couple of things happened. Its growth rate soared. It almost doubled its growth in Q2, up 93% to over $1.8 billion.

00:19 — But intriguingly, the story behind this growth now is one that CEO Alex Karp is doubling down on, and that is to cut directly against the grain of how traditionally the software industry has worked. He feels that there's too much power being consolidated among the tech vendors, particularly now the AI labs and the AI model companies.

00:55 — Now, is there a direct correlation between the 93% growth rate and this refreshing, new, different customer-oriented approach from Palantir? I think there is. Whether you think Karp's antagonism toward the entrenched order is overblown or not, you've got to look at the financial results. Palantir is outperforming every major tech vendor on Earth.

02:36 — What Karp is promising, he said, what Palantir is offering, is a new, better way that allows customers to keep control of that data, keep the benefits of that data, keep what he calls the alpha, and let them control their own outcomes instead of turning over their data to model companies.

04:36 — I just find myself throughout the call listening and watching Karp, who always wears a white T-shirt. He is just completely unabashed in not holding back and stating his opinions. I think we need more of that in this business, especially at these very critical times when businesses are betting their futures on what's going to happen here.

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In today's Cloud Wars Minute, I break down OpenAI's decision to make GPT-5.6 the preferred model for Microsoft 365 Copilot and why AI efficiency is becoming an increasingly important competitive advantage.

Highlights

00:09 — It's fair to say that OpenAI has had a changeable relationship with Microsoft over the past few years. However, ties between the two companies have always remained strong. To that end, OpenAI has announced that GPT-5.6 has become the preferred model in Microsoft 365 Copilot, which includes Word, Excel, PowerPoint, Copilot Chat, Teams.

00:33 — Now, for context, this is OpenAI's latest flagship model, which the company claims delivers higher quality outputs and stronger performance per dollar spent, and this efficiency is increasingly important as more work shifts to AI models.

00:58 — For Excel, there'll be deeper data analysis and faster insights in PowerPoint. Copilot will be able to create more polished presentations with less manual effort. Meanwhile, Copilot Chat benefits from GPT-5.6's improved reasoning and productivity capabilities for everyday tasks.

01:28 — For me, though, the biggest benefit is this idea of improved efficiency — the notion of getting the most out of every token and gaining more value from the tools you're using. I think this will become a new battleground moving forward, not just for model developers who balance power and budget friendliness, but also for providers of AI tools like Microsoft, who need to show their customers that they're making the best choices in how these products are powered.

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In today's Cloud Wars Minute, I break down the reshuffled hyperscaler rankings and what AWS's comeback means for the AI economy.

Highlights

00:03 — The third hyperscaler reported its numbers late last week. That was Amazon's AWS unit. Fantastic quarter for AWS. Best in four or five years. It had what I called an awesome Q2, and in doing so, we've seen a complete reshuffling of the growth standings among the hyperscalers.

01:18 — Microsoft, for the same period, its fiscal Q4 grew 27% to $59.3 billion, and Google Cloud was up an incredible 82% to almost $25 billion. We see Google Cloud and now AWS on a very nice continuous upswing, while Microsoft has leveled off.

03:05— Inside AWS, the backlog soared, up 154% to almost $500 billion. Andy Jassy said Amazon will spend in 2026 $220 billion on CapEx, almost all of which will go toward building the data centers necessary to fund this expansion in cloud and AI.

04:19 — The smallest backlog number of the four hyperscalers is AWS at $496 billion. Microsoft is around $675 billion, Google Cloud is $514 billion, and Oracle is about $636 billion. Together they represent well over $2 trillion in backlog.

05:12 — I think it's great seeing AWS back in high-growth mode. It makes the competition better, and it certainly is a great thing for customers, who now have choices of fantastic suppliers across the four hyperscalers: AWS, Google Cloud, Microsoft, and Oracle.

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In today's Cloud Wars Minute, I examine why SAP's biggest competitive challenge may soon come from OpenAI and Anthropic rather than traditional enterprise software rivals.

Highlights

00:00 — SAP released its Q2 numbers last week, and a couple of interesting things happened there. First of all, strong Q2 cloud revenue growth, 24%. But even higher than that was its backlog growth, which went up 26%. CEO Christian Klein tied that specifically to the company's transformation, started about two years ago, to shift more and more of the sales effort from the direct channel to the indirect channel.

00:56 — It had resellers whose big concern a number of years ago was, "Well, what margin am I going to get? What discount do I get?" Today, the focus, through the efforts of Chief Partner Officer Karl Fahrbach and Klein, has shifted very, very much toward, "How do we get successful outcomes? How do we ensure these AI deployments happen smoothly, rapidly, and effectively at the customer site?"

01:29 — It's about $7.2 billion. Within that, the Cloud ERP Suite was up 27% to $6.4 billion, and the current cloud backlog, that 26% jump, pushed it to $26.3 billion. It said growth for full-year 2026 will be somewhere between 23% and 25%. I've penciled it in here as 24%, and that will come in right at about $30 billion.

02:28 — Klein said, "The growth for our indirect channel in Q2 again significantly outpaced our direct channel growth," and this reflects, he said, a successful go-to-market transformation. He has revised the company's leadership, its product portfolio, the impression the market has about ERP and what SAP Cloud ERP means, and how the whole notion at the highest level of the autonomous enterprise sinks in.

04:20 — Now there's enterprise applications, agents, AI, and data vendors, and this growth streak it's had in the mid-20s has been very impressive. So the biggest challenge SAP has going forward will come, in some form that's unclear right now, from OpenAI and Anthropic, and exactly how those they are going to parlay their early focus on models into the whole agentic AI movement in the agents and workflow space.

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In today’s Cloud Wars Minute, I explore OpenAI’s bold move into AI-powered consumer hardware and what it reveals about the future of trust in artificial intelligence.

Highlights

00:03 — OpenAI is adding yet another string to its bow as it becomes increasingly recognized as more than just its flagship ChatGPT product. Now, the company is reportedly developing its first consumer hardware device: a human-like AI companion that lives in the home.

00:21 — The report suggests that OpenAI is creating a portable, screenless AI smart speaker, not the AI phone that many people are expecting. As you might expect, the device will integrate with ChatGPT and handle questions, send messages, play media, and enable smart home controls.

00:38 — All pretty comparable to the existing smart speakers on the market, like Amazon’s Echo. However, OpenAI’s device is also expected to include cameras and sensors to get a better understanding of where it is and the context. While mechanical moving elements will give it more presence. Over time, the AI will learn about its owner and become increasingly personalized.

01:01 — Now, beyond the obvious—and by that I mean OpenAI’s potential foray into consumer electronics and all the potential battles that might start between the leaders in that space—there’s something really interesting about the ambition here and what it says about where we are today. Not long ago, the discussion was all about trust.

01:21 — Could we get consumers to trust AI enough to get the most from it? Looking at this investment, I think the answer is yes. This is an AI that not only observes and listens to its owner, but actively changes to adapt to their likes, dislikes, and personalities, passively and without waiting for requests. This is a big jump.

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In today’s Cloud Wars Minute, I compare Microsoft’s latest cloud results with Google Cloud’s accelerating momentum.

Highlights

00:09 — Microsoft Cloud revenue was almost $60 billion for the quarter, up 27%. The RPO, as I said, was up 84%. It’s now the biggest RPO total, slightly ahead of Oracle. Microsoft Cloud: $678 billion for that. It said that Azure revenue was up 43% and that its revenue for the fiscal year ended June 30 exceeded $100 billion for Azure.

01:46 — So if we look at the last five quarters from Microsoft, the growth rate: 27%. Starting in Q2, the present, going back five quarters: 27%, 29%, 26%, 26%, 27%. So relatively flat over that period of time. The 29% jumped up a little, but the others, all 27s and 26s.

02:14 — Over those same five quarters, Google Cloud’s growth rate has absolutely soared, and the trajectory, the arc of its growth, representing customer demand in the marketplace, has been remarkable. So again, starting from the just-finished quarter and going backward in time: 82%, 63%, 48%, 34%, and 32% growth rates.

02:49 — What we’re talking about here is the arc of the growth. Google Cloud is getting a much bigger share of what’s happening here. It’s winning more business. It’s taking deals away from Microsoft, AWS, and perhaps Oracle as well, and they’re winning a lot of new business.

04:40 — So we’ll get AWS numbers later today. I’ll be following up next week with some insights into that and give the head-to-head comparison. It is an extraordinary time, but the ultimate truth is coming from the customers and where they are deciding to make their investments as they move into the AI Economy.

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