CodyWillard

Q. Cody, I think it could be very interesting to hear your thoughts on this market situation and please let us know what are you thinking as possible action for a market rebound or if it keep falling. Thanks

A. Feet to fire, my take on the market for the near-term is that I think all this day-to-day volatility and big sell-offs are wearing out the bulls and the longs and weak-handed traders. That has probably turned the path of least resistance lower for the next few days or weeks. Again this is feet-to-fire analysis and not something I'm trying to game. I'm going to scale into the best stocks on an opportunistic basis in the context of the broader market near-term moves. My overall analysis continues to point to further bubble-blowing bull market action in years ahead. And regardless, I want to buy Revolutionary stocks that we can own, at least part of our positions in, forever.

Q. Right now I am 42% cash as hedged but I think it could be more interesting work on shorting something. Just now I am thinking we could have bought $SPXU, or something like that, Just ideas...

A. Are you sure trying to game a near-term market action move is a sustainable and helpful kind of trade for you and your money personally? Just think about that 10,000 days concept I keep trying to hammer home before you do anything. Other than that, I do think $BKS is acting like it might break down lower again, so maybe look at starting something short-wise there if you do decide to take some risks on the short-side. I'm also constantly trying to find the hyped-up bubble stocks like $JRJC and $DGLY, both of which, by the way, are getting absolutely crushed again today and are at new lows since I cited them.

Q. How do you handle not stopping yourself out of all your stocks in a down market?

A. There's no easy way to manage broader market sell-offs sustainably, but you need to make sure you have a plan for them anyway. Here's the simplest way to answer your question: If the broader market sells off 10% and many of our highest-beta stocks, including, say $FB and $GOOG and $AMBA and $SNDK and so on were down 15% or more from their current levels, would you be able to sleep at night? Would you have the money and the guys to nibble some more on them while they're down? If you manage your buying and trimming and nibbling and selling your stock portfolio properly, the broader market moves can fade in importance anyway.

Q. Cody, high five on $HIMX. Guess "discipline' has two meanings, huh? -- discipline to trim when things are great and flying high, and then discipline the next day not to say." Why did I trim only a fifth of what i had,"( But I'm being strong.) BTW, although I guess it's usually a judgment call, but when you advise to trim, let's say, one-fifth (and sometimes you say "one-fifth of my profit or one-fifth of my gain"), is it roughly one-fifth of total market value/one-fifth of shares or options you're holding/literally one-fifth of your gain . . . or what?

A. I mean 1/5 of my total number of shares in that particular stock when I say "I'm going to trim 1/5th of my common stock position." As for the "why did I only sell 'part' at the high, instead of all of it?" logic, read this. I wrote it seven years ago when I was about to quit running my hedge fund to go to TV: "For the past five years of running money I didn’t even have an alarm clock. There was no need. The knot in my gut that came with the pressure of running other people’s money swelled long before the sun rose each morning. For four and a half years I was up and attentive at every single market opening. Such steadfast dedication was exhilarating . . . and exhausting. Running money is unlike any other job because you can quantify your results at any moment. And then you and your investors can gauge just how stupid or smart you are at that moment. Of course, a good money manager never really thinks he’s smart – there’s no place on Wall Street for successful complacency. You lost money? Yo

The dollar is on fire and it has been for months now which means it's going to start impacting economies, earnings and expectations around the globe. The impact of of the dollar's big moves could be a short-term phenomenon, but if the move continues with this kind of momentum and magnitude, it will start to have mid- and longer-term economic ramifications (most of which are good for Main Street, but not so good for global conglomerates or Wall Street per se).

An old mentor of mine, now Chief Market Strategist at Rosenblatt Securities, Brian Reynolds, taught me long ago that when it comes to currencies and rates that it's not necessarily the direction of the move that counts, but the quickness and the magnitude of the move that matters. Another old mentor of mine, Jim Rogers, writes in his book and used to explain to me on TV that currency trends usually last much longer and go much further than most other markets' trends.

Plenty of economists/analysts (me included) have been more focused on the possibility of the dollar losing its long-term "reserve currency" LINK designation around the world. Russia definitely wants a new currency, but China's own currency wishes are more muddled as they own so many Treasuries and other dollar-denominated assets that appreciate with the dollar. Not to mention a stronger dollar helps them export to the US cheaper/more profitably. The lucky/better professional currency traders have actually caught most of this dollar move higher as the breakout at about the 82 level forced them to cover and/or go long the dollar. But just about every doomsday permabear who might try to trade currencies has been short the dollar and still is.

The primary driver of this extended recent dollar rally has simply been that the US Dollar is the least dirty shirt in a laundry basket full of stinky clothes. The Euro and the EU economies are struggling to maintain growth. Japan's markets and economy is suffering from inefficient corporate earnings policies both from the government and within the local corporations there.

You can try to game it a few ways. In general, the stronger dollar trend should be a headwind for many of the megacaps which have large foreign exposure. Dollar strength probably won't hit this quarter in a big way, but it will impact in the guidance and consensus earnings estimates for 2015 for export-heavy companies. Likely beneficiaries of a stronger dollar include retailers, tech, consumers and savers. Boeing is another name that comes to mind that might get hurt from a strong dollar. Boeing BA has the tailwind of war but the competition from Airbus plus the strength of the dollar vs the Euro that Airbus uses has got to hurt the company's near-term prospects. Is it enough to get a warning from the company in the next few months, I'm less than certain.

I would look at any funds or stocks I have that are heavily-dependent upon exporting sales and consider selling them. I happen to think that most of our individual Revolution Investing stocks that we own are poised to continue to bubble higher regardless of the dollar's rally impact on the economy.

Since back in 2009, I’ve long been predicting a bigger and badder stock market bubble than ever before. And we’re now in it. But that doesn’t mean it’s all about to come crashing down.

Corporate profits, corporate profit margins continue to shock most economists (not me though). The Fed is still in “emergency measures” mode with 0% interest rates and QE and other stealthier forms of helping banks and corporations minimize financial costs (as I’ve outlined for years). The Republican/Democrat regime at the federal, state, county and local levels still kowtow to corporations with ever more excessive subsidies and protection. Every saver and/or retiree is still desperate to find some sort of yield and decent gains on their money.

When will it end? The seemingly insanely huge advances in productivity our economy has gained from apps, smartphones, tablets, PCs, Internet, etc., is what has enabled the Fed to play these games much longer and has likewise enabled the Federal government’s debt/low-rates addiction to grow much larger than they would have been able to in other times. And so it continues for foreseeable future. Is it an endless bubble-blowing cycle after another?

But to be sure, the U.S. isn’t destined to have a hard landing if/when all rates go up on all that debt upon which interest has to be paid. Indeed, this version of a 1%-3% slow-growth GDP economy is a self-fulfilling dynamic whereupon destructive policies always suck out anything above that, but never more than would cause it all to crash down. And it that could be here for years to come, no?

In an article called ”Why you must fight the Fed and get ready for a new stock market bubble,” and in this interview with WSJ’s Simon Constable, both from 2010, I wrote the following to explain why we were likely headed into a stock market bubble — and it looks like we’re headed into an even bigger one today:

“Both the fundamentals and the macroeconomic (i.e., Fed’s relentless liquidity/money pumping) forces seem to point to much higher prices… We’re done lowering rates and easing. But I do think the most likely scenario is, indeed, for a booming or even a bubble in the stock market again.”

Sectors that I expect to bubble next includes wearables, robotics and drones and stocks like Ambarella, Apple and Sony. Be careful though and start slowly. What do you think? Tell me in the comments below or come join the discussion on Scutify.

Here’s (at least part of) what every serious investor and trader needs to know this weekend.

Bill Gross Leaving Pimco for Janus: Bill Gross leaving Pimco is pretty big news in the Wall Street world. First thought is why doesn’t Bill just retire? He’s 70 years old and worth, literally, billions. Isn’t there more to life? Second, I’m sure nobody will ever discuss it really, but I wonder if the investigation into his bond-fund pricing mechanisms by the SEC made this decision easier for him.

Bill Gross exit weighs on Treasury market: You’ve got to be kidding me that traders and investors in bonds actually base their buy and sell decisions on where Bill Gross is hanging his hat? That’s not a sustainable way to make money in the markets.

Starboard is pushing Yahoo to join forces with AOL: I want to short Yahoo (YHOO), as I can hardly believe their lack of revenue growth during the last five years as mobile-ad growth has exploded and online ads have grown steadily. Maybe another few days of rally like this, and I might finally step in by buying some longer-dated Yahoo puts

Derek Jeter’s unbelievable closing act at Yankee Stadium and Understatement of the year: ”OK. Thursday I posted I was taking the afternoon off to watch Derek Jeter’s last home game and that it better be worth it. Was that the understatement of the year? Thank you, #Derek, for the last 20 years. Couldn’t write a better ending. OK. Back to work now for the rest of us.” Talk about a winning trade. Watching Jeter instead of a collapsing market.

Buoyant Dollar Recovers Its Luster, Underlining Rebound in U.S. Economy: Anybody else ever wonder if the seemingly insanely huge advances in productivity our economy has gained from apps, smartphones, tablets, PCs, Internet, etc., is what has enabled the Fed to play these games much longer and has likewise enabled the Federal government’s debt/low-rates addiction to grow much larger than they would have been able to in other times?

China’s ‘Hard Landing’ Approaches: Which leads to the next question – Does the U.S. have to have a hard landing if/when all rates go up on all that debt upon which interest has to be paid? Could this version of a 1%-3% slow-growth GDP economy be a self-fulfilling dynamic whereupon destructive policies will always suck out anything above that, but never more than that?

Q. There is a company called Search Initiatives that is looking for investors. It is supposedly going public sometime in the next year or so. Have you heard of it and if so, do you have any opinion on it? Thanks. "We have a firm commitment underwriting from Maxim Securities to raise at least $50 million. The IPO will not only provide our investors with liquidity but will provide Search Initiatives with the funds necessary to maintain our leadership in the U.S..."

A. I've never heard of Search Initiatives, but a quick Google Search of "Search Initiatives IPO" reveals more than enough to make me run in the other direction. https://www.google.com/search?q=search+initiatives+ipo http://www.ripoffreport.com/r/Search-Initiatives-Elocal-Listing/nationwide/Search-Initiatives-Elocal-Listing-Investment-Scam-Temecula-California-338359 Scam Pre-IPO's – Company shares are offered directly to unsuspecting investors based on the premise that the company will be going public in the very near future. This exploitation plays on an investor's eagerness to partake in what could be a lucrative Initial Public Offering but, these companies either do not exist or are marginally successful and are not financially ready to "go public". And why doesn't anything about the supposed IPO with Maxim Securities leading the way come up if you Google https://www.google.com/search?q=search+initiatives+ipo+maxim

Q. Any interest in $BABA sub 90?

A. I think $BABA will go up. I don't want to risk my own hard-earned money on $BABA, a Chinese-based company based in Cayman Islands with a very convoluted share structure. Read this: "It is not clear after looking over the structure just what the hell the holder of the stk actually owns if anything, except for a piece of a shell corp in the Cayman Islands. It is like a modern derivative, a betting vehicle, more a state of mind that a productive piece of anything when push comes to shove. http://bit.ly/1DoO1Qf"

Q. Are you expecting a big correction in Nasdaq??

A. No, I've been writing for the last week or so that, including in my report this morning that: "The path of least resistance for the broader stock markets remains sideways with a slight upward bias."

Q. $AMBA: What are your expectations for $AMBA? I feel like I have missed the move up. Thanks.

A. $AMBA'S been on fire but not as much as its higher-profile customer $GPRO. Looking out five years from now, I think you'll see teens wearing AMBA-based cams everywhere they go. I could see a HD-cam sales hitting 3-4 billion per year. Mobile phone unit sales are climbing towards 2 billion already and most all of those will have cameras in them, so a 3-4 billion unit per year market for HD cams and the chips that run them isn't that far off.

Q. Hi Cody, Can you add color on $SNE? Aside from their library of titles, what attracts you to them? Also, do you think their recently announced TV box is a good move considering there are established competing products? Are you planning to add to lower your cost basis here?

A. I've added near $18-19 on $SNE and am just letting that ride for now. I'd probably add if it got down closer to $16 and would definitely buy another tranche of SNE if it got down $15 or so. As for the reasons why-- remember $HPQ at $15 when it'd been crushed for messing up its businesses and overpaying for bad acquisitions and stuff? I think $SNE is similarly crushed for messing up its businesses right now and if they get the ship righted at all, the stock would double. If Sony wearables or TVs ever take off, the stock would triple or quadruple. And if everything on the planet goes right for Sony in the next few years, the stock could be a 5-10 bagger by this time next decade. Of course, if it doesn't right itself, the stock will be dead money and/or lower than its current $17ish quote.

Q. Cody, what would be a good entry point for $AAPL?

A. Glad you asked. I thought I'd included this paragraph in this morning's report too, but it seems it got cut off

So, here are the seven must-have apps for traders and investors:

1. Scutify (Free) - By far the most value-add and outright best app for every investor and trader.

2. ChartIQ (Free) - Best stock charting app and the free version is packed, but it'll cost you for real-time data.

3. FRED (Free) - Best economic app, bar none.

4. KCast Gold Live! (Free) - An impressive amount of relevant information on commodities like precious metals.

5. WolframAlpha ($2.99) - Amazing amount of information about stocks and another other topic you can think of to research.

6. Stock Guru Pro ($19.99) - Don't mistake the snapshot of each stock's fundamentals here for actual "fundamental analysis", but newbie investors especially might learn a lot using this app to research their stocks.

7. Marketwatch (Free) – Needs to be updated but still offers great content.

You have to be aware of these speculative bubbled frenzies and paid-promotion scams even if you're just an average Joe investor. I personally have received dozens of thank you's from readers who listened to my advice to stay away from these lousy investments and themselves saved millions of dollars in unnecessary losses. Remember my simple rule: don't ever buy a penny stock.

Here's an audacious real-life, real-time example of how this penny stock promotion game works. Indeed, this is the most brazen stock promotion game I've ever seen, and I've seen them all.

This company gets paid $17,500 dollars by BreedIT, a lousy penny stock trading at 19 cents per share, to write an article touting the BreedIT stock which they then pay to get sent out over the newswire services and which then even gets picked up on Marketwatch's Newswire feeds.

This in particular article is all the more outrageous as it quotes yours truly and cites Marketwatch to try to gain some semblance of credibility: "As noted by Marketwatch contributor and major Scutify shareholder Cody Willard, Aegion items like 'water and wastewater, Brinderson, corrosion engineering and cathodic protection' will be in direct demand. It's notable that Willard is adamant about only investing in blue chip plays. Monsanto and billionaire investor George Soros have gotten their hands dirty and pushed to get into the marijuana business."

Ironically, the article they're citing that I wrote for Marketwatch is all about avoiding penny stocks like BreedIT. Here's a better, more apropos quote from me in that same article where I mentioned Aegion as a great long-term marijuana play: "I’ll give you one more public service announcement that penny stocks up 1,000% on hype will take you to the poorhouse. Do you think I’m wrong that these penny pot stocks like $PHOT, $CBIS, $HEMP and $MJNA are going to leave retail investors with big losses when it’s all said and done? Comment below or come join the discussion on this stuff over on my Scutify page."

You can click on any of those symbols and you'll see my track record and historical analysis for each one. In fact, every single one of those four pot penny stocks I mentioned in that article are down 60%-90% since I wrote that. Just in the last couple days, I've added 150% to my performance on Scutify Sentiment rankings as two pot penny stocks and one other penny stock Bearish Sentiment Views expired.

Meanwhile, Aegion is up about 10% since I wrote that article. But back to BreedIT -- BreedIT has generated some $6,000 in revenues each of the last two years (you read that right, six thousand dollars in sales in 2012 and 2013) and would need to grow that number 30,000% to get to sales to 1x market cap. And the kicker is that up until the recently popped marijuana penny stock bubble got started, this BreedIT company which currently says it's in the business of "develops, licenses, and markets agro-breeding solutions for plant breeders and researchers" was actually called ProGaming and touted itself as "an online gaming platform for multiplayer skill game competitions on the internet."

So let me be clear since this company and it's hypester shills have tried to associate my name with it -- I predict that BRDT will be right back down to its 52-week low of 3 cents per share and that it's headed much lower than that over the next few years. I don't think it has any product for "agro-breeding solutions for plant breeders" that will ever sell enough to make this company worth $1 million, much less the current $17 million market cap it has.

After I mention how much money I have saved warning retail investors about pot penny stocks, the attacks commence immediately. Insiders and hypesters are sensitive about people calling out their scams. My favorite attack from the hypsters recently is the guy on Twitter who calls me an idiot for having nailed an 80% crash in ERBB. Now the hypesters are deleting their tweets to me cuz I made them lo

1. 0% interest rates. After the great Y2K stock market bubble popped in 2001-2005 or so, analysts used to filet former Federal Reserve Chairman, Alan Greenspan, for having caused that bubble with his dovish approach to interest rates. He kept rates artificially under historically normal levels, eventually taking them all the way to an unprecedented 1% level as the calendar flipped to the new millennium. For the last five years, every developed nation on the planet has been keeping rates near 1% or even lower. And with interest rates simply being the reflection of the cost of borrowing money for huge corporations, and with the cost of borrowing money for huge corporations being artificially manipulated below their fair value, there’s been trillions of dollars borrowed to finance share buybacks, dividends, and other financial engineering mechanisms.

2. QE. From wikipedia: “A central bank implements quantitative easing by buying specified amounts of financial assets from commercial banks and other private institutions, thus raising the prices of those financial assets and lowering their yield, while simultaneously increasing the monetary base.” Think about what QE truly means then for a moment. QE sends a set amount of money to giant Too Big To Fail banks each month in exchange for some sort of “financial asset” that might or might not be worth whatever the taxpayer is paying for it. Can you imagine running a business knowing that each and every month you will be able to unload your worst inventory for above market prices?

3. Stimulus. Back in 2008, Bush and the Republican side of the Republican Democrat Regime, created an economic stimulus package that included sending a check of a couple hundred bucks each to people not in the top 5% of income earners. In 2009, the Republicans went back to pretending that they are anti-stimulus as Obama and Democrat side of the Republican Democrat Regime created an economic stimulus package of their own. 99% of the stimulus bills that are passed are simply tools for giant corporations to profiteer on taxpayer largesse.

4. Tax policies. We have a 100,000 page tax code full of obsequious and convoluted laws that are not uniformly applied. Every new subsidy, tax break, and/or law that’s proposed and passed in any of the state’s or nation’s capitals around the developed world is done so because some corporation will directly benefit with larger profits. I recently had a Democrat state lobbyist in NM tell me that “unless the potential client has tens of millions of dollars at their disposal,” he wouldn’t be interested in lobbying for them. He considers himself liberal, by the way. Nobody’s lobbying for the benefit of public good these days, so don’t ever believe their hype.

5. New laws. With each new giant governmental spending program that has come out in the last five years, including the aforementioned bond manipulation programs, the Dodd Frank banking system, and Obamacare, we’re spending more taxpayer money that could have and would have gone into something more efficient and productive for our economy and society. These laws were written by corporate attorneys, accountants and lobbyists and they are licenses to steal taxpayer money. If we really wanted to provide universal health care to our nation’s people, we’d pay the health care providers directly. Why does a health insurance company exist at all if the government’s the one writing the check anyway? To profiteer on taxpayer largesse, that’s why.

These manipulations don’t happen in a vacuum of course. Every dollar that is lent out at below the natural rate is another dollar that won’t go to where the market place would have found reasonable risk/return. That’s why these artificial manipulations creating all this long-term malinvestment is so destructive to our economy and society over the long-term. And more to the vacuum point for the the near- and mid-term time frame, we are in a global currency / corporate economic world war. Every

The fog of war is thick now, which makes the markets less certain, which over time can contract multiples and bring down valuations. I’ve talked before about how we are in a currency war and how the “fog of war” is building, making this and other geopolitical conflicts potential Black Swan events. And you can bet that there will be continued escalation and U.S. involvement in Ukraine. Did you forget this all-important factoid about Ukraine/U.S. ties and the conflicts of interest therein?

Biden’s Son Joins Board of Gas Company Linked to Ousted Ukrainian President — The facts: Ukraine Energy Co. has lots of “legal rights” to lots of energy fields in Ukraine. If Russia takes over Ukraine, those “legal rights” will be gone forever. Best way to save your company? Weeks after Joe Biden visits, you appoint his son to your Ukraine Oil Co., and now the U.S. will say its got U.S. interests in Ukraine. Much more “aid” from U.S. taxpayers to support the Biden kid’s company and the regime now in power in Ukraine and perhaps a full blown war in Ukraine is the most likely outcome with this development.

It’s crucial to be aware of as many interests at play as possible. At any rate, I’m not making any major changes to my portfolio as a result of this analysis. But Ukraine/Russia/U.S. tensions remain a volatile piece of our puzzle as well as being something to pray about.

In 2009, I started writing columns about what I was calling the App Revolution. I made predictions about the potential size, scope and growth of apps, smartphones and tablets, and how they would change our lives forever.

Most of my predictions like “the ultimate size of a market that will entail billions of people using trillions of apps” from back then seemed outrageous at the time.

Now they seem prescient:

When you find the single largest target market in the history of the planet, it’s time to get excited — perhaps even consumed — by apps. I’ve certainly been obsessed with all things apps since I started looking at the growth ahead and the ultimate size of a market that will entail billions of people using trillions of apps. Seriously, those are real numbers, and as I wrote in “ Invest in the app revolution any way you can ,” I’m not only obsessed with finding the best publicly traded plays on the app revolution, but I’m even launching app companies like Scutify .

I explained to people that apps were going to become the “largest target market in the history of the planet.” Even though we all use apps and even though the App Revolution did indeed change everything and become the largest target market in the history of the world, I’ve just come to the realization that the App Revolution is actually just getting started. The Wearables Revolution, which only works because we’ve become such an app-centric economy, is going to make an even bigger impact than the Smartphone and Tablet Revolutions did with apps.

That is, wearables are to the smartphone and tablet what the smartphone and tablet were to PCs. Wearable technology that keeps people and companies connected to the Internet through simple-to-use apps is the single most evolutionarily revolutionary technology to hit since the smartphone was first rolled out.

I’ve been testing out Google Glass for the last few weeks, and I have seen the future. The future is one where you will talk and/or tap on your Smartglasses and Smartwatches and Smartrings and other smart jewelry (i.e., wearables) to interact with the data, information and personal content with more ease than ever before.

The reason apps for wearables is so important is because of the very simple interfaces required by the wearable-form factor. When you want to control and manipulate your data, information and content deeply, you’ll go to your PC. In the same way that it’s much easier to sign up for and type and view on your Facebook profile page or your Google Analytics on your PC than it is on your smartphone, the same is true for wearables. Wearables won’t “replace” your smartphone entirely in the same way that your smartphone didn’t “replace” your PC entirely.

You can still record a video with a camera accessory to your desktop computer and upload it to YouTube or Facebook. For another decade at least, you’ll always have the option of pulling out your smartphone or tablet to record a video and upload it to YouTube or Facebook. But do you have any idea how much easier it is to simply tap your Google Glass and say “OK, glass, record a video,” and then to say “OK, glass, share this with YouTube (or Facebook)”? It is so much easier.

With holographic projectors and wearable eyepieces and other display-form factors coming out as the wearable technology polishes itself up for primetime, the possibilities and potential for wearable technology is unrivaled.