My preferred method of forecasting transformative AI, with pros and cons.

https://www.cold-takes.com/forecasting-transformative-ai-the-biological-anchors-method-in-a-nutshell/

AI progress may not trend in the ways we intuitively expect.

https://www.cold-takes.com/are-we-trending-toward-transformative-ai-how-would-we-know/

This is the second of 4 posts summarizing hundreds of pages of technical reports focused almost entirely on forecasting one number: the year by which transformative AI will be developed.

https://www.cold-takes.com/forecasting-transformative-ai-whats-the-burden-of-proof/

PASTA: Process for Automating Scientific and Technological Advancement

https://www.cold-takes.com/transformative-ai-timelines-part-1-of-4-what-kind-of-ai/

https://www.cold-takes.com/this-cant-go-on/

The long view of economic history says we're in the midst of a huge, unsustainable acceleration. What happens next?

Final section of the "Digital People Would Be An Even Bigger Deal" readthrough.

https://www.cold-takes.com/how-digital-people-could-change-the-world/

FAQ about the "digital people" idea.

https://www.cold-takes.com/digital-people-faq

Audio for the first part of "Digital People Would Be An Even Bigger Deal."

https://www.cold-takes.com/how-digital-people-could-change-the-world/

If people could be insta-copied, economic growth would explode.

https://www.cold-takes.com/the-duplicator/

If you think humans will eventually spread out across the galaxy (even if it takes 100,000 years), then you think we are among the earliest living beings, with remarkable opportunities to shape the future.

https://www.cold-takes.com/all-possible-views-about-humanitys-future-are-wild/