Collective Shift

Matt, Nick, and Leon discuss whether the Bitcoin ETF launches were successful. They also share updates on Ethereum’s upcoming catalysts as well as various altcoins.

Key Takeaways 

• The recently launched Bitcoin ETFs already have nearly $30B in assets under management, surpassing the $11B held in silver ETFs.
• As expected, the SEC delayed a decision on Fidelity’s spot Ethereum ETF application. The dates to watch are May 23 and May 24 because the SEC must approve or deny two active applications.
• Testing of Ethereum’s upcoming ‘Dencun’ upgrade continued with some minor hiccups. While there is no official mainnet launch date yet, many expect Dencun in late March or early April.
• Jupiter confirmed its JUP token will launch on January 31. In a year that will feature many airdrops, JUP is one of the most highly anticipated.

Join Matt, Nick, and Leon as they dissect last week’s Bitcoin ETF approval, one of the most important milestones in Bitcoin’s 15-year existence. They also discuss a potential Ethereum ETF, upcoming airdrops, and more.

Key Takeaways 

• The U.S. securities regulator approved a spot bitcoin ETF, ending a decade of rejected applications.
• All ETFs started trading on Thursday. Too early to confidently assess investor demand. Expect anticipation to continue growing over a potential spot Ethereum ETF.
• BlackRock’s CEO spoke positively about asset tokenisation and a spot Ethereum ETF.
• Upcoming airdrops for Jupiter (JUP) and Dymension (DYM). Claim window for DYM ends on January 21.

Join Leon and Nick as we take a step back and review the year that was, diving into the lessons, surprises, wins and losses in what proved to be another action-packed year.

Key Takeaways 

• The SEC sets the last date for amendments to ETFs, with industry experts estimating a 90% approval rating.
• A significant year for crypto; SBF jailed, Bitcoin ETFs, BlackRock enters, Solana’s shifted narrative and Ethereum’s protocol upgrades. 
• What surprised us; Bitcoin inscriptions, Coinbase with L2 Base, major sentiment changes and fierce competition for volume between CEXs & DEXes.
• What we got right; L2 tokenisation & adoption, Solana and appropriate portfolio management.
• What we got wrong; DeFi & stablecoins and artificial intelligence underwhelming Leon. 
• What we learnt; Crypto development still takes a long time, banks continue to enter crypto & not using rational thought to analyse an irrational market. The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.

The team discusses the latest Ledger security issue and whether they still trust the company’s hardware wallets. They also break down the U.S. central bank’s new outlook to cut rates multiple times in 2024—which should help cryptocurrency prices—and other key events from the past week.

Key Takeaways 

• Cryptocurrencies and other risk-on assets jumped on the news that the U.S. central bank expects to cut rates three times in 2024, more than previously expected.
• Ledger suffered a security breach impacting users of various dapps. The issue was fixed within an hour, with some users losing funds. Ledger’s internal security practices continue to attract criticism. Ultimately, the hardware wallet itself was unaffected by this news.
• Bitcoin ETFs continue to dominate the crypto news and market’s attention. We still expect the SEC to approve most or all spot ETF applications by January 10.
• Senator Elizabeth Warren’s anti-crypto bill continues to threaten the U.S. crypto industry. Monitoring this bill’s progress will be important for investors in 2024.

The team discusses why Bitcoin surpassed and is staying above 40k. They also discuss banks and their continued experimentation with crypto while Airdrop season on Solana is starting to heat up.

Key Takeaways 

• BTC surged above $44,000, its highest level in nearly 20 months.
• Catalysts include: Upcoming ETF denial or approval, diminishing supply on exchanges and a general consensus of BTC being accepted as a separate asset class.
• More major banks (Societe Generale and Nubank) announced further pushes into crypto, while the CEO of JPMorgan expressed his negative view of crypto once again.
• Airdrop season is kicking off, particularly in the Solana ecosystem after last week saw Jito (JTO) become one of the largest airdrops to date.

The team discusses Bitcoin reaching $40,000 while Michael Saylor adds more Bitcoin to his balance sheet. The team further delves into the Solana ecosystem with highly anticipated airdrops from Jupiter & Jito.

Key Takeaways 

• Bitcoin climbed to a 20-month high of $40,100 after confidence increased in a bitcoin ETF approval by Jan. 10, 2024.
• The cause of this increased confidence was the SEC submitting certain filings last week that effectively enables it to make a decision on all ETF applicants at once in early January.
• Michael Saylor’s MicroStrategy bought an additional 16,130 BTC for $593M in November, bringing its holdings to 174,540 BTC. It may soon raise $750M to buy more BTC.
• Airdrop season is heating up in the Solana ecosystem. Last week, Jito announced its JTO token and Jupiter shared its website for checking eligibility for its upcoming JUP airdrop.

The team discusses Binance's $4.3 billion settlement and criminal charges, alongside Kraken's SEC lawsuit over unregistered securities. They also cover the Australian Tax Office's controversial crypto tax guidance and Blur's new Blast chain launch. 

Key Takeaways 

• Binance settled with the U.S. Department of Justice and other federal authorities for $4.3 billion and pleaded guilty to various criminal charges.
• The SEC sued Kraken for failing to register its exchange. It also alleged 16 cryptocurrencies as being unregistered securities.
• The Australian Tax Office updated its non-binding guidance on the tax treatment of cryptocurrencies. This received backlash from several established industry participants.
• The team behind Blur announced Blast, a layer-two chain set to launch in February. This was one of the most significant project announcements of 2023 and will likely have various flow-on effects for certain altcoins.

The team discusses BlackRock and the recent ETF filing for spot Ethereum. They also discuss Disney, OKX's new Layer 2 and Tether wanting to mine Bitcoin.

Key Takeaways 

• Asset management giant BlackRock filed for a spot Ethereum ETF. Don’t expect any spot ETFs for other cryptocurrencies any time soon. 
• Big banks JPMorgan and Apollo pleased with results of a proof-of-concept that used Avalanche, LayerZero, Axelar, and others.
• Disney licensed its IP to Dapper Labs, the team behind the Flow blockchain, to launch Disney Pinnacle platform.
• Major exchange OKX will soon launch X1, a layer-two blockchain built with Polygon CDK. Scheduled to launch in Q1 2024.
• Tether is reportedly expanding into Bitcoin mining. Targeting South America.
• Argentina officially has a new president, Javier Milei, and he is Bitcoin-friendly!

The team covered the crypto market in the last week, citing an incredible 40% increase in Solana, Blackrock preparing for a Spot Eth ETF and news of 2 new Layer 2 networks.

Key Takeaways 

1. The crypto market has continued rallying, with SOL (+40%) a notable outperformer.
2. It appears that this price growth is being driven by existing investors and increased leverage. While various popular retail metrics are starting to increase, the rate of change is nothing too notable.
3. BlackRock is seemingly preparing to apply for a spot Ethereum ETF in the U.S. If the SEC approves a spot bitcoin ETF, expect speculation over an Ethereum version to grow considerably.
4. Kraken and OKX are rumoured to be building their own layer-two networks. If true, the move would come months after Coinbase launched its own L2 chain (i.e. Base).
5. The team loved every second of Aus Crypto Con over the weekend! It was a pleasure to catch up with so many Collective.

The team discusses the largest crypto trial with SBF being found guilty on 7 counts. They also examine Solana’s Breakpoint conference and Paypal being subpoenaed by the SEC.

Key Takeaways 

• Sam Bankman-Fried found guilty on all 7 counts in FTX fraud trial. Sentencing is scheduled for March 28.
• Hong Kong’s securities regulator is moving towards allowing retail investors to buy spot crypto ETFs, according to Bloomberg. Positive news, if true!
• Get our highlights from Solana’s biggest annual conference, during which the SOL token rallied strongly.
• Join us at the Australian Crypto Convention. Click here for a free ticket.