2025 Big Ten predictions, Oregon Football, Illinois Football, and the lessons that can help us make better 2026 Big Ten predictions are all discussed in this breakdown of what I believe was the worst college football take of 2025.
In this video, I revisit a CBS Sports 2025 Big Ten Power Rankings segment from last summer, focusing on one prediction that stood out immediately: ranking Illinois ahead of Oregon.
I break down exactly why that prediction failed, where the evaluation process went wrong, and what it teaches us about projecting college football teams. Along the way, I explain how to identify the traits of a true breakout program and why programs like Indiana Football under Curt Cignetti can, rarely, rise into the sport's upper tier while others fall short.
Whether you're making Big Ten predictions, evaluating preseason rankings, or projecting College Football Playoff contenders, this video explores the principles that separate great predictions from bad ones.
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0:00 Why I'm Making This Video
2:00 Brief Review of CBS Sports' 2025 Big Ten Power Rankings
5:30 The Myth of "Close games are good actually"
11:00 Illinois Was Not A "Physical" Team In 2024 & 2025
13:00 This Same Logic Is Underrating Washington Football This Year
14:15 My Atrocious Takes
16:15 Returning Key Units / Production Does Not Guarantee Success
19:00 Insane Take: Oregon Is "Volatile"
21:25 Why Oregon Was NEVER Going To GO 8-4
25:15 Only Use Returning Production In Combination With More Important Data
27:10 Running Backs (With Rare Exception) Do Not Matter A Lot
29:15 Why Illinois Could NEVER Overcome Oregon's Advantages
32:30 McFadden THANKFULLY Makes Good Points
34:50 Why Dan Lanning Getting Blown Out By Ohio State & Indiana Does Not Matter Much
40:53 Giving Flowers To McFadden
41:23 Oregon's 2024 Season Was An ELITE Coaching Job
45:23 No Preseason Research Said Illinois Would Be Favored Over Oregon
47:53 Why Illinois Ahead of Oregon Is BAD
49:53 Bringing Back A Mediocre Team Does NOT Make Them A Contender
#collegefootball #oregonfootball #illinoisfootball #indianafootball #ohiostatefootball #bigtenfootball #collegefootballwithsam