Commercial Real Estate Investment Conference Podcast (CREIC)

Vacancy is stabilizing. That sounds good. But rent growth is still getting crushed. We're talking 0.5 percent monthly, one to two percent annually. That's the weakest spring gains since 2014.

Here's the real story: it's bifurcated. Forty-one of the fifty major markets are showing year-over-year rent improvement. But the Sun Belt is getting absolutely crushed. Austin, Phoenix, Denver, Atlanta seeing 15-21% rent cuts. Record vacancies. The post-pandemic construction boom is still delivering into softening demand. Austin alone went from massive permitting in 2024 to basically nothing in 2025. Ninety-seven percent collapse in permits. But developers are already planning 2026 starts for 2027 and 2028 delivery. They're betting that when supply dries up, they'll be positioned. Supply is finally peaking. Deliveries expected to drop to around 450,000 units in 2026, down from 595,000 in 2025. That's a massive shift. But demand is still there. 637,000 units were absorbed in 2025. That's the seventh best year ever. Coastal markets and low-supply markets are seeing rent growth. Sun Belt oversupply is still a problem. Single-family rents are rising while multifamily is flattening. Record rent gap between the two. The pattern is clear: Vacancy stabilizing. Supply peaking. But rent growth is bifurcated. Winners and losers are being determined right now. The operators who understand this moment, who can read the data and know where to actually deploy capital, they're the ones winning.

Episode Sponsor: Rise 48 Equity
Rise 48 helps you protect and grow your wealth by investing in large multifamily apartment buildings. Vertically integrated property management. Vertically integrated construction. They do all the work.
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Alright, so here's what's happening in the apartment market right now, and it's actually good news for once.

Q1 apartment deliveries just hit a four-year low. We're talking about the fewest new units hitting the market in years. All those markets that got absolutely hammered with supply over the last couple years are finally getting a breather. The oversupply problem is starting to solve itself. Not because demand exploded. Because builders finally stopped swinging the hammer. Meanwhile, Blackstone just crossed 1.3 trillion in assets under management. You know what carried that entire quarter? Data centers and energy. Not traditional real estate. Not office. Data centers. That's the capital flow right now. That's where the smart money is moving. But here's where it gets interesting. The Sun Belt isn't overbuilt. It's uneven. You look at metro-wide rent data and it looks fine. But zoom in? Sharp divide. Some neighborhoods are crushing it. Others are struggling. The investors who are reading the headline numbers and thinking everything's fine are missing the actual play. And in New York, something wild is happening. Nearly a quarter of all Manhattan office relocations over the past three years landed in one submarket. Penn Station area. And here's the kicker. Most of those companies didn't downsize. They upsized. They moved to bigger footprints. Companies aren't shrinking. They're relocating to places where they can actually operate. Where the infrastructure makes sense. So the pattern is clear. Apartment supply is tightening. Capital is flowing to data centers. Office is consolidating in the right locations. The winners are the ones who understand where the actual demand is.

Episode Sponsor: Rise 48 Equity
Rise 48 helps you protect and grow your wealth by investing in large multifamily apartment buildings. Vertically integrated property management. Vertically integrated construction. They do all the work.
rise48.com 

Something fundamental is shifting in real estate right now, and most people are completely missing it.

Blackstone just hit 1.3 trillion in assets under management. Data centers carried the entire quarter. That's not a coincidence. That's a signal. The industry is being forced to rethink operations, strategy, and long-term survival. Technology adoption is accelerating. The Sun Belt isn't overbuilt. It's uneven. Metro-wide rent data is masking a sharp divide, and investors reading only the headline numbers are missing the actual play. Charlotte just climbed to number five in national CRE investment rankings. That's a city that wasn't even on the radar three years ago. Tampa Bay office vacancy just hit a four-year low. The office sector is stabilizing, but not everywhere. Not evenly. Land pipeline is shrinking. 24 percent drop in land listings nationwide. That's reshaping development economics. Headquarters are relocating. Intrametro moves. Cost efficiency. Hybrid work reshaping where companies actually want to be. So what's the pattern? Data centers are booming. Office is stabilizing in the right markets. Land is getting scarce. Capital is getting selective. The operators who understand this moment, who can read the data and move fast, they're going to dominate.

Episode Sponsor: Rise 48 Equity
Rise 48 helps you protect and grow your wealth by investing in large multifamily apartment buildings. Vertically integrated property management. Vertically integrated construction. They do all the work.
rise48.com 

Texas is not just growing. Texas is outpacing the entire country. Houston industrial construction rose 7.1 percent quarter over quarter. The national average is 2.2 percent. That's more than triple the pace. 21.8 million square feet under construction in Q1. 24 percent preleased. Manufacturing is leading the charge with 21 percent of all leases. Grainger just broke ground on a 1.3 million square foot distribution center in Hockley. 400 jobs. Dallas is a different animal right now. The Texas Stock Exchange is launching in July with 275 million in backing from Charles Schwab, BlackRock, JP Morgan. They're trying to rival the NYSE. Class A office in Uptown Dallas is tightening. Leasing activity is rising. Finance jobs are coming. DataBank just secured a 2 billion dollar construction loan for three new data centers near Dallas. 600,000 square feet. 180 megawatts. They accelerated the timeline by 18 months. These are fully leased before they're even built. Texas is becoming the data center capital of the country. Manufacturing is booming. Finance is moving in. Data centers are being built at scale. Capital is flowing. The operators who understand this moment, who are positioned in Texas right now, they're going to win big.

Episode Sponsor: Rise 48 Equity
Rise 48 helps you protect and grow your wealth by investing in large multifamily apartment buildings. Vertically integrated property management. Vertically integrated construction. They do all the work.
rise48.com 

There's a moment happening right now in the market that most people are completely missing.

Class A apartments are facing oversupply. Class C renters are getting squeezed. But Class B assets are quietly delivering the most stability. That's where the smart money is sitting. Florida is building more storage than any state in America. 55 million square feet of new storage coming online in 2026. The market is finally building like it actually learned something from the last boom. That's discipline. That's operators who understand cycles. Meanwhile, in New York, pension funds are pouring $4 billion into affordable housing. Development, preservation, office-to-residential conversions. That's institutional capital moving. The market is bifurcating. Class A is struggling. Class C is under pressure. Class B is winning. Storage is disciplined. Affordable housing is getting capital. The operators who understand this moment, who are positioned in the right assets, they're going to dominate.

Episode Sponsor: Rise 48 Equity — rise48.com

Adam breaks his silence on the AI tool he's been using religiously behind the scenes. This is his first public endorsement of Simtheory — the browser automation platform that actually delivers where others fall short.

In this special promotional episode, Adam explains why ChatGPT and Claude Native just don't cut it for serious operators who need to actually do things, not just talk about them. The speed difference is real. The privacy guarantees are contractual. And the multi-model flexibility means you're never locked into a single vendor.

Key points covered:

Want to get set up properly? Reach out to Adam directly for the inside track on getting started.

Big banks just posted their cleanest CRE numbers in years. Nonperforming loans fell at every major bank. Starwood REIT closed a $1.7 billion refinancing for their Sun Belt workforce portfolio. Big money is chasing affordable units in growth markets. The capital sources moving real money don't want their names blasted everywhere. They want privacy. They want to know who's in the room. That's why we're shifting to invite-only. Still 500 seats. Still free general admission. But you request your invitation now. The real players prefer privacy over everything else. The venue is invite-only. The attendee list is private. The conversations stay in that room.

Episode Sponsor: Rise 48 Equity — rise48.com

The White House just reported a shortage of 10 million housing units in America, nearly 3x what Freddie Mac estimated. The best rental markets right now? The Upper Midwest, not where people expect. Texas job growth is back but with serious caveats. This is the moment. We're shifting to invite-only. There's serious professional athlete capital coming to the building. NFL? Could be. NBA? Don't rule it out. The venue won't be blasted publicly. If you want to know where it is and what type of capital is coming, you need to request your invitation.

Episode Sponsor: Rise 48 Equity — rise48.com

Three markets just became the hardest places to rent in America: Chicago, Miami, and Wichita.

This episode breaks down what's happening in each market, where capital is flowing, and why operators are making aggressive moves right now without waiting for perfect conditions. Industry events that used to bring serious operators together are mostly gone. There's a vacuum. The people winning are those with strong networks who can move fast. That's why C.R.E.I.C. exists- to create the gathering point where operators, capital, and deal flow converge.

Episode Sponsor: Rise 48 Equity
Rise 48 helps you protect and grow your wealth by investing in large multifamily apartment buildings. Vertically integrated property management. Vertically integrated construction. They do all the work.
rise48.com

CREIC | Commercial Real Estate Investment Conference
Miami | November 6-7, 2026
500 seats. Free general admission. Spots are limited.
creicmiami.com

We spent the last week digging into what's actually happening in the market. Not the headlines. The real data. And what we found is wild. Distressed office sales just topped $5 billion in foreclosure and bankruptcy-related trades in 2025 alone. 2026 is already outpacing that. Over 200 distressed office properties changed hands. Buildings that were worth nine figures five years ago are now trading at fractions of those prices. Downtown Chicago towers under $30 per square foot.

Denver and D.C. assets at prices that would have been unthinkable a decade ago. New York is converting its way through the problem. David Werner is picking up older Manhattan office buildings at steep discounts, his latest Hell's Kitchen deal closing at roughly a third of its 2018 price. One Whitehall Street just went into contract for just over $100 million for a rental conversion. 55 Broad Street saw a $500 million recapitalization with institutional capital stepping in. But not everyone's playing the conversion game. Investors like Igal Namdar just dropped $280 million on 250 West 57th Street with no conversion thesis. Just a bet that today's pricing leaves enough room for upside regardless of use. Two different playbooks. Same market moment.

Chicago and L.A. are the deepest in the hole. South Florida is sitting it out, waiting for better visibility on rates. The market is in a moment of transition. Price discovery is happening. Deals that were frozen for years are finally moving. And if you've been in commercial real estate and capital raising for any amount of time, you know there used to be pivotal events. Industry gatherings where relationships compounded and deals got done. A lot of those events are gone now. Sunsetted. Minimized. There's a vacuum. That's exactly why this matters right now. This is the new anchor event for people who no longer have one. And the people who move first on sponsorships and VIP tickets? They're going to be the ones positioned to capitalize on what's happening.

Episode Sponsor: Rise 48 Equity — rise48.com