Commodity Research Group

Commodity Research Group (CRG) is an independent research consultancy specializing in base and precious metals, as well energy products. The Group provides research and general price analysis for these markets, along with advice to companies seeking to construct hedging strategies.

In this podcast, oil market experts Andrew Lebow and Jim Colburn discuss key fundamental forces driving oil prices in both the futures and options markets.

[01:20] Hurricane Harvey – Impact on EIA inventory numbers

[04:30] Refinery turnarounds possibly delayed from October to spring

[05:00] Mexico refining picture – effect on global supply

[07:00] Strength in Brent

[09:00] IEA ups demand forecast

[14:20] US product demand – Gasoline cracks

[15:40] OPEC ups call

[21:30] Balanced market remains rangebound

[24:50] Options: RBOB vol peaks

[27:00] Crude options – Dec $60 call – getting there?

[30:00] $45-52 range in tact

[32:20] What to look forward to

Andrew Lebow has been involved in the energy derivative area since 1980. He began his career with Shearson Lehman Brothers where he worked in the initial formulation and marketing of the NYMEX WTI crude contract in 1983 as well as the NYMEX gasoline contract in 1985.

Mr. Lebow has appeared before the State Government of Alaska as well as the State Department of Defense to discuss hedging techniques.  Mr. Lebow is also well known as a market analyst and is quoted frequently in the financial press. He has appeared on television on CNBC, NBC, CNN, CBS, and PBS. Mr. Lebow holds a BA from Lafayette College and an MBA from the Kellogg School of Management at Northwestern University.

Jim Colburn is a futures and options professional with 30 years of wide ranging experience in commodity markets. For much of his career, at Man Financial (1989-2011) and Jefferies LLC (2012-2013), Mr. Colburn worked with major integrated oil companies, hedge funds, pension funds and other entities to develop market hedging and trading strategies.

He has conducted trading, hedging and risk management workshops in energy markets worldwide.

Mr. Colburn is a published author on options trading, hedging, market making and risk management. In 1986, while at the New York Mercantile Exchange, Mr. Colburn helped develop new markets in energy option contracts by educating the oil industry, banks, floor traders and brokers, worldwide.

Commodity Research Group

Commodity Research Group Podcast

EIA.gov

OPEC.org

EKT Interactive Oil and Gas Podcast Network

Oil 101 A Free Online Introduction to the Oil and Gas Industry

The post September Oil Market Analysis – Commodity Research Group appeared first on EKT Interactive.

Commodity Research Group (CRG) is an independent research consultancy specializing in base and precious metals, as well energy products. The Group provides research and general price analysis for these markets, along with advice to companies seeking to construct hedging strategies.

In this podcast, market experts Edward Meir and Jim Colburn discuss key elements of the metals and currency markets.

[01:20] Copper – End of 5 year bear market – China effect

[05:30] Upcoming labor contracts in key copper producing areas

[07:50] Chilean economy and effect of recent copper bullish move

[08:50] World growth and the US dollar

[12:40] Dollar / Euro – Europe as the recent surprise story

[15:20] Gold – Technical failure bearish but too much political uncertainty

[19:00] Bitcoin – The new safe haven?

[21:05] Platinum and Palladium Overview

[24:35] Fed GDP and rate hike expectations – Effect on metals

[30:25] Wrap up – The decoupling of commodities

Edward Meir was named the most accurate price forecaster for base metals in 2011, 2014 and 2015 and finished second for 2013, as ranked by Metal Bulletin, a leading trade publication. Additionally, he obtained the #2 ranking for precious metals in 2014 and was third in 2013. Prior to providing research under the banner of Commodity Research Group (formerly Madison Holdings), Mr. Meir sourced nonferrous metals out of Europe, China, and Russia for a number of clients, utilizing the 9 years of trading experience he had acquired while working with UK-based trading company Trans-World Metals.

Currently, Mr. Meir’s CRG has been retained by INTL FCStone as an independent research consultant for both base and precious metals. CRG provided similar services to MF Global for eight years prior to its demise in late 2011, covering the suite of energy products as well. Mr. Meir obtained his BA in Economics from Montreal’s McGill University and his MBA from New York University. He is a long-standing registered principle with the National Futures Association and his firm is registered with the NFA as an independent introducing broker.

Jim Colburn is a futures and options professional with 30 years of wide ranging experience in commodity markets. For much of his career, at Man Financial (1989-2011) and Jefferies LLC (2012-2013), Mr. Colburn worked with major integrated oil companies, hedge funds, pension funds and other entities to develop market hedging and trading strategies.

He has conducted trading, hedging and risk management workshops in energy markets worldwide.

Mr. Colburn is a published author on options trading, hedging, market making and risk management. In 1986, while at the New York Mercantile Exchange, Mr. Colburn helped develop new markets in energy option contracts by educating the oil industry, banks, floor traders and brokers, worldwide.

Commodity Research Group

Commodity Research Group Podcast

EKT Interactive Oil and Gas Podcast Network

Oil 101 A Free Online Introduction to the Oil and Gas Industry

The post August Macro Analysis – Metals, Currencies, and the Decoupling of Commodities appeared first on EKT Interactive.

Commodity Research Group (CRG) is an independent research consultancy specializing in base and precious metals, as well energy products. The Group provides research and general price analysis for these markets, along with advice to companies seeking to construct hedging strategies.

In this podcast, oil market experts Andrew Lebow and Jim Colburn discuss key fundamental forces driving oil prices in both the futures and options markets.

If you don't have 35 minutes, I recommend segments 11:35-18:45 for a discussion on product demand and US refining or from 18:55 – 24:50 for their analysis of crude oil inventories.

[01:35] OPEC recap – Production down – Reigning in Nigeria

[04:35] OPEC production call for Q3

[05:50] CSOs – Flat calls gaining momentum throughout curve

[07:00] Structure improves – Z7/Z8 spread making moves – over flat from -2.00

[09:10] US production growth flattening?

[11:35] US product demand and refinery situation

[15:15] Product arbs open

[18:55] EIA statistic analysis and future expectations – Crude stocks drawing significantly

[24:50] Venezuelan sanctions – or lack thereof – and what they could do to the market

[28:30] Price curve structure.

[25:20] Option recap – Implied volatility higher on rally – Z7 60 call has highest open interest

[31:40] $45 – $55 range in tact and still relevant

Andrew Lebow has been involved in the energy derivative area since 1980. He began his career with Shearson Lehman Brothers where he worked in the initial formulation and marketing of the NYMEX WTI crude contract in 1983 as well as the NYMEX gasoline contract in 1985.

Mr. Lebow has appeared before the State Government of Alaska as well as the State Department of Defense to discuss hedging techniques.  Mr. Lebow is also well known as a market analyst and is quoted frequently in the financial press. He has appeared on television on CNBC, NBC, CNN, CBS, and PBS. Mr. Lebow holds a BA from Lafayette College and an MBA from the Kellogg School of Management at Northwestern University.

Jim Colburn is a futures and options professional with 30 years of wide ranging experience in commodity markets. For much of his career, at Man Financial (1989-2011) and Jefferies LLC (2012-2013), Mr. Colburn worked with major integrated oil companies, hedge funds, pension funds and other entities to develop market hedging and trading strategies.

He has conducted trading, hedging and risk management workshops in energy markets worldwide.

Mr. Colburn is a published author on options trading, hedging, market making and risk management. In 1986, while at the New York Mercantile Exchange, Mr. Colburn helped develop new markets in energy option contracts by educating the oil industry, banks, floor traders and brokers, worldwide.

Commodity Research Group

Commodity Research Group Podcast

EIA.gov

OPEC.org

EKT Interactive Oil and Gas Podcast Network

Oil 101 A Free Online Introduction to the Oil and Gas Industry

The post August Oil Market Analysis – Commodity Research Group appeared first on EKT Interactive.

Commodity Research Group (CRG) is an independent research consultancy specializing in base and precious metals, as well energy products. The Group provides research and general price analysis for these markets, along with advice to companies seeking to construct hedging strategies.

In this podcast, oil market experts Andrew Lebow and Jim Colburn discuss key fundamental forces driving oil prices in both the futures and options markets.

If you don't have 30 minutes, I recommend starting at 28:30 for a discussion on crack values, running old refineries hard, key numbers to watch in the coming weeks, and why July gasoline demand could be highest ever.

[01:30] This weeks EIA’s.  Supportive draws (finally), but can they continue?

[03:50] Demand side of the equation.

[05:20] Domestic production and SPR sales.

[08:00] Crude runs and how cracks have recovered since June.

[10:00] Product export demand – eye on Latin America.

[14:00] The recent short-covering rally and CFTC numbers.

[17:15] Latest on OPEC – Nigeria and Libya success is undermining deal.

[19:25] Global demand showing strength – Case for Q3 inventory draws.

[22:00] Price expectations, lowering the range – $55 is a stretch.

[24:30] Price curve structure.

[25:20] Price projection and curve structure.  Eye on Brent and Cracks.

[28:30] Crack forecasts – Running old refineries hard.

[32:00] Key numbers to watch in coming weeks – Why July gas demand may be highest ever.

Andrew Lebow has been involved in the energy derivative area since 1980. He began his career with Shearson Lehman Brothers where he worked in the initial formulation and marketing of the NYMEX WTI crude contract in 1983 as well as the NYMEX gasoline contract in 1985.

Mr. Lebow has appeared before the State Government of Alaska as well as the State Department of Defense to discuss hedging techniques.  Mr. Lebow is also well known as a market analyst and is quoted frequently in the financial press. He has appeared on television on CNBC, NBC, CNN, CBS, and PBS. Mr. Lebow holds a BA from Lafayette College and an MBA from the Kellogg School of Management at Northwestern University.

Jim Colburn is a futures and options professional with 30 years of wide ranging experience in commodity markets. For much of his career, at Man Financial (1989-2011) and Jefferies LLC (2012-2013), Mr. Colburn worked with major integrated oil companies, hedge funds, pension funds and other entities to develop market hedging and trading strategies.

He has conducted trading, hedging and risk management workshops in energy markets worldwide.

Mr. Colburn is a published author on options trading, hedging, market making and risk management. In 1986, while at the New York Mercantile Exchange, Mr. Colburn helped develop new markets in energy option contracts by educating the oil industry, banks, floor traders and brokers, worldwide.

Commodity Research Group

Commodity Research Group Podcast

EIA.gov

OPEC.org

EKT Interactive Oil and Gas Podcast Network

Oil 101 A Free Online Introduction to the Oil and Gas Industry

The post July Oil Market Analysis – Commodity Research Group appeared first on EKT Interactive.

Commodity Research Group (CRG) is an independent research consultancy specializing in base and precious metals, as well energy products. The Group provides research and general price analysis for these markets, along with advice to companies seeking to construct hedging strategies.

In this podcast, oil market experts Andrew Lebow and Jim Colburn discuss key fundamental forces driving oil prices in both the futures and options markets.

Andrew Lebow has been involved in the energy derivative area since 1980. He began his career with Shearson Lehman Brothers where he worked in the initial formulation and marketing of the NYMEX WTI crude contract in 1983 as well as the NYMEX gasoline contract in 1985.

Mr. Lebow has appeared before the State Government of Alaska as well as the State Department of Defense to discuss hedging techniques.  Mr. Lebow is also well known as a market analyst and is quoted frequently in the financial press. He has appeared on television on CNBC, NBC, CNN, CBS, and PBS. Mr. Lebow holds a BA from Lafayette College and an MBA from the Kellogg School of Management at Northwestern University.

Jim Colburn is a futures and options professional with 30 years of wide ranging experience in commodity markets. For much of his career, at Man Financial (1989-2011) and Jefferies LLC (2012-2013), Mr. Colburn worked with major integrated oil companies, hedge funds, pension funds and other entities to develop market hedging and trading strategies.

He has conducted trading, hedging and risk management workshops in energy markets worldwide.

Mr. Colburn is a published author on options trading, hedging, market making and risk management. In 1986, while at the New York Mercantile Exchange, Mr. Colburn helped develop new markets in energy option contracts by educating the oil industry, banks, floor traders and brokers, worldwide.

Commodity Research Group

Commodity Research Group Podcast

EIA.gov

OPEC.org

EKT Interactive Oil and Gas Podcast Network

Oil 101 A Free Online Introduction to the Oil and Gas Industry

The post June Oil Market Analysis – Commodity Research Group appeared first on EKT Interactive.

Commodity Research Group (CRG) is an independent research consultancy specializing in base and precious metals, as well energy products. The Group provides research and general price analysis for these markets, along with advice to companies seeking to construct hedging strategies.

In this podcast, oil market experts Andrew Lebow and Jim Colburn discuss key fundamental forces driving oil prices in both the futures and options markets.

If you don’t have 30 minutes, I recommend first 10 minutes where Andy offers his insight into the current refinery runs and gasoline demand.  It’s pure gold!

[01:30] Too much gas!  Recap of refinery runs and US product yield

[05:50] Gasoline demand

[09:30] Diesel in better shape

[10:20] Market Focus: OPEC Meeting, US Production.

[12:00] US crude exports and the arb

[13:30] US crude oil production – EIA playing catch up

[16:20] CFTC Commitment of Traders – What speculators are doing

[18:00] Options recap – PEMEX hedge and key strike open interest

[21:25] Roll it over: OPEC deal status and meeting expectations

[23:00] 2nd half rebalance?

[25:20] Price projection and curve structure.  Eye on Brent and Cracks.

[29:25] Wrap up

Andrew Lebow has been involved in the energy derivative area since 1980. He began his career with Shearson Lehman Brothers where he worked in the initial formulation and marketing of the NYMEX WTI crude contract in 1983 as well as the NYMEX gasoline contract in 1985.

Mr. Lebow has appeared before the State Government of Alaska as well as the State Department of Defense to discuss hedging techniques.  Mr. Lebow is also well known as a market analyst and is quoted frequently in the financial press. He has appeared on television on CNBC, NBC, CNN, CBS, and PBS. Mr. Lebow holds a BA from Lafayette College and an MBA from the Kellogg School of Management at Northwestern University.

Jim Colburn is a futures and options professional with 30 years of wide ranging experience in commodity markets. For much of his career, at Man Financial (1989-2011) and Jefferies LLC (2012-2013), Mr. Colburn worked with major integrated oil companies, hedge funds, pension funds and other entities to develop market hedging and trading strategies.

He has conducted trading, hedging and risk management workshops in energy markets worldwide.

Mr. Colburn is a published author on options trading, hedging, market making and risk management. In 1986, while at the New York Mercantile Exchange, Mr. Colburn helped develop new markets in energy option contracts by educating the oil industry, banks, floor traders and brokers, worldwide.

Commodity Research Group

Commodity Research Group Podcast

EIA.gov

OPEC.org

EKT Interactive Oil and Gas Podcast Network

Oil 101 A Free Online Introduction to the Oil and Gas Industry

The post May Oil Market Analysis – Commodity Research Group appeared first on EKT Interactive.

Commodity Research Group (CRG) is an independent research consultancy specializing in base and precious metals, as well energy products. The Group provides research and general price analysis for these markets, along with advice to companies seeking to construct hedging strategies.

In this podcast, oil market experts Andrew Lebow and Jim Colburn discuss key fundamental forces driving oil prices in both the futures and options markets.

If you don’t have 35 minutes, I recommend the discussion on products and global demand starting at minute 17.

[02:00] March oil market recap

[03:45] US oil inventories analysis

[04:14] Why draws are coming, regardless of US production

[08:00] OPEC compliance, why rollover is key

[10:35] US production response, producer hedging

[12:30] Crude curve – Backwardation and spread options

[17:00] US product picture and global product demand

[26:40] Price expectations – seasonal plays and refinery turnarounds

[31:00] Risks to the rally

[33:20] Summary and what’s ahead

Andrew Lebow has been involved in the energy derivative area since 1980. He began his career with Shearson Lehman Brothers where he worked in the initial formulation and marketing of the NYMEX WTI crude contract in 1983 as well as the NYMEX gasoline contract in 1985.

Mr. Lebow has appeared before the State Government of Alaska as well as the State Department of Defense to discuss hedging techniques.  Mr. Lebow is also well known as a market analyst and is quoted frequently in the financial press. He has appeared on television on CNBC, NBC, CNN, CBS, and PBS. Mr. Lebow holds a BA from Lafayette College and an MBA from the Kellogg School of Management at Northwestern University.

Jim Colburn is a futures and options professional with 30 years of wide ranging experience in commodity markets. For much of his career, at Man Financial (1989-2011) and Jefferies LLC (2012-2013), Mr. Colburn worked with major integrated oil companies, hedge funds, pension funds and other entities to develop market hedging and trading strategies.

He has conducted trading, hedging and risk management workshops in energy markets worldwide.

Mr. Colburn is a published author on options trading, hedging, market making and risk management. In 1986, while at the New York Mercantile Exchange, Mr. Colburn helped develop new markets in energy option contracts by educating the oil industry, banks, floor traders and brokers, worldwide.

Commodity Research Group

Commodity Research Group Podcast

EIA.gov

OPEC.org

EKT Interactive Oil and Gas Podcast Network

Oil 101 A Free Online Introduction to the Oil and Gas Industry

The post April Oil Market Analysis – Commodity Research Group appeared first on EKT Interactive.

Commodity Research Group (CRG) is an independent research consultancy specializing in base and precious metals, as well energy products. The Group provides research and general price analysis for these markets, along with advice to companies seeking to construct hedging strategies.

In this podcast, oil market experts Andrew Lebow and Jim Colburn discuss key fundamental forces driving oil prices in both the futures and options markets.

[01:25] OPEC Compliance Update

[04:00] 2nd Half Rebalancing

[07:00] Libya and Iraq see uptick in export threats

[09:30] US oil production response to higher prices

[15:10] US product demand picture

[18:35] Mexico – The wildcard threat to US product demand

[19:50] Global demand picture

[22:10] CFTC and Managed money – Still record length

[27:00] $60 end of year consensus

[28:20] The case for lower oil prices

[29:00] Option market analysis – key open interest positions

[31:45] WTI/Brent flat call update

[38:50] Eye on interest rates

Andrew Lebow has been involved in the energy derivative area since 1980. He began his career with Shearson Lehman Brothers where he worked in the initial formulation and marketing of the NYMEX WTI crude contract in 1983 as well as the NYMEX gasoline contract in 1985.

Mr. Lebow has appeared before the State Government of Alaska as well as the State Department of Defense to discuss hedging techniques.  Mr. Lebow is also well known as a market analyst and is quoted frequently in the financial press. He has appeared on television on CNBC, NBC, CNN, CBS, and PBS. Mr. Lebow holds a BA from Lafayette College and an MBA from the Kellogg School of Management at Northwestern University.

Jim Colburn is a futures and options professional with 30 years of wide ranging experience in commodity markets. For much of his career, at Man Financial (1989-2011) and Jefferies LLC (2012-2013), Mr. Colburn worked with major integrated oil companies, hedge funds, pension funds and other entities to develop market hedging and trading strategies.

He has conducted trading, hedging and risk management workshops in energy markets worldwide.

Mr. Colburn is a published author on options trading, hedging, market making and risk management. In 1986, while at the New York Mercantile Exchange, Mr. Colburn helped develop new markets in energy option contracts by educating the oil industry, banks, floor traders and brokers, worldwide.

Commodity Research Group

Commodity Research Group Podcast

EIA.gov

OPEC.org

EKT Interactive Oil and Gas Podcast Network

Oil 101 A Free Online Introduction to the Oil and Gas Industry

The post March Oil Market Analysis – Commodity Research Group appeared first on EKT Interactive.

Commodity Research Group (CRG) is an independent research consultancy specializing in base and precious metals, as well energy products. The Group provides research and general price analysis for these markets, along with advice to companies seeking to construct hedging strategies.

In this podcast, oil market experts Andrew Lebow and Jim Colburn discuss key fundamental forces driving oil prices in both the futures and options markets.

[01:08] OPEC Compliance Key theme dominating the oil market

[04:00] US production response – EIA adjustments

[06:30] Net length in speculative money – a bearish factor

[10:00] US product demand – ‘Tale of Two PAD’s’

[17:00] Global refinery turnarounds – Product rebalancing

[17:45] Why crude market rebalancing could happen in Q2

[21:30] Options  $60 call in June and Dec

[22:15] Geopolitical risk – Iran, Libya, Nigeria, Venezuela

[27:00] Border adjustment tax – WTI/Brent flat call

[33:00] Implied volatility in crude – Lowest since 2014

[37:00] Producer’s in market – Where are they?

Andrew Lebow has been involved in the energy derivative area since 1980. He began his career with Shearson Lehman Brothers where he worked in the initial formulation and marketing of the NYMEX WTI crude contract in 1983 as well as the NYMEX gasoline contract in 1985.

Mr. Lebow has appeared before the State Government of Alaska as well as the State Department of Defense to discuss hedging techniques.  Mr. Lebow is also well known as a market analyst and is quoted frequently in the financial press. He has appeared on television on CNBC, NBC, CNN, CBS, and PBS. Mr. Lebow holds a BA from Lafayette College and an MBA from the Kellogg School of Management at Northwestern University.

Jim Colburn is a futures and options professional with 30 years of wide ranging experience in commodity markets. For much of his career, at Man Financial (1989-2011) and Jefferies LLC (2012-2013), Mr. Colburn worked with major integrated oil companies, hedge funds, pension funds and other entities to develop market hedging and trading strategies.

He has conducted trading, hedging and risk management workshops in energy markets worldwide.

Mr. Colburn is a published author on options trading, hedging, market making and risk management. In 1986, while at the New York Mercantile Exchange, Mr. Colburn helped develop new markets in energy option contracts by educating the oil industry, banks, floor traders and brokers, worldwide.

Commodity Research Group

Commodity Research Group Podcast

EIA.gov

OPEC.org

EKT Interactive Oil and Gas Podcast Network

Oil 101 A Free Online Introduction to the Oil and Gas Industry

The post February Oil Market Analysis – Commodity Research Group appeared first on EKT Interactive.

Commodity Research Group (CRG) is an independent research consultancy specializing in base and precious metals, as well energy products. The Group provides research and general price analysis for these markets, along with advice to companies seeking to construct hedging strategies.

In this podcast, oil market experts Andrew Lebow and Jim Colburn discuss key fundamental forces driving oil prices in both the futures and options markets.

[01:00] OPEC Compliance – Key theme dominating the oil market

[05:00] EIA demand numbers discussed

[07:20] Short-term oil price outlook

[09:00] Inventories – The effect of contango market and OPEC deal rollover

[12:00] Econ 101 – The effect of speculators

[14:50] EIA inventory analysis

[21:00] Trump effect – Mexico product demand – Border adjustment tax

[22:00] Options – Jim Colburn recaps last year – Current volatility and volume

[24:30]  Spread options – What are the current hot trades in the oil options market

Andrew Lebow has been involved in the energy derivative area since 1980. He began his career with Shearson Lehman Brothers where he worked in the initial formulation and marketing of the NYMEX WTI crude contract in 1983 as well as the NYMEX gasoline contract in 1985.

Mr. Lebow has appeared before the State Government of Alaska as well as the State Department of Defense to discuss hedging techniques.  Mr. Lebow is also well known as a market analyst and is quoted frequently in the financial press. He has appeared on television on CNBC, NBC, CNN, CBS, and PBS. Mr. Lebow holds a BA from Lafayette College and an MBA from the Kellogg School of Management at Northwestern University.

Jim Colburn is a futures and options professional with 30 years of wide ranging experience in commodity markets. For much of his career, at Man Financial (1989-2011) and Jefferies LLC (2012-2013), Mr. Colburn worked with major integrated oil companies, hedge funds, pension funds and other entities to develop market hedging and trading strategies.

He has conducted trading, hedging and risk management workshops in energy markets worldwide.

Mr. Colburn is a published author on options trading, hedging, market making and risk management. In 1986, while at the New York Mercantile Exchange, Mr. Colburn helped develop new markets in energy option contracts by educating the oil industry, banks, floor traders and brokers, worldwide.

Commodity Research Group

Commodity Research Group Podcast

EIA.gov

OPEC.org

EKT Interactive Oil and Gas Podcast Network

Oil 101 – A Free Online Introduction to the Oil and Gas Industry

The post January Oil Market Analysis – Commodity Research Group appeared first on EKT Interactive.