Common Sense Fantasy Baseball

@rundmcd is back to talk about evaluating risk!  (AKA "Dave tells me the 3 pitchers I'm allowed to draft this year!")

11:20 Carlos Rodon

22:05 Jacob deGrom

31:15 Shane Bieber

38:50 Chris Sale

44:15 Luis Severino

54:05 Clevinger vs Verlander

1:14:43 Clayton Kershaw, and Dinelson Lamet "When I see PRP, I'm out." - Dave

1:27:30 Zac Gallen

Find us on Twitter!  He's @rundmcd, and I'm @commonsensefbb.

Greg (@gjewett9) helps me size up EVERY team once again, as I do last minute cramming for my Main Event draft tomorrow.

2:05 Baltimore Orioles

3:20 Boston Red Sox

5:25 Chicago White Sox

5:50 Cleveland

9:45 Detroit Tigers

10:45 Houston Astros

12:20 KC Royals

13:50 LA Angels

15:10 Minnesota Twins

16:30 NY Yankees

17:10 Oakland A's

18:15 Seattle Mariners

19:55 Tampa Rays

25:35 Texas Rangers

26:55 Toronto Blue Jays

27:40 Arizona Diamondbacks

29:20 Atlanta Braves

30:25 Chicago Cubs

31:40 Cincinnati Reds

33:40 Colorado Rockies

35:20 LA Dodgers

36:25 Miami Marlins

37:20 Milwaukee Brewers

38:35 NY Mets

39:15 Philadelphia Phillies

41:10 Pittsburgh Pirates

44:10 San Diego Padres

46:25 SF Giants

48:30 St Louis Cardinals

50:10 Washington Nationals

51:55 Speculative pick ups, stashes, and late round darts

Find us on Twitter!  He's @gjewett9, and I'm @commonsensefbb.

Rob and I talk about his podcast and his leagues, and how we're building our teams in DC leagues and FAAB leagues.

06:20 Differences in drafting strategies for Draft and Hold (Draft Champions) leagues vs FAAB leagues

11:00 Catchers

16:45 Closers

22:45 Stolen Bases

31:25 Luis Robert

37:55 Keston Hiura and Javy Baez (and other swing and miss guys)

44:25 Tim Anderson

51:10 Prospects

58:00 Pitchers (Means, Urquidy, Yarbrough, Minor)

1:12:00 Late DC picks

He's @deadpullhitter, I'm @commonsensefbb -- find us on Twitter!

Dave (@RunDMcD) shares what he's learned through years of experience, about how to assess players' risks in fantasy baseball.

1:45 Verlander, going into 2020

6:00 How to think about taking a guy off your board completely

9:35 Sale, Syndergaard, and Severino (don't draft guys who won't be playing)

11:45 Taillon (it can take a while to get back your skills)

18:10 deGrom (we can disagree on how much risk there is, but don't ignore it as a part of the assessment)

27:40 Scherzer (we all see the risks, but we don't seem to know how to price them in)

31:40 Strasburg (fear of the unknown plus the price...plus the fact that he's had injury issues all through the years)

34:10 Lamet (he's injured now...plus, PRP means TJ a lot of the time)

37:20 Carrasco (the risk/reward is a value at the price)

40:30 Musgrove (going late enough to take a risk)

43:35 Canning (after pick 300, go for upside)

46:25 Stanton vs Buxton (price matters, many paths to value, UT downgrade, career IL days, paying for a career year, volume of injuries vs the type of injury -- both matter)

He's @RunDMcD, I'm @commonsensefbb -- find us on Twitter!

@MattWi77iams and I discuss some players we think are going too early:

3:40 Jose Abreu around pick 30 and Luke Voit around pick 60 - Matt

8:25 Pablo Lopez around pick 100 - Drew

15:45 Walker Buehler around pick 20 - Matt

20:30 Kyle Lewis around pick 75 (but even at pick 100-120) - Drew

26:05 Randy Arozarena around pick 60 - Matt

-- 32:20 an aside on Mondesi --

Then we discuss some players we think are going too late:

38:00 Austin Meadows and Yoan Moncada (around pick 85) - Matt

41:45 Matt Chapman around pick 120 - Drew

45:50 Rafael Devers around pick 50 - Matt

48:00 Zack Greinke around pick 100 - Drew

54:00 Bryan Reynolds around pick 325 - Drew

He's @MattWi77iams, I'm @commonsensefbb -- find us on Twitter!

Greg (@gjewett9) and I look at every MLB team and discuss the closer situation, as best we can tell in November.

AMERICAN LEAGUE

1:30 Baltimore Orioles

3:40 Boston Red Sox

6:20 Chicago White Sox

8:25 Cleveland Indians

11:10 Detroit Tigers

13:50 Houston Astros

15:50 Kansas City Royals

18:10 Los Angeles Angels

20:10 Minnesota Twins

21:30 New York Yankees

23:50 Oakland Athletics

26:20 Seattle Mariners

27:35 Tampa Bay Rays

29:10 Texas Rangers

31:45 Toronto Blue Jays

NATIONAL LEAGUE

33:55 Arizona Diamondbacks

36:15 Atlanta Braves

38:30 Chicago Cubs

41:05 Cincinnati Reds

43:40 Colorado Rockies

45:35 Los Angeles Dodgers

47:45 Miami Marlins

50:25 Milwaukee Brewers

54:10 New York Mets

57:05 Philadelphia Phillies

59:15 Pittsburgh Pirates

1:02:05 San Diego Padres

1:04:45 San Francisco Giants

1:06:15 St Louis Cardinals

1:07:15 Washington Nationals

1:08:10 BONUS - Greg's Hader-type breakout formula

He's @gjewett9, I'm @commonsensefbb -- find us on Twitter!

Zack and I take a look at early ADP from Justin Mason's "2 Early Mock Drafts" and Zack's draft and hold leagues that are drafting for real already.

4:10 We gently poke fun at mock drafts and point out some shortcomings

Then we discuss players we think are going too early (AVOIDS):

7:10 Mike Clevinger at ADP 61 (Zack)

19:40 Pete Alonso at ADP 53 (Drew)

25:55 Sixto Sanchez at ADP 80 (Zack)

34:00 Gleyber Torres at ADP 63 (Drew...Zack disagrees)

40:05 Gary Sanchez at ADP 169 (Zack)

45:35 Joey Gallo at ADP 127 (Drew)

Next we move on to players we think are going too late (TARGETS):

50:35 Gio Urshela at ADP 158 (Drew) ...take him instead of Vlad!

56:40 Zach Plesac at ADP 80 (Zack)

1:04:25 Tommy Edman at ADP 179 (Drew)

1:10:30 Dansby Swanson at ADP 106 (Zack)

1:18:07 Triston McKensie at ADP 208 (Drew)

1:27:30 Michael Pineda at ADP 275 (Zack)

Connect with me on Twitter @commonsensefbb!

Toby returns to talk about some up and coming players!

1:10 the keys to Toby's success in 2020

4:45 Off season prep begins!  We start by discussing some lessons learned.

Then we discuss some breakout players:

16:10 Corey Seager

27:40 Luke Voit

34:45 Teoscar Hernandez

42:05 Kyle Lewis

49:20 Dominic Smith

56:00 An aside about Stolen Bases

1:00:50 Austin Nola

1:05:40 Some other guys (Slater, Santander, Cronenworth, Arozarena, Walsh, Happ, Moore)

1:21:40 Who could be the Corbin Burnes or Dylan Bundy of 2021?

Connect with me on Twitter @commonsensefbb!

Some thoughts on strike out rate, BABIP, and what they mean for batting average.

Connect with me on Twitter @commonsensefbb!

Connect with me on Twitter @commonsensefbb!