In my discussion with Mark Tooley of the Institute on Religion and Democracy, we explored the serious flaws in a recent survey that purported to show a “rebound” in Mainline Protestant denominations. The main problem? Well, this survey’s methods made it impossible to distinguish between those who have joined Mainline churches and those who have merely stopped using the terms “evangelical” and “born again” to describe themselves, but remain in conservative churches. This survey, in other words, doesn’t give us any reason to think the long-term trends in the American religious landscape have changed. And this matters because people keep suggesting that the only way to fill our pews is to compromise with modern ideas about sex and gender.

Writing in USA Today before the pandemic, Oliver Thomas made precisely this argument; in his words, “American churches must reject literalism and admit we got it wrong on gay people.” Thomas, whose bio says he’s on the board of contributors at USA Today and is a retired American Baptist Minister, seems to be confusing “literalism” with “inerrancy.” He offers no metaphorical interpretation of the New Testament’s condemnations of homosexual behavior that would render them true in a merely figurative sense. He just thinks they’re wrong, rooted in their authors’ ignorance and prejudice. He makes that abundantly clear.

But between taking potshots at the reliability of Scripture, trotting out the standard tropes about shellfish and menstruation in Leviticus, and listing all the times he thinks Christians have been on the wrong side of history, Thomas does manage to state his argument: “Churches will continue hemorrhaging members,” he writes, “until we face the truth: Being a faithful Christian does not mean accepting everything the Bible teaches.”

We endure this same editorial, with minor variations, every few months from CNN, The New York Times, or some other left-leaning publication. The thesis goes like this: The American church is shrinking, and Christians who won’t get on board with the new sexual orthodoxy are to blame. If the church wants to survive, it needs to modernize its teaching on sexuality and its reading of the Bible, setting aside old prejudices and affirming LGBT identities and lifestyles. As the late Rachel Held Evans wrote at CNN a few years ago, “What millennials really want from the church is not a change in style but a change in substance. We want an end to the culture wars...We want our LGBT friends to feel truly welcome in our faith communities.” Only then, she warned, will churches be able to stem the cascade of younger adults from their exit doors.

Thomas treats the LGBT movement as a kind of new Pentecost: “A great revelation has occurred that is bringing joy and happiness to millions,” he writes, “but it is being met with resistance and retrenchment from many of my colleagues inside the church.” Pointing to statistics about the decline in religious affiliation overall in America, he makes a straightforward cause-and-effect argument that evangelicals and Catholics who won’t accept LGBT identities are at fault. This decline will continue, he laments, “until we muster the courage to face the truth: We got it wrong on gays and lesbians…This shouldn’t alarm or surprise us. We have learned some things that the ancients—including Moses and Paul—simply did not know.”

How to read statistics, evidently, is not among the things we’ve learned.