Concerning AI | Existential Risk From Artificial Intelligence

Timeline For Artificial Intelligence Risks

Peter’s Superintelligence Year predictions (5% chance, 50%, 95%): 2032/2044/2059

You can get in touch with Peter at HumanCusp.com and [email protected]

For reference (not discussed in this episode): Crisis of Control: How Artificial SuperIntelligences May Destroy Or Save the Human Race by Peter J. Scott

Concerning AI | Existential Risk From Artificial Intelligence is made with Jetpack Podcast. Full show notes and every episode at https://concerning.ai/

SpectreAttack.com

Concerning AI | Existential Risk From Artificial Intelligence is made with Jetpack Podcast. Full show notes and every episode at https://concerning.ai/

There are understandable reasons why accomplished leaders in AI disregard AI risks. We discuss what they might be.

Wikipedia’s list of cognitive biases

Alpha Zero

Virtual Reality

recorded January 7, 2017, originally posted to Concerning.AI

Concerning AI | Existential Risk From Artificial Intelligence is made with Jetpack Podcast. Full show notes and every episode at https://concerning.ai/

If the Universe Is Teeming With Aliens, Where is Everybody?

Concerning AI | Existential Risk From Artificial Intelligence is made with Jetpack Podcast. Full show notes and every episode at https://concerning.ai/

Julia Hu, founder and CEO of Lark, an AI health coach, is our guest this episode.

Her tech is really cool and clearly making a positive difference in lots of people’s lives right now.

Longer term, she doesn’t see much to worry about.

Julia’s AGI Prediction: 2087 / 2137 / ??

Concerning AI | Existential Risk From Artificial Intelligence is made with Jetpack Podcast. Full show notes and every episode at https://concerning.ai/

Ted had a fascinating conversation with Sean Lane, founder and CEO of Crosschx. After talking about the power of bots to scale humans, we speculated with a hammering nails analogy. If today we are all pounding in nails with rocks, the coming (next 2-5 years and beyond) democratization of AI will give everyone not just hammers, but nail guns. With these nail guns people will build as-yet unimaginable cities and those cities will be the base from which AGI gets built.

Sean then played out “When will it happen?” game. Adding his answer to ours from last (0054) episode, here are our answers:

When asked if we’re being alarmist on this show, calling out the existential risk from AGI, Sean posited that the alarm helps cause the conditions for the risk to be mitigated so we’ll never be right. The harm we’re alarmist about will never come to pass in part because we’re raising the alarm.

Also, two new (to us) ways to think about why the paperclip maximizer thought experiment is important. Because all AI researchers know about the thought experiment, maximizing paperclips is now a variable applicable to all AI systems. The good guys then will:

Sean’s YouTube channel

Concerning AI | Existential Risk From Artificial Intelligence is made with Jetpack Podcast. Full show notes and every episode at https://concerning.ai/

We often talk about how know one really knows when the singularity might happen (if it does), when human-level AI will exist (if ever), when we might see superintelligence, etc.

Back in January, we made up a 3 number system for talking about our own predictions and asked our community on facebook to play along as well. What we said then was 3 numbers:

At that time, Brandon was 5/30/70 and Ted was 15/30/50.

On this show, without looking back on our previous predictions, we tried it again, this time instead of using years from now, we used dates, to avoid having to do the math each time. Here are our current predictions:

We would love to have you play along this time as well.

References:

Concerning AI | Existential Risk From Artificial Intelligence is made with Jetpack Podcast. Full show notes and every episode at https://concerning.ai/

Great voice memos from listeners led to interesting conversations. Thank you Timo, Kevin, Eric, Bill and Ruth!

Concerning AI | Existential Risk From Artificial Intelligence is made with Jetpack Podcast. Full show notes and every episode at https://concerning.ai/

We continue our mini series about paths to AGI.

See also:

Concerning AI | Existential Risk From Artificial Intelligence is made with Jetpack Podcast. Full show notes and every episode at https://concerning.ai/

We talked about Rodney Brooks Sept 2017 article [FoR&AI] The Seven Deadly Sins of Predicting the Future of AI

Brooks is one of Brandon’s early AI heroes and Ted was ready to rail against the article. Listen in to see how it turned out.

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Concerning AI | Existential Risk From Artificial Intelligence is made with Jetpack Podcast. Full show notes and every episode at https://concerning.ai/