Conflict, Power & Persuasion

Olivier Sibony is a professor, author, and advisor whosework focuses on strategic decision-making and the design of better decision processes. He is a Professor of Strategy at HEC Paris and an Associate Fellow at Oxford University’s Saïd Business School.

Before moving into academia, he spent 25 years with McKinsey & Company, where he was a Senior Partner and held leadership roles in the firm’s strategy practice.

He is the author of You’re About to Make a Terrible Mistake!, and the co-author, with Daniel Kahneman and Cass Sunstein, of Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment. His recent work examines human decision-making in the age of artificial intelligence, including what AI may improve, what it maydistort, and where human responsibility still matters.

In this episode of Conflict, Power & Persuasion, Olivierhelps unpack a topic that sits right beside cognitive bias, but is probably much less familiar: noise.

Some topics discussed include:

• How Olivier’s work as a strategy consultant led him tostudy why smart people make bad decisions.

• Why real-world mistakes are rarely caused by one isolatedbias.

• The target analogy from Noise, and how it helps explainaccuracy, bias, and unwanted variability.

• Why judges, doctors, forecasters, mediators, negotiators,and other professionals may reach very different conclusions from the sameinformation.

• Why noise often goes unnoticed unless we deliberately lookfor it.

• Why the difference between rules and standards matterswhen drafting policies, agreements, and other decision frameworks.

• Why mediation and negotiation raise a difficult question:what exactly is the target we are trying to hit?

• How AI may reduce some forms of judgement error whileraising hard questions about dignity, accountability, procedural justice, andhuman responsibility.

And much more.

Links and Resources

·       Olivier Sibony’s Website

·       OlivierSibony’s Books

·    Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment by Daniel Kahneman, OlivierSibony, and Cass R. Sunstein

·       You’re About to Make a Terrible Mistake! by Olivier Sibony

·       OlivierSibony’s Recent Work on Human Decision-Making and Artificial Intelligence

Federico Varese is a Professor of Criminology at the University of Oxford and a Senior Research Fellow at Nuffield College. His work focuses on organised crime as a system of governance, examining how criminal groups emerge, expand, and adapt across different societies. He has written extensively on the Russian mafia, Italian mafia groups, Somali piracy, the migration and evolution of mafia organisations, and the use of social network analysis to understand criminal behaviour. His recent projects include research on gang governance in the UK, cybercrime markets, illicit financial networks, and the global market for substandard medicines. He is the author of several books, including The Russian Mafia, Mafias on the Move, Mafia Life, and Russia in Four Criminals.  Federico’s research and commentary have appeared across leading media platforms, including The Economist, the BBC, The Guardian, and The New York Times.

In this episode of Conflict, Power, and Persuasion, FedericoVarese takes us inside the hidden machinery of mafia governance; how these groups rise, rule, and reveals their negotiation and power strategies along the way.

Some topics discussed include:

• What counts as organised crime, and the three core functions these groups serve in society.
• How mafia organisations like the Ndrangheta end up performing state-like roles in protection, dispute resolution, and governance.
• The global scale of organised crime, and why tens of millions of people live under the rule of criminal governance.
• How weak justice systems, slow courts, and limited access to social services create conditions for organised crime to take hold.
• What the origins of mafia groups reveal; from shifts out of feudal systems to the shared rules and doctrines that underpin membership across cultures.
• Why effective reintegration after conflict is critical to prevent armed groups from entering into organised crime.
• What Federico’s research on mafia behaviour reveals about negotiation, from informational power and credible commitments to trust, respect, reputation, and the ways criminal groups influence others without relying solely on violence.

And much more…

Links:

Federico Varese’s Website : https://federicovarese.com/

Mafias on the Move (book) : https://www.amazon.com/dp/0691128553Mafia Life: Love, Death and Money at the Heart of Organised Crime - https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0791KTC9K

Russia in Four Criminals (latest book):https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0DFDPDWM7

Latin America Citizen Security Survey on
https://www.iadb.org/en/news/citizen-security-latin-america-and-caribbean

Sue Williams is one of the world’s most experienced hostage negotiators. A former senior detective at Scotland Yard, she led both the Kidnap and Hostage Crisis Negotiation Units and played a central role in the UK’s national crisis response to overseas abductions -regularly advising Prime Ministers and senior ministers during high-stakes incidents. Over her career, she has helped resolve hundreds of hostage situations - on land, at sea, and in conflict zones.Sue is an Associate Fellow at Oxford University’s Saïd Business School, where she teaches negotiation strategy through the lens of crisis negotiation. She also lectures at Harvard University and works with humanitarian actors on crisis planning and response. Awarded the Queen’s Police Medal for her service, she now advises private organizations, companies, and families navigating critical incidents such as extortion, cyber threats, and abductions.In this episode of Conflict Power and Persuasion, Sue, takes us from the front lines of international hostage cases to the world of business - revealing the deep overlap between crisis negotiation and strategic leadership.

Some topics discussed include…

• Her personal approach to preparation before entering high-stakes negotiations

• Why establishing proof of life is a critical early step

• The danger of labelling individuals as “hostages” -and the importance of humanizing them to build empathy

• How hostage negotiation dynamics have evolved, including the impact of copycat scenarios and modern communication channels• Practical strategies for de-escalation in volatile situations

• Which crisis negotiation skills translate effectively into business or workplace contexts

• The ongoing need to build and maintain trust throughout the negotiation process

• The critical role of personal security planning and mitigation training in high-risk environments

• And much more…

Links:

Pip decks Negotiation Tactics: Explore Negotiation Tactics – a deck co-developed by Sue, applying negotiation tactics to everyday decision-making.

Ken Cloke is a globally recognized mediator, dialogue facilitator, and conflict resolution systems designer with over 40 years of experience. As Director of the Center for Dispute Resolution, he specializes in resolving complex disputes across sectors, including workplace, public policy, and cross-cultural dialogues. A co-founder of Mediators Beyond Borders, Ken has worked in over 25 countries and is the author of several influential books, including Mediating Dangerously, The Dance of Opposites, and his most recent work, The Magic in Mediation. He serves as an adjunct professor at institutions such as Pepperdine and USC, holds a Ph.D. from UCLA, and is a pioneer in designing preventative conflict resolution systems. A sought-after speaker and thought leader, Ken has dedicated his career to advancing innovative, inclusive approaches to conflict resolution worldwide.

Some Topics Discussed Include: 

Links:

Katrina Abatis is a Senior Program Officer in the Mediation Support Team at the Center for Security Studies (CSS), a think tank at ETH Zürich. She is the author of the paper featured in this episode, "Inviting the Elephant into the Room: Culturally Oriented Mediation and Peace Practice," written as part of the Culture and Religion in Mediation (CARIM) program, a joint project between the CSS and the Swiss Federal Department of Foreign Affairs (FDFA).

Some topics discussed include:

With seven award-nominated albums to his name, Emmanuel has collaborated and performed alongside musical legends like Lauryn Hill, Peter Gabriel, Ed Sheeran, Joss Stone, and Alicia Keys, marking his presence at global events including Nelson Mandela’s 90th Birthday Concert, Live 8, and the One Concert for the Dalai Lama.

His journey from child soldier to the world stage is captured in his autobiography and the award-winning documentary "Warchild." Emmanuel’s acting talents were also showcased alongside Reese Witherspoon in "The Good Lie”.

As a dedicated peace ambassador, Emmanuel founded Gua Africa (GWA), providing educational support to those affected by war in East Africa, and spearheaded the 'We Want Peace' campaign, securing backing from global

In this episode of Conflict, Power, and Persuasion, Emmanuel shares lessons and philosophies from his experiences as a refugee and child soldier, as detailed in his new book: My Life is Art. He discusses how life, much like a canvas, is shaped by our actions and experiences, offering his principles for overcoming adversity.

Links:

Emmanuel's Website

Emmanuel's Ted Talk

My Life Is Art

Emmanuel’s Books on Amazon

Gua Africa

We Want Peace Campaign

Movie: The Good Lie

In this podcast, we feature tracks from Emmanuel Jal

Aqeela Sherrills is a seasoned activist with over three decades of

Beyond his on-ground efforts, Aqeela has advised The International Association of Chiefs of Police and is renowned for

In this episode of Conflict, Power, and Persuasion, Aqeela

Aqeela has been a trailblazer in this arena for decades, and he shares invaluable insights on effective strategies and the necessary shifts needed to reshape the narrative surrounding street violence.

Links:

Malcolm X Autobiography

Amer-I-Can

Snowfall Series

Newark Community Street Team

EJ USA Trauma to Trust Initiative 

Community Based Public Safety Collective

Dag Nylander is a Norwegian diplomat, and is currently the

Some topics discussed include:

Out of the Jungle, by Dag Nylander and Tove Gravdal

Alexandra Zimmerman founded and chairs the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN), Human-Wildlife Conflict Task Force. She's also a member of several IUCN groups, including the Asian Elephant Specialist Group, the Cat Specialist Group, SOS Technical

Some topics discussed include:

Links:

IUCN SSC Human-Wildlife Conflict & Coexistence

IUCN Human Wildlife Conflict and Coexistence

IUCN SSC Guidelines on Human-Wildlife

Jeanne Brett is a highly distinguished and accomplished scholar in the field of dispute resolution. She is the DeWitt W. Buchanan, Jr. Distinguished Professor Emerita of Dispute Resolution and Organizations and the former director of the Kellogg School’s Dispute Resolution Research Center.  Jean’s research has focused on cross-cultural negotiations, the resolution of disputes, and the performance of multicultural teams. Her current work explores culture and negotiation strategies, as well as the interface between AI and negotiations. She is a prolific author of books, journal articles, and negotiation teaching materials, including the award-winning books Getting Disputes Resolved with William Ury and Stephen Goldberg and the single-authored Negotiating Globally. She has initiated and taught Kellogg's MBA courses in negotiations since 1981 and in cross-cultural negotiations since 1994. Her most recent book is

On this episode of Conflict Power and Persuasion, Jeanne shares insights from her pioneering research, which have led to seminal ideas such as Interests, Rights and Power, and Dispute Resolution systems design. She also discusses her current research on negotiation and Artificial Intelligence,as well as exploring the crucial role of trust in negotiations across different cultures.

Links: