The 50-basis-point cut in the Fed funds rate was the major news of the third quarter in U.S. investment markets, but the biggest question ahead for insurers – and just about everyone else – is: What’s up in politics?
Rich Sega, Conning’s Global Chief Investment Strategist, makes that question the sole focus of the Conning ConnText podcast for the fourth quarter. As most know, questions abound. “Markets hate uncertainties and there are many involved here,” said Sega, “from voter turnout to integrity of voter rolls and eligibility, to down-ballot performance, to post-election legal challenges; so much we don’t know.”
Sega and his guest Michael Mix, a Conning managing director and portfolio manager, discuss the many issues on the political agenda and what the final votes may mean for insurance company investment portfolios. While much separates the two main candidates for president, Mix notes they do have one thing in common: “both are likely to expand the deficit which, if that requires the issuance of more U.S. treasurys, could be an upside risk to inflation and interest rates.” If interest rate volatility remains, Mix added, duration-neutral portfolios are the better long-term positioning.
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