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Imagine a world where the green transition is happening at lightning speed, but that speed comes with a hidden, high-stakes trade war. Right now, China produces a staggering 93 percent of the world’s polysilicon and nearly 97 percent of the wafers that power our solar panels. For many, this is a miracle of efficiency that makes clean energy cheap and accessible. But for European policymakers, it looks less like a miracle and more like a dangerous vulnerability. When the market is flooded with low-cost components, it might be great for your electricity bill, but it is devastating for domestic factories that simply cannot compete on price. We have seen this movie before. Between 2011 and 2013, the solar industry faced a massive crisis. Anti-dumping duties and trade probes sparked a chaotic shakeout that saw major firms collapse, ultimately leading to a more consolidated, state-backed Chinese sector. Today, the tension is back, but the tools of the trade have changed. The European Union is no longer just watching from the sidelines. With a new arsenal of regulations—like the Foreign Subsidies Regulation and the Net-Zero Industry Act—Europe is trying to draw a line in the sand.
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