Consumer Credit Matters

For years, the market has been waiting for the US consumer to crack. It hasn’t happened yet. Elana Lipchak, Head of US ABS Research at Barclays, joins Consumer Credit Matters to explain why consumer credit has held up, where the pressure points are, and what could change the picture in 2027.

We cover:

• Takeaways from ABS East in Miami and the recent spread widening
• Real wages, gas and diesel prices, and the K-shaped economy
• Lender underwriting discipline and the Senior Loan Officer Survey
• Auto ABS: longer loan terms, older used cars and subprime after Tricolor
• Why the NY Fed’s “GFC-level” delinquency headlines can mislead
• Credit cards, personal loans and buy now pay later (BNPL)
• Student loans: the payment pause, Grad PLUS caps and private lending
• Barclays’ early outlook for consumer credit and ABS spreads in 2027

00:00 ABS East 2026 Takeaways: Spreads Widen, Investors Turn Constructive

05:28 The Impact of SEC Regulations on ABS

05:28 Consumer Credit Landscape and Economic Indicators

05:28 Consumer Spending Trends and Inflation Effects

05:28 Underwriting Standards and Credit Demand

05:28 State of the US Consumer: Real Wages, Gas Prices and the K-Shaped Economy

11:43 Underwriting Standards: Senior Loan Officer Survey and Lender Discipline

14:06 Auto Loan ABS: Longer Loan Terms, Older Used Cars and Subprime After Tricolor

18:34 Credit Card Delinquencies: NY Fed vs. Federal Reserve Data and Credit Lines

26:14 Personal Loans and Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL): Affirm and Payment Priority

33:37 Student Loans: Payment Pause, Grad PLUS Caps and Private Lending

36:21 2027 Outlook: Consumer Credit Performance and ABS Spreads

Consumer Credit Matters is an independent research, newsletter and podcast platform for structured finance and consumer credit professionals, hosted by Will Black, former Managing Director of consumer ABS ratings at Moody’s.

Subscribe to the CCM Weekly newsletter: https://www.consumercreditmatters.com/subscribe

Guest views are their own and do not necessarily reflect those of their employers. This episode is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice.

John Costa spent 40 years in consumer credit and securitization — from E.F. Hutton and the first timeshare ABS deal to building Merrick Bank at CardWorks. He walks through the innovations that worked, the one that didn't survive 2008, and the bank-charter decision every fintech faces today.

John recently retired as Senior Vice President of CardWorks, the consumer credit originator and servicer behind Merrick Bank. He started at E.F. Hutton's Hutton Indemnity during the birth of the monoline financial guaranty business, and was on the ground floor of timeshare securitization and extendable asset-backed commercial paper.

In this episode:

– The first timeshare securitization, and why the rating agencies almost refused to take the meeting

– How timeshare ABS performed through the financial crisis

– Points programs, brand strength, and the illiquidity that still defines timeshare

– Asset-backed commercial paper at $1.2 trillion, and how extendable ABCP tried to separate liquidity risk from credit risk

– Why market psychology beat the analytics in 2008

– CardWorks' decision to form Merrick Bank rather than rent a charter, and why it still matters for fintechs

– Merrick's expansion into merchant acquiring, RV lending, GreenSky, and the Ally credit card acquisition

– Whether fintech lenders have really been tested by a credit cycle

– John's novel, Sex, Lies and Securitization

Consumer Credit Matters is an independent research, newsletter, and podcast platform for structured finance and consumer credit professionals, hosted by William Black, former Managing Director for consumer ABS ratings at Moody's.

Subscribe to CCM Weekly:https://www.consumercreditmatters.com/subscribe

John's novel: https://www.amazon.ca/stores/John-Costa/author/B00TOZZJS0?ref=ap_rdr&shoppingPortalEnabled=true

Carvana built its brand by killing the dealership. Now it's buying them.

Host William Black sits down with Charlie O'Shea (President, O'Shea Advisors and the analyst who first called Carvana the "Amazon of auto retail") to unpack Carvana's push into franchised Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep, and Ram stores, and what it means for the company's credit and securitization profile.

In this episode:

• The CDJR acquisitions and how the anti-dealership disruptor became a top national Chrysler-Dodge-Jeep-Ram dealer.
• The Casa Grande, Arizona pilot that went from roughly 30 to 50 units a month to about 350, per Stellantis figures reported by the Wall Street Journal.
• Incumbent pushback from Stellantis
• The CarMax precedent: it ran its own franchised playbook starting in the mid-1990s and spent two decades walking away from it. Carvana's warrant tied to Bezos-backed
• EV startup Slate Auto, and what the dealership rail could mean for EV distribution.
• And the ABS read-through: how the move could reshape the CRVNA collateral profile.

A practitioner's look at whether Carvana is re-treading a path the market already abandoned, or building something genuinely different this time.

Consumer Credit Matters is a research, newsletter, and podcast platform for structured finance and consumer credit professionals.

Newsletter and research: https://www.consumercreditmatters.com/

Watch on YouTube: https://youtu.be/fntGvXJ4cVg

There's an operational layer underneath consumer credit that most analysts never see: what actually happens to retail inventory when it doesn't sell, when a retailer goes bankrupt, or when a brand orders too much for the wrong season. Someone has to move those goods, and how efficiently they get moved determines recovery values in bankruptcy, margin protection for healthy brands, and signals about where retailers are headed next.

In this episode of Consumer Credit Matters, Will Black sits down with Alex Hennick, founder of AD Hennick & Associates, a Toronto-based firm that operates globally across the inventory business, from bidding on distressed assets in retail bankruptcies to clearing excess inventory for successful brands without damaging their pricing or channel relationships. Alex shares a case study of liquidating a 50,000 square foot Toronto barbecue store in a single week, walks through the mechanics of brand protection in inventory management, and offers a candid view from the front lines on tariffs, the COVID over-ordering hangover, and the structural decline of mall retail.

Will and Alex cover how retail inventory liquidation actually works, including the bid process, the time pressure of standing leases, and what drives recoveries. They go inside the quieter but larger business of inventory management for healthy brands, where channel restrictions and brand protection often matter more than price, and where some manufacturers would rather destroy product than sell it into the wrong market. Alex shares what he is seeing on the front lines right now: tariffs compressing margins overnight, consumers trading down to discount and secondary channels, the COVID-era over-ordering hangover still working through the system, and the structural decline of mall retail, with Eddie Bauer, Off Fifth, and Beyond the Rack as case studies.

Alex Hennick is the founder of AD Hennick & Associates, which he launched 17 years ago. From a Toronto base, the firm operates globally on both sides of the inventory business, bidding on distressed assets from bankrupt retailers and manufacturers, and partnering with successful brands on excess inventory, canceled orders, and close-dated product. With proprietary warehousing, an 80,000-person buyer network, and auction infrastructure, AD Hennick clears goods quickly while protecting brand value and channel relationships.

For institutional investors in consumer ABS, retail credit, and trade finance, this is a side of the ecosystem you rarely hear from directly, and a leading indicator of what eventually shows up in recovery rates, charge-off curves, and retailer bankruptcies.

Consumer Credit Matters is hosted by Will Black, founder of Black Analytics LLC and a 25+ year veteran of consumer structured finance. CCM brings institutional-quality analysis and practitioner perspectives to the consumer credit and structured finance community.

Subscribe to the Consumer Credit Matters LinkedIn newsletter for written analysis and episode recaps: https://www.linkedin.com/newsletters/consumer-credit-matters-7034965118010413056/

Bonnie Seideman has spent thirty years inside the machinery of consumer credit — from subprime auto in 1990s Dallas to running capital markets at Capital One, Santander, GE Capital, and Synchrony.

In this episode of Consumer Credit Matters, Bonnie walks through how the modern consumer ABS market got built, what she saw before the Great Financial Crisis broke it, and what actually got fixed afterward. Topics include FICO-era credit modeling, monoline wraps, gain-on-sale accounting, the originate-to-distribute model, the cocktail-party tells that flagged the GFC, CDOs and synthetic structures, and the post-crisis rebuild — TALF, risk retention, disclosure, and skin in the game.

In the final segment, Bonnie shares something personal: an ALS diagnosis, and how she's channeling her energy now into raising awareness and funding research.

If you originate, fund, or invest in consumer loans, this is a conversation about the plumbing of your business — told by someone who helped build it.

CHAPTERS

00:00 — Intro: 30 Years in Consumer ABS with Bonnie Seideman

01:40 — How Modern Securitization Got Built: Subprime Auto and FICO

05:29 — Monoline Wraps and Scaling Capital One's ABS Program

10:53 — Gain-on-Sale Accounting and the Originate-to-Distribute Era

16:14 — Front Row at the GFC: Home Equity, CDOs, and the Signals Bonnie Saw

29:09 — After Lehman: TALF, Risk Retention, and Skin in the Game

34:35 — Inside the Capital Markets Seat: Translator Across Origination, Servicing, and Finance

37:59 — A Personal Turn: Bonnie's ALS Diagnosis

SUPPORT BONNIE'S ALS FUNDRAISING

Bonnie was diagnosed with ALS and is raising funds and awareness for ALS research.

Donate directly to her ALS Association page: https://web.alsa.org/goto/bonnieseideman

Organizations advancing ALS research, advocacy, and patient support:

ALS Association — https://www.als.org

I AM ALS — https://www.iamals.org

Team Gleason — https://www.teamgleason.org

Target ALS — https://www.targetals.org

Les Turner ALS Foundation — https://www.lesturnerals.org

The First Investment-Grade Bitcoin-Backed ABS — How Ledn Did ItIn February 2026, launched a groundbreaking $200 million Bitcoin-collateralized loan ABS, rated BBB- by S&P Global — the first investment-grade rating ever assigned to a Bitcoin-backed securitization. Then, during pricing, Bitcoin dropped nearly 30%. The structural safeguards held.In this episode of Consumer Credit Matters, host William Black speaks with Adam Reeds, CEO and co-founder of Ledn, about how the deal came together, how it performed under real stress, and what it means for the future of digital asset capital markets.Topics covered:• How Bitcoin-backed lending works and why HODLers borrow instead of sell• LTV triggers, margin mechanics, and automatic liquidation at 80% LTV• Bitcoin market structure, price oracles, and liquidity risk• Lessons from past "crypto winters"• How Fidelity (custodian), Zaria (backup servicer), and S&P came together to make the deal possible• The live 30% Bitcoin price drop during pricing — and why the WSJ misread it• Revolving structure, legal final maturity, and interest coverage in an ABS wrapper• Global borrower geography, country concentration limits, and how Bitcoin flips traditional credit analysis• The addressable market: $3B today, potential path to $300BChapters:0:00 Bitcoin-Backed ABS: The First Investment-Grade Deal1:40 Ledn's Origin Story: From Renewable Energy to Bitcoin Lending4:50 Why Bitcoin Holders Borrow Instead of Sell — and How the Loans Work11:28 Bitcoin Market Structure, Crypto Winters, and the Road to ABS16:11 Building the Credit Stack: Fidelity, S&P, and Backup Servicing21:58 How S&P Rated a Bitcoin ABS BBB-: Price Oracles and Eight Years of Data23:37 Live Stress Test: 30% Bitcoin Drop During Pricing27:14 The WSJ Got It Wrong: Why Liquidations Were a Feature, Not a Bug29:30 Deal Mechanics: Revolving Structure, Legal Final, and Interest Coverage35:25 Global Borrowers, Jurisdiction Risk, and the $300B OpportunityGuest: Adam Reeds, CEO & Co-Founder, LednHost: William Black, Founder, Black Analytics | Former Moody's Managing DirectorConsumer Credit Matters is a podcast for structured finance and consumer credit professionals.#Bitcoin #AssetBackedSecurities #StructuredFinance #ABS #Securitization #CryptoFinance #Ledn #ConsumerCredit #FixedIncome #DigitalAssets

Brian Terr, who heads JD Power's Inventory Data Sales unit, joins Consumer Credit Matters to unpack how dealer inventory data intersects with auto finance, floorplan lending, and collateral accuracy.

In this episode, we explore why tracking what is actually on a vehicle matters so much, how “power booking” can distort LTV assumptions, and how lenders can use near-real-time inventory data to better understand risk.

Key topics in this episode:

• Brian Terr’s path from Edmunds to Inventory Command Center to JD Power

• Why inventory tracking matters from OEM to floorplan to retail financing

• How collateral errors can affect loan to value assumptions

• What “power booking” means in practice

• How lenders use near-real-time inventory data to monitor in-stock versus sold vehicles

• Why proprietary build data and Monroney label information can improve accuracy

Chapters:

00:00 Brian Terr (JD Power): inventory data, floorplan risk, and auto finance

04:09 Why inventory tracking matters (OEM → floorplan → retail financing)

06:32 “Power booking” explained: when LTV collateral value is wrong

09:55 How lenders use near-real-time dealer inventory data (in-stock vs sold)

16:13 AI limits, proprietary vehicle build data (Monroney), and the CDK outage story

About the show:

Consumer Credit Matters explores the trends, risks, and structural issues shaping consumer lending and specialty finance.

Subscribe for more conversations on auto finance, ABS, underwriting, and consumer credit.

#ConsumerCreditMatters #AutoFinance #JDPower #FloorplanLending #AssetBackedSecurities #ConsumerCredit

Collections is often discussed from the consumer angle. In this episode, Will Black goes inside the collector side of the business with John Bedard (Bedard Law Group), who advises debt collectors, debt buyers, and creditors on compliance, regulation, and litigation risk.

We cover what “reg-lite” can mean in practice, how state and local requirements continue to shape day-to-day collections strategy, and why navigating federal, state, and even municipal rules is a core operating competency in 2026.

We also dig into:

• How serious operators build and maintain compliance management systems

• What AI changes in collections, including the idea of software as the “near-perfect collector” when trained to stay inside jurisdiction-by-jurisdiction guardrails

• Credit reporting and medical debt, including the state-level push to restrict reporting and the legal uncertainty that follows

#consumercredit #collections #compliance

Mortgage credit scoring is entering a new competitive phase—raising practical questions for originators, aggregators, guarantors, and RMBS investors about calibration, comparability, and workflow adoption.

In this episode, VantageScore leaders, Rikard Bandebo and Tony Hutchinson, break down what’s changing, why it matters, and what to watch next—including the push toward cash-flow and open-banking data.

What we cover:

• Why mortgage scoring is changing—and what “FICO classic” really means

• Trended data and newer risk signals: what improves, what doesn’t

• Adoption friction: workflow inertia across the mortgage ecosystem• Investor questions: disclosure, comparability, and spread implications

• The next frontier: open banking / cash-flow data and “VantageScore 4 Plus”

Listen and subscribe

Retailers are navigating a complicated environment marked by structural shifts, uneven consumer strength, and lingering pandemic-era distortions. In this episode, retail expert Charlie O’Shea, known for his clear-eyed analysis, returns to break down why some big-box operators continue to outperform—and why Target’s Q3 numbers require a more nuanced read than the headlines suggest.

What we cover:
• How years of strategic investment created today’s retail “haves and have-nots”
• The role of store-based fulfillment and the rise of buy-online-pickup-in-store
• Why Target’s Q3 results are misunderstood—and what the underlying data shows
• The changing profile of today’s consumer and the impact of inflation, SNAP, and credit
• A realistic holiday spending outlook based on Q3 earnings and consumer behavior

Topics:
consumer credit, abs, securitization, retail, big-box, Target, Walmart, consumer spending, credit risk, store cards, Charlie O’Shea

#consumercredit #abs #securitization #lending #capitalmarkets #retail #bigbox #consumertrends #creditrisk