Better late than never.
Hope your supply chain is holding up better than my audio equipment.
The ceasefire news is hogging the headlines, but don't let the noise fool you;the Straits of Hormuz are still effectively a "no-go" zone for container ships. While carriers like CMA CGM and COSCO are trickling a few vessels out, nobody is exactly rushing back in.
Ocean rates are staying surprisingly soft at around $2,500 for Transpacific lanes due to a massive ghost of overcapacity. Meanwhile, Air Cargo is getting absolutely pummeled, with South Asia to Europe rates spiking 60% to over $4.00/kg. It’s a tale of two markets: one is floating on a sea of extra ships, and the other is running out of jet fuel.
I’m not crying about these air rates. You are. (Actually, we both are). If we don't see fuel availability stabilize in hubs like Singapore soon, we might all be shipping via carrier pigeon.
Chapters:
00:00 — Microphone Malfunctions and Strait Talk
01:15 — The "Hostage" Ships: Who is actually getting out?
03:45 — The GRI Bluff: Why $6,000 rates aren't happening
05:30 — Overcapacity: The only thing keeping ocean rates alive
08:15 — Air Cargo's 60% Nightmare: Fuel, Flights, and Fumes
11:00 — Singapore’s Fuel Clock: 30 days and counting
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