In episode 70 of Conversion Rate Optimization with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna explore why traditional frequentist statistics can lead CRO teams astray. They walk through a concrete example: a SaaS company that ran a classic A-B test on a pricing page, got a p-value of 0.04, declared a winner, and then saw results reverse within a week. The hosts explain how Bayesian analysis—using prior data and posterior probabilities—would have caught the fragility early. They break down prior distributions, credible intervals, and the rule of thumb: if your Bayesian probability of beating the control is below 95 percent, hold the test. No math PhD required. This episode gives you the one framework change that can save your roadmap from false positives.