GPUs versus TPUs, depreciating GPUs and data centers that may never be built - Cool Vector experts take you inside the issues causing the most uncertainty in the global data center market.

A year ago, TD Cowan's Michael Elias roiled the data center world when he reported Microsoft was pulling back from some of its projects. Today, a "winner take most" urgency continues to drive the market, but hyperscalers increasingly are aware that what is being built today may not be optimized for the compute needs of tomorrow.

In "Inside the 'Winner Take Most' Hyperscaler Battle," Cool Vector's David Snow speaks with Elias, the Director of Equity Research for Communications Infrastructure at TD Cowen, Eli Scher, Managing Partner at United Integrity Advisors, and Phillip Koblence a Cool Vector editorial director, as well as COO of NYI, CEO of Critical Ventures, UIA and a co-founder of Nomad Futurist. Among the takeaways of this lively conversation:

• Why Microsoft’s pullback was less a demand collapse than a pipeline triage. What initially appeared to be a hyperscaler retreat was in fact a selective pruning of under-deliverable projects, coinciding with workload redistribution toward partners such as Oracle and CoreWeave. “They went through and they culled the pipeline and removed the stuff that didn’t make sense," says Scher.

• Why forecasted compute demand continues to be impossible to keep up with, and why some data center developers will get "a bit over their skiis" along the way, says Elias.

• The entrance of "GPU on demand" players like CoreWeave is confusing some market observers as to the ultimate source of demand, causing some to wonder, "Who's workload is it anyway?"

• Depreciation schedules of data center assets are central to business models, but no one knows the true life of new GPU chips. One problem, say our experts, is that GPUs are designed to run parallel workloads, but actual future workload needs may end up being more focused, making chips like Google's TPUs a more cost-effective solution. 

• Why GPU deployment is pushing the "upper bounds" of data center infrastructure.

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The future of the digital infrastructure asset class can be seen in the history of the real estate asset class, experts from PREA and Five Point Infrastructure tell Cool Vector. 

A mountain of institutional capital is eyeing data centers, but investors - including US pension funds - can often spend years studying a new asset class before beginning to allocate to it. Real estate is a good example of this journey from a niche opportunity, deemed uninvestable by institutional capital, to an enormous, universally embraced, mature asset class. 

Cool Vector spoke with two institutional investment experts to better understand the current view of data centers among institutional real estate investors, and what the future may hold for digital infrastructure in the institutional portfolio. 

This fascinating conversation between Greg MacKinnon, Director of Research at Pension Real Estate Association (PREA) and Jeff Eaton, a Partner at Five Point Infrastructure, covers topics of interest to anyone seeking to better understand the increasing partnership between private capital and data centers. Among the key takeaways:

• Institutional investors are just beginning the learning curve on data centers—just like they once did with real estate. Despite massive interest, pensions and endowments are still figuring out which allocation "bucket" data centers belong in, and how to underwrite them—a process similar to how real estate entered institutional allocations in the 1970s. “Everyone's learning about it, but it takes a while for an institutional investor to get to a point where they can actually sort of put capital to work," says MacKinnon. 

• Institutional investors—especially public pensions—move slowly and cautiously when adopting a new category, but once it's approved, that category can rapidly grow to become a core portfolio component. "They have to go through a rigorous allocation process, which can take six months, a year, a year and a half, especially if you're a sovereign wealth fund or a public pension fund," says Eaton.

• Greenfield data center projects offer high returns, but carry risk many investors are not yet equipped to manage. “That just causes an institutional investor to have to do even more work: Is it worth the extra three or 400 basis points for this extra risk that I'm taking?" asks Eaton.

• Data center demand is creating new adjacent investment themes—especially around energy infrastructure. “Even if you've allocated to data centers before, there's going to be other opportunities for you to get decent returns by having derivative exposure to the data center asset class," says Eaton.

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Energy Capital Partners, among the most dominant energy players in the global data center market, now sees an upside potential to its many power-plant sites that did not exist during decades of zero-growth in the electricity markets, says Andrew Gilbert, a Partner at ECP. 

Gilbert recently sat for an interview with Cool Vector, during which he described ECP's response the surging demand for energy out of the digital infrastructure and manufacturing spaces. 

ECP has become a highly sought-after power-infrastructure partner for the data-center industry by financing and operating generation platforms that directly underpin hyperscale and cloud-campus build-outs. With more than $32 billion in committed capital since its 2005 founding, ECP's marquee partnerships include a $50 billion strategic alliance with KKR and a $25 billion joint venture with Abu Dhabi’s ADQ. 

Among the key takeaways of the interview:

• Tapping existing power supply remains far less expensive than building out new capacity. That said, ECP is now seeing opportunities to add capacity to existing power-plant sites, wheras in years prior its portfolio of assets was acquired at valuations well below replacement cost. 

While at Google, where he led data center acquisitions across North America, Raj Vohra learned "we're just scratching the surface of what the world needs for compute capacity," says Vohra, now the head of data center investing for Thor Equities.

"We'll see evolutions of different product types," Vorha tells Cool Vector in a wide-ranging interview. "There's going to be a lot of demand in a lot of different forms over the foreseeable future."

Vorha speaks with Cool Vector's David Snow about what he learned at Google about data centers, and what Thor Equities' approach will be to the digital infrastructure opportunity. Among the topics discussed:

Demand for compute continues to outpace supply. From his decade at Google, Vohra learned that demand for compute capacity is only accelerating, driven by both consumer and enterprise applications. The last few years have seen demand far exceed supply, creating urgency around quality sites with available power. “For 10 years now, there's been a supply demand mismatch, but I would say in the last couple years, that demand just blew past supply," he says.

Thor Equities’ data center strategy targets growth markets. Thor, a $20 billion AUM investment firm best known for its track record in real estate, is not chasing the crowded, established hubs of Northern Virginia or Silicon Valley. Instead, its focus is on land acquisition and infrastructure development in “path of growth” markets that hyperscalers will need next. "We're focused on real estate infrastructure development for hyperscale data centers in what I would call next-up markets, in the path of growth for large hyperscale development users," Vohra says. 

Industrial real estate expertise provides a competitive edge. Thor’s long track record in industrial real estate translates well into the infrastructure demands of data centers. Teams that know how to handle utilities, municipalities, and complex site development are able to bridge into data centers faster, even as specialists are still needed. “The data center acquisition and development space is ultimately an infrastructure game," Vohra says. 

Agentic AI is driving the use of modular data centers, according to Tony Grayson, former President of Compass Datacenters, and now President and General Manager of Northstar Federal and Northstar Enterprise & Defense, where he has innovated modular data centers designed to bring flexibility and efficiency to a market in which technology evolves faster than traditional large-scale data centers can keep up with.

Grayson is a well-known leader within the data center world. In a lively conversation with his friends and industry sojourners Phillip Koblence and Nabeel Mahmood, Grayson talks about the frustrating history and bright future of modular data centers and the AI applications that are finally driving demand for smaller data centers that can fit in parking lots. 

As the former Commanding Officer of a US Navy submarine, Grayson shares keen insights into mission-critical energy, having been responsible for, essentially, a "submerged nuclear reactor" in which even small mistakes can lead to fatalities.

Among the key takeaways of Cool Vector's conversation with Tony Grayson:

• Modular data centers are set to dominate deployment timelines. Grayson argues that modular deployments are becoming essential as compute demand from AI workloads outpaces hyperscale construction timelines. Instead of multi-year builds, modular units can be deployed in “three to six months,” making them critical for real-time AI inference such as fraud detection and language translation. “What modular data centers give you is a very, very quick time in the market at a very good cost on something that’s easily upgradeable,” says Grayson.

• Distributed compute is replacing "bigger is better" economics. Scale for its own sake is no longer aligned with technology or economics. Customers want smaller, controllable AI environments—sometimes literally “in the parking lot”— rather than massive centralized builds. “It’s not a how big can you build? It’s how can you build a hundred thousand of these things just for one platform and place them all around the world?” says Grayson.

• Nuclear power may lose admirers after overpromises. While nuclear power is again being floated as a solution for energy-hungry data centers, Grayson—drawing on his background as a submarine commander—warned of overpromising. He noted that advanced reactor projects face long regulatory and technical hurdles, predicting a backlash if expectations are not met. “I am worried that nuclear is gonna get a bad name when all these Gen 4s who promised delivery in a couple years never happen,” he says.

• Decomposable infrastructure will displace GPUs. Grayson highighted the looming shift from GPU-dominated architectures to decomposable infrastructure and custom ASICs, which can outperform GPUs at lower cost. This evolution will fundamentally reshape facility design and economics over the next five years. “You are getting AI right now, which is agentic machine to machine stuff," says Grayson. "In a couple years, they’re gonna have decomposable infrastructure where basically you’re separating your CPU, your memory, your storage with optical, and then we’re gonna build a data center for that,” says Grayson

• Europe enforces sustainability as U.S. lags behind. Sustainability remains a patchy priority, with European regulators pushing strict standards while U.S. operators often give it “lip service.” Time-to-market and ROI remain dominant drivers, even if climate goals are compromised. “I think Europe is super sustainable. In the US, it’s more lip service than anything else right now,” says Grayson.

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Two of the world's biggest digital infrastructure investors - EQT and DigitalBridge - are bullish about fiber networks, and tell Cool Vector why.

The long-term bet on fiber began in 2019, when EQT and DigitalBridge jointly took Zayo private in a $14 billion transaction. In March 2025, the group announced another wave of investment - Zayo's acquisition of Crown Castle's fiber solutions business for $4.25 billion, and EQT Active Core Infrastructure's acquisition of the Crown Castle small-cells business for $4.25 billion.

In a recent interview, Cool Vector's David Snow and Phillip Koblence caught up with  Arnav Mitra, Managing Director of EQT, Jonathan Friesel, Senior Managing Director of DigitalBridge, and Bill Long, Chief Product and Strategy Officer, of Zayo, to learn about the bright future of fiber optic networks. 

 "Connectivity is increasing, bandwidth needs are increasing," says Jonathan Friesel of DigitalBridge. "There was a study a bunch of years ago where they talked about the hierarchy of needs, and broadband connectivity came out ahead of water, which literally means that people would rather die than lose their broadband connection."

Among the key takeaways of this fascinating conversation: 

AI is creating a step-function in bandwidth, giving fiber investors a “free option” on outsized growth. "The way that this deal came together was, it was a good asset at the right price with a gargantuan upside option value," says Bill Long of Zayo. 

For hyperscalers and edge expansion, fiber has become as decisive as power in site selection and network strategy. "Fiber is certainly just as critical to the data center ecosystem as power is," says Arnav Mitra of EQT. 

Zayo’s take-private unlocked the multi-year investments needed to integrate 47 acquisitions and deliver a single, coherent platform. "Being a private company, being able to make those long-term value creation bets, is a better instrument than waking up every quarter to have the public markets judging you," says Long.

Physics favors fiber for moving massive data volumes—making in-ground fiber a long-lived, compounding asset. "Being able to constrain a wave in a piece of fiber is always going to be several orders of magnitude more efficient for conveying large amounts of data relative to broadcasting it over an open medium like the air," says Long.

Clear signs of market froth include speculative builds and financing deals that effectively give away future monetization. "Anytime you're doing long-term IRUs of your assets, and you have no further opportunity to monetize them, that feels more like an asset sale or a capital infusion," says Mitra.

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The moment its construction begins, a new data center becomes an old data center, given how fast technology and use-cases are evolving. Retrofitting an existing data center is the only way to save it from obsolescence. But retrofits are more difficult than you might imagine, a panel of experts tell Cool Vector.

This episode of Cool Vector includes Bo Bond, Vice Chair of Cushman & Wakefield, Brian Jabeck, VP Business Development at Bennett & Pless, Phillip Koblence of NYI, Critical Ventures, UIA and Nomad Futurist, and Nabeel Mahmood an industry Top 10 Influencer, CXO and co-founder of Nomad Futurist. 

Among the key takeaways of the conversation:

• Data center retrofits will remain a moving target as technology advances. The types of workloads data centers must support are evolving too quickly for any one design to remain optimal for long. “The beauty is that technology and innovation, which drives our industry, will always cause change," says Cushman & Wakefield's Bond. "Can we take something that was built before, improve it so it serves something today or for the future, or does it cost more and save us more on time to be able to come out of the ground new? And I think that cycle’s always gonna turn."

• The data-center retrofit queue is growing. Rising rack densities and global power shortages mean more operators are upgrading existing facilities to meet AI and high-performance computing needs. "There is a significant amount of data center and compute space that's available in the market space that needs to be retrofitted to meet the existing compute demands," says Mahmood. 

• Even new data centers can become obsolete almost immediately. Technological shifts, such as liquid-to-chip cooling, are forcing operators to modify facilities that are only a year or two old. The decision between retrofitting and rebuilding often comes down to rapid tech obsolescence—not the building’s age. "You've got one- to two-year-old buildings that are drilling holes and making penetrations to run a bunch of liquid lines that they didn't plan on," says Jabeck.

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About Cool Vector's editorial advisors:

Phillip Koblence is a strategic executive and thought leader in the data center and interconnection space. He co-founded NYI in 1996 and has successfully evolved the company from a Web design and hosting provider to a facilitator of robust digital infrastructure and connectivity solutions with executional capabilities in key national and international markets. He also serves as CEO of Critical Ventures, and Managing Director at United Integrity Advisors, agencies that provide multi-disciplinary consulting services to a broad range of real estate and digital infrastructure firms. Phillip is Co-Founder of the non-profit Nomad Futurist Foundation and Podcast, designed to demystify the world of critical infrastructure and inspire younger generations to join the industry.

Nabeel Mahmood is a globally recognized futurist, technology executive, and board member guiding innovation across the intersecting worlds of AI, quantum computing, data infrastructure and automation. With decades of experience shaping digital transformation strategies, Nabeel serves on multiple boards of publicly traded and privately held companies, where he influences decision-making at the highest levels. As the co-founder of the Nomad Futurist Foundation, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit, he’s leading an international movement to democratize access to education and careers in digital infrastructure, particularly for underserved and underrepresented communities. A top 10 global influencer, Nabeel is known for his bold perspectives, thought leadership, and ability to connect complex technology trends to their real-world human and environmental impact. He delivers keynotes around the world that challenge industry norms and push for a more equitable, inclusive, and sustainable future.

Despite its relatively small size, Ireland is a heavyweight among global data center hubs. But that advantaged position has been thrown into doubt amid political gridlock. 

In this episode of Cool Vector, four Irish data center veterans explain why Ireland's continued leadership in data infrastructure will require close cooperation between government and industry, as well as awareness among the general public that, despite energy challenges, data management is among the nation's most important growth industries. 

The fascinating conversation includes  Christopher Brown, Partner, Global Strategy Group KPMG in Ireland, Garry Connolly, Founder, Digital Infrastructure Ireland, Eugene Finn, Managing Director at CAPCON, and Gary Watson, Country Manager and Director, Keppel DC REIT in Ireland.

Among the topics discussed in this fascinating, and sometimes funny, conversation:

Ireland’s impressive legacy in data infrastructure is now under pressure. Ireland has spent 50 years building itself into a digital infrastructure powerhouse—but its success is now straining its outdated utilities and policymaking frameworks. “We arrived at 2025 with all the leading hyperscaler companies of today,” says Connolly. “We were built on data. The reason we fight is for the data. The centers are just the 'what.' The data is the 'why' for Ireland.”

Irish government gridlock risks undermining economic opportunity. While the global demand for Irish-based compute remains strong, a lack of long-term infrastructure planning is pushing projects—and capital—elsewhere, and the country's policymakers are too often focused on short-term electoral victories. “Sometimes you feel that things have fallen on deaf ears,” says Watson. “A lot of investment is being driven out of Ireland right now to where it's easier to do business.”

Irish digital infrastructure talent is everywhere in the world where there are data centers. Even if projects leave Ireland, Irish engineering, construction, and design expertise is now powering data center growth across Europe and beyond. “The Irish who have built Intel, built Digital Equipment Corporation, are not sitting around waiting for Ireland Inc. to get itself together," says Connolly. "And they're following these projects because they have the trust, they have the skills.”

Ireland's real constraint Is grid process, not clean energy supply. Ireland has ample renewable energy potential, but limited grid storage and planning capabilities are blocking growth; the challenge is no longer generation, but regulation. “More renewable power without storage capabilities doesn't necessarily solve the problem,” says Brown. “Ireland has arguably gone into the realm of scaling renewable generation ahead of the grid's ability to meaningfully store it longer than a few seconds.”

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The future of the data center industry is being shaped by a use-case pivot among crypto miners, as well as by energy innovations within the crypto industry that make compute more efficient, say two Macquarie Group analysts. 

In an interview with Cool Vector, Macquarie senior equities analyst Paul Golding and Charles Yonts, Head of Sustainability Research for Asia at Macquarie, describe the recent evolution of major crypto mining players like CoreWeave, Galaxy Digital, Applied Digital and Core Scientific, and speak on the history of how these companies evolved into data center industry players. 

The conversation is particularly relevant in light of the recently announced acquisition of Core Scientific by CoreWeave.

Based in Asia, Yonts also describes the importance of the region’s supply chain and how the data center industry there is positioned to grow quickly, thanks in part to practices developed by crypto miners. 

Other important trends discussed by Yonts and Golding: 

Crypto’s shift to AI data infrastructure is driving a new phase of growth. Crypto mining firms are leveraging their existing power-intensive sites to serve high-performance computing (HPC) demand—especially AI workloads—which has revitalized gross margins and unlocked new business models.

The crypto industry was a forerunner in renewable energy and grid flexibility. Bitcoin miners pioneered partnerships with remote and stranded renewable power sources and embraced demand response—offering a blueprint for energy-conscious data center expansion in the AI era. “Bitcoin mining data centers can partner with stranded power renewables that have not had an interconnect set up yet... and be an off-take partner to these relatively remote facilities generating power," says Golding.

Latency-agnostic crypto operations enabled early adoption of remote clean energy. Because crypto workloads are less sensitive to latency than traditional cloud services, crypto companies have long located in rural, power-abundant regions—setting an early example for sustainable AI infrastructure,  if this latency can be overcome with advances in fiber and networking technology. “The lack of sensitivity to latency has enabled them to have access to very cheap renewables, which is absolutely crucial," says Yonts.

In the new data center race, time to power is the ultimate advantage. As AI demand surges, developers and hyperscalers prioritize how fast energy can be delivered to a site—outpacing concerns over cost or carbon intensity—making speed the defining competitive edge. “Today, it's time to power, time to power, and time to power," Yonts adds.

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Macquarie provided the following company disclosures as of July 17, 2025:

Core Scientific (CORZ US) - Macquarie Group Limited together with its affiliates owns a net long of 0.5% or more of the equity securities of Core Scientific Inc.

CoreWeave (CRWV US) - Macquarie managed or co-managed a public offering of securities of CoreWeave Inc in the past 12 months, for which it received compensation.

Power constraints in major European data center hubs is driving investment to second-tier markets like Berlin, Madrid and Manchester, says Zahl Limbuwala, Operating Partner at Germany-based investment firm DTCP. 

In a Cool Vector interview, Limbuwala explains the evolved landscape for data center investing across Europe, and stresses that knowledge of individual market regulations is critical for success. 

Among Limbuwala's key takeaways:

• Europe's fragmented markets are driving investors toward tier-two data center locations. With tier-one hubs like Frankfurt, London, Amsterdam, Paris, and Dublin increasingly constrained by power distribution challenges and growing residential encroachment, DTCP sees opportunity in secondary cities such as Berlin, Madrid, and Manchester. "The emergence of Berlin is predominantly a way of getting access to power," says Limbuwala.

• Large-scale campus developments offer long-term alignment with Europe's renewable energy transition. DTCP’s recently launched GreenScale investment platform  targets sites where massive data center campuses can integrate directly with renewable power sources, creating stable baseload demand while supporting national decarbonization goals. Limbuwala notes: "The larger data center campus developments - 200 megawatt plus and beyond - represent an opportunity to work with the grid providers, work with the renewable investors and developers, and really put together a cohesive proposition story."

• DTCP focuses on scaling companies that have secured permits, land, and power, but need capital and expertise to expand. Rather than speculative builds, DTCP invests in businesses with early momentum that can benefit from the firm’s operational, regulatory, and financial capabilities across Europe. "We are looking for businesses that are established but have not yet scaled. we're looking for businesses led by a management team, at least a core management team that has a strong track record."

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