Cool Vector

How will the tariff imbroglio impact data center development in the US, which relies heavily on imported components? Cool Vector convened a panel of experts, including the CFO of a major data center company, to compare notes on supply chain disruptions, critical equipment and what happens to compute demand in economic downturns.

This episode of Cool Vector Hot Takes features a lively conversation between John Wilson, CFO of ⁠Sabey Data Centers⁠, Philbert Shih, Founder of ⁠Structure Research⁠, Nabeel Mahmood of ⁠Nomad Futurist Foundation⁠, and Phillip Koblence of Critical Ventures and ⁠Nomad Futurist.⁠ 

Among the key takeaways of the data center supply chain conversation:

• Uninterruptible Power Supply (UPS) systems and edge data centers (EDCs) are among the most critical components manufactured outside the US that are worrying data center operators. In addition, says says John Wilson of Sabey Data Centers, “If I think up and down the supply chain, it’s the transformers, it’s the GPUs and the CPUs that I would put right at the top of that criticality list."

• The power grid could become the most worrisome bottleneck in the data center supply chain. “Electricity production, and the impact that has on our ability to service the demand, is incredibly complex,” says Wilson.

• The global nature of the data center supply chain can create “cascading” delays from even small disruptions. “If the customer doesn’t have chips, doesn’t have servers, doesn’t have cables, they’re not going to be able to set up their infrastructure,” warned Philbert Shih of Structure Research.

• Multi-tenant data centers may have greater pricing flexibility to pass along cost increases—compared to single-tenant hyperscale facilities — because they operate with shorter contract durations and serve a diversified customer base with varying margin sensitivities and renewal cycles, notes Phillip Koblence.

• New data center development may accelerate outside of the US as operators hedge against geopolitical and supply chain volatility. “We’re seeing a massive boom in the Middle East, in Africa, in Australasia. We’ve got to understand that the days of just focusing on North America or Europe are gone,” says Nabeel Mahmood.

• Even enormous budgets can’t override the need for planning, patience, and trusted vendors.

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The private equity firm that created ⁠Digital Realty ⁠sees a "wealth of opportunities" in digital infrastructure, but avoids hyperscaler mega-projects, says Mark Prybutok, a Managing Director at ⁠GI Partners⁠ and Head of the Data Infrastructure strategy.

In 2001, GI Partners made its very first investment as a firm in a portfolio of distressed data centers reeling from the dotcom crash. In 2004, that portfolio was listed publicy as Digital Realty, now the world's largest data-center REIT. 

Today, GI Partners has $45 billion in assets under management, and oversees three strategies: private equity, real estate and digital infrastructure. In a wide-ranging interview with Cool Vector, Prybutok shares his excitement about investing in a rapidly expanding market, but offers guidance to investors about nuanced differences between business models, locations and commercial strategies. 

Prybutok also describes GI Partners' strategy in digital infrastructure as being more akin to private equity, with a focus on operating businesses, management teams and value-add strategies. 

Among the key takeaways from the interview: 

Digital infrastructure deserves a substantial allocation in the portfolio. As digital giants drive global economic growth, Prybutok argues digital infrastructure should potentially command a larger allocation in institutional portfolios than the modest levels seen today: “If you think about infrastructure as the physical underpinnings of the economy… why shouldn’t it be significantly higher than 20%, 25%?” 

Success in digital infrastructure requires sector nuance. With growing competition from generalist investors, GI Partners differentiates itself through deep sectoral focus and an ability to identify winners in niche sub-markets: “We’re identifying businesses that we in particular think are going to be the winners within a sub-sector of a sub-sector.”

Edge infrastructure is a bigger opportunity than centralized mega-infrastructure. While hyperscaler campuses get headlines, GI sees greater long-term opportunity in edge infrastructure tailored to mid-sized businesses and real-world IT needs: “There’s a massive opportunity, multiples larger in aggregate, than these massive concentrated AI training data centers, but located closer to those end use points.”

Digital infrastructure should be tech-enhancing, not tech-exposed. GI Partners focuses on durable physical infrastructure, steering clear of reliance on rapidly evolving technologies that risk obsolescence: “You want to make sure you’re not getting stuck investing in a generation of technology that is then made obsolete by improvements that happen in the next generation.”

AI and IoT are fueling an urgent need for more infrastructure. From video surveillance to industrial automation, AI’s real-world applications are just beginning, creating vast demand for data centers and networks: “We see real-world examples… where the number of people reviewing and responding to alerts is going down exponentially as the AI improves.”

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The launch of a new data center 'pod' business is being met with surging customer demand, highlighting the need for edge digital infrastructure in remote areas, according to the leadership of Duos Edge AI. 

In an extensive interview with Cool Vector,  Doug Recker, President of Duos Edge AI, and Adrian Goldfarb, CFO of parent company Duos Technologies Group, describe how edge data centers offer an affordable, scalable solution to bring low-latency connectivity to remote regions underserved by traditional infrastructure. “When we drop one of our pods, you’re right around a million dollars," says Recker. "So you can justify the expense and the revenue by deploying these, and the savings to the customer out there justifies the [co-location]."

Other key takeaways from the Duos Edge AI interview on Cool Vector:

Edge pods serve diverse and growing demand—from remote school districts to ranchers using drones and AI—accelerating a trend of localized cloud computing. “They’re now going to drones and AI to manage their cattle," says Recker, of cattle ranchers in remote parts of Texas. "Well, they can’t do all this data and AI without having compute on site.”

Compared to traditional data centers that can take years to build, Duos Edge AI delivers a fully operational edge pod in less than four months.

With revenue potential of up to $400,000 per year, and rapid deployment costs of around $1 million, edge pods deliver attractive ROI within four years. “The expected revenue from that is somewhere between $300,000 and $400,000 per year, which means the return on it is anywhere between two and a half and four years," says Goldfarb.

The explosion of data demand—especially in remote healthcare and education—has transformed edge data centers from speculative infrastructure to essential utility. "The need is there," says Recker. "We’re not trying to invent a product. Now we’re trying to fix a need, which is always better to be on that side.”

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Interest in ETA careers is rising "exponentially" among MBA candidates at what is widely regarded as the intellectual birthplace of Entrepreneurship-Through-Acquisition, according to three leaders of the Stanford Graduate School of Business' ETA club.

In a joint interview with Search Party, president Michelle Nguyen and vice presidents Ruby Au and Laura Kiehl share details of the club's mission to prepare students for the rigors of ETA search, in which post-MBA entrepreneurs, backed by investors, have two years to find and acquire a high-quality, lower-middle-market business, and, if successful, take the reins as CEO. 

According to Au, ETA increasingly is viewed as a "risk-adjusted way to do a startup," appealing to ambitious operators who want ownership without starting from scratch. "If you really want to run something and have your own piece of something, then search fund starts to make a lot of sense," she says. 

Nguyen, Au and Kiehl also share details of their own professional backgrounds and what led them to become ETA-curious. 

Important takeaways from the conversation:

ETA searchers are backed more like athletes choosing coaches than founders pitching VCs—fit and mentorship matter as much as capital. 

While ETA offers autonomy and potential reward, its journey is uncertain and emotionally demanding, requiring grit, adaptability, and community support. "Search could be very lonely, could be very stressful. It takes determination as well as a very can-do attitude to go through the search process," says Nguyen.

The Stanford ETA Club has become a hub for investor access and student exploration, offering a blend of networking, mentorship, and tailored coursework. "We are kind of like the orchestrator, trying to select based on experience, knowledge, know-how, and just kind of value to the students, but also to the investors," says Kiehl.

Stanford GSB's faculty have published some of the most influential studies in the search fund space, including the Search Fund Primer and Search Fund Study, which have become essential reading for aspiring searchers and investors who back searchers. These materials helped define the model, demystify the process, and give institutional legitimacy to what was once a niche strategy.

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How is it that Denmark, with a population of 6 million, has become a major nexus for sustainable data centers? Cool Vector convened a lively, in-depth conversation with CEOs from Digital Realty, atNorth and Danish Datacenter Industrien to learn the country's formula for public-private collaboration and digital infrastructure success. 

Joining the conversation are Pernille Hoffmann, CEO of Digital Realty (Denmark & Nordics), Magnus Kristinsson, CEO of atNorth and Henrik Hansen, CEO of industry advocate Danish Datacenter Industrien. 

Some key takeaways from the episode:

Denmark’s proximity to major European markets and multiple subsea cables make it an ideal hub for digital infrastructure. “Denmark is the region that has the closest proximity to central Europe, and is only a few milliseconds from London, Amsterdam, Frankfurt, Paris," says Kristinsson.

Denmark is pushing toward 100% renewable energy, including green biogas and innovative backup solutions, positioning its data centers at the forefront of sustainability. “Adding to wind and solar, we're also very big on green biogas. And this means that in our gas pipeline, close to 50% is actually green biogas. And by 2030, we expect to be close to 100%," says Hansen.

Danish enterprises expect their data center providers to deliver 100% renewable energy, making sustainability a competitive requirement. “The Danish enterprises' awareness around sustainability—it's a significant criteria in their decision-making process. It's not just an ask, it's kind of a demand that we supply 100% renewable energy in our data centers," says Hoffmann.

The presence of major hyperscalers has accelerated Denmark’s data center market, attracting global investment and creating a skilled workforce. As Hansen explains, “Ten years ago, we didn't have any data center capacity. The hyperscalers have accelerated the development because of the size of the investments they have made, and also because all of them basically decided to build in Denmark. It was a good signal to the surrounding world that this is an attractive market."

Denmark fosters digital infrastructure growth not through tax incentives, but by integrating industry into the country’s ambitious sustainability goals. Says Hansen: "The incentive is more really becoming part of this ambitious goal that we have for Denmark in general—about very ambitious emission targets, climate targets by 2030, reducing by 70%, which is above the normal targets in other countries and in the EU. We try to lift the bar of what is achievable."

Denmark is the site of pioneering circular energy use, with data center waste heat being repurposed for homes and novel projects like year-round tomato farming. "We have a contract with a company called WA3RM that is planning to reuse waste heat from the site to grow tomatoes. Not only does the heat not go wasted, but it reduces the carbon footprint of tomatoes grown in Denmark, since most of them are imported from more southern parts of Europe," says Krisinsson.

Denmark’s approach to sustainable digital infrastructure relies on collaboration, innovation, and ambitious climate targets—offering a model for other countries. “You have to bring a lot of different parties into the same room and decide on a strategy. You have to bring in various knowledge from different sectors because these things are going so fast now. We need other types of partnerships, other types of regulations, if we are going to do this AI and digital journey without killing our climate," says Hansen.

Data center investment strategies that focus on ground-up development in unconventional locations are more complex, and therefore more likely to generate stronger returns, says Mark McComiskey, a partner at AVAIO Capital.

In an extensive conversation with Cool Vector, McComiskey explains that many private capital firms active in digital infrastructure invest in existing assets, or compete for sites in overheated hubs like Northern Virginia. By contrast, AVAIO is simultaneously developing six sites in less competitive markets, positioning itself as data center provider of choice to large customers.

“The best returns come from building infrastructure where it doesn’t already exist,” McComiskey says. “We’re taking on complexity—power procurement, entitlement, permitting—but that’s where the opportunity lies.”

AVAIO’s approach involves incremental risk management—deploying capital only as sites pass key milestones. This method ensures projects are fully de-risked before significant investment, reducing exposure to cost overruns or regulatory hurdles, he says. 

At present, AVAIO is bringing to market a diverse portfolio of sites. “Instead of pitching one-off locations, we’re offering AI-focused campuses, cloud deployments, and hyperscaler-ready sites across North America and Europe,” says McComiskey.

For decades, data centers have clustered in a handful of hubs in the US, but AVAIO anticipated grid congestion, and decided to look elsewhere. “In Santa Clara, new power access could take a decade,” McComiskey says. “We secured 100 megawatts of power just 30 minutes outside the city—that’s the kind of forward-thinking strategy this market demands.”

The continued high demand for data center capacity is influencing negotiating dynamics between providers and customers. Customers in need of cloud and AI compute are willing to pay premiums for sites that can deliver in the next 24 to 36 months. “If you can build in 2025 or 2026, you have leverage,” says McComiskey. “If you’re offering capacity in 2030, the power shifts back to the customer.”

With billions pouring into AI-driven infrastructure, some market observers worry the sector is overheating. McComiskey acknowledges signs of speculation—like developers stockpiling electrical components without confirmed projects—but argues that irrational exuberance is still under control. “No one’s building speculative capacity without customers lined up,” he says. “Unlike real estate bubbles, where demand can disappear overnight, AI and cloud computing growth isn’t slowing down anytime soon.”

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This episode of Cool Vector Hot Takes tackles four hot topics in the global digital infrastructure market: 1) Has Microsoft been oversupplied data centers? 2) Inside the plan for Southeast Asia’s largest data center 3) Real estate investor love for data centers keeps rising 4) Blackstone’s low-carbon power move in Virginia’s data center alley.

This round, the Cool Vector editorial team of David Snow, Phillip Koblence and Nabeel Mahmood is joined by Obinna Isiadinso, Global Sector Lead for Data Centers at the International Finance Corporation (IFC), a division of the World Bank. 

In a lively exchange, our CVHT panelists respond to a recent report from TD Cowen that Microsoft has cancelled data center leases in the US worth two hundred megawatts, and that the company is reallocating international data center investment back to the US. Koblence, Mahmood and Isiadinso agree that despite some scaling back, Microsoft remains committed to significant infrastructure investment, signaling confidence in long-term demand. They also touch on how hyperscalers must adjust their very large plans in real time, and why these shifts should be seen as strategic recalibrations rather than signs of evaporating demand.

The discussion turns to the rapid expansion of digital infrastructure in Southeast Asia, with a $900 million investment in a Johor, Malaysia, data center mega-project led by Yondr Group. The deal includes significant financing from Isiadinso’s IFC. He explains the importance of the pre-contract financing provided to Yondr, and the panel discusses the compelling demand profile of Southeast Asia, still in the very early stages of building out digital infrastructure sufficient to meet an expected explosion in regional growth.

The conversation then shifts to the growing interest in data centers from real estate investors. A recent KPMG survey reveals 40% of investors now see data centers as the most attractive asset class, up from 27% last year. The experts discuss what’s driving this rising enthusiasm, how data centers straddle the asset classes of real estate and infrastructure, and how these assets increasingly are seen as long-term and recession-resistant.

Finally, the panel examines Blackstone’s $1 billion investment in a hydrogen-ready power plant in Northern Virginia, the “Data Center Alley” that processes roughly one fourth of America’s compute. Blackstone, they agree, is being very strategic positioning itself as a provider of low-carbon energy to the most important data center hub in the world. The experts note that Blackstone now has key investments across the data center value chain, in energy, construction and data centers themselves.

Watch the full episode on Cool Vector’s YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/@CoolVector

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Infranity's ambitions to become a global player in the infrastructure debt market have advanced with the establishment of a US office. Cool Vector caught up with two Infranity partners to learn about the sustainable lending opportunity in North America, the risk-reward profile of co-location data centers and the limits of the energy transition. 

Infranity, based in Paris, launched seven years ago in partnership with Italian insurer and asset manager Generali. The firm has a mandate to lend to the expanding infrastructure market in a way that supports sutainability goals, says Sacha Kamp, Investment Managing Director and Head of Investment Debt. Infranity's backers want to see their capital "creating positive change."

Paul Colatrella, Managing Director and Head of North American Debt, explains that while the focus on sustainability is more pronounced among European investors, his recent meetings with North American investors reveal a "material segment in the US and Canada" that integrate sustainability goals into overall investment objectives. 

In the interview, Colatrella and Kamp also discuss the firm's digital infrastructure deal flow, led by co-location data center opportunities, fiber, and small-cell investments. The firm is seeing good opportunities in tier two and tier three markets in North America. Infranity is focused on co-location opportunities in part because these assets have more diversified customer bases, and their more complex business models require more careful due diligence. Infranity looks to invest between $100 million and $200 million per transaction. 

While not every emerging low-carbon power technology has led to a viable business model, Colatrella and Kamp say the rising demand for power is producing lending opportunities across the energy transition landscape. "The massive scale of not just building the data centers but the energy need behind them is I think something that might shock really shock a lot of Americans," notes Colatrella. "We're talking about replacing and expanding a very large percentage of our electrical grid

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A shortage of construction workers with skills specific to data centers is hindering the growth of digital infrastructure, says Amazon Web Service's former Worldwide Head of Engineering, Construction and Real Estate.

In a wide-ranging Cool Vector interview, Sandra Benson, now Vice President of Industry Transformation at Procore Technologies, says of the global race to construct data centers: “ We literally can't build fast enough. The biggest reason we can't is we don't have the labor to build fast enough. And even if we had the bodies, there's also skill development” necessary. 

The proliferation of data center projects around the world has contributed to the demand for skilled labor, which has led to a rise in compensation. “You can go to a trade school, come out and the kind of salary in general that you can command now versus even five or 10 years ago is exponentially different,” says Benson. 

In her Cool Vector interview, Benson discusses her professional background as a woman in a male-dominated industry, as well as the public relations issue faced by construction. “ I think it’s a great industry, but we have a perception problem,” says Benson. “I've said this for almost 30 years. People think of construction as very backwards, right? That it’s not very digital. And that is absolutely not true.”

Benson also shares insights into skills necessary for success in data center construction, including installation skills as well as contracting projects with full commissioning, meaning the mandate to make the many components of a data center site work together, although these may be overseen by different contractors. 

Benson also discusses the challenge of integrating sustainability goals into data center construction projects in the midst of a labor shortage, as well as the sense of excitement among construction executives for their growing backlogs of projects.

In his 35 years in the power business, ⁠EnCap Investment⁠'s James Hughes has never seen a market as "strange" as the current one, driven by data center inelastic demand as well as industrial projects across the US. 

Hughes is a Managing Partner and head of the EnCap's energy transition business, which last May raised a $1.5 billion fund to invest in power, low-carbon fuels and carbon management. In a wide-ranging interview with Cool Vector, Hughes says hyperscaler demand for data centers has created an attractive supply-demand dynamic for his strategy. "I've never seen a large class of customer, a large set of demand, that is price inelastic," he says. 

Hughes predicts a five- to seven-year window during which he is confident "we will be able to take capital and earn a return that is a premium return on that capital."

Hughes shares his analysis of the the "Republican trifecta" in Washington and its likely impact on his strategy. While the removal of incentives for low-carbon fuels and carbon management companies may challenge those business models, Hughes says any changes to the Biden-administration Inflation Reduction Act will have little impact EnCap's opportunities in power generation. 

"If I can execute a power project, there is somebody that's going to buy that power under a long term fixed price agreement," says Hughes. "The challenge is not identifying a customer for the power. The challenge is, okay, can I find a site and get control of that site? Can I gain access to the grid?"

Formed in 1988, EnCap is one of the largest energy-focused private equity firms in the world. Hughes says his team has the experience to recognize opportunities in a rapidly changing market. "What we bring to the table is gray hair, and having done this for a very long time and having lived through several cycles," he says. 

Hughes shares is views on the prospects for renewable energy in digital infrastructure, noting the huge interest in using "clean, green" power, offset by an urgency to get projects built using whatever energy sources are available, led by oil and gas. 

He gives his take on an oft-repeated question in today's digital infrastructure and energy market: Are we in a bubble? Hughes predicts efficiencies in the next generation of GPUs, but says he doesn't see any trend that will reverse excess power demand in the coming years.

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