On 14 December 2025, Australia experienced its worst mass casualty terrorist attack (and the second worst mass casualty shooting) in its history, when a father and son, inspired by the Islamic State terrorist group, attacked Hanukkah celebrations at Sydney’s iconic Bondi Beach. Fifteen people were murdered that day and another forty wounded.

The Bondi attack exposed vulnerabilities in Australia’s national security apparatus that, for over two decades, had prioritised the prevention and countering of terrorist threats, absorbing enormous amounts of focus, personnel and resources. Yet, at the end of all of that, Australia experienced its worst terrorist attack.

In a country as safe and stable as Australia, its citizens have every right to hold its law enforcement and national security agencies to the highest standards. That there were failures is a given. Why, how, and who are responsible continues to be investigated.

There are broader questions too about the evolution of the Islamic State threat in Australia, how the Bondi attack fits into that picture, and the potential impact of the Bondi attack as a source of inspiration for future attacks.

Today, Dr. Levi West will unpack all of this and more for CounterCheck. A leading counterterrorism expert and the foremost scholar on the evolution of terrorist threats in Australia, Dr. West is a research fellow at the Australian National University where his work is funded by Australia’s Office of National Intelligence through a National Intelligence and Security Discovery Research Grant.

His most recent article, co-authored with Dr. Andrew Zammit and published by the CTC Sentinel, is the most comprehensive analysis of the Bondi attack and its strategic implications to date.

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As the war in Iran has escalated over the last few weeks, a spate of attacks has targeted both American government buildings and Jewish communities across Europe.

On March 8th, an explosion struck the U.S. embassy in Oslo, leaving no casualties. Norwegian police later said they were investigating whether the attack was carried out on behalf of a foreign government.

The next day, on March 9th, an explosion hit a synagogue in the city of Liege in Belgium, causing significant damage to the temple and surrounding buildings. The Belgian government has since deployed soldiers to reinforce security at Jewish sites across the country.

Later that week, on March 13th, a synagogue in the Dutch city of Rotterdam was also targeted in an arson attack. The following day, an explosion targeted a Jewish school in Amsterdam, and is being investigated by Dutch authorities for possible Iranian involvement.

And, just a few days ago on March 23rd, four ambulances belonging to a Jewish community charity in London were set on fire in another arson attack. British counter-terrorism police are reportedly leading the investigation. This followed news that two Iranian men were arrested and charged in the UK with alleged surveillance of Jewish targets on behalf of Iran.

A new group calling itself Harakat Ashab al-Yamin al-Islamia, or The Islamic Movement of the Companions of the Righteous, has since claimed responsibility for these attacks. The group’s social media activity is reportedly directed through channels linked to militia groups aligned with Iran and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the IRGC. However, it is still unclear what formal connections this group has, if any, to Iran and its proxies.

What is clear is that further escalation in the Iran war is likely to produce more plots and violence in coming days and weeks, with local communities paying the price.

We spoke to former US counterterrorism official Michael Jacobson about how the United States led global efforts to counter precisely these types of terrorist threats for years. Mike oversaw the international coordination and planning wing of the U.S. Department of State’s Counterterrorism Bureau until 2025. Since then, the Trump administration has withdrawn the United States from several international counterterrorism organizations earlier this year. We spoke with Mike about the impacts of this decision, and how the United States went from a position of global counterterrorism leadership, to a position of leadership in decline.

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On 28 February 2026, the United States and Israel launched coordinated military strikes on the Islamic Republic of Iran. In Operation Epic Fury’s first 72hours, United States Central Command reported that over 1,700 targets had been struck in the most significant US military operation in the Middle East since the Iraq war.

As the war enters its fourth week, it is clear that Iran’s military capabilities have been significantly weakened, and many of Iran’s most senior military, intelligence and security leaders – including Iran’s Supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei – have been killed. Yet, so far, there have been no major defections from either Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (the IRGC) or from Iran’s Army (known as the Artesh). Iran’s missile and drone attacks across the region have also continued and its proxies, such as Hezbollah in Lebanon, may increasingly attempt to mobilise in Iran’s defence.

It is too early for predictions that Iran’s theocratic regime is on the verge of surrender. Instead, let’s pause and look back at the history of US-Iran relations. That context is important for not only understanding how we got to this point but it’s also useful for thinking about how things may play out in the coming weeks and months.

The history of US-Iran relations since World War II is extraordinarily complex and tumultuous. But there are events that, in important practical and symbolic ways, capture the broad trendlines that have characterised different phases in that relationship. So, here are four milestones in the history of US-Iran Relations that can help us to better understand the present.

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America’s top national security officials just testified about the state of global threats to the United States. We spoke with Mike Jacobson, who spent over two decades working across the U.S. government in various counterterrorism (CT) roles, on his experiences and the latest insights into American counterterrorism. Mike warned us about the potential impacts of Trump administration decisions to withdraw from several international CT organizations that the U.S. previously led, and an overall stepping back from leading the global CT community. Watch this extended conversation and other recent episodes on CT threats to learn more.

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For much of the quarter century since al-Qaida’s attacks on New York and Washington DC on September 11, 2001, counterterrorism has been the top national security and foreign policy priority for the United States. US leadership has been central to global efforts to confront terrorist threats, but, like so many aspects of US domestic and foreign policy, that has changed under the second Trump administration.

We sat down with Michael Jacobson - senior fellow in The Washington Institute for Near East Policy’s Jeanette and Eli Reinhard Program on Counterterrorism and Intelligence. Mike’s professional career has been almost entirely spent working in counterterrorism roles for the US government, including in the US State Department’s Counterterrorism Bureau from 2010-2025, the US Treasury Department’s office of Terrorism and Financial Intelligence, the 9-11 Commission, and in the FBI.

Under the second Trump administration, the United States has fundamentally transformed how it engages with the world. On counterterrorism, where the United States has traditionally adopted a central leadership role globally for well-over two decades, that is changing too.

Here we talk to Mike Jacobson about the pivot in US policy that has probably received less attention but it’s a policy area with major implications for global security and stability.

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This episode covers our extended conversation with Dr. Devorah Margolin, senior fellow at The Washington Institute for Near East Policy. You’ll hear about her on-the-ground experiences in the region and insights from her many years working on the ISIS detention facilities crisis.

Just before the US and Israel launched initial strikes against Iran, developments in northern Syria concerning the ISIS detention facilities had gone from bad to worse. Thousands are now missing following the emptying of Al-Hol camp, and the international community is now fully distracted by the escalating war across the region. Now, latest reporting is already starting to trace ISIS “emerging from the rubble” in Syria, adding a volatile factor into an already spiraling situation.

Read Dr. Margolin’s latest analysis with Dr. Joana Cook for Foreign Policy: From Bad to Worse in Northeast Syria, and for The Washington Institute: Caught in the Crossfire: Islamic State Detention Sites at Risk

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We sat down in early February with Dr. Devorah Margolin, senior fellow at The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, to discuss the latest developments in northern Syria as the situation in ISIS detention facilities has gone from bad to worse.

Thousands are now missing following the emptying of Al-Hol camp, and core questions about the international community’s response and willingness to repatriate their citizens remain unanswered.

We covered Dr. Margolin’s piece for The Washington Institute: Caught in the Crossfire: Islamic State Detention Sites at Risk

Read Dr. Margolin’s latest analysis with Dr. Joana Cook for Foreign Policy: From Bad to Worse in Northeast Syria

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Stay tuned for our full episode with Dr. Margolin and be sure to read her latest analysis:

From SNAFU to FUBAR in Northeast Syria

Caught in the Crossfire: Islamic State Detention Sites at Risk

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Leaders and experts fighting for communities on the frontlines of conflict and fragility. They bring authority and expertise, we test their ideas. 

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit roadbackmedia.substack.com