
Tom welcomes Craig Hemke of the TF Metals Report back to the show to discuss metals and bank involvement. Hemke talks about how certain entities are able to manipulate prices and make profits, and how the Commitment of Traders Report reveals these positions. He also discusses the possibility of another short squeeze and how this could impact prices. He then explains why the Commitment of Traders Report is not an ideal trading tool, and breaks down his strategy for making decisions regarding the metals market.



Craig then moves on to discuss the economy between the US and Japan, namely the Bank of Japan and the US Dollar. He talks about how the monetary policies of both countries are affecting global markets, and goes on to discuss how the dollar index is being affected. Craig explains why August is always a slow month for trading and speaks on the dangers of servicing the massive US's debt.



He also talks about the current and future situation with the Federal Reserve, noting that the jobs report in August could be underwhelming and other factors that will affect Jerome Powell's rate decisions. Craig then suggests that gold prices should start trending upwards in September and rally in October/November. Finally, he encourages patience and believes that the doldrums should end soon.



Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:30 - COT Reports & Trades5:44 - Bi-Manipulation13:45 - Summer Volume Signals16:53 - DXY Levels & Psychology20:49 - Dollar/Yen & BOJ25:52 - Fed, Debt & Deficits28:39 - Magnitude of Problems32:30 - Mortgage Rates & Lags36:50 - 70+ Year Mortgages38:10 - Silver Supply Deficits41:00 - Jobs Report & Numbers47:36 - Wrap Up



Talking Points From This Episode




* Craig explains how large entities manipulate the commodities market.



* His strategy of identifying large speculators positions can help predict price rallies.



* He suggests that gold prices will rally in October and November due to current positioning and COT reports.




Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/TFMetalsWebsite: https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/subscribe



Craig Hemke, aka "Turd Ferguson," was a licensed securities "professional" for nearly twenty years. Then, disgruntled by the fraud known as "financial services," he retired to a career as a serial entrepreneur in 2008. Though otherworldly in his ability to forecast price movements, Craig is not a soothsayer, a psychic, or a witch, but, after all these years, he has a decent understanding of the forces at play in the precious metal "markets."

Craig Hemke: The Economy is Clearly Now in Recession

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In this episode of Palisades, Tom Bodrovics welcomes back metals analyst David Jensen to discuss the volatile gold and silver markets, with a focus on the London market's reliance on promissory notes for trading and its potential physical supply issues leading to risks of default. They also touch upon the large trading volumes in London, deficits in the silver market, increasing demand from China, and concerns over retail investors influencing silver prices due to ETF manipulation and rehypothecation.



David shares his perspective on factors affecting the silver market during the 2020-2021 silver squeeze, including inventory disappearance in China, Shanghai exchange's influence, potential catalysts like central banks buying gold or conflicts, and the City of London's involvement in a longstanding global gold and silver fraud.



The conversation further explores the impact of various factors on gold and silver markets, including concerns about transparency regarding lease rates, central bank sourcing of metal, and potential consequences for major banks if they cannot cover contract losses. Overall, Jensen emphasizes the importance of understanding the significance of physical supply issues in the metals market and staying informed to avoid ignoring important matters.



Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:37 - Re-hypothecation & London7:17 - Bullion Banks & Physical13:20 - Paper Ponzi?15:08 - ETF Drawdowns & Supply17:23 - Jeff Currie Comments19:00 - Bullion & China Influence23:17 - News Driven Catalysts26:30 - Money Supply & Bank Buying29:15 - Demand Picture & Drawdowns30:35 - C.B. Metal Sourcing?32:22 - Debt & The Silver Lynchpin39:12 - Media & Reaching People41:08 - Wrap Up



Talking Points From This Episode




* David discusses volatile gold and silver prices due to physical supply issues in the London market.



* Jensen warns of potential risk of default from reliance on promissory notes in London gold and silver trading.



* He highlights significant deficits and dwindling inventories in the silver market, which will eventually cause a crisis.




Guest Links:Substack: https://JensenDavid.substack.com/Gab: https://gab.com/DavidJensenReddit: https://www.reddit.com/user/j_stars/Jeff Currie Video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ESxpDsUmQRE



David Jensen, P.Eng., LL.B., MBA, is a Professional Engineer with a degree in Engineering from the University of Waterloo in Canada. He worked through 1993 on the F-5 Fighter Overhaul program and the Bombardier Regional Jet programs. Mr. Jensen then graduated with an LL.B. degree in corporate and commercial law from the University of Calgary and an MBA from Univ. of B.C., majoring in Logistics and Supply Chain Management.



Returning first to aviation, then, after reading Austrian School Economics, Mr. Jensen transitioned to the mining industry in 2004. First through his mining industry consultancy, then as Vice President of Corporate Development for Western Copper Corp., and most recently as President and COO of Skyline Gold.



Mr. Jensen currently serves as President and COO of a private mining company and provides strategic, operational, risk assessment, and precious metals consulting services through his consultancy, Jensen Strategic.

David Jensen: We Are In The End-Stages of Bullion Banks Ability to Modulate the Silver Price


In this Palisades interview, Tom Bodrovics welcomes back hosts global forecaster David Murin to delve into the differences between lateral and linear thinking in the context of current world conflicts. Murin posits that empires cycle through phases of thinking, with laterals leading initially and linears taking control as empires mature. He attributes the current global climate to an unprecedented level of linear thinking due to sophisticated money printing over the past two decades, which has left societies inflexible to dynamic threats.



Murin further discusses geopolitical implications, particularly regarding the Houthis' actions in the Red Sea and its significance for American maritime hegemony. He raises concerns about China's involvement and advanced military capabilities, emphasizing the importance of maintaining control over critical sea lanes for wealth and resource extraction.



Murin believes historical cycles of war could have been avoided with greater awareness and full-spectrum deterrence, aligning with the 112-year contractive cycle that has led to hegemonic conflicts throughout history.



David also shares his views on China's strategic intentions and resource acquisitions, arguing that China is not primarily concerned with wartime resource gathering but rather denying resources to the West. He points to Argentina as an example where Chinese interests were rejected, giving the West a foothold in the region. Murin suggests Western engagement and political activism are necessary for regime change in countries with autocratic regimes.



He uses numerous price-based systems to understand various markets and sectors, predicting a decline in bond prices and increased inflation for commodities due to excess demand from fiat money. David sees the current situation as a commodity supercycle that affects the entire commodities complex and causes inflation for all physical resources. War contributes to inflation during these cycles. Murin warns of impending wars, emphasizing the importance of adapting and strong leadership in response to threats.



Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction1:02 - Types of Thinking6:20 - Shipping & Shrinking Empire12:40 - Inevitable Conflict?16:07 - China Growth & Cycles20:37 - The Art of War24:12 - BRICS & China26:33 - Fentanyl Problem28:10 - Results of Energy Tariffs31:33 - Inflation & Central Banks36:48 - Models & Mkt. Behavior38:32 - Bond Markets & Gold42:40 - War & Inflation43:53 - Important Developments46:00 - War is Upon Us49:01 - U.S. Navy & Defense52:30 - Wrap Up



Talking Points From This Episode




* Empires cycle through lateral and linear thinking phases, with current global climate characterized by unprecedented linear thinking due to sophisticated money printing.



* Geopolitical implications include challenges to American maritime hegemony in the Red Sea and China's potential denial of resources to the West.



* Historical cycles indicate ongoing hegemonic conflicts and the importance of full-spectrum deterrence, with impending wars requiring quick adaptation and strong leadership.




Guest LinksTwitter: https://twitter.com/GlobalForecastrWebsite: https://www.davidmurrin.co.uk/Lateral Vs Linear Thought: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F_v5720RPmw&t;=636s



David Murrin began his unique career in the oil exploration business amongst the jungles of Papua New Guinea and the southwestern Pacific islands. There, he engaged with the numerous tribes of the Sepik River,

David Murrin: War Equals Massive Inflation


Tom welcomes back Mike Singleton, Senior Analyst and Founder at Invictus Research to the show. Mike explains his views on the business cycle, current economic trends, and their impact on asset classes like stocks, bonds, commodities, and currencies. Mike explains that Invictus defines the business cycle as having three sub-cycles: real growth, inflation, and monetary policy. They believe these cycles drive price action across various assets. The US economy is currently reflating, indicating faster real growth and inflation. Despite inflationary pressures, federal deficits are expected to fuel manufacturing growth due to initiatives like the Inflation Reduction Act and CHIPS Act.



Mike argues that investors can benefit from an inflationary cycle as it leads to potential growth in earnings. However, consumers may face challenges with rising prices, affecting their quality of life and ability to deploy capital into markets. Mike believes that for a clearer understanding of inflation, one should look at commodity prices rather than Consumer Price Index (CPI).



Mike also discusses the significance of copper miners' performance as an indicator of real economic acceleration. He suggests considering ownership of productive assets and taking on more cyclical risk when copper miners outperform copper. Oil, as an energy input, follows this trend, with demand increasing during economic expansion. Despite a recent downturn, it is viewed as a buying opportunity.



The US dollar's relationship with economic data, interest rates, and the Fed is also discussed. While the U.S. economy is outperforming other developed markets, the dollar could strengthen based on interest rate parity. However, its weakening against emerging market currencies due to their improved economic conditions is generally bullish for reflationary assets like commodities and risky investments. Invictus has launched a new mobile app with an AI-enabled chatbot providing retail investors with access to research analysis.



Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:33 - Three Economic Cycles4:43 - Housing Sector Health7:08 - Consumer Spending & Deficits16:33 - CPI Metrics & Adjustments18:02 - Income, Wages, & Demand20:14 - Fed, CPI, Yields, Cuts26:05 - Commodity Demand30:46 - Metal Prices Vs. Miners32:10 - Oil Market Outlook35:23 - Strategies with Miners38:36 - Positioning & Cash40:10 - Investors Vs. Consumers41:25 - Wrap Up



Talking Points From This Episode




* How the business cycle's sub-cycles (real growth, inflation, monetary policy) influence asset price action.



* Copper miners' outperformance signals real economic acceleration; consider productive assets and cyclical risk.



* A stronger US dollar based on interest rate parity could benefit reflationary assets like commodities.




Guest Links:Website: https://invictus-research.com/Twitter: https://twitter.com/InvictusMacro



Michael Singleton is Senior Analyst at Invictus. He studied finance and theology at the University of Notre Dame, where he graduated summa cum laude. After graduating, he worked for several years with Broad Run Investment Management. There he spent most of my time conducting deep, fundamental diligence on the highest quality companies. That grounding gained him a thorough, bottom-up approach to research and has proven invaluable.



Since then, his focus has been spent studying the economy at-large and its relationship with liquid asset markets. There is a massive hole in the anlysis market for timely, thoughtful, and accessible macroeconomic research. That's why he became involved at Invictus.

Michael Singleton: Commodities are Showing the True Inflation Stats


Tom welcomes economist John Williams, the founder of Shadow Government Statistics to the show. Williams shares his background in economics and economic modeling, which led him to scrutinize government statistics due to their potential inaccuracies. He became particularly concerned with employment data revisions and manipulation. Despite improvements, he remains skeptical about inconsistencies' impact on forecasting accuracy.



Williams discusses the misrepresentation of inflation through changes in reporting methodologies, such as the Consumer Price Index (CPI). This underreporting of inflation affects cost-of-living adjustments and pension payouts, leaving retirees facing significant financial challenges. The pandemic exacerbated these issues with distorted CPI reporting.



He also criticizes the current economic situation's representation through GDP growth rates, which may not accurately represent underlying economic conditions. Inflation can lead to an increase in reported real GDP without actual sales growth. The excessive money supply injected into the economy during the pandemic is another major contributor to inflation.



Despite attempts to control inflation through interest rate hikes, the economy has suffered negative growth in critical sectors like retail sales, industrial production, housing, and employment. The Federal Reserve prioritizes the banking system over the economy, making high interest rates more beneficial for banks than for consumers. The historically large disparity between Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Gross Domestic Income (GDI) further highlights a weak economy.



John predicts that despite rising GDP, there is a potential worsening in the next six months with underlying economic downturn and potential high or even hyperinflation. He advises holding precious metals like physical gold and silver as a hedge against inflation and preserving purchasing power during these uncertain times. Gold has been an effective hedge against inflation over the last 40 years, although it can also be manipulated.



Williams believes that the Federal Reserve will continue to intervene with monetary policies despite their inflationary effects. He encourages listeners to visit shadowgovernmentstats.com for more information and to contact him directly at johnwilliams@shadowstatts.com. His website was recently taken down, but the old site remains accessible for background information.



Talking Points From This Episode




* Government statistics, particularly inflation data, can be manipulated and underreported, leading to inaccurate economic representations.



* The Federal Reserve's priority is keeping the banking system afloat rather than addressing underlying economic issues, causing negative consequences for consumers.



* The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) may not accurately represent economic conditions as it can be artificially boosted by inflation and government interventions.



* Precious metals like gold serve as a hedge against inflation and help preserve purchasing power during uncertain economic times.




Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:38 - Background in Business4:15 - Models Being Redefined12:08 - Inflation Reporting17:26 - Releases & Revisions25:25 - Redefining Everything33:12 - Inflation Vs. GDP35:37 - Inflation Causations37:36 - Money Supply Measures46:56 - Real Economic Outlook50:39 - Gold - Inflation Hedge52:35 - Fed & The Next Crisis54:53 - Debt to GDP & Rates59:15 - Wrap Up



Guest Links:Website: https://shadowstats.comE-Mail: johnwilliams@shadowstats.com


John Williams: Hyperinflation and Depression – The Hidden Truth Within Our Economic Data


Tom welcomes back Steve St. Angelo of the SRSrocco Report for a discussion on the economics of Bitcoin mining, focusing on the lifespan and economic viability of Bitcoin mining hardware. According to St. Angelo, major US Bitcoin miners Marathon and Riot account for significant portions of global hash rate production, with Bitcoin mining consuming approximately 1-2% of US electricity. However, Bitcoin miners' hardware depreciates rapidly; while they last five years, they become almost obsolete in two years, producing only around 90% of their total Bitcoin output by that time.



St. Angelo discusses the implications of this rapid depreciation on sustainability and profitability, raising concerns about underreported depreciation costs, which can mislead investors. To fund the capital expenditure required to replace these miners, companies issue large amounts of shares, leading to significant dilution for existing shareholders.



The conversation also touches on the potential use of stranded energy for Bitcoin mining but expresses concerns about its scarcity as energy demand grows. St. Angelo compares this to the gold mining industry, where inflation caused by government actions impacts production costs. He argues that the high depreciation rate and underreporting of these costs in the Bitcoin mining industry could lead to significant financial challenges.



Marathon and Riot's claims about not needing to issue further shares for growth remain uncertain. Steve expresses concerns regarding Bitcoin's energy consumption compared to gold mining and its unsustainability due to the need for continuous miner replacement. Despite his criticism of Bitcoin, he acknowledges that some investors are avid supporters. He emphasizes physical metals like gold as a higher quality collateral due to their durability and lack of ongoing energy consumption.



Additionally, Steve discusses trends in Gold Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) inflows and outflows between Western countries and Asia, particularly China. While there have been significant net outflows from Western Gold ETFs for several years, Eastern countries like China have experienced substantial increases in their Gold ETFs due to central banks' large-scale gold purchases. The West's potential shift towards real assets like gold is suggested, given the risks associated with US Treasuries and money market accounts. However, acquiring gold with potentially devalued dollars presents a challenge for Western investors.



Talking Points From This Episode




* Steve discusses Bitcoin mining's rapid hardware depreciation, its impact on profitability, and sustainability concerns.



* Marathon and Riot's Bitcoin mining operations face significant underreported depreciation costs.



* Gold ETF trends: Eastern countries' surge in gold purchases versus Western net outflows.




Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:44 - Economics of BTC Mining?4:10 - Mining Economics & Charts13:30 - Hash Rates & New Hardware17:07 - Share Dilution Solutions19:34 - Underperformance & CAP-Ex25:30 - All-In Costs & Mining27:56 - Electricity Consumption30:40 - End to End Depreciation37:17 - Bitcoin Value & Time38:35 - Comparing Mining Industries41:37 - Gold Mining Total Costs44:08 - Bitcoin Vs. Gold48:30 - Chinese Gold ETF Flows53:10 - Wrap Up



Guest Links:Website: https://srsroccoreport.com/Twitter: https://twitter.com/SRSroccoReportYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCED7G7CZfqdSV9zttlr1M_g



Independent researcher Steve St.

Craig Hemke: The Economy is Clearly Now in Recession

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