Credit Currents - Moody's Ratings

Original publish date: October 14, 2020

Inside this episode:

• Ivy Poon of the Infrastructure Finance team discusses how fiscal support will help offset the rise in leverage for infrastructure issuers resulting from increased capital spending on transportation, renewable energy and other projects.
• Celina Vansetti-Hutchins of the Banking team explains what the rapid drop in Brazilian interest rates this year means for credit conditions for the country’s banks.​

Related content:

1. Falling lending spreads amid record-low rates are credit negative for Brazilian banks
2. Policy support for infrastructure investment will aid economic recovery 

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Original publish date: September 30, 2020

Inside this episode:

• Constantinos Kypreos of the Banking team talks about the mounting credit strains on African banks, a reflection of the weakening financial strength of their home countries.
• Elisa Parisi-Capone of the Sovereign team examines the credit effects of Lebanon’s economic, financial and social crisis, as well as the potential for reforms.​

Related content:

1. Pressures on sovereigns from coronavirus crisis weakens banks’ credit profiles
2. Sovereign and Supranational - Government of Lebanon - C No Outlook: Annual credit analysis

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Original publish date: September 16, 2020

Inside this episode:

• Gersan Zurita of the Credit Strategy & Research team discusses the steep decline in Mexican employment resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic and why the road to recovery will be long. 
• Evan Wohlmann of the Sovereign team explains how heightened political instability in Belarus is negative for the country’s sovereign credit quality.​​​

Related content:

1. Credit Conditions – Mexico: Steep job losses and slow recovery prospects will deepen economic malaise
2. Government of Belarus – B3 Stable: Regular update
3. Moody's Emerging Markets Focus

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Original publish date: September 2, 2020

Inside this episode:

• Elena Duggar discusses the Credit Strategy & Research team’s analysis of the four main causes of sovereign bond defaults and how environmental, social and governance issues can be contributing factors. 
• Atsi Sheth explains how increased manufacturing output and Chinese economic activity point to an incipient rebound in global trade.​​​

Related content:

1. Global Trade Monitor – August 2020
2. The causes of sovereign defaults
3. COVID-19 will accelerate supply chain shifts in a more fragmented trade system
4. Moody's Emerging Markets Focus

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Original publish date: August 19, 2020

Inside this episode:

• Christian de Guzman of the Sovereign team discusses how lower wages and the fall in employment of migrant workers in advanced economies will result in a decline in remittances to some developing economies. 
• Banking team analyst Nitish Bhojnagarwala talks about our outlook for the issuance of Islamic sukuk bonds.​

Related content:

1. Sukuk issuance set for modest decline despite coronavirus outbreak
2. Lower remittances after coronavirus to hurt consumption, raise external risks in major recipient countries
3. Moody's Emerging Markets Focus

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Original publish date: August 5, 2020

Inside this episode:

• Corporates analyst Lahlou Meksaoui discusses the credit outlook for UAE property developers. 
• Sean Hwang, also from the Corporates team, talks about prospects for a revival of Macao's gaming sector.​​​

Related content:

1. Double hit from coronavirus and oil price slump will erode credit quality for most
2. End of quarantine for mainland tourists is credit positive for gaming companies
3. Moody's Emerging Markets Focus

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Original publish date: July 22, 2020

Inside this episode:

• Artem Frolov of the Corporates team provides insight about our cautiously optimistic view of Russian oil companies’ credit dynamics despite the adverse operating environment. 
• Michael Higgins of the Sovereign team discusses the challenges and recovery prospects for non-investment grade emerging and frontier market sovereigns.​​

Related content:

1. Russian oil majors’ credit quality will stay solid despite coronavirus, oil price pressure
2. Coronavirus shock triggers sharp economic downturn and intensifies fiscal and external liquidity challenges
3. Moody's Emerging Markets Focus

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Original publish date: July 8, 2020

Inside this episode:

• Sarah Carlson of the Sovereign team examines Turkey’s economic and credit prospects following the coronavirus shock.
• Merxe Tudela Carreres of the Model Development group discusses the findings of Moody’s new EM Financial Conditions Indicators series.​​​​

Related content:

1. Financial conditions stabilise, but pandemic fallout casts shadow on H2 credit prospects
2. Moody's Emerging Markets Focus

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Original publish date: June 24, 2020

Inside this episode:

• David Rogovic of the Sovereigns team discusses how the global travel slump is hurting emerging market countries, particularly small island-economies with a heavy dependence on tourism revenue. 
• Barbara Mattos of the Corporates team shares insights as to how Brazilian mining giant Vale, a bellwether for the sector, is faring after coronavirus related disruption to its operations. ​​​​​​​

Related content:

1. Lack of economic diversification and fiscal space leave small, island economies vulnerable to sustained drop in tourism
2. Coronavirus outbreak halts Itabira, a credit negative for operational stability
3. Moody's Emerging Markets Focus

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