Institutional reforms, policy reversals, debt restructurings and the prospect of new hydrocarbon production are leading to gradual improvement in some sovereigns’ creditworthiness from weak levels.

Guest: John Walsh, Analyst, Sovereign Risk Group, Moody's Ratings

Host: Vittoria Zoli, Analyst, Credit Strategy & Guidance, Moody's Ratings

Related Research:

• Sovereign – Sub-Saharan Africa: Governance is key to realising credit benefits for new hydrocarbon producers
• Sovereign – Sub-Saharan Africa: Institutional reforms are supporting creditworthiness for select sovereigns

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Risk exposure is highest for those directly involved in the region’s three main hotspots. But the knock-on economic effects of the tensions have the potential to hurt, or help, other APAC governments.

Guest: Anushka Shah, Vice President - Senior Credit Officer, Sovereign Risk Group, Moody's Ratings

Host: Vittoria Zoli, Analyst, Credit Strategy & Guidance, Moody's Ratings

Related Research:

• Sovereigns – Asia-Pacific: Geopolitical risk shapes creditworthiness for a host of governments

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India's large domestic market shields its companies from external shocks, whereas Indonesia's export-dependent commodity sector prompts government efforts to diversify growth.

Guests: Rachel Chua, VP-Senior Analyst; Sweta Patodia, AVP-Analyst

Host: Vittoria Zoli, Analyst, Credit Strategy & Guidance, Moody's Ratings

Related Research: 

• Nonfinancial Companies – India and Indonesia: Credit quality will remain robust, even as earnings trajectory diverges
• Nonfinancial Companies – Southeast Asia Dollar bond issuance will regain momentum when US interest rates begin to fall
• Nonfinancial Companies – India: Offshore funding indispensable despite improving domestic liquidity

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Challenges include the region’s reliance on fossil fuels to meet energy demand amid population growth, the companies’ weak financials and governments’ reliance on revenue from oil and gas producers.

Guests: Roxana Munoz and Carolina Chimenti, both Vice President - Senior Analysts, Corporate Finance Group, Moody's Ratings

Host: Vittoria Zoli, Analyst, Credit Strategy & Guidance, Moody's Ratings

Related research:

• Oil & Gas – Latin America & Caribbean: National oil companies struggle to reconcile governments' emission-reduction goals

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Rate hikes in Turkiye have slowed inflation, and confidence in the country’s currency is increasing. The sovereign’s creditworthiness is improving as a result, along with that of Turkish companies.

Guests: Kathrin Muehlbronner, Senior Vice President, Sovereign Risk Group, Moody’s Ratings; Iker Ballestero Barrutia, Analyst, Corporate Finance Group, Moody's Ratings

Host: Vittoria Zoli, Analyst, Credit Strategy & Guidance, Moody's Ratings

Related Research:

• Moody's Ratings takes rating actions on eight Turkish corporates following upgrade of Turkiye sovereign rating
• Government of Turkiye – B1 positive: Update following upgrade to B1, outlook remains positive
• Government of Turkiye: Macro-financial monitor: CBRT tightening shows first results, but more is needed to moderate inflation
• Moody's Ratings upgrades Turkiye's ratings to B1, maintains positive outlook
• Government of Turkiye: Announced policy shift is credit positive but implementation comes with challenges

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The opposition to proposed tax hikes impedes the government’s ability to increase revenue and reduce debt. Similar risks exist for other emerging market sovereigns too.

Guest: David Rogovic, Vice President - Senior Credit Officer, Sovereign Risk Group, Moody’s Ratings

Host: Scott Phillips, Head of Emerging Markets, Credit Strategy and Research, Moody’s Ratings

Related Research:

• Moody's Ratings downgrades Kenya's ratings to Caa1; maintains negative outlook
• Government of Kenya: Protests against Finance Bill's tax measures challenge government's fiscal consolidation strategy
• Government of Kenya: Kenya's IMF agreement bolsters short-term liquidity; fiscal consolidation is key to improving credit quality
• Sovereigns – Sub-Saharan Africa: 2024 Outlook - Negative on large debt maturities amid tight funding conditions

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We have revised our aggregate EM forecast up slightly to 3.9% for 2024-25 to reflect faster-than-expected growth in some of the largest EMs so far this year. Disinflation continues but is slowing.

Speaker: Madhavi Bokil, Senior Vice President, Credit Strategy at Moody's Ratings

Host: Vittoria Zoli, Analyst, Emerging Markets at Moody’s Ratings

Related Research:

• Emerging Markets – Global: GDP growth stays solid; disinflation slows
• Global Macro Outlook 2024-25 (May 2024 update): G-20 momentum persists in 2024 with disinflation and cooler growth ahead

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The creation of a coalition government following 29 May elections will likely support broad policy continuity and reforms, but the risk of government instability and ineffectiveness is significant.

Guest: Aurelien Mali, Vice President-Senior Credit Officer, Sovereign Risk Group, Moody's Ratings

Host: Scott Phillips, Associate Managing Director, Credit Strategy & Research, Moody's Ratings

Related research:

• Government of South Africa: National unity government will likely support broad policy continuity and the pursuit of economic reforms

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Moody’s Ratings experts discuss the fragile recovery and new threats in EMs, including macro conditions, default trends, credit risks for sovereigns and corporates, and bright spots.

Host: Scott Phillips, Associate Managing Director, Moody’s Ratings

Related Research:

• Fragile recovery in EM credit conditions will continue
• Emerging Markets – Global: Local currency bond markets are growing fast, a credit-positive trend for debt issuers
• Sovereigns – Emerging Markets: Favorable financing conditions will not solve structural credit challenges
• Government-Related Issuers – Emerging Markets: GRIs’ standalone credit strength and government support vary widely across EMs
• Banks – Emerging Markets: Asset-quality risk is receding but remains high in several countries

To learn more, visit the Emerging Markets topic page.

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Join Scott Phillips, head of EM at Moody’s Ratings, and Maciej Woznica, portfolio manager at asset management firm Coeli, for a tour of the least-developed emerging markets.

Guest: Maciej Woznica, Portfolio Manager, Coeli

Host: Scott Phillips, Associate Managing Director, Moody’s Ratings

Related Research:

• Gradual recovery in emerging market credit conditions will continue (infographic)

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