Europe's rivers are running low, and the credit implications are running deeper than the earnings calls suggest. Phoebe Appenteng and Katie McMahon take it on in the latest Credit Lens: Europe & Beyond, joined by Wayne Jambawo, Financial Analyst at Octus.

The conversation opens on why the Rhine and Danube dropping to record lows is not a chemicals story alone (02:06), before working through the second-order hits across ice cream manufacturers, packaging, care homes, and any issuer with unhedged power exposure (03:45). Wayne flags Currenta and points at Lanxess, BASF, and INEOS as names where the market is still underpricing recurrence risk after four droughts in nine years (05:23).

The back half turns to Virgin Media O2, the 200 million pound dividend that landed days after the senior unsecured tanked, and where the vendor financing notes actually sit in the waterfall (17:41).

A look at two questions credit professionals should be asking now: is climate a recurring cash flow risk, and what does the VMed cap stack really recover?

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Hosted by Phoebe Appenteng and Katie McMahon
Guest: Wayne Jambawo, Financial Analyst, Octus
Produced by Charlie Hall
Edited by Fawaz Muhammed
A Production of The Octus Podcast Network

A Spanish auto supplier quietly filed for insolvency without telling its bondholders. A UK utility is dangling a golden share at the government to fend off nationalization. Two of the messier situations in European credit right now, worked through in one episode.

Phoebe Appenteng and Katie McMahon are joined by Rob Schach, managing editor, EMEA at Octus, to unpack Grupo Antolin's restructuring, from the banks-first deal that offered bondholders a 32.5% haircut (04:10) to the covert Spanish filing that bondholders only discovered through a Chapter 15 petition in the US (05:31). Rob walks through the Rule in Gibbs claim, the winding-up petitions, and where he thinks the leverage actually sits (06:16).

Then Phoebe and Katie turn to Thames Water, the £20 billion cap stack, the London and Valley Water consortium's revised offer, and what a golden share modeled on Rolls Royce would actually mean (17:28). They close with a blind water taste test to identify which glass came from the Thames (21:19).

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Hosted by Phoebe Appenteng and Katie McMahon.
Guest: Rob Schach, Managing Editor, EMEA, Octus.
Produced by Charlie Hall.
Edited by Fawaz Muhammed.
A Production of The Octus Podcast Network

Aston Martin has survived seven bankruptcy proceedings in a century, and the eighth chapter is now being written in a bondholder co-op agreement. Phoebe Appenteng and Katie McMahon are joined by Rafi Rees, Credit Analyst at Octus, to work through the iconic British carmaker's latest brush with distress.

The conversation opens on Lawrence Stroll's 2020 turnaround plan and where the volume math broke down (02:02), before turning to the capital structure and why headline liquidity of £177 million is misleading once minimum cash requirements are stripped out (04:19). Rafi walks through the recent 100 million liquidity injection, the super senior priming facility, and why the 2029 SSNs snapped back into the mid-70s (05:59). The discussion lands on who could actually buy this trophy asset, and why sovereign wealth, Mercedes, and Geely each carry a catch (10:08).

Then Phoebe and Katie build their own stressed holiday itinerary, entirely from the Octus coverage universe. The producer and editor were not invited.

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Hosted by Phoebe Appenteng and Katie McMahon.
Guest: Rafi Rees, Credit Analyst, Octus EMEA
Produced by Charlie Hall.
Edited by Fawaz Muhammed.
A Production of The Octus Podcast Network

Private credit has found a new frontier, and it looks a lot like a football stadium. Phoebe Appenteng and Katie McMahon take it on in the latest Credit Lens: Europe & Beyond, joined by Oscar Laurikka, Head of Europe Private Credit and Deal Origination at Octus.

The conversation opens on why private capital is flowing into European sport, from league-level infrastructure and media rights to asset-backed loans against stadiums and parachute payments (01:37). Laurikka works through why CVC and its peers still avoid direct club stakes, and how Germany's 50-plus-one rule is pushing investors toward hybrid capital structures (07:44).

The second half turns to Grupo Antolin's Spanish recapitalization, where bondholders face a 32.5% haircut while banks get par reinstatement and the family keeps equity (11:21). Phoebe and Katie also weigh the credibility of the 2029 business plan against four consecutive years of missed EBITDA margin targets (14:35). The episode closes with a higher or lower ranking of British prime ministers by tenure (18:14).

Closing Credits

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Hosted by Phoebe Appenteng and Katie McMahon.
Guest: Oscar Laurikka, Head of Europe Private Credit and Deal Origination, Octus.
Produced by Charlie Hall.
Edited by Fawaz Muhammed.
A Production of The Octus Podcast Network

A 217-year-old British pottery just fired its last kiln, and the waterfall tells a familiar story: secured lenders absorb the hit, trade creditors get wiped, and a discount retailer circles the brand. Phoebe Appenteng and Katie McMahon work through the collapse of Denby Pottery in the latest Credit Lens: Europe & Beyond, with Katie dialing in from Dubai and Abu Dhabi after the announced US-brokered pause in the Iran conflict.

They open on Denby's slow decline and Valco Capital Partners' double exposure as sponsor and secured creditor (02:05), before turning to what energy costs and a £45 million-to-£18 million revenue collapse really did to the margin story (07:59). Katie then takes the conversation to the Gulf, where Dubai real estate sukuk have bounced back and off-plan deposits are the number investors are now watching (15:17). The pair land on IFFCO, the $2 billion food and beverage restructuring led by HSBC across the Isle of Man and Singapore (18:30).

A grounded read on consumer credit decline at home and a market in the Gulf holding its breath until September.

Phoebe Appenteng and Katie McMahon open with Ubisoft's mounting financial crisis, where the gaming giant faces a critical November deadline on its convertible debt. What began as disappointing game sales has spiralled into a 1.6 billion debt stack review by White and Case. Charlie Ward, Credit Analyst at Octus, joins (02:11) to break down the failed Star Wars Outlaws release that sold one million copies against analyst expectations of five to six million, the FY26 cash burn of €450 million with €500 million more guided for next year, and the Tencent joint venture that has effectively ring-fenced €660 million of the group's €1.3 billion cash position. With November's convertible put option expected to be fully exercised at €450-500 million, the options are narrowing fast: sell more of the JV to Tencent or engage creditors on an amend-and-extend while the notoriously loose 20-page debt documents still allow it.

From there (14:17), the conversation shifts to fraud in French private education. Collège de Paris is facing collapse after its Digital College subsidiary director invoiced €534,000 in Pokémon cards as "digital event supplies" and drew company funds toward his wedding. But behind the colour is a sector under genuine structural pressure, with falling enrolment, AI disruption to vocational training programmes, and cuts to French state apprenticeship support all bearing down at once.

Petra Diamonds (23:17), a name Katie has been tracking for years, is back on the agenda. Six months after a refinancing that was supposed to draw a line under the company's troubles, lab-grown diamonds continue to erode demand for the smaller stones that make up much of Petra's output. The South African miner's recent blue diamond discovery couldn't prevent the Finsch Mine shutdown and potential Cullinan Mine capex cuts. Katie explains where things now stand.

The episode closes with Jargon Busters (29:03), where Phoebe and Katie decode PIK versus PICE, DIP versus double-dip, BDCs, CLOs, and significant risk transfer transactions, with a hint that a dedicated SRT episode may be on the way.

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Phoebe Appenteng and Katie McMahon open (00:00:05) with a look at how European CLO issuance has held its ground through a turbulent macro backdrop, from last year's tariff shock to the Iran war and ongoing ceasefire uncertainty. With roughly 70 active CLO managers, 19 more in the new manager pipeline and north of 150 registered warehouses, the structural demand picture is clear: there are far more CLOs chasing leveraged loans than there are leveraged loans to fill them.

Victoria Thiele, Senior CLO Reporter at Octus, joins (00:02:00) to break down what that imbalance actually means for deal economics. She covers the arbitrage squeeze from the repricing wave (00:05:00), the captive equity shift redefining how managers absorb liability pressure and the maturity wall building toward 2028 (00:10:30), when an estimated 57 billion euros of leveraged loans will need to refinance. She also takes a contrarian position on the private credit vs BSL debate (00:07:30): the conversation has largely moved on, and the emergence of middle market CLOs in Europe is quietly proving why. With north of 150 warehouses open (00:08:30) and a nine-month ramp from warehouse to deal, strong issuance is locked in well into 2027.

The hosts turn to the primary market (00:13:30), where April high-yield issuance hit 17.6 billion euros, up sharply from 6.4 billion in March. Spreads are tightening through syndication on single B paper. Opportunistic structures, including dividend recaps on names with adjusted EBITDA, are getting done. JP Morgan's head of EMEA leverage finance tells the Octus primary team the gap between market conditions and real-world fundamentals is "stunning." The window is open, and issuers are using it.

The episode closes with updates on two ongoing situations. AirBaltic (00:23:00) has unwound its remaining 10% fuel hedge, is now fully exposed to aviation fuel prices and needs an estimated 200 to 300 million euros to remain viable. Latvia's Prime Minister has resigned over an unrelated matter, complicating the state aid picture with the European Commission still to rule. On MFS (00:28:00), administrators have found Aston Martins, Range Rovers and 1.3 billion euros unaccounted for. HSBC has disclosed a $400 million fraud-related charge and Barclays has taken £228 million in direct losses. Connor Lovell Senior Legal Reporter at Octus continues to cover both stories on the Octus platform.

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This week on Credit Lens Europe and Beyond, Phoebe Appenteng and Katie McMahon unpack the inaugural EMEA Restructuring Outcomes Report from Octus. The headline across 30 large-cap deals: amend-and-extend is losing its grip. Debt-for-equity swaps now make up half of all transactions, creditors walked away with the keys in over 40% of deals, and original sponsors were wiped out or diluted to irrelevance in 10 of 15 debt-for-equity cases.

Ardagh is the centrepiece (02:08), with senior unsecured noteholders taking 92.5% of the equity and Paul Coulson and other legacy shareholders sharing a $300 million exit via Yeoman Capital. New money is now nearly mandatory (25 of 30 deals). The lone holdout: Altice France, where Patrick Drahi held onto 55% on the back of loose docs.

Then (06:05), creditor-on-creditor violence goes mainstream in Europe. Selecta's Hobson's Choice, Lowell's debt-to-securitization uptier, and Kloeckner Pentaplast's Chapter 11 dash for a DIP roll-up all show Europe borrowing from the American playbook. On venue (10:59), the Part 26A trilogy of Thames Water, Petrofac, and Adler has dented UK confidence, while France and the US keep pulling large mandates.

Then something different (16:09). Chris Haffenden sits down with Fiona Huntriss of Pallas Partners on s.901C(4) of the Companies Act 2006. Not cramming creditors down, but cramming them out. Fiona acted on the only case where it has ever been deployed, the second restructuring plan for Smile Telecoms in 2022, and walks through why even then the courts trod carefully. With Waldorf now raising its spectre (19:48), her read is that it remains a draconian tool but its profile is rising fast in live negotiations.

Afternoon Tea (24:23): a Florida family suing NASA after 1.6 pounds of space debris crashed through their roof. Then (26:04) Katie's in the hot seat for Identify the ReFi: a French retailer still wrestling with a chunky 2027 TLB, and a European satellite operator that raised €1.5 billion to retire 2029 and 2027 paper. 

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Hosted by Phoebe Appenteng & Katie McMahon

Guest Segment:

Chris Haffenden (Senior Editor, Octus) 

Fiona Huntriss (Pallas Partners)

Produced by Charlie Hall |  Edited by Fawaz Muhammed

A Production of The Octus Podcast Network

Phoebe Appenteng and Katie McMahon open with European chemicals giant INEOS Group, where geopolitical chaos has created an unexpected windfall. What began as Middle East conflict disrupting global supply chains has turned into a potential EBITDA doubling opportunity for Sir Jim Ratcliffe's petrochemical empire. Daniel Avis, Primary Reporter at Octus, joins (01:17) to discuss how INEOS's ethane cracker advantage and North Sea oil access position the company as a clear winner while Asian competitors declare force majeure.

From there (10:27), the hosts pivot to Latvian state backed carrier Air Baltic, facing a liquidity crunch that has sent its bonds from near par to the 40s in just three months. The airline's shocking revelation, only 10% hedging on 2026 jet fuel compared to Ryanair's 80%, has left investors questioning management strategy as European fuel prices hit all time highs. S&P's recent downgrade signals distressed restructuring as "all but inevitable" without immediate intervention.

This episode's unofficial cultural sponsor, Jonathan the 192 year old tortoise (18:23), makes his crypto debut through an alleged meme coin scam. The tongue in cheek tribute highlights market manipulation tactics before Phoebe and Katie transition to "Identify the Refi," featuring French care home operator Clarion's 500 million euro refinancing and Swiss specialty chemicals firm Arxada's rejected amendment proposal.

The show closes with afternoon tea (18:00), where tortoise resurrection metaphors meet bond refinancing reality. The hosts celebrate successful guessing games and preview upcoming liquidity walls across European distressed credits.

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Hosted by Phoebe Appenteng & Katie McMahon

Credit Lens hosts Phoebe Appenteng and Katie McMahon open with the unfolding MFS situation, where what began as routine market positioning has escalated into significant operational challenges. The fund faces mounting pressure from regulatory scrutiny, liquidity concerns, and investor redemption requests. Connor Lovell, Senior Legal Reporter here at Octus joins (05:30) to discuss MFS's current predicament, market positioning strategies, and the broader implications for mutual fund operations in today's volatile environment.

From there (18:45), Phoebe and Katie shift focus to Gulf region developments and the ongoing conflict's ripple effects across global credit markets. Rising energy costs, supply chain disruptions, and geopolitical uncertainty have created a complex web of market pressures. Regional banking institutions report increased volatility in commodity-linked securities, while energy sector credits face heightened scrutiny from institutional investors.

The conversation moves to broader market implications (28:20), examining how geopolitical tensions translate into credit risk assessments. The hosts analyze recent downgrades in transportation and logistics sectors, discuss emerging opportunities in defensive credit positions, and debate whether current market dislocations represent temporary volatility or structural shifts in global credit allocation.

The episode closes (35:15) with a discussion of investor positioning strategies amid uncertainty. Phoebe and Katie explore how institutional players are adjusting portfolios, the role of credit derivatives in risk management, and emerging trends in distressed debt markets as geopolitical factors continue reshaping investment landscapes.

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Hosted by Phoebe Appenteng & Katie McMahon