Critical Point Podcast

Critical Point Podcast

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Critical Point Podcast episodes

  • Morning Brief- Grains Sep 24
    L3/L2 trends peaked for corn and soybeans and wheat.
    Good exports and lower yields, but a stronger dollar and lower available demand in futures create pressure. And it is harvest-time. Renewed supplies cometh.
    14 min
  • Morning Brief- Stock Market Sep 24
    US major stock indexes: An L3 bottom is due. Maybe the more important L1, but this podcast shows an alternate forecast. L4 intraweek upswing is due.
    Watch the technical of the 100d avg for the SP500 for clues of supply versus demand.
    The market is concerned about lack of additional economic stimulus by Congress. Fed Chairman Powell's comment on pro-additional government-based stimulus might of upset the market yesterday. An ugly close yesterday.
    The percent stocks above the Nasdaq 100 50-day average collapsed. Across the board selling. A sign of exhaustion or another leg lower for stock prices?
    The VIX is swinging higher but of prior model-based highs and ideally, it will erode over time. What might go right or wrong?
    A poor week for gold. Suggests concerns over a deflating economy. And global/US virus cases surge.
    The dollar continues to surge. A sign of risk-off in stocks creates demand for the dollar? The bond market shows no signs of money exiting stocks for the purchase of bonds. Is the bond market signaling the stock market's decline is a correction within a bull market? No more serious?
    Crude oil acts as though there is little risk of an eroding economy.
    17 min
  • Morning Brief- Grains Sep 18
    A model revision that allows a bit more time for a Critical Point in corn, wheat, and soybeans.
    Strong demand that is supported by ratcheting lower yield estimates and strong export sales, specifically to China.
    But Brazil to be aggressive in the production of soybeans in 2021.
    17 min

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Did you know that standard fundamentals and economics explain only roughly 50% of price fluctuations? It’s more than what you see on TV.