The Aug ISM_PMI came in at 54.2 vs 52.6 the month prior.

The Econ Trend indicator suggests PMI has bottomed. PMI may be sluggish at times relative to a lack of controlling the virus and bankruptcies to continue for a while.

I am calling a type of cyclical bottom for the economy. The best evidence of a return to true growth will be a new record value for nominal GDP per capita. That may not occur until next year. 2021 is the latest year for a long-term business cycle for the economy.

So a bit of encouragement from this type of data. But some economic damage will linger and the reopening of the economy may have been too soon.

The NAREIT index of REITs lags the stock market and rightly so as investors worry over rents, income relative to the virus-recession for the US.

In this podcast, I discuss the long-term scenario for the 2020s and 2030s. I mention a super-cycle bear market due in the 2030s. Like the 1929-30s crash?

In the meantime, there will be twists and turns, but the chart shows the model output that suggests a reason for optimism later this decade.

-33% GDP for the second-quarter caused traders to sell stocks, oil, and the dollar. They bought bonds. Interest rates slipped. Gold and Bitcoin hesitate after explosive rallies.

This podcast shows consumer prices, industrial productivity, GDP including recessions.

The number of battles/wars is due to the rise in the coming years relativeto cycles. To coincide with a super-cycle turn in inflation and interest rates?

The overall trend forecast remains intact. The model is working in the grains and oilseeds.

Hot temps have not caused concern over yields. Large yield numbers are discussed in the media.

The Softs.

A weekly update of near-term price trends of cotton, cocoa, coffee, sugar.

Liking sugar, cocoa, and coffee.

Monitoring long-term possibilities in the Softs. ETFs?

Thailand sugar crop problem?

Does coffee demand improve despite virus-recession?

But what of rolling over economic statistics in recent days.

I ran the model on individual FANG stocks. The result warns of a coming long-term top that could lead to bear market #2 for 2020-21. Maybe the March 2020 low is not that important.

A breakdown from an increase in economic fallout from the virus?

A political blowout? Escalating trade-war? Crashing dollar?

Or a sign of market rotation and diversity of indexes and the real long-term bull market wait until 2022.

Bitcoin, Dollar index, interest rates, inflation, gold.

Super-cycle turn of rates/inflation mentioned.

Performance of a long-term strategy based on a business cycle model since 2010.

The real-time performance was more than +588% profit for 2010-2020 versus the benchmark SP500 at +295%.

Join me as a subscriber on a journey to follow the stock market for the next 10 years. Outperform.

The model is based on the behavior of investors relative to economic growth driven by debt fluctuation, money-printing. A pattern.

criticalpoint.podbean.com

Richard Posson, CMT