Another model update for the larger of intra-year trends in US equities.A critical point nears.

Model update for the stock market relative to the SP500 index.Will seller interest persist into next week?News or chatter of governments and central banks providing stimulus has not caused sustainable buyer interest for equities.Initial jobless claims soar for the US.

Crude oil falls 24% today in 3rd worst day on record, sinks to more than 18-year low. -CNBCToday's Critical Point podcast on oil shows supercycles since 1998.When will the next major critical point of trend occur?Implications for commodities, economy, stock market?

Business cycle short-term, intermediate-term and long-term are down, still. A critical point is due in the coming weeks.Investors were fickle on the buy-side even though the government talks $1 trillion dollar stimulus package.

Volatility continues. The market acted weak relative to news of the US supporting business, consumer; support of the economy.There is a level of the SP500 index if violated would signal still lower prices near-term.

A blip can occur in soybeans, but overall, the more important downtrend is intact, still.When will a critical point of trend occur? Check out this podcast.Inform others of our business cycle model insight into markets and the economy.Thanks

Macro: We show a yield curve that predicted a recession and may now be forecasting a future return to economic growth. That the current crisis is cyclical in nature. Some of the crisis is normal fluctuation.Also, a measurement at the NY Stock Exchange suggesting the stock market bear market is too extreme. So, we are watching for signs of a low in major US indices.

Choppiness this week? A critical point is due two to three weeks from now for major stock market indices like the SP500. A chance for L4 rebound by late today into tomorrow. Check out our latest model update podcast that offers insight into intraweek to long-term fluctuation.

Although the economy is likely now in recession, business cycles place the decline on a timeline and show a reason for optimism of the future.

A model-based update including technical factors for insight as to how low for corn prices.