This episode explores key developments in the global fruits market.

• In India, unseasonal rains from May to October 2024 have devastated grape crops in major producing regions such as Nashik and Sangli, resulting in yield losses of up to 100 percent. This has caused a doubling of grape prices, pushing up wine production costs and leading to a 25 to 30 percent price hike in entry-level wines. Tax incentives that favor the use of local grapes have further intensified cost pressures. The grape shortage is also disrupting India’s fresh grape exports and wine export market, valued at 30 to 40 crore annually.
• Greece, meanwhile, continues to export strawberries to Germany and other European markets despite logistical disruptions, thanks to rerouted shipments through the Port of Patras. Favorable weather has enabled early, abundant harvests, with growers using strategies such as increased potted plantings and a focus on early-ripening varieties like Fortuna, Arwen, and Victory. However, Egyptian strawberries—cheaper but lower in quality are exerting downward pressure on Greek strawberry prices, which are already 15 to 20 percent below last year’s levels.
• In Florida, a new marketing campaign by the Strawberry Growers Association highlights the quality and flavor of local strawberries under the Fresh From Florida brand. The campaign uses digital platforms to reach consumers and supports Florida’s expanding strawberry production. Nevertheless, market saturation and perishability continue to pose challenges.
• Egypt’s strawberry sector has achieved a 150 percent increase in exports to Russia and a 25 percent rise in total exports for 2025, now reaching 86 countries. This growth is aided by an accelerated harvest season due to higher-than-average temperatures, improving Egypt’s export timing and competitiveness.
• In Southeast Asia, Korean strawberries are thriving as premium exports due to their high sugar content and quality. Varieties like Seol Young, developed locally, are favored in markets despite intense competition from Mexico, Spain, and the United States. However, dependence on a few specific cultivars and climatic sensitivity pose sustainability risks, emphasizing the need for ongoing innovation and varietal diversification.

This episode explores major developments in the global fruits market.

• Chile’s grape industry has been significantly affected by the suspension of a systems approach previously used for U.S. market access. Key grape-growing regions such as Atacama, Coquimbo, and Valparaíso—responsible for around 20 million boxes annually—are facing logistical and financial setbacks. With some firms reverting to traditional fumigation, quality standards and export competitiveness have been compromised.
• In Peru, grape production faced weather-related delays, particularly in the north due to heavy rainfall. However, recovery is expected in December from the southern regions. Demand for green seedless grapes remains strong, supporting stable pricing despite the early end of the California season.
• Spain’s strawberry season began in Lepe, Huelva, under tough conditions caused by high temperatures and storm damage. Despite this, planted areas expanded, with early harvests favoring the pest-resistant Candela variety. In Egypt, early strawberry harvests increased supply but reduced quality, leading to low local prices. Growers dealt with pest issues and poor seedling quality, though demand remains stable for high-quality, low-residue exports. New processing methods, such as drying, are being introduced to meet global demand.
• Ukraine’s berry sector saw a 35% decline in processed output compared to vegetables, driven by high raw material costs and volatile market prices. Still, companies like Tevita exceeded their targets, reflecting resilience in a challenging environment. Peru reported strong growth in strawberry exports, primarily to the United States, with frozen strawberries dominating due to consumer preference.
• On Réunion Island, Victoria pineapple production has declined due to subsidy cuts and evolving agricultural practices. Strategic delays in market entry aim to avoid low demand periods, while sustainability and fair producer compensation remain priorities.
• South Africa’s citrus sector reported export growth supported by favorable weather and efficient port operations. Demand for juicing-grade oranges and lemons remains strong. However, concerns persist over the impact of U.S. tariffs and the need for broader international market access to ensure long-term sustainability.

This week’s global fruits market report.

• Peru has strengthened its position in the global grape market, particularly with exports to China surpassing 34,000 tons by 2024, securing its place as the second-largest supplier. This success is attributed to agricultural innovations such as modern irrigation, drone technologies, and automated post-harvest systems, which have improved both product quality and logistics. In contrast, Chile has dropped to third place among grape exporters to China, with exports falling to 30,000 tons due to labor shortages, drought, rising costs, and underperformance of new grape varieties.
• Moldova has emerged as a significant grape exporter, reaching over 30,000 tons by November 2025, with more than half directed to the European Union. While average prices have slightly declined, revenues remain strong, aided by enhanced storage infrastructure that has supported consistent export flows despite adverse weather.
• Peru’s blueberry exports are projected to stabilize at 360,000 tons in 2025. Since taking the global lead in 2015, Peru has maintained growth through strategic supply management and diversification of seasonal varieties. Climate change poses an increasing threat to blueberry production, especially in Latin America and Africa, where higher temperatures and reduced water availability are affecting crop quality and raising production costs. Adaptive strategies, including relocating production and investing in technology, are underway in Peru and Chile.
• Chilean grape exports to the U.S. face additional barriers due to the suspension of the system approach, requiring fumigation on arrival. This has raised costs and diminished competitiveness relative to Peruvian grapes, which retain cold chain integrity from harvest to market.
• In Argentina, shifts in agricultural priorities are emerging as farmers move from soybeans toward more profitable crops like corn and sunflower. This transition is expected to boost yield potential and processing capabilities in the coming years.
• Finally, Ghana is implementing a new minimum farm gate price for mangoes through the Tree Crops Development Authority. This initiative seeks to improve price transparency, enhance economic predictability for growers, and better align local production with international market demands.

This episode examines the state of the global fruits market.

• In South Africa's KwaZulu Natal, a severe outbreak of Banana Bunchy Top Virus (BBTV) has devastated the Kwan Yuswa agricultural farm, affecting 25 hectares and killing approximately 3,000 banana plants. The outbreak has led to an estimated revenue loss of R500,000 and impacted over 100 indirect beneficiaries from the Roselands Community Trust. In response, the farm is implementing recovery strategies such as acquiring agrochemical supplies, investing in new seedlings and fertilizers, and developing uncontaminated fields. Management emphasizes the importance of aphid control training, rigorous recordkeeping, and ongoing field monitoring.
• In trade policy, the United States eliminated a 15 percent tariff on select Costa Rican fruits, including bananas and pineapples, boosting economic prospects for Costa Rican producers and enhancing supply availability for the U.S. market.
• Peru’s table grape season is progressing well despite initial weather delays. The Piura region has completed 40 percent of its harvest, with red grape varieties benefiting from improved coloration due to cooler temperatures. Green grapes, particularly the Autumn Crisp variety, are in high demand in the United States, with exports projected to exceed 17 million boxes. Total seasonal output is forecasted at 87 million boxes, with peak volumes expected in February.
• However, a recent U.S. federal court ruling halted Chile’s use of a streamlined import methodology for table grapes, reinstating mandatory fumigation. This change may affect Chilean grape competitiveness and quality in the U.S. market. Compounding the issue, severe weather in California and Northern Peru has further strained supply, with a 25 percent drop in exports from Piura compared to last year.
• The United States faces a potential supply gap as it transitions from domestic to imported grapes in December. Brazilian grape exports are constrained by logistics and elevated tariffs, limiting their ability to supplement U.S. demand. These disruptions could lead to price increases, impacting consumer access to what is often considered a luxury fruit.

This episode looks findings of the recent Mango Farm Visits (Ground Truth) in Mexico, offering a dual perspective: the robust stability of the national supply system contrasted with the challenges facing individual orchards. 

We discuss record production figures, critical agronomic risks identified at the tree level, and the advanced technology used to forecast the market months ahead of time.

Episode Summary

Mexico’s mango industry continues to demonstrate resilience, with the 2025 season projected to set another record at approximately 2.4 million tons. As the world's leading mango exporter, the country benefits from strong domestic demand and a broad geographic spread that buffers against regional weather disruptions. However, the sources reveal a wide performance gap. Our discussion explores the widespread issues impacting orchard productivity—including severe nutrient deficiencies, aggressive vegetative growth, and intense pest pressure—and examines the structural climate and regulatory risks that define the sector's long-term outloo

Key Segments

1. The State of Mexican Mango Production

• The strength of the Mexican mango industry is supported by its geographic diversity, strong export market, and deep domestic demand.

• National output has grown steadily since 2020, with production plateauing near 2.35–2.40 million tons. The 2024 harvest previously set a national record at 2,347,620 tons.

• The Pacific corridor accounts for the overwhelming majority of output. In 2024, the states of Sinaloa, Guerrero, Nayarit, Chiapas, and Oaxaca produced roughly 75% of the national crop.

• Guerrero reported the highest yields nationally, reaching more than fifteen tons per hectare. Sinaloa remains the dominant contributor in terms of volume.

• Domestic consumption is strong, absorbing more than half of national production, which provides essential stability when external demand fluctuates.

2. Ground Truth: Agronomic Challenges at the Orchard Level

Crop surveys revealed significant variability in management and performance. While some orchards are well-managed and structurally sound, many show major issues directly affecting production and supply stability.

• Nutrient Imbalances and Growth: Many mature orchards exhibit dense canopies and excessive vegetative growth, often driven by high nitrogen use. This aggressive leafy growth suppresses flowering by diverting energy away from reproductive buds.

• Deficiencies: Widespread deficiencies were recorded, particularly of potassium (K), magnesium (Mg), and iron (Fe). For example, Site 10 showed severe K/Mg deficiency, resulting in pale, bronzed flushes and significantly limiting fruit set potential. Corrective action requires immediate nitrogen reduction and the boosting of K and Mg.

• Pest and Disease Pressure: Pest pressure is significant, with evidence of damage from leafhoppers (Idioscopus spp.), thrips, and red mites (e.g., Site 4). This damage causes scarring, reducing marketable quality and photosynthetic capacity.

• Fungal Risk: There is widespread fungal disease risk, especially anthracnose (Colletotrichum gloeosporioides) in shaded, humid canopies, and powdery mildew (Oidium mangiferae). Poor pruning structures contribute to this risk by generating dense, shaded environments (e.g., Site 8).

• Low Yield Potential: Many sites exhibited highly uneven fruit loads, sometimes representing less than 20% of potential yield, due to nutrient stress and reproductive imbalance (e.g., Site 5).

• High Performers: In contrast, younger, well-managed orchards that use structured pruning, drip irrigation, and balanced fertilisation show markedly better performance (e.g., Site 7), demonstrating strong fruit set and minimal disease pressure.

3. Structural and Immediate Supply Risks

The long-term outlook is defined by both opportunity and significant risk.

• Climate Risks: Regional variability in weather is the principal production risk.

    ◦ Irregular Rainfall: Atypical rains in southern states (like Guerrero and Oaxaca) disrupt bloom cycles, reducing early fruit set (e.g., the start of the 2025 season).

    ◦ Drought: Persistent drought in northern regions (like Sinaloa) remains a concern, threatening fruit sizing and increasing irrigation requirements.

    ◦ Severe Weather: The increased frequency of severe weather events like hurricanes poses an acute seasonal risk, particularly during flowering and harvest periods.

• Pest and Regulatory Risks:

    ◦ Fruit Flies: These represent the most serious threat, potentially jeopardising export access due to the zero-tolerance import standards of markets like the United States. Regulatory restrictions, such as the temporary limitation on Sunday operations in Mexican packing facilities in 2024, highlight this sensitivity.

    ◦ Pesticide Transition: Mexico is preparing to ban high-toxicity pesticides, requiring growers to rapidly transition to new integrated pest management (IPM) strategies, which poses an increased risk of insufficient pest suppression during the transition period.

• Long-Term Concerns: Water scarcity, rising temperatures, and the ageing of orchard stock are major structural challenges.

4. Advanced Forecasting and Yield Modelling

Ground-Truth (GT) teams conduct extensive crop surveys, capturing data like leaf-level disease signatures, canopy structure, and nutrient deficiency scores (K, Mg, Fe, Ca, N).

• Data Integration: GT data is ingested into CropGPT, which calibrates AI models, validates satellite analysis, and strengthens early-season yield forecasting.

• Multi-Layer Modelling: HSAT’s yield and production models integrate GT crop surveys, satellite analytics (such as NDVI and canopy temperature), and economic indicators (like fertilizer prices and logistics constraints).

• Accuracy and Advantage: This integrated forecasting system, which draws on over 20 years of historical data, consistently achieves over 95% accuracy. This allows traders and producers to forecast production trends and identify emerging risks months ahead of traditional market indicators. The models can detect anthracnose lesions, nutrient deficiencies, water stress, and the balance between vegetative versus reproductive growth.

This episode provides a comprehensive update on the global fruits market as of November 16, 2025.

In the United Kingdom, the average cost of banana imports has dropped to 0.78 per kilogram, a 16 percent weekly decline. This downward trend is seen across Latin American exporters: Guatemala (-20 percent), Nicaragua (-22 percent), Costa Rica (-9 percent), and Colombia (-12 percent). Seasonal supply shifts and waning European demand are the main factors driving this price reduction.

Colombia has signed a new trade deal with China, commencing in 2026, to export 15,000 tons of bananas annually. This agreement requires stringent compliance with China's quality and sanitation standards, prompting infrastructure upgrades and certification initiatives. Meanwhile, Ecuador’s banana sector continues to face threats from TR4 fungus and black sigatoka disease, stressing the need for consistent investment in disease management and biosecurity.

India’s grape industry is grappling with yield losses of up to 50 percent due to adverse weather and disease outbreaks, leading to expected price increases. Conversely, Greece is experiencing a productive strawberry season, with only 10 percent crop loss, thanks to improved weather and strategic farming. In China, blueberry cultivation has surged to over 90,000 hectares, positioning the country as the world’s leading producer amid rising domestic demand fueled by health-conscious consumers.

In the Americas, Washington’s raspberry industry is struggling with competitive Mexican imports and higher production costs. Stakeholders are advocating for fair trade protections. Ukraine has risen as Europe’s top raspberry exporter and expects a 20 percent price increase despite losses from spring frosts.

India’s pineapple sector has expanded land use by 60 percent since 2020, focusing on exports to Gulf nations and the Maldives. Efforts are increasing to diversify processing methods to improve shelf life and broaden export reach.

Australia has launched the Ruby Gold Mango, a new variety praised for its flavor and appearance. Early consumer trials indicate strong market potential. In Peru, mango output is forecasted to fall by 15 percent, which may drive up prices. Nonetheless, product quality remains stable, with efforts ongoing to enhance shipping logistics and port operations to support export stability.

This episode delivers a global overview of the fruit market as of November 9, 2025.

• Chile’s table grape industry faces a critical setback following the suspension of the United States Systems Approach Protocol. This decision stems from a federal court ruling against USDA exemptions that previously allowed certain Chilean regions to bypass methyl bromide fumigation. The suspension hits hardest in Atacama and Coquimbo—areas free of the European grapevine moth—and is compounded by potential delays in appeal processes due to government closure. Producers are now lobbying for exemptions and alternative treatments amid a concurrent 10% tariff on grape imports to the U.S., placing additional pressure on exporters.
• In Tamil Nadu’s Khumbum Valley, India, monsoon rains are severely impacting pannier grape production. Waterlogging and delayed ripening have driven prices down, especially in competition with Maharashtra’s seedless grape variety. Wildlife interference further threatens crops, prompting the Department of Horticulture to advocate for subsidized anti-bird netting to help mitigate losses.
• Uzbekistan has launched its first grape exports to Japan, marking a milestone in global market entry. Varieties such as Kalin barmak and Kora kishmish from Fergana were included in this initial shipment. A broader agreement with Kuva Agrostar LLC also involves additional fruits, strengthening Uzbekistan’s agricultural trade potential and boosting its economic footprint.
• California’s table grape season is nearing its end, with harvests expected to conclude by November 20. Despite shipping approximately 60 million boxes and planning 20 million more, continued strong demand is supported by low domestic fruit supplies and strawberry crop setbacks. Rain events have necessitated costly protective measures to maintain fruit quality.
• In Australia, extreme weather has again impacted fruit production. A thunderstorm in Northern New South Wales devastated Stephen Thandy’s blueberry farm, resulting in infrastructure and crop losses estimated at over $300,000. This underscores the increasing vulnerability of fruit farming to severe climatic events.

Mexico’s mango industry has become a global powerhouse, producing more than 2.2 million tons in 2023 and supplying nearly 85% of its exports to the United States. But beneath that record output lies a story of strain.

This episode unpacks the forces reshaping the country’s mango sector - from climate extremes and new pesticide bans to the economic realities facing smallholder farmers who make up 70% of producers. Drought in Sinaloa slashed exports by 75%, while heavy rains in Chiapas and Oaxaca wiped out parts of the prized Ataulfo “honey mango” crop.

We explore how Mexico’s nine-month mango season depends on a carefully sequenced coastal harvest, why yield gains have stalled despite rapid expansion, and what the phaseout of 35 “red list” agrochemicals means for growers already stretched by weather volatility.

As the conversation turns toward 2026, the message is clear: the future of tropical farming isn’t about planting more trees - it’s about building resilience through smarter irrigation, adaptive genetics, and affordable technology for small-scale growers.

In this episode of CropGPT – Fruits, we dive deep into the dramatic rise and fall of the U.S. tart cherry industry — from the record-breaking recovery of 2024 to the devastating collapse of 2025. Discover how Michigan’s dominance in tart cherry production, accounting for 75% of U.S. output, left the entire market vulnerable to a single spring freeze that wiped out nearly half the national crop.

We unpack the chain reaction that followed: catastrophic weather events, surging labor costs, pest infestations, and global supply shocks that reshaped the economics of specialty fruit farming. You’ll hear how climate volatility, from wind-chill-induced freezes to shifting La Niña patterns, is redefining the future of cherry production — and how growers are fighting back with technology, precision agriculture, and new adaptation strategies.

From frost protection failures to the rebirth of resilience in America’s cherry capital, this episode explores what the “boom-to-bust” cycle reveals about the broader climate and market risks threatening global agriculture.

Key topics:

• Michigan’s 2024 cherry surge and 2025 collapse
• Impact of April 2025 freeze and extreme wind conditions
• Labor shortages, H-2A wage pressures, and processing bottlenecks
• Price spikes and market substitution (cranberry, blueberry)
• Outlook for the 2026 season amid low inventories
• Climate adaptation, La Niña forecasts, and the future of frost protection

2025 US Blueberry Production Decline, analyzing how extreme weather events have triggered critical market volatility and accelerated the industry’s push toward precision agriculture and data-driven solutions.

The Climate Volatility Risk

While the overall projected US cultivated volume remains robust at approximately 721 million pounds, the market is defined by significant regional crop disasters. The most severe impact stems from the Wild Blueberry (Lowbush) Crop Disaster. Prolonged drought and extreme heat caused yields in key growing areas like Maine and Atlantic Canada to fall by as much as 70% compared to recent averages. Other regions, including New Jersey, also faced significant adverse weather challenges.

Supply Chain Vulnerability and Substitution

Processors rely on the smaller, intensely flavoured Wild Blueberry for frozen and value-added products due to its superior performance under heat. The devastating loss of this wild crop has triggered a supply chain breakdown, forcing manufacturers to substitute with highbush cultivated berries. This massive shift in demand is driving continued price inflation for frozen berries and processed goods well into the next year.

The Data-Driven Response and Resilience Strategy

In response to rising input costs, labour shortages, and climate volatility, the blueberry industry is investing heavily in next-generation technology to secure its long-term growth trajectory.

Key Technological Adoptions and Investments:

• Precision Farming with AI: Growers are adopting advanced programs such as BerrySmart Fields, which utilizes AI and satellite data to optimize every aspect of farming operations, including fertilization and irrigation.

• Automation for Labor Mitigation: Driven by labor shortages and rising wage costs, the industry is accelerating the push toward increased automation and machine harvesting, even developing new genetic varieties specifically designed to withstand mechanical picking.

• Climate-Resilient Genetics: There is a continuous focus on developing climate-resilient genetic varieties to effectively manage the impact of erratic weather patterns.

Additionally, the US Highbush Blueberry Council (USHBC) is focused on risk diversification through global market access. This includes reaching record shipments to Southeast Asia and the strategic opening of the South African market to fresh US blueberries in 2025.

This episode details how the industry is using data and innovation to navigate a volatile market and future-proof production against inevitable climate events.