This episode examines global maize market trends for the week of August 10, 2025.

• Turkey has seen a notable rise in corn imports for the 2024–25 marketing year, driven by a growing poultry industry and government import-promotion policies. Ukraine supplied approximately 5.5 million metric tons, followed by Romania, Russia, Serbia, and Moldova. Domestic production declines have deepened reliance on imports, particularly for poultry feed. The government introduced four import quotas with varying tariffs to stabilize market prices and supply. Imports for the year are expected to fall between 2.5 and 3.5 million metric tons, shaped by price, quality, and quota allocations.
• In Indonesia, third-quarter 2025 corn production is projected to drop by 21.57 percent from last year, driven by a 20.45 percent reduction in harvested area and compounded by phytosanitary and weather-related challenges. Authorities are stressing the need for stronger risk mitigation strategies to protect national reserves and food security.
• Brazil’s corn exports surged in August 2025, supported by a weaker dollar and rapid harvest progress, with shipments forecast at 7.58 million tons for the month. In Parana, favorable weather advanced the second-crop harvest to 74 percent completion, boosting national output. Domestic prices moved in line with contract dates, Chicago market trends, and export forecasts.
• Elsewhere, South Korea increased maize imports for animal feed, including a 65,000-ton purchase from the United States at $262.94 per ton for November 2025 delivery. In Bulgaria’s Yambol region, poor harvest expectations due to adverse weather and limited irrigation highlight the need for infrastructure investment. Vietnam’s 2025 corn imports fell to 4.45 million tons, worth over $1.15 billion, as volumes from Argentina and Brazil declined amid changing market dynamics.
• These developments illustrate how domestic demand patterns, agricultural policies, and international trade conditions are shaping global maize market movements, with direct implications for prices, supply chain stability, and food security strategies.

This episode delivers a detailed summary of the global wheat market as of August 3, 2025.

• In the United States, the wheat market presents mixed conditions. The winter wheat harvest is nearly complete at 80 percent, slightly ahead of the five-year average. However, the spring wheat harvest is lagging, with only 1 percent harvested compared to the 3 percent average. The Brugler 500 Index reports spring wheat crop conditions weakening to 332, signaling potential yield challenges despite modest improvements in states like Minnesota.
• The European Union is facing a notable contraction in soft wheat exports, which have declined to 803,256 metric tons in late July from 2.25 million metric tons during the same period last year. This sharp drop raises concerns about the EU’s export competitiveness and its broader impact on global wheat dynamics.
• Russia's wheat prices remain stable, with 12.5 percent protein wheat holding at $240 per ton. The removal of export duties on wheat and meslin is intended to support exports, while the floating duty policy stabilizes domestic prices. However, July export forecasts were revised downward from 2.4 million to 2.1 million tons, reflecting weaker-than-expected market performance.
• Indonesia has intensified its reliance on U.S. wheat imports as part of a reciprocal trade agreement reducing tariffs on Indonesian goods. Apptindo’s commitment to annually purchase 1 million metric tons of U.S. wheat from 2026 to 2030 underlines this growing dependency and strategic bilateral alignment.
• Australia’s wheat outlook is cautiously optimistic. Although the 2025–2026 season forecast has been revised downward to 31 million tons due to earlier soil moisture deficits, favorable July rains have improved prospects. Higher wheat exports are expected, supported by substantial carryover stocks.
• Canada anticipates a slight increase in wheat production to 35.15 million tons despite yield concerns in Saskatchewan and Alberta due to adverse weather. Although international demand remains strong, ongoing uncertainties surrounding global trade and tariff policies could threaten export potential and overall market stability.

This episode presents a comprehensive overview of the global maize market as of August 3, 2025.

• In the United States, corn acreage has expanded to 95.2 million acres, a 5.1 percent increase from last year and the third-largest area since 1944. While this initially indicated strong production potential, flooding has reduced harvestable acreage to 86.8 million acres. Nevertheless, production is forecasted at 398.9 million tons. Disease vigilance remains crucial, particularly in areas like Indiana facing tar spot infections. Sustainability initiatives are gaining traction, with collaborations like those between PepsiCo, Cargill, and Iowa farmers aiming to implement regenerative practices on over 240,000 acres. However, the industry is navigating upcoming tariffs up to 25 percent on exports to countries such as Japan, South Korea, and Thailand, potentially redirecting trade flows to South American suppliers.
• Brazil’s corn production for 2025–2026 is estimated at 131.9 million tons, with 104.5 million tons from the safrinha crop. Despite high output, export growth is hindered by logistical issues, delayed harvests due to persistent rain, and quality degradation from June frosts. Domestic interest in corn ethanol, fueled by blending mandates, adds a new layer to demand, though stagnant domestic prices and port congestion have slowed exports.
• Argentina’s corn sector is marked by volatility. Policymakers reversed a planned increase in export duties after backlash, reinstating the 9.5 percent rate. The country is also preparing its first corn shipment to China since 2023, signaling potential market diversification. However, ongoing policy uncertainty undermines producer confidence and market predictability.
• Globally, maize production is expected to reach record levels, driven by strong outputs from the United States, Brazil, Ukraine, and Argentina. Yet, geopolitical tensions, such as U.S. tariffs on Brazilian corn, and regional challenges, including Ukraine’s drought and Argentina’s inconsistent policies, continue to affect the market. Meanwhile, demand is being reshaped by sustainability goals and ethanol initiatives, such as India’s E30 gasoline policy and Brazil’s corn-based biofuel strategy. These developments highlight the influence of environmental considerations and policy frameworks on the future of maize trade and consumption.

This episode provides a detailed analysis of the global wheat market as of July 27, 2025.

• In Russia, domestic wheat prices have declined, with Class IV wheat falling from 14,600 to 13,125 rubles per tonne. SoviCon forecasts total wheat output at 83.6 million tons, slightly above last year. Southern Russia remains a major contributor despite yield challenges due to adverse weather. Meanwhile, export prices for 12.5% protein wheat have risen to $240 per ton. Export duties remain unchanged, but adjustments are expected based on regional price shifts and new crop purchases.
• Indonesia is planning to double its wheat imports from the United States to 1 million metric tons annually over the next five years. This expansion is aligned with a 22% growth in wheat demand over the last decade and is set to benefit U.S. producers, particularly in Kansas. Kazakhstan's Akmola region is reporting favorable yields of 30–32 centners per hectare, with diversified planting strategies supported by agricultural financing and equipment leasing programs.
• Globally, wheat market performance is mixed. U.S. futures in Chicago and Kansas City saw minor changes, while Minneapolis contracts declined. Export sales for the week ending July 17 reached 12,179 metric tons. France is projecting a 33.4 million ton wheat harvest, up 30% from the previous year but still under the seven-year average. The French Ministry of Agriculture estimates slightly lower output at 32.6 million tons.
• In Brazil's Paraná state, wheat acreage dropped by 27% due to frost and water shortages, affecting potential yields. Pest and disease risks remain due to weather variability. Germany, however, is forecasting a 17% increase in wheat production to 21.56 million tons, supported by favorable weather, although barley and corn outputs may decline.
• Trade patterns are shifting notably. Russian wheat exports to China have plummeted nineteen-fold due to rising competition from Canada and Australia. In contrast, South Korea has increased its imports from Russia, even as overall wheat imports are down, reflecting regional realignments in trade.

This episode offers an in-depth review of the global maize market as of July 27, 2025.

• Brazil’s maize market is facing structural pressures following the imposition of a 50% tariff tied to broader geopolitical tensions, although U.S. export flows remain unaffected. Currency volatility and domestic price adjustments are key outcomes. Harvest progress is rapid, especially in Mato Grosso, but storage capacity is strained due to overlapping soybean stock. Despite these challenges, Brazil is well-positioned for exports, with 9 million tons slated for international shipment. Conab’s revised forecast pegs 2025 production at 131.9 million tons, though infrastructure limitations continue to hinder export efficiency.
• Ukraine’s export activity remains strong, led by Turkey with imports of 5.5 million tons in the 2024–2025 season. Other major European importers include Italy, Spain, and the Netherlands, reinforcing Ukraine’s strategic role in the regional maize supply chain. High demand for older crop volumes is pushing prices upward, even as Ukraine maintains operational resilience.
• In the United States, strong futures performance on the Chicago Board of Trade is supported by vigorous export data, including major sales to South Korea and 135,000 tons to China. Russia is also expanding its export reach, setting new sales records to China and outpacing competitors like Ukraine and Myanmar. South Korea is actively building its reserves through strategic acquisitions, highlighting maize's importance in national food security planning.
• South Africa anticipates a rise in production to 16 million tons for 2025–2026, driven by favorable weather and efficient harvests. This supports both domestic consumption and renewed export growth to Asia. Meanwhile, India is shifting agricultural focus toward maize due to its growing role in ethanol production and more favorable market conditions than soybean or cotton. This strategic reorientation could reshape regional crop balances.

This episode presents a global snapshot of the wheat market as of July 20, 2025.

• Russia is forecast to produce 81.7 million tons of wheat in the 2025–2026 agricultural year, with 43 million tons slated for export. Despite encountering delayed harvests and localized yield reductions, Russia’s strong overall supply continues to stabilize global wheat prices. By season’s end, Russian reserves are expected to stand at approximately 9.4 million tons.
• The European Union is projected to harvest 137.2 million tons of wheat. While overall output remains robust, export capacity is slightly reduced, with 32 million tons expected for export—down by 1 million tons from the prior year. This minor contraction does not significantly affect the region's substantial production figures.
• In Ukraine, wheat production is estimated at 25.1 million tons, with exports projected at 16 million tons. Additionally, Ukraine is expected to produce 28.6 million tons of corn and export 23.9 million tons, reinforcing the country’s strong regional export presence.
• Kazakhstan's wheat production forecast stands at 15 million tons, with exports of approximately 9.9 million tons, reflecting continued stability in its grain market.
• In contrast, Brazil anticipates a wheat production drop to 7.81 million tons, driven by decreased planting area and unfavorable weather conditions. This shortfall may lead to increased wheat imports to meet domestic needs, positioning Brazil differently amid otherwise stable global supply patterns.
• Overall, the episode highlights how variations in regional output and trade strategies are influencing the global wheat market. While Russia, the EU, and Ukraine maintain strong production and export momentum, countries like Brazil face emerging supply challenges that could shift trade flows and impact pricing.

This episode provides a global overview of the maize market as of July 20, 2025.

• Kazakhstan projects strong corn yields for 2025, with several regions, including Eskeldi, Karatal, Almaty, and Turkestan, expected to exceed long-term averages. The positive outlook is supported by sufficient moisture reserves meeting approximately 80 percent of irrigation needs. However, localized concerns remain due to temperature fluctuations and reduced precipitation during key sowing periods.
• Iran has increased its corn imports from Russia, raising Russia’s market share to 64 percent by June 2025, up from 58 percent the previous year. This allowed Iran to surpass Turkey in regional corn imports. The trend reflects broader shifts in export routes, with fewer shipments via the Black Sea and a growing reliance on the Caspian Sea.
• Russia’s corn yield for 2025 is forecast at 14.5 million tons. The southern region, despite drought concerns, expects a harvest increase to 5.2 million tons, while the central region may experience a slight drop to 6.5 million tons. Export patterns continue to adjust away from Black Sea channels.
• In the United States, corn production is projected to fall below 400 million tons, although this is partly balanced by increased export activity. Brazil faces setbacks due to delayed offseason harvests, which significantly affected early July export volumes. Nevertheless, recovery signs are emerging, particularly in northern ports, bolstered by renewed global trade interest.
• On the global stage, the maize market is shaped by the combined forces of climate variability, international trade realignments, and domestic agricultural policies. The dynamic interplay among major producers like the United States, Brazil, and Russia, along with rising importers like Iran, continues to redefine global supply and pricing conditions.

This episode provides a global overview of the maize market as of July 13, 2025.

• In Ukraine, maize prices are dropping at the close of the season due to waning demand and a market shift toward wheat. Exports have underperformed, totaling only 85,000 tonnes, while new season prices are forecast between $200 and $202 per ton. Analysts warn that sales may stall if prices dip below $200. Drought conditions are also casting doubt on yield forecasts for the upcoming season.
• The U.S. maize market remains stable, though demand is fluctuating. A recent 110,000-ton export order—mainly to Mexico and Japan—was reported by the USDA. Favorable weather is supporting crop development, although localized droughts present some yield risk.
• Brazil's maize production is projected to rise to nearly 132 million metric tons, driven by strong second-crop output. Despite reduced demand from China and logistical issues, Brazil is looking to expand exports to alternative markets such as Iran and Egypt.
• Tunisia has procured 50,000 metric tons through an international tender, aimed at reinforcing national reserves. Though higher in cost, the selected bids met strict buyer specifications.
• China is facing a maize shortage, prompting a shift toward wheat for animal feed. Monthly maize imports have not exceeded 500,000 tons for nearly a year, potentially altering global demand forecasts and affecting USDA outlooks.
• In Argentina, maize is currently preferred over soybeans, supported by favorable pricing and taxation policies. While global prices remain low, local economic factors are aiding maize’s profitability.
• India is grappling with low maize yields, except in high-output regions like West Bengal. The government aims to expand cultivation to meet growing domestic demand driven by the poultry sector and ethanol production.

This episode offers a comprehensive update on the global wheat market as of July 13, 2025.

• In Russia’s Tambov region, wheat harvesting began on July 10 across the Munchkapski and Uvarovsky districts. Early yields are strong at 45.3 centners per hectare, reflecting a 45 percent increase over last year. Favorable weather conditions suggest a potentially high-yield season across the planned 1.9 million hectares. In the Kuban-Krasnodar territory, despite the recent removal of wheat export duties, export volumes are expected to remain stable. However, the region has seen a notable drop in port exports—down to 6 million tons in the first three months of 2025 from 13 million the year before.
• Turkmenistan completed its harvest with 1.407 million tons, bolstered by agricultural reforms and modernization, including the adoption of new wheat varieties and technologies. In contrast, Turkey is facing a 15 percent production decline due to dry weather, lowering output to 16.3 million tons. This shortfall is expected to drive wheat imports up to 10.3 million tons for the 2025–26 season, from 3.2 million tons previously. Barley production is also forecast to fall sharply by 28 percent.
• Ukraine anticipates a slight decline in wheat production, with projections between 20 and 22 million tons, attributed to weather delays and ongoing conflict. Despite the challenges, the country is expected to meet its domestic demand of 6 million tons. Field access and crop conditions remain vulnerable in conflict-affected areas.
• These developments underscore the varying conditions shaping global wheat dynamics, from promising yields in parts of Russia to import-driven recovery strategies in Turkey, all within a backdrop of fluctuating weather patterns and geopolitical risks

This episode presents a comprehensive update on the global wheat market as of July 6, 2025.

• Ukraine has commenced its winter wheat harvest in Odessa, Mykolaiv, and Kherson, reporting low early yields of around 2.1 to 2.15 tons per hectare. There is cautious optimism for improved output contingent on stable weather. Wheat prices, currently at $210 per ton, are expected to climb to $230–$240 by fall, and potentially reach $250–$260 per ton by early 2026. This forecast is bolstered by challenges in other major exporting countries, including the United States.
• In Russia, the Ministry of Agriculture forecasts a total grain harvest of 135 million tons, with wheat comprising approximately 90 million tons. However, heavy rainfall in key regions has delayed harvesting, while drought in southern areas like Rostov has impacted yields. Russia has already used 83% of its wheat export quota, constrained by declining harvest volumes and noncompetitive international prices.
• Kazakhstan is on track for a record 11.45 million tons of wheat and flour exports this year, supported by a 41% year-over-year rise in exports over the past nine months. This growth has been driven by increased supplies of wheat and feed meal. Conversely, a sharp drop in imports from Afghanistan and Turkmenistan signals shifting trade dynamics.
• Southern Brazil is experiencing an oversupply, delaying wheat planting in regions such as Rio Grande do Sul, where only 40% of the planned area has been sown. Despite this, market prices remain low but stable due to ample supply. Selective purchasing in Santa Catarina, driven by quality preferences, is also shaping market behavior.
• China faces a significant production shortfall, with the wheat harvest projected to be the lowest since 2018 due to drought and extreme heat in provinces like Shanxi and Guangxi. This situation has led to major crop losses and heightened concerns about national food security.
• In contrast, Serbia anticipates a strong wheat harvest of 3.605 million tons, marking a 24.3% increase over last year. This growth reflects enhanced yields and expanded cultivation, suggesting positive momentum in the country's agricultural development.