Global Maize Market Summary

• Brazil's maize market is under growing domestic demand pressure. Corn ethanol production reached 9,190,000,000 liters in the 2025/26 harvest season, representing 27.8% of total national ethanol output and a 12.26% year-on-year increase in maize-based processing. This growth has occurred against a backdrop of a 3.56% contraction in overall national ethanol output due to reduced sugarcane availability. The E30 fuel blend mandate, implemented in mid-2025, is further lifting anhydrous ethanol demand, with domestic sales growing 7.08%. Total maize consumption of 141,100,000 tons now exceeds the national harvest of 139,570,000 tons, compressing the stocks-to-use ratio to 13%, well below the historical average of 19%.
• Turkey has utilized 580,500 tons of a 3,000,000 ton concessional import quota (carrying a 5% tariff, versus 100% to 130% outside the quota) available through July 31, 2025, leaving the bulk of the allocation unused. The restrained pace of imports ahead of a projected domestic harvest of 7,900,000 tons for 2025 suggests deliberate inventory management, with reduced import dependency expected once the domestic crop becomes available.
• Malaysia's maize demand for 2026/27 is projected at 4,150,000 tons, almost entirely met through imports of approximately 4,120,000 tons, primarily sourced from Argentina, Brazil, and the United States. Feed demand from a growing poultry sector is the principal driver, underscoring Malaysia's near-total reliance on foreign supply.
• Ukraine is affirming its position as a key European maize supplier, with EU countries increasing purchases and prices settling around USD 225 to USD 226 per ton. Planted area is rising modestly to 500,000 hectares, though final output remains sensitive to weather conditions through the growing season.
• Romania is facing a 19% reduction in maize planted area for 2026, falling to 1,600,000 hectares due to rising input costs and unfavorable moisture conditions. The contraction poses a risk to European supply adequacy and may increase the EU's dependence on imports if domestic yields fall short of demand requirements.

Global Wheat Market Summary

• Ethiopia recorded a significant production increase in 2025, reaching 33,100,000 tons, up from 28,000,000 tons the prior year, supported by an expanded cultivated area exceeding 8,000,000 hectares. The government's food sovereignty agenda is targeting a longer-term output level of 50,000,000 tons, with mechanization and technology adoption central to achieving that goal. Cross-border trade development with South Sudan and regional infrastructure improvements are also underway. In the global context, however, Ethiopia's volumes remain modest.
• Russia's wheat exports through Krasnodar ports reached 10,700,000 tons by early May 2026, serving 33 countries, supported by expanded export quotas and zeroed export duties. Domestically, high fertilizer costs and declining wheat prices are compressing producer margins and reducing spring wheat planting intentions. Adverse weather affecting Siberian sowing adds further risk to Russia's future export capacity.
• In the United States, planting pace had recovered to align with historical averages by early May following earlier weather delays. Dryness in western North Dakota remains a concern, while moisture conditions in other Northern Plains areas are adequate. Yield prospects for hard red spring wheat will depend materially on rainfall patterns in the coming weeks.
• Canada is projecting a 10% decline in 2026/27 wheat production to 36,200,000 tons, with exports expected to ease to 28,500,000 tons. The reduction reflects a strategic rotation toward soybeans and canola driven by higher economic returns and the presence of substantial existing wheat inventories. A strengthening Canadian dollar adds a further competitiveness headwind for exports.
• The United Kingdom is forecasting a production recovery to 13,500,000 tons for the current marketing year, supported by increased harvested area and favorable yields. Feed and residual demand has declined, while flour milling consumption remains stable. Global input cost dynamics continue to influence domestic market conditions.
• India has resumed wheat exports for the first time in four years, with an initial shipment to the UAE under a new 5,000,000 ton export quota. Domestic procurement is complicated by grain quality concerns that are affecting the build-up of export-grade reserves, and pricing disparities relative to Russia and Australia present a competitiveness challenge as India attempts to re-establish its presence in international markets.

Global Wheat Market Summary

• In the United States, winter wheat crop conditions are at historically low levels, with hard red winter wheat states including Nebraska, Montana, and Kansas facing severe drought stress. The accelerated pace of crop heading is narrowing the remaining recovery window. Cumulative wheat exports are down 24.7% year on year, with competition from the European Union a primary contributing factor. A recent Saudi Arabian procurement of 985,000 metric tons provides some near-term demand support, though it is unlikely to fully offset the broader export shortfall.
• Australia's 2026/27 wheat production is forecast to fall to 29,000,000 tons, driven by reduced planted area as farmers shift toward less nitrogen-intensive crops in response to soaring fertilizer costs. The decline raises questions about Australia's competitive standing in Indonesian import markets, where new US trade agreements are improving American wheat's accessibility.
• Argentina's 2026/27 wheat output is projected at 20,700,000 tons, constrained by limited mineral fertilizer application and narrowing profit margins. The reduction is expected to diminish Argentina's presence in global export markets and contribute to tighter overall supply dynamics.
• Russia's 2026/27 production is forecast in the range of 35,010,000 to 36,160,000 tons, modestly below the prior year but within normal historical parameters. Russia retains its strategic role as a dominant global wheat supplier, and the forecast does not suggest a material disruption to its export capacity.
• Canada is also projecting a production decline, attributed to a reduction in harvested wheat area as growers rotate toward soybeans and barley. Export competitiveness will additionally be shaped by currency movements, with the Canadian dollar's exchange rate influencing pricing relative to competing origins.

Global Maize Market Summary

• US corn exports are running 30.64% above the prior year, reaching 53,541,000 metric tons since September 1, supported by favorable global grain prices and demand from both established and emerging markets. Planting progress stands at 25% as of April 27, six percentage points ahead of the five-year average, with strong early completion in Indiana, Ohio, Illinois, and Nebraska reducing weather risk and pointing to potentially larger planted areas. July 2026 CBOT corn futures have recovered from mid-April lows, with technical support holding near the 50-period and 200-period simple moving averages. However, dry conditions and suboptimal temperatures in Illinois and Indiana are creating germination risk at a critical crop establishment window, warranting close monitoring.
• Brazil's late-planted safrinha crop is projected at 132,000,000 to 140,300,000 tons but is contending with minor aphid pressure and moisture deficits requiring timely agronomic intervention. April exports were strong, driven by elevated domestic ethanol demand and efforts to offset the loss of the Iranian market.
• Argentina has revised its 2025/26 maize production estimate upward to 61,000,000 tons, a meaningful upgrade given earlier drought concerns. Competitive FOB values and reduced export duties are enhancing Argentina's global market positioning, though harvest progress stands at only 26.5%, leaving execution risk in the near term.
• In Ukraine, maize prices have risen on the back of heightened European and Turkish demand alongside planting delays. Despite logistical constraints, export potential for the season is forecast at 6,000,000 to 8,000,000 tons, underpinned by firmer export prices.
• South Africa's maize production forecast has reached a record 16,800,000 tons, reflecting solid year-on-year growth and reinforcing the country's position as a regional export leader. Diesel rationing poses a risk to harvest efficiency and export logistics, with potential implications for the timeliness of market supply.
• In France, a precision seeding trial has demonstrated a potential 15% yield improvement, though its narrow scope limits near-term market relevance. The broader French maize sector continues to be shaped primarily by strategic crop allocation decisions in response to elevated fertilizer costs.

Global Wheat Market Weekly Summary

• Russia's wheat exports to Turkey surged to nearly 1,000,000 tons in the first quarter of 2026, up from just 98,700 tons a year prior, while exports to Egypt rose from 2,100,000 to 2,800,000 tons over the same period. The Black Sea corridor remains central to managing Russia's projected national harvest of 87,600,000 tons, with geographic proximity to Middle East and North Africa markets providing freight cost efficiencies amid rising regional sea freight rates. Ongoing export duties and divergent import regulations around GMO content and pesticide residues continue to constrain shipment efficiency, requiring rigorous pre-shipment quality controls.
• The United States arranged imports of 120,000 tons of Polish milling wheat in April 2026, motivated by domestic price pressures and more competitive offshore costs. With national production at 54,000,000 tons and ending stocks of approximately 25,330,000 tons, East Coast processors are utilizing transatlantic arbitrage to bypass elevated internal freight charges on domestically sourced grain. While modest relative to overall production volumes, the move reflects a broader strategic adaptation to global pricing differentials and competitive pressure from lower cost origins.

Global Maize Market Weekly Summary

• Sri Lanka's government is considering higher import duties on feed maize to boost budget revenues. While the country's global market footprint is limited, the local poultry sector faces the most direct consequences, with rising tariffs and escalating feed additive costs squeezing margins against a backdrop of only minimal chicken meat price increases.
• Brazil's safrinha (second crop) planting is nearly complete, with current rainfall supporting favorable conditions. Rising domestic ethanol production is absorbing a growing share of supply, which is curtailing available export volumes. Potential water shortages later in the season remain a watch point for yield forecasts. Brazil continues to serve as a key supplier to North African and Asian markets.
• In the United States, the 2026/27 planting season is seeing a shift toward soybeans in some states, driven by prohibitive nitrogen fertilizer costs. Severe soil moisture deficits as of mid-April are adding further operational pressure, though robust carryover stocks from the previous harvest provide a near-term buffer against supply disruption.
• Ukraine's maize export program is facing significant logistical bottlenecks at port terminals, delaying shipment schedules and risking prolonged inventory carryovers. With a large share of exports directed toward non-EU Mediterranean and Middle Eastern markets, these delays carry the potential to tighten global supply availability and exert upward pressure on international maize prices.

Global Wheat Market Weekly Summary

• Kazakhstan's wheat stocks stood at 10.8 million tons as of 1 April 2026, with the bulk held in northern regions including Akmola, Kostanay, and North Kazakhstan, and approximately 3.5 million tons stored in commercial elevators. An import ban on Russian grain introduced on 21 March has created logistical complications, with a portion of grain remaining isolated within elevator networks. Despite this, Kazakhstan exported around 875,000 tons in January and is forecasting total marketing year exports of between 10 and 10.5 million tons for 2025/26, with effective distribution policy identified as critical to balancing domestic supply against export commitments.
• India's 2026 wheat procurement season is underway, with daily regional arrivals reaching 30,562 metric tons by mid-April against a government minimum support price of INR 2,585 per quintal. National production is estimated at 113.5 million tons, below initial expectations, contributing to tighter domestic supply. Delayed lifting at mandis is creating logistical bottlenecks that risk complicating procurement efficiency.
• Pakistan's Rabi 2025/26 wheat harvest has commenced, with output projected at 29.31 million tons. Weather challenges and procurement center inefficiencies pose risks to harvest and distribution cycles, while the country's ongoing reliance on wheat imports remains a structural feature of its supply balance.
• In the United States, drought conditions across Kansas and Oklahoma are weighing on hard red winter wheat, increasing yield loss risks. National stocks of 25.3 million tons provide a near-term buffer, though sustained adverse weather could challenge coverage of new crop deficits.
• Russia exported 1.1 million tons in early April following adjustments to export duties and quotas, reflecting efforts to strengthen its global market presence. Domestic pricing pressures and port logistics remain constraints that will determine whether Russia can maintain this export pace through the remainder of the 2026 marketing year.

Global Wheat Market Weekly Summary

• Russian wheat exports from Krasnodar territory ports rose 56% in 2026, reaching 7,800,000 tons, with Egypt and Turkey the primary buyers. Egypt alone accounted for 2,800,000 tons of that volume. The export surge followed the conclusion of a zero-duty export period, with a duty of 515.6 rubles per ton now reinstated. Russia's freight cost advantage to Middle Eastern and African markets remains a structural competitive strength. However, a narrowing price gap between Russian and European wheat could erode that advantage over time, particularly if global freight costs continue to rise.
• Ethiopia's wheat production forecast for 2026/27 stands at 7,000,000 tons, an improvement on prior levels but still materially short of the country's 8,200,000 ton consumption requirement. As a result, Ethiopia is projected to import 1,400,000 tons, sourced predominantly from the Black Sea region. The government is investing in irrigation expansion and commercial farming development to close the supply gap over time, but elevated fertilizer costs and ongoing supply chain disruptions present significant near-term obstacles. The milling industry's dependence on a blend of domestic and imported wheat further underscores the structural nature of Ethiopia's import reliance and its sensitivity to international market conditions.

Global Maize Market Weekly Summary

• Ukraine's maize production for 2025/26 remains at 30,700,000 tons, with exports held steady at 22,000,000 tons, representing approximately 71% of total output. Trade flows are being redirected as an EU import cap of 3,200,000 tons pushes excess volumes toward Mediterranean and Middle Eastern markets. Rising urea and ammonia prices are increasing input costs for smaller producers, introducing risk to future planting cycles and adding financial strain across the sector.
• Argentina's maize production forecast for the new crop harvest has been raised to 67,000,000 tons, a figure 27% above the previous national record. The increase is driven by an expanded sown area of 10,200,000 hectares, with farmers favoring maize over soybeans this season. Relatively lower export duties and competitive free-on-board pricing are reinforcing Argentina's strong standing in global export markets, making this record crop particularly significant for international trade flows.
• Brazil's 2026/27 maize output is forecast at 136,000,000 tons, though domestic consumption is set at 96,300,000 tons, reflecting the growing influence of the ethanol sector on acreage allocation. The expansion of ethanol production is tightening the gap between supply and domestic demand, which may constrain Brazil's ability to maintain high export volumes despite the sizeable harvest. Logistical and storage limitations present further challenges that could cap export capabilities regardless of production growth.
• The U.S. maize production forecast for 2025/26 remains unchanged at 432,340,000 tons, with exports steady at 83,820,000 tons and ending stocks constant at 54,000,000 tons. Domestic conditions are stable with no immediate production risks, preserving the country's established position in global maize markets. Policy developments and any shifts in domestic market conditions will be worth monitoring for their potential influence on future outputs.

Global Maize Market Weekly Summary

• The global maize market is navigating a broadly bearish supply environment, with elevated stock levels in the United States, tightening domestic availability in Brazil, and adaptive export strategies from Ukraine and South Africa each contributing to a complex and shifting trade picture.
• In the United States, corn planting intentions for 2026 fell to 95,338,000 acres, with rising fertilizer and fuel costs driven by geopolitical tensions cited as the primary deterrent. Stocks stood at 9,024,000,000 bushels as of March 1, raising concerns about excess supply. Export demand from Mexico, Japan, and South Korea provided some support, and domestic ethanol consumption showed modest growth, but neither was sufficient to meaningfully offset the surplus or shift prevailing bearish market sentiment.
• Brazil's 2025/26 safrinha corn crop is projected at 135,700,000 metric tons, with both reduced planted area and weather-related risks weighing on the outlook. Strong domestic ethanol demand is competing directly with export availability, with anticipated export volumes set at 42,000,000 metric tons. Despite improved first-crop forecasts, overall national supply remains tight given the scale of internal consumption.
• Ukraine posted maize exports of 2,590,000 metric tons in March 2026, a 14% year-on-year increase. With European Union import caps constraining traditional trade routes, Ukraine has diversified its export destinations toward the Middle East and North Africa, demonstrating an effective capacity to adapt to logistical and regulatory barriers while sustaining its global market presence.
• South Africa is projecting maize production of 16,100,000 metric tons for the 2026/27 season, with reduced export volumes anticipated as a result of expected production declines and steady local demand. Rising input costs, particularly for nitrogen-based fertilizers, alongside potential diesel supply constraints, present risks to future planting and harvesting cycles. Adequate storage capacity and a relatively light regulatory environment offer some degree of domestic market resilience in the near term.