This episode provides a comprehensive overview of recent trends in the global walnut market.

• In October 2025, U.S. walnut shipments rose significantly to £158 million, an 8.94 percent increase compared to the same month in 2024. This growth was primarily fueled by a surge in export demand, which reached £120 million, while domestic shipments saw a modest 2 percent rise to £38 million. Since the start of the season, total shipments have reached £421 million, up 10 percent from the previous year.
• The European market remained a key importer with a 5 percent volume increase to £102 million, while Middle East imports declined slightly by 0.7 percent to £3 million. By the end of October, sales commitments climbed to £467 million, an 11 percent year-over-year increase, supported by a 15 percent monthly rise in new sales.
• Crop receipts for October stood at 1.123 billion pounds, reflecting a stable harvest trend compared to the previous year's £1 billion. Market sentiment remains positive, driven by robust export growth and successful penetration into new markets, particularly in Southeast Asia, where demand from countries like Thailand has strengthened.
• Despite this optimism, stakeholders are monitoring potential risks, including geopolitical tensions and input cost volatility that could affect pricing strategies. U.S. walnut exports are making notable inroads into emerging markets, offsetting slowdowns in traditional regions. Continued focus on these new opportunities is seen as essential for sustaining global competitiveness.
• Overall, the walnut market presents a narrative of strong export-driven expansion with cautious strategic planning to manage supply chain and logistic challenges.

This episode presents a detailed snapshot of the global nuts market as of November 16, 2025.

• From January to August 2025, Azerbaijan's cashew imports surged by 28 percent in volume and 57 percent in value, totaling 282 tons worth $2.3 million. Vietnam dominated supply, contributing 229 tons valued at $1.9 million, while India’s exports to Azerbaijan declined by 44 percent in value. New trade links with Benin and Ghana have emerged, marking a significant shift after 14 years of absence from Azerbaijan’s supplier list.
• Vietnam, a top global cashew kernel exporter, continues to face operational pressures. Despite importing nearly $4 billion worth of raw cashews—much from Cambodia—to manage raw material costs, rising input prices and a shift in processing activity toward Africa threaten efficiency and raise the risk of operational losses and factory closures without strategic adjustments.
• In Ghana, the cashew sector shows strong growth potential, with revenue projections exceeding $660 million annually through enhanced regulation and infrastructure. The Tree Crops Development Authority is working to stabilize prices, increase local processing, and reduce raw exports, currently valued at about $300 million, with an ambition to match regional leaders like Côte d'Ivoire and Nigeria.
• Tanzania is poised for a record cashew harvest of 700,000 tons, up from 528,000 tons the previous year. Over 45 companies will engage in transparent, quality-assured online auctions. Most of Tanzania’s raw cashews are exported for processing in Vietnam and India, forming a vital part of the country's agricultural exports.
• In Iran, Kermanshah province expects a 2025 pistachio yield of around 250 tons. The region is expanding cultivation, focusing on water-efficient varieties such as Akhburi and Ahmad Agay, aligning with sustainability goals and regional development plans.
• Kenya has announced a temporary halt to macadamia trading from December 1, 2025, to February 15, 2026, aiming to protect crop maturity and uphold export quality. Meanwhile, Georgia’s hazelnut sector is under threat from pests and disease, potentially losing up to 30 percent of the crop. Investment in research and pest control is critical to preserving industry viability.

This episode offers a detailed look at the global nuts market as of November 9, 2025.

• In Nigeria, Kogi State is pursuing a bold plan to raise cashew production to 150,000 metric tons by 2027. This effort is led by the state’s Commodity Exchange Export Promotion and Marketing Development Agency (COSIPA) and includes the replacement of old trees with 15 million hybrid cashew trees over three years. These hybrids are known for high kernel recovery and will be sun-dried locally to meet international quality standards. The program includes financial support, training, and market access for farmers, with the goal of boosting employment and export revenue. Additionally, talks with Vietnamese investors are underway to establish processing facilities in Kogi, opening direct export channels to markets such as the United States, Germany, Japan, and the UAE.
• Ghana’s cashew sector also shows high potential, with the capacity to contribute over $660 million annually to the national economy if regulatory and processing improvements are implemented. The sector supports around 500,000 jobs but currently faces issues including under-regulation, price instability, and limited value-added processing. The Tree Crops Development Authority is addressing these gaps through new licensing systems and infrastructure expansion.
• Vietnam remains a global leader in cashew processing, importing over $4 billion worth of raw nuts in the first ten months of 2024. The country sources up to 90% of its supply from countries like Cambodia and several West African nations. Despite rising input costs that are squeezing margins, Vietnam is working to strengthen its national cashew brand by promoting domestic cultivation and adopting more advanced processing techniques.
• A recent memorandum of understanding between Nigeria and Vietnam reflects a significant step in bilateral cooperation. The agreement focuses on technology transfer and deeper trade integration, aligning Nigeria’s raw output with Vietnam’s processing strengths to benefit both economies. Meanwhile, global supply disruptions, particularly in Tanzania, are straining availability and driving prices higher. Political instability in the region has disrupted exports, creating challenges for major processors in India and Vietnam, who are now paying premiums to source from more stable suppliers like Cambodia.

Overview:
In this episode, we examine the cashew sector in Côte d’Ivoire, a country that has emerged as the world’s largest producer of raw cashew nuts. Despite its production dominance, Ivory Coast struggles to scale local processing—a structural gap that threatens both national revenue growth and broader economic resilience. This episode offers a case study in value-chain imbalance, policy challenges, and global commodity dynamics.

Key Discussion Themes:

• Rapid Growth in Raw Cashew Production
  • Côte d’Ivoire's cashew output has tripled since 2011, reaching 1.2 million metric tons by 2023
  • Cashews have become the country's second-largest agricultural export after cocoa
  • The industry supports over 250,000 smallholder farmers, primarily in the north
• The Value-Addition Gap
  • Despite increased production, less than 10% of cashews were processed locally as of early 2020s
  • Government goals aimed to raise local processing to 50% by 2025 through subsidies, tax incentives, and infrastructure investment
• Two-Phase Industry Crisis (2020–2023)
  • Phase 1: Global buyers from Asia outbid local processors, acquiring over 80% of raw output
  • Phase 2: A downturn in global demand led to falling prices, market oversupply, and factory shutdowns
  • Result: At least eight major local processors went bankrupt, with thousands of job losses
• Structural and Competitive Disadvantages
  • Local processors face financing constraints, higher operational costs, and raw material shortages
  • Competing with well-capitalized, efficient processors in Vietnam and India remains a major hurdle
  • Government subsidies and support have not closed the competitive gap
• Socioeconomic Impact
  • Sharp job losses, especially affecting low-income workers in northern regions
  • Farmers face price instability and market exclusion
  • Declining tax revenues and missed industrial development opportunities for the state
• Global Market Dynamics
  • Raw cashew exports continue to flow heavily toward Asia for processing
  • Vietnam remains the dominant global processor, capturing the bulk of value-added exports
  • The current imbalance entrenches Africa’s role as a raw supplier in global agri-trade
• Forward-Looking Strategies and Policy Considerations
  • Urgent need for sustainable processing infrastructure and supply chain integration in Côte d’Ivoire
  • Potential for foreign direct investment, fairer trade terms, and international development support
  • Consideration of broader trade reforms, export credit guarantees, and consumer-driven sourcing changes

Overview:
In this episode, we examine the global cashew supply chain as a case study in supply chain vulnerability, rising commodity risk, and international market exposure. What begins as a casual observation about a common snack quickly evolves into a comprehensive analysis of the intersecting forces—geopolitical, logistical, climatic, and contractual—impacting this $7B+ industry.

Key Discussion Points:

• Cashew Ubiquity and Market Relevance
  • Cashews as a high-demand input in snacks, dairy alternatives, and culinary products
  • Expanding use across food sectors from plant-based milks to premium processed goods
• Geopolitical Pressures on Freight & Trade Routes
  • Impact of the Russia-Ukraine war and Israel-Gaza crisis on maritime logistics
  • Rerouting of vessels away from the Suez Canal, increasing lead times and costs
• Logistical Bottlenecks and Infrastructure Deficiencies
  • Chronic congestion at Nigerian and Vietnamese ports
  • Persistent global container shortages and port inefficiencies post-COVID
• Volatile Contract Enforcement and Supply Reliability
  • Increasing breach of raw nut contracts in West Africa due to price volatility
  • Financial implications for processors reliant on just-in-time supply models
• Climate Variability and Agricultural Impact
  • Erratic weather patterns reducing yield quality and timing in key producing regions
  • Compound risks posed by nature in already stressed global systems
• Market Implications and Retail Consequences
  • Rising input costs and product shortages affecting downstream availability
  • Potential long-term consumer substitution toward more stable alternatives
• Strategic Responses from Industry Stakeholders
  • Vietnam’s efforts in supply diversification, backward integration, and contract enforcement
  • African nations’ push for local processing amid regulatory reform
  • Investment in resilient infrastructure and supply chain transparency
• Broader Implications for Global Agri-Trade
  • Lessons for other crops with similarly fragile value chains
  • Why cashews are a microcosm of larger global economic vulnerabilities

Conclusion: