CropGPT - Oils

Global Palm Oil Market Summary: September 13, 2026

• Malaysia: Futures fell again on September 9, 2026, with the benchmark November contract down RM15 to RM4,006.1 per ton. Analysts maintain a bullish long term view despite the dip, citing El Nino related production risks, while a weaker ringgit slightly boosts export appeal. Rising inventories remain a concern, with stocks at 2,630,000 tons potentially pressuring prices further.
• Indonesia: The B50 biodiesel mandate continues to absorb significant palm oil volumes, with 2026/27 production forecast at 47,200,000 tons. Biodiesel use is constraining export volumes and pressuring levy revenue. The EU SIPA agreement may boost trade, though tariff changes for crude palm oil remain uncertain. Prolonged dry conditions across 88% of estates risk lowering yields, compounding the supply impact of the biodiesel policy.
• India: Port congestion from heavy vegetable oil imports is delaying arrivals and potentially slowing purchases, with the price sensitive market continuing to prioritize minimal cost.
• China: Mixed price movements on the Dalian exchange reflect a continued focus on cost over certification, though RSPO membership has risen notably, signaling growing interest in sustainable sourcing.
• Global: Certified Sustainable Palm Oil sales reached 16,200,000 tons in 2025 (20% of supply), though an unutilized surplus persists as demand trails certified capacity. RSPO membership now spans 103 countries, with independent smallholders contributing marginally to global trade. Rising crude oil prices support palm oil's biodiesel appeal, while fluctuating CBOT soybean oil prices reflect broader cross market trends.

Global Soybean Market Summary: September 13, 2026

• United States: On track for a record 2026 harvest, with USDA's August report projecting around 4.065 billion bushels across 86,800,000 planted acres, though the upcoming report may lower yield estimates from 52.7 to 52.4 bushels per acre. Crop conditions are the weakest since 2023 (58% good to excellent, down from 65%), with notable declines in Kansas, Kentucky, and Minnesota, though maturation is ahead of average. July crush hit 221,900,000 bushels (up 8.16% year on year), with the 2026/27 crush projection at a record 74,800,000 tons. Export inspections were down 9.66% year on year, but forward bookings for 2026/27 are nearly double last year's pace. The US has become a net importer of soybean oil, with biofuel demand and EPA refinery exemption policy posing key risks, alongside notably long speculative positioning.
• China: Confirmed large 2026/27 purchases, with new crop sales exceeding 10,000,000 tons. August imports reached 12,140,000 tons (up 5.7% from July), with full year imports expected stable but longer term demand trending down to 95,500,000 tons. State purchases have met nearly half of a 25,000,000 ton bilateral commitment. Tight fourth quarter supply, limited Brazilian availability, and weak crush margins remain challenges, with port stocks at decade highs.
• Brazil: Record 2025/26 harvest at roughly 180,463,000 tons (Conab), with StoneX forecasting a slight further increase for 2026/27. Exports remain strong and on pace for record levels, though planting faces risks from weather and high costs in Mato Grosso, and waterlogging concerns elsewhere.
• Argentina: Planning a slight acreage increase for 2026/27 amid shifting crop preferences, despite a lowered current crop estimate. Paraguayan imports remain essential to sustain crushing as domestic supply falls short.
• India: 2026/27 output forecast cut due to erratic rains, reducing crushing and oil output, while demand for oil and feed rises. An import surge in beans and oil is compensating, supported by a narrowing soybean oil to palm oil premium.
• European Union: Production set to decline on weather, though impact is limited given the EU's small demand share. Imports of soybeans and meal are falling while canola imports rise, and the upcoming deforestation regulation poses a regulatory risk.
• Thailand: Deepening engagement with US soybeans, though Brazil remains the dominant supplier and major shifts are unlikely without price changes.
• Technicals: CBOT November soybeans settled around $10.14 per bushel, below early September highs after a rally from mid August lows, with cautiously bullish sentiment amid strong demand against ample global supply.

Global Palm Market Summary

• In Malaysia, palm oil inventories rose for the third consecutive month to 2.63 million tons in July. Crude palm oil production increased 9.4% to 1.79 million tons, while exports climbed 14.5% to 1.39 million tons. Despite growing stockpiles, prices are expected to remain supported by potential El Nino impacts, geopolitical uncertainty, firm demand from major importers such as India, and developments in competing vegetable oils and energy markets.
• Indonesia is undergoing a significant shift following the implementation of its B50 biodiesel mandate. The policy is expected to increase domestic palm oil consumption to an estimated 16.7 million to 18 million kiloliters annually, reducing the volume available for export. At the same time, the country's 2026/27 palm oil production forecast has been lowered to 47.2 million tons from 48 million tons, largely because of potential prolonged drought conditions associated with El Nino.
• Indonesian exports showed some recovery in June, reaching 2.75 million tons, although they remained below the previous year's levels. With biodiesel demand expected to expand further, domestic policy is likely to become an increasingly important factor in determining Indonesia's export capacity during the latter half of 2026.
• The sector is also beginning to adopt more advanced technology. Indonesian palm oil producers are integrating artificial intelligence across the value chain, from monitoring seedling growth to improving mill-gate quality controls. While these applications remain in their early stages and have not yet materially changed national production or market forecasts, they point to a broader effort to improve operational efficiency and manage challenges across the industry.
• Globally, palm oil prices remain sensitive to competing vegetable oil markets, particularly in China, as well as broader trade and energy market developments. Higher crude oil prices could improve palm oil's competitiveness as a biodiesel feedstock, while rising inventories and changing export performance continue to create volatility.

Global Soybean Market Summary

• US soybean production is now projected at 4.519 billion bushels, following an increase in expected yields and a 1.4 million-acre rise in planted area. Despite the potential for a substantial supply surplus and bearish market pressure, soybean prices have rallied as international demand remains firm.
• China continues to play a central role in supporting the market. Private export sales included a purchase of 461,000 metric tons through a state auction, highlighting proactive buying activity. However, China's overall soybean exports have declined 17.9% year on year, suggesting that current purchasing patterns may reflect strategic efforts to address supply requirements rather than a broad-based acceleration in demand.
• In Argentina, production estimates have been reduced to 49.5 million metric tons, offering additional upward support to global prices. At the same time, domestic soybean processing has increased by 4% from last year. Soybean oil exports reached a record level for June, driven primarily by shipments to India and Nepal, although first-half exports remained 3% below the previous year.
• Brief strikes caused logistical disruptions in Argentina, but operations recovered quickly following their resolution. The country's continued emphasis on processing and soybean product exports demonstrates resilience despite lower production expectations and logistical challenges.
• Overall, the soybean market is being shaped by the tension between expanding US supply and persistent international demand. China's strategic purchasing is helping offset bearish pressure from rising stocks and production, while Argentina's processing and export activity remains an important factor in global soybean and soybean product flows.

Global Sunflower Market Summary

• In Ukraine, new-crop sunflower seed prices have fallen to approximately 19,000 to 20,000 Ukrainian hryvnia per ton ($370 to $390 per ton), excluding VAT. Factory and export terminal closures in the south, combined with uncertainty around Black Sea port operations, are weighing on demand and limiting market activity. Trading in old-crop sunflower seed has nearly stalled, with only limited purchases reported at around 25,000 to 27,000 hryvnia per ton.
• Processors are also favoring cheaper rapeseed, which currently offers better margins. Rapeseed processing is expected to continue through October and November, with purchasing prices around 20,000 to 21,500 hryvnia per ton. Restrictions and logistical constraints on exports through Ukraine's western border are adding to transportation costs and further challenging the sunflower market.
• Ukrainian sunflower oil prices for delivery to the European Union have also declined to roughly $1,280 to $1,330 per ton. Increased availability of Ukrainian rapeseed oil, priced at around $1,200 to $1,250 per ton at the EU border, is contributing to the pressure. Despite export restrictions and logistical obstacles, European demand for Ukrainian agricultural products is expected to remain relatively firm.
• In Kazakhstan, investment in domestic oilseed processing is expanding. A new sunflower oil and mixed-feed facility in Makonchi, near the Chinese border, represents an investment of 7 billion tenge and will have capacity to produce up to 300 tons of sunflower oil and clean 500 tons of seeds per day. Planned railway and logistics infrastructure could further improve export potential and supply chain efficiency, supporting the region's broader agro-industrial development.
• Russia is also reshaping its sunflower export routes, shifting more shipments from traditional Black Sea routes toward the Caspian Sea. The Caspian Transit Corridor now handles an estimated 15% to 18% of Russian sunflower shipments, with key destinations including India, China, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, and Algeria. The alternative route increases delivery times by roughly 10 to 14 days and raises transportation costs by approximately 25% to 35%, highlighting infrastructure and capacity constraints across ports and railways.
• These logistical challenges are becoming increasingly important as Russia anticipates a record sunflower harvest of approximately 20.7 million tons for the 2026-27 season. The combination of larger supply, shifting export routes, changing destination markets, and competition from other oilseeds will remain central to sunflower market dynamics in the months ahead.

Global Canola Market Summary

• In Canada, ICE canola futures recovered after initial volatility, supported by active buying from crushers and exporters ahead of new-crop supplies. Renewed Chinese interest following tariff removals has strengthened demand, although export volumes remain slightly behind last year's levels. Strong crusher margins are also providing underlying support. At the same time, dry conditions in parts of the Canadian Prairies are raising concerns about yield potential, seed quality and oil content.
• In the United States, interest in winter canola is increasing as farmers consider its potential role in rotations alongside corn and soybeans. Research suggests integrating canola into these systems could improve overall system productivity by around 18%, while also supporting carbon storage and more efficient nitrogen use. However, field trials are still needed to validate these potential gains.
• Australia's outlook has weakened as unusually wet and cold conditions threaten production and could reduce export availability. Given Australia's importance to global canola trade, further yield losses could have implications for international supply chains.
• In Ukraine, continued port attacks have disrupted exports and encouraged a shift toward domestic processing. Supportive government policies, including export duties, could further accelerate this transition and reduce Ukraine's role as an export supplier.
• Kazakhstan has recorded historically high rapeseed and canola exports, supported by expanded market access and improved logistics. However, its relatively small share of the global market means the increase has limited influence on overall international supply.

Global Canola Market Summary

• Canada remains the primary source of market uncertainty. Despite record planted acreage and strong seasonal demand supporting futures prices, widespread flooding across major producing regions has significantly reduced yield potential. The projected abandonment rate has risen well above normal levels, particularly in Manitoba and Alberta, where flooding during flowering and pod fill threatens production. At the same time, relatively high stock levels continue to provide some buffer against supply losses.
• In the European Union, record canola processing is being supported by strong biofuel demand. Higher domestic production is expected to reduce import requirements during the 2026-27 season, lowering dependence on major exporters such as Canada and Australia while helping stabilize regional supply.
• Ukraine continues to demonstrate resilience, with production expected to recover through improved yields. However, a 10 percent export duty on raw canola seed is encouraging greater domestic processing, reducing export availability while supporting local biofuel and food industries.
• Australia faces a challenging production outlook as below average rainfall and cooler temperatures have weakened crop establishment across key growing regions. Production is expected to decline noticeably, although the easing of Chinese import restrictions on Australian canola could reshape trade flows despite the smaller crop.

Global Soybean Market Summary

• Brazil has raised its 2026 soybean oil export forecast to 2.0 million tonnes after strong international demand, particularly from Southeast Asia's expanding biodiesel sector, made exports more profitable than domestic biodiesel production. While higher export volumes are improving processor margins, the shift raises concerns about tighter domestic soybean oil supplies and higher feedstock costs for biodiesel producers serving the local market.
• In the United States, soybean prices have been supported by strong processing demand, renewed Chinese purchasing activity, and higher than expected June soybean crush volumes. Lower soybean oil inventories and tighter ending stock projections reflect continued strength in domestic demand. The episode also highlights a confirmed private export sale of 136,000 tonnes of soybeans to China for the 2026/27 marketing season, reinforcing ongoing trade despite strong competition from Brazilian exports. Although U.S. crop conditions remain generally favorable, weather risks associated with El Nino remain an important factor to monitor.
• China set a new monthly soybean import record in June 2026 after clearing delayed Brazilian shipments. At the same time, the country continues pursuing policies aimed at reducing long term import dependence through greater use of alternative feed ingredients. Future import decisions, along with periodic phytosanitary restrictions on Brazilian shipments, are expected to remain key drivers of global trade flows.
• The episode concludes that the soybean market continues to be shaped by resilient Chinese demand, active U.S. export sales, and Brazil's balancing of export opportunities with domestic supply needs. Trade policy, biodiesel demand, and weather conditions remain the primary sources of uncertainty and market volatility.

Global Palm Oil Market Summary

• The discussion begins with Malaysia, where palm oil futures remain volatile due to movements in global vegetable oil markets, particularly in China. Despite periods of price recovery, high inventory levels continue to limit upward price momentum. Market direction is expected to depend on stronger export demand, domestic biodiesel consumption, and changes in stock levels.
• India, where palm oil imports have fallen sharply as the price advantage over soybean oil has narrowed. Imports declined by approximately 49 percent year over year in June 2026, reflecting shifting purchasing patterns driven by pricing dynamics and domestic policy decisions. The discussion also notes how expanding biodiesel programs in major exporting countries are influencing global supply availability.
• Attention then turns to Indonesia, where the government is expanding export opportunities into markets such as Russia and the Eurasian Economic Union while increasing domestic biodiesel blending requirements. Planned implementation of a single gate export policy and the transition from B40 to B50 biodiesel are expected to increase domestic consumption and influence future export volumes.
• The European Union, where palm oil imports continue to decline as environmental regulations reduce its use in biofuels. Demand is increasingly shifting toward alternative feedstocks, although import trends vary across member states depending on end use.
• Global outlook, emphasizing that the palm oil market remains highly sensitive to government policies, biodiesel mandates, environmental regulations, inventory levels, and international trade dynamics. 

Global Sunflower Market Summary

• Kazakhstan remains a key source of stability in the global sunflower market, with sunflower seed stocks reaching 766,000 tonnes as of July 1, a 31 percent increase from a year earlier. The country's record 2025 oilseed harvest has created ample supplies for crushing and exports, helping support global vegetable oil availability and providing a buffer against supply disruptions in other regions.
• Ukraine continues to face production and logistical challenges. In the Cherkasy region, unfavorable early season weather has delayed the sunflower harvest by two to three weeks, pushing harvest activity into late September and lowering national production expectations to 13 to 14 million tonnes. Farmers are also contending with diesel shortages, rising crop protection costs, and transportation bottlenecks, all of which are increasing production costs and reducing operational efficiency.
• Additional uncertainty emerged after a Russian drone attack damaged sunflower oil storage and export infrastructure in the Odesa region. The disruption is expected to delay exports, increase logistics costs, and create short term uncertainty for shipments, although the broader impact on Ukraine's overall export capacity remains limited.
• Argentina continues to strengthen its position in global sunflower markets, with export revenues rising sharply during the first five months of 2026. Record sunflower crushing activity and strong forward sales reflect healthy domestic and international demand, although exporters continue to monitor logistical and phytosanitary challenges that could affect trade flows.
• In Russia, lower export duties have improved the competitiveness of sunflower oil exports, particularly to India and Turkey. However, this advantage may prove temporary as new crop supplies enter the market and major importers increase domestic inventories. Expanding global production also has the potential to place downward pressure on prices in the coming months.