This episode examines emerging trade patterns and geopolitical pressures shaping the global canola market.

• India has re-entered the international rapeseed oil market by importing 6,000 tons from the United Arab Emirates. This marks a shift from its traditional reliance on palm, soybean, and sunflower oils, driven by a 34 percent surge in domestic rapeseed oil prices and a delayed local harvest. However, Indian buyers are already turning to more affordable alternatives like soybean oil.
• In Canada, tensions escalate due to a steep 75.8 percent tariff imposed by China on Canadian canola seeds, jeopardizing a market valued at C$5 billion annually. Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe and Agriculture Minister Heath MacDonald are seeking federal support to resolve the issue through diplomatic channels. This conflict highlights the crop's vital role in Canada's economy.
• Australia's export volume has plunged dramatically, from 4.95 million tons to just over 102,000 tons in June, due to limited current crop supplies. Optimism surrounds the upcoming November harvest, especially with expectations of renewed Chinese interest. Meanwhile, long-term production faces pressure from issues like blackleg disease, making continued government support essential.
• In a notable shift, China’s COFCO has signed contracts for 50,000 tons of Australian canola at prices below $600 per ton with freight, underscoring a strategic pivot away from Canadian imports amid tariff constraints.
• These developments reflect a rapidly evolving canola trade landscape, influenced by pricing volatility, export tariffs, and adaptive strategies across key producing and importing countries.

This episode examines recent shifts in the global sunflower market.

• Russia's Don region is facing a steep decline in sunflower yields, with average output in Rostov dropping by more than 50 percent to 7.1 centimeters per hectare. Despite an 8.2 percent increase in planting area, a severe drought has negated earlier forecasts based on favorable spring precipitation. In contrast, the Vladimir region is exploring sunflower cultivation through a new initiative led by entrepreneur Hussein Imenov, who is targeting yields of up to 1.5 tons per hectare using Irish hybrid seeds. This effort represents a broader strategy to diversify agriculture in response to changing climate conditions.
• Ukraine has launched its 2025 harvest season with strong early results. Initial yields in Odessa and Dnipropetrovsk are averaging 5.6 centimeters per hectare, with over 1,800 tons already harvested. These early gains, supported by healthy soybean output in Kharkiv, reinforce Ukraine’s continuing relevance in global agriculture, although the full season’s performance remains to be seen.
• India has seen a significant rise in sunflower oil imports from Ukraine, hitting a record 767,000 tons for the 2024-25 season—a 55 percent year-over-year increase. In July alone, Ukrainian oil accounted for 39 percent of India's imports. This expansion has raised Ukraine’s market share in India to 17 percent. Meanwhile, Russian sunflower oil is losing competitiveness due to increased export duties and production setbacks.
• Kazakhstan is expected to achieve average to above-average yields in key areas such as Kostanay and Abai, thanks to favorable weather. A successful season could strengthen Kazakhstan’s position in the global sunflower oil market and influence international trade dynamics.

This episode explores the resilience and shifting dynamics of the global palm oil market.

• Malaysia continues to show stability in its palm oil exports, shipping 191,231 tons to the United States in 2024—just 1.1 percent of its total exports—highlighting a limited dependency on U.S. markets. Government initiatives, including support for smallholders and efforts to combat diseases like Ganoderma stem rot, reinforce Malaysia’s market position. These strategies aim to sustain competitiveness amid global trade uncertainty through sustainability and market diversification.
• Indonesia is preparing for substantial growth in crude palm oil output, projecting an increase from 48.2 million tons in 2024 to 60 million tons by 2030. This expansion is driven by rising demand in food, biofuel, and oleochemical sectors. To support this growth, investments are being made in workforce development and plantation rejuvenation to improve productivity and yields.
• Colombia and Guatemala, ranked fourth and sixth in global palm oil production respectively, are penetrating the Indian market with competitively priced exports. This strategic move, motivated by surplus production, may reshape traditional market dynamics and influence Malaysian futures. Despite high freight costs and a 45-day transit time, these suppliers remain attractive due to their lower landing prices.
• India’s palm oil demand remains strong, bolstered by seasonal consumption increases. The shift to new suppliers could alter established trade patterns and affect pricing trends. Meanwhile, Malaysian futures have experienced volatility, dipping but partially recovering on the strength of recent export data. Prices are expected to remain above RM4,300 per ton, supported by constrained supply forecasts and higher biodiesel demand, which is also reducing soybean availability.

This week’s episode delivers a focused analysis of developments across the global canola and rapeseed markets. 

• Canada’s canola market is showing renewed strength, with prices climbing 1.5 percent to C$659.80 per ton, marking a 16 percent increase year over year. This rebound occurs despite ongoing trade tensions with China, which previously imposed anti-dumping fees on Canadian canola. Forecasts also indicate a slight harvest increase of 70,000 tons, bringing the total to 19.25 million tons for the upcoming season.
• In the European Union, a U.S. Department of Agriculture report projects a 2.79 million ton rise in rapeseed production, bringing total output to 19.65 million tons. This forecast includes a 200,000 ton upward revision from previous estimates. Correspondingly, the Paris Stock Exchange shows a 1.6 percent increase in the November contract, now priced at €473.75 per ton, reflecting a 4.6 percent annual gain.
• Contrasting this growth, Ukraine anticipates a 300,000 ton reduction in its rapeseed output, totaling 3.5 million tons. Russia is also expected to see a decline, with harvest projections falling by 650,000 tons to 5.3 million tons. These decreases may influence both countries’ export capacities and their roles in the global market.
• Australia, however, is projected to increase production by 210,000 tons, reaching 6.15 million tons for the upcoming season. This growth enhances Australia’s standing in the global oilseeds market and bolsters its export outlook.
• These developments underscore the interconnected nature of global rapeseed and canola markets. Regional outputs are shaped by a mix of trade policies, geopolitical factors, and local agricultural conditions, creating a complex environment for producers and traders alike.

This episode offers a strategic overview of the global sunflower market.

• Ukraine, historically a dominant sunflower oil exporter, faces ongoing production uncertainties due to regional conflict. Traders are cautioned to monitor the situation closely, as disruptions in Ukrainian exports could lead to heightened price volatility and supply constraints.
• Meanwhile, Russia is working to expand its market presence by offering competitively priced sunflower oil to emerging markets, a response to ongoing Western sanctions. However, logistical hurdles continue to impact delivery timelines and market responsiveness.
• Argentina and Turkey are both scaling up sunflower cultivation to meet rising global demand. These expansions could introduce greater supply stability and price moderation over the long term. Nevertheless, unpredictable weather patterns in key producing regions remain a critical concern, with potential implications for global crop yields.
• In parallel, growing attention to sustainable farming is beginning to shape market sentiment. Anticipated regulations favoring environmentally responsible production methods may impact global supply chains and require traders to adapt their strategies.

This episode delivers a detailed review of the global palm oil market. 

• Malaysia's palm oil market showed notable strength, with the October benchmark contract rising by RM9 to RM4,120 per metric ton, marking a 3.69 percent weekly gain. This performance was bolstered by a government decision to raise the export duty to 10 percent, part of a broader effort to manage export volumes and support local industries. July saw a 7.09 percent increase in production, reaching 1.81 million tons—the highest since September of the prior year—while exports rose by 3.82 percent. Inventory levels also climbed, exceeding 2.11 million tons, the highest in nearly two years, as production outpaced demand.
• India’s palm oil imports are expected to fall 13.5 percent to a five-year low of 7.8 million metric tons, primarily due to high premiums that have made alternatives like soy oil more attractive. At one-point, crude palm oil carried a $150 per ton premium over crude soy oil, significantly influencing buying decisions among Indian consumers and industrial buyers.
• In Indonesia, plans to implement a B50 biodiesel mandate (requiring 50 percent palm oil content) have been delayed past the January target. Nonetheless, palm oil production is projected to increase by 3 percent to 47 million tons, driven by favorable weather and effective fertilizer use. Despite declining demand from some key importers and expanding domestic biodiesel obligations, Indonesia's sector remains resilient. Export prospects are buoyed by potential trade gains, including reduced European tariffs linked to a new economic agreement.

This episode provides a comprehensive analysis of the global sunflower market for the week of August 10, 2025

• In Ukraine, adverse weather in Mykolaiv and Dnipro regions is expected to cut yields by roughly one million tons. However, favorable conditions elsewhere are keeping the national production forecast stable at 13.5 to 14 million tons. Domestic prices have risen sharply to 58,000–60,000 Ukrainian hryvnia per ton, driven by low reserves and changes in processing preferences. Export demand is expected to fall due to insufficient stock levels.
• Russia is set for higher sunflower production despite dryness in the Southwest, thanks to a one-million-hectare expansion in sown area, bringing the total to 11.4 million hectares. Output is projected at 18 to 18.5 million tons. Kazakhstan has also expanded sunflower cultivation significantly, from 1.28 to 1.77 million hectares, potentially lifting production to 2–2.3 million tons. These increases will contribute to a stronger global output forecast.
• In the European Union, adverse weather has lowered expected yields to 1.94 tons per hectare for 2025–26, an 8 percent drop from earlier estimates and 4 percent below the five-year average. This decline has fueled stronger import demand for sunflower oil, particularly amid uncertainty in the palm oil market.
• Globally, sunflower seed production for the marketing year is forecast to reach 59.3 million tons, a 7.6 percent increase from last year, driven by recovery from previous poor harvests. However, low global stock levels may limit processing capacity and influence market stability. The International Grains Council projects a slightly lower figure of 56.6 million tons, reflecting cautious optimism.
• These developments highlight the complex interplay of weather patterns, cultivation expansion, market demand, and pricing factors that will shape the future of the sunflower oil industry.

This episode provides a detailed review of the global palm oil market for the week of August 10, 2025.

• In Malaysia, palm oil futures experienced an uptick after a two-week decline, supported by expectations of stronger demand in August. The October delivery contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange rose by RM42 to RM4,282 per metric ton. Performance in soy oil also contributed to market stability. However, lower crude oil futures have reduced palm oil’s biodiesel appeal. A slight depreciation of the Malaysian ringgit against the U.S. dollar has boosted export competitiveness. Domestic inventories are forecast to reach 2.25 million metric tons in July, the highest level in nearly two years, as production outpaces exports. Shipments to the United States rose sharply by 51.8 percent in early 2025. Industry player FGV is undergoing a delisting following a takeover by the Federal Land Development Authority, which presents both opportunities and challenges due to legacy reputation concerns.
• In Indonesia, palm oil exports grew 15.1 percent in June amid easing concerns over U.S. tariffs, contributing to a $4.9 billion trade surplus. The country is benefiting from new trade agreements that reduce tariffs and improve market access. Collaborative efforts with Malaysia aim to counter negative campaigns against palm oil and reinforce its sustainability credentials.
• On a global scale, palm oil pricing remains tied to movements in competing vegetable oils such as soy and rapeseed oil, as well as crude oil price trends and currency fluctuations. Economic policy, tariffs, and trade negotiations continue to shape the export strategies of leading producers. Both Malaysia and Indonesia rely on strategic policy maneuvers and international alliances to maintain competitiveness in the complex global palm oil market.

This episode examines recent movements in the global canola market for the week of August 10, 2025

• In Canada, canola prices faced downward pressure in early August due to speculative long liquidation, resulting in declines for ICE futures contracts. While the November contract showed technical bearish signals, underlying market fundamentals remain robust. Strong demand, particularly from the United States, has driven record-high processing volumes for the 2024–25 marketing year, reaching 11.3 million tons. This resilience contrasts with declines in soybean processing and has been supported by recent beneficial rainfall in Saskatchewan and Alberta, improving crop prospects in those provinces.
• In Russia, rapeseed production is encountering significant headwinds from adverse weather and geopolitical tensions that are disrupting trade and input supply chains. Industry estimates suggest the 2025 harvest could reach up to 5 million tons if these challenges are mitigated. As of August 1, only 817,000 tons had been harvested, marking a year-on-year decline. However, improved yields have been recorded in the Central, North Caucasian, and Volga districts, and expanded sowing areas indicate potential for future growth in production.
• The developments in both Canada and Russia underscore the complex mix of environmental, economic, and political factors influencing the canola and rapeseed sectors. These dynamics reinforce the importance of continuous monitoring and adaptive strategies in major production regions.

This episode provides an in-depth look at the global canola market as of August 3, 2025.

• Russia is on track for a record canola harvest, with nearly 3 million hectares sown in 2025, a 5.5 percent increase from the previous year. Production is expected to reach between 5.2 and 6 million tons, up from 4.7 million tons in 2024. High yields in regions like Stavropol and the Volga offset localized weather setbacks. Processing dominates domestic use, accounting for 96.6 percent of consumption in 2024–2025, with rapeseed oil and animal feed products leading demand. Russia has significantly expanded its rapeseed oil exports, particularly to China, supported by increased processing capabilities now reaching 135,000 tons per month. However, a 30 percent export duty in place through August 2026 has sharply reduced raw canola exports to China, exposing risks tied to limited market diversification.
• Canada faces several challenges including political tensions with the United States and growing competition from Australia in China. These issues have driven an 8.9 percent drop in canola futures within a week. May’s canola crush volume dropped to an 11-month low of 831,000 tons, 10 percent below the previous year. Tightened domestic stocks and China’s continued 100 percent import tariff on Canadian canola meal exacerbate the situation. Weather conditions have shown some improvement in the Prairies, potentially stabilizing yields.
• Australia is reentering the Chinese market after a period of restricted access, potentially reshaping trade dynamics long dominated by Canada. Despite renewed export momentum, domestic production for 2025–2026 is forecast at 5.7 million tons due to drought impacts. Nonetheless, export volumes remain robust, reflecting sustained global demand.
• In the European Union, production forecasts have increased to 20 million tons, driven by gains in France, Germany, and Romania. However, processing activity has slowed to a three-year low because of weak crush margins and declining biodiesel demand. The influx of low-cost South American soymeal is further reducing demand for canola meal, particularly in Germany’s feed sector.
• Ukraine anticipates its lowest canola output in four years, projected between 2.7 and 2.8 million tons due to adverse weather and delayed harvests. A newly imposed 10 percent export duty, intended to boost domestic processing, is expected to pressure local markets and prices. Exports have already declined 15 percent year over year, with further reductions anticipated.
• Overall, global canola production and trade are navigating a complex landscape. Russia leads in production growth, Canada contends with geopolitical and trade disruptions, Australia is strategically repositioning in the Chinese market, and the EU and Ukraine face challenges related to processing economics and environmental conditions. Each market is adapting uniquely as 2025 progresses.