CropGPT - Podcast for Commodities

This week on CropGPT, we dive into the data shaping the  US ag economy and outlook for the 2025/26 season.

Labour Market Snapshot

• Farm labour demand is rising: Hired workers by U.S. farm operators increased 3% in both January and April 2025 vs. the same weeks in 2024.
• Wage growth holds steady:
  • All hired workers: $19.52/hr (+3% YoY)
  • Field workers: $18.58/hr (+2%)
  • Livestock workers: $18.15/hr (+4%)
• Average hours worked also ticked up to 40.8 hours/week in April.

Inflation & Input Price Watch

• CPI (April 2025): +0.2% MoM; 2.3% YoY – lowest 12-month rise since Feb 2021
• Food-at-home prices: -0.4% MoM
• Energy index: +0.7% MoM
• PPI (Producer Prices): -0.5% overall in April
  • Services down 0.7%
  • Goods unchanged
  • Notably: Egg prices fell 39.4%

Crop Outlook: 2025/26 Projections

• Wheat:
  • U.S. production: 1.921B bushels (-3% YoY)
  • Price: $5.30/bu (-$0.20 YoY)
  • Global record output: 808.5M tons
• Corn:
  • U.S. crop: 15.8B bushels (+6%)
  • Highest planted area in over a decade (95.3M acres)
  • Price: $4.20/bu (-$0.15)
  • Global output: 1.265B metric tons
• Rice:
  • U.S. production down 1%, but imports at record 49.2M cwt
  • Price: $13.20/cwt (down from $15.20)
• Soybeans:
  • Lower U.S. supplies and exports, but higher crush
  • Price: $10.25/bu (up from $9.95)
  • Global oilseed production: +2%

Livestock, Poultry & Dairy

• Beef: Production down in 2026 due to tight cattle supply and Mexican import halt
• Pork: Production up on stronger hog inventory
• Poultry: Broiler and turkey output forecast higher
• Eggs: Output rebounds, prices expected to drop
• Dairy: Milk production to rise, prices to ease
  • All-milk price forecast: $21.15/cwt

Global Trade Pressure

• WTO forecasts -0.2% contraction in global goods trade for 2025
• U.S.-China tensions escalate: New tariffs on both sides impacting ag goods
• EU on pause: 90-day suspension on retaliatory ag tariffs amid U.S. talks
• Farm groups warn: Rising tariffs = costlier inputs + weaker U.S. export position
• WTO agriculture negotiations resume ahead of March 2026 ministerial

Cyber Threats Targeting the UK Food Supply Chain

Recent cyber attacks on the UK food supply chain and logistics sector have underscored significant vulnerabilities in this critical infrastructure. A detailed review of incidents since early 2022, particularly a series of attacks between February and May 2025, highlights the evolving nature of these threats, the actors involved, and their substantial impact on businesses and consumers. The food sector has become an attractive target, with clear implications for national security.

Notable Cyber Incidents in the UK Food & Logistics Sector

The period in Spring 2025 witnessed a series of disruptive attacks. In mid-April 2025, Marks & Spencer (M&S) suffered a severe ransomware/extortion attack that crippled systems, suspending online orders and click-and-collect for around three weeks and affecting contactless payments. To contain the breach, M&S took food supply systems offline, leading to temporary food shortages and empty shelves in some stores. Attackers also accessed significant customer data.

Shortly after M&S, The Co-op Group detected a similar intrusion and preemptively shut down IT systems to prevent ransomware deployment. While this action, described by attackers as Co-op "yanking their own plug," prevented encryption, it still caused significant short-term disruption, including empty shelves and payment issues. Attackers stole personal data of up to 20 million customers while inside the network.

In mid-May 2025, Peter Green Chilled, a crucial cold-chain distributor supplying major supermarkets, was hit by a ransomware attack. This attack halted warehouse management and ordering systems, resulting in a backlog of fresh goods and reports of thousands of packs of meat at risk of spoilage due to delivery delays.

These incidents follow earlier attacks since 2022, including:

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KP Snacks (Feb 2022): A Conti ransomware attack disrupted IT systems and threatened delays in deliveries of crisps and nuts.

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Yodel (Jun 2022): Parcel delivery operations were disrupted for days by a suspected ransomware attack, impacting logistics including grocery deliveries.

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Royal Mail (Jan 2023): A LockBit ransomware attack caused severe disruption to international mail exports, halting shipments for days and affecting critical logistics.

Other incidents have affected food producers, wholesalers, and retailers, indicating that attackers have targeted various points from agricultural suppliers to grocery store networks. The increasing reliance on digitised systems means a breach can swiftly halt operations across the chain.

Threat Actors and Tactics

The overwhelming majority of these attacks are attributed to financially motivated cybercriminal groups, primarily ransomware gangs. Groups implicated include Conti, LockBit, and Scattered Spider. Scattered Spider, identified in the M&S and Co-op attacks, is noted for its sophistication, particularly its use of clever social engineering tactics to impersonate company staff and bypass security measures like multifactor authentication. Once access is gained, these groups often escalate privileges and exfiltrate data before deploying ransomware, a tactic known as double extortion. Scattered Spider reportedly refers to their ransomware as "DragonForce".

Many of these groups, such as Conti and LockBit, operate from or have strong ties to Russia and Eastern Europe. While their primary motivation is financial gain, their activities can align with hostile state interests by causing economic and social disruption in rival countries. Attackers often specifically target "time-sensitive" sectors like food distribution because the urgency driven by perishable goods and just-in-time delivery pressures increases the likelihood of a quick ransom payment.

While other actors like hacktivists exist, predominantly conducting less disruptive DDoS attacks, criminal ransomware and extortion crews pose the most significant immediate cyber threat to food and logistics organisations.

Potential Foreign State Actor Involvement

Officially, UK authorities maintain that the food sector attacks appear to be the work of cybercriminals rather than direct nation-state cyber warfare. The Spring 2025 retail attacks have not been publicly attributed to any government. However, UK intelligence and cyber security leaders caution that the distinction between criminal and state-aligned activity can be ambiguous.

Hostile states, including Russia, are increasingly using technology dependence against Western countries to cause disruption, specifically targeting critical national infrastructure (CNI), which includes food supply chains. The UK's security services view attacks on infrastructure as potentially part of a hybrid warfare strategy. While state-sponsored APT groups have primarily focused on Ukraine and military targets since the war began, officials have not ruled out them targeting food supply in Western countries as tensions persist. The NotPetya incident in 2017, perpetrated by Russian military hackers, demonstrated how a state attack could cascade into global logistics paralysis, serving as a stark warning. China is also mentioned as a state actor, although its primary interest in food/logistics might be focused on espionage and supply chain mapping rather than immediate disruption.

In summary, while known attacks are attributed to criminal groups, the strategic backdrop of heightened international tensions and the potential for state tolerance or encouragement of criminal groups targeting CNI means the risk of a deliberate state-backed attack on UK food supply, or a state-inspired criminal act, cannot be entirely dismissed.

Government and Expert Commentary

UK cyber and intelligence officials have been vocal about the severe threat to CNI, including the food sector. The NCSC describes the risk as "widely underestimated" and notes a "widening gap" between threats and defenses. The NCSC CEO labelled the recent retail attacks a "wake-up call to all organisations". Parliamentary committees, such as the Joint Committee on National Security Strategy, explicitly link the retail hacks to national security, highlighting that disruption leading to empty shelves and unfulfilled deliveries affects local communities and the economy. Former and current MI5 leaders recognise that "food is part of our national security" and advocate for greater resilience. The NCSC actively engages with the food industry and conducts exercises simulating supply chain attacks, underscoring the sector's importance.

International Context

The UK's experience is part of a global trend of cyber attacks on food and logistics sectors.

•JBS Foods (Global, 2021): A ransomware attack on the world's largest meat processor forced plant shutdowns in multiple countries, threatening supply and increasing prices.

•Kaseya/Coop Sweden (2021): A supply-chain attack via an IT provider crippled hundreds of Swedish Coop grocery stores, leaving shoppers facing closed stores.

•Bakker Logistiek (Netherlands, 2021): A ransomware attack on a major food logistics company led to shortages of certain foods, such as cheese, in Dutch supermarkets.

•Dole Food Company (Global, 2023): R...

UK Bioethanol Market Shake-Up: What the US Trade Deal Means

Today we're talking about the significant impact of a recent UK-US trade arrangement, specifically focusing on how it affects the UK's bioethanol industry and its farmers.

The big news is the UK government's decision to completely remove the 19% import tariff on US ethanol. This is a major shift, essentially fully liberalising the market.

On the one hand, there are potential benefits. The aim is to bring cheaper, corn-based ethanol from large American distilleries into the UK. This could potentially lower fuel costs for drivers and help ensure the supply of E10 petrol, which contains 10% ethanol, aligning with decarbonisation goals. The US sees it boosting their ethanol exports significantly.

However, this move is causing anxiety across British farms and factories. The concern is that this influx of cheaper US ethanol will undercut local UK producers.

The UK does have its own bioethanol industry, with plants like Ensus, Vivergo, and British Sugar's facility. These plants have substantial capacity, capable of producing hundreds of millions of litres annually using British-grown wheat and sugar beet. They also support thousands of supply chain jobs and produce valuable by-products like animal feed and CO₂.

But the reality is, the UK already relies heavily on imports for its bioethanol needs. Only about a quarter or less of the bioethanol used in UK transport currently comes from UK-grown crops. The US is already the dominant supplier, accounting for a large share of imports even before this tariff removal.

With the 19% tariff gone, the price advantage for US ethanol is expected to increase, making it even more competitive. This could lead to lower wholesale ethanol prices in the UK market.

The major worry is that UK producers, who often face higher production costs, may find it difficult to compete. This could force them to scale back production or even become marginal suppliers.

The knock-on effect would hit arable farmers hardest. Feed wheat and sugar beet have relied on ethanol production as a consistent market. If production cuts happen, farmers face shrinking demand and potentially falling prices for their crops. The National Farmers' Union warns that agriculture is once again "shouldering the heavy burden" of trade liberalisation.

In essence, while the deal aims for cheaper fuel, it risks draining investment, jobs, and crucial crop demand from the UK's domestic industry. The UK's trade balance in this sector is likely to worsen as more money goes towards imports.

The coming years will be critical in determining if the UK's bioethanol industry and the farmers who supply it can survive and adapt in this new, highly competitive environment. It raises the question of whether Britain wants to be a producer or primarily just a buyer 

Analysing the New UK-US Beef Trade Deal

Welcome to this episode where we discuss the recent UK–US trade agreement and its implications for the beef industry.

Key points covered in this episode:

• Overview of the Deal: A new UK–US trade agreement has been signed, which for the first time opens the UK market to significant imports of U.S. beef. In return, British farmers gain improved access to the U.S. market. The deal establishes a reciprocal tariff-rate quota of 13,000 tonnes for hormone-free beef. This volume is equivalent to approximately 4% of total UK beef production and is a significant increase from the previous quota of around 1,000 tonnes under WTO rules. U.S. officials have expressed optimism, with the U.S. Agriculture Secretary stating the agreement will “exponentially increase our beef exports”. The UK government has hailed it as “unprecedented market access for British farmers with protections on food standards maintained”.
• Potential Impacts on the UK Beef Market:
  • Import Volumes: While 13,000 tonnes is currently only about 4% of total UK beef imports, it is viewed as a starting point that could potentially grow over time, especially if quotas expand in the future. Forecasts suggest the UK will require 12% more imported beef in 2025 to meet demand, and U.S. beef could help fill this gap.
  • Downward Price Pressure: An influx of U.S. beef is expected to intensify price competition in the UK market. As U.S. cattle can often be raised at lower cost, U.S. imports can be priced competitively, potentially driving UK farmgate prices down. Industry analysts foresee British cattle prices being capped by cheaper global supply over time, potentially aligning UK prices closer to world market levels.
  • Market Segmentation: UK consumers may not see a direct substitution, as U.S. beef is largely grain-fed while UK beef is often grass-fed. This could lead to market segmentation, with U.S. beef potentially competing more in processed foods, mass catering, and lower-priced cuts (such as mince and burgers). British beef might retain a smaller, premium share, especially with grass-fed branding.
  • Production and Self-Sufficiency: Increased import competition, if it erodes profitability, could lead some British farmers to scale back or exit beef production. The UK beef sector is expected to undergo significant change, with market share for UK beef expected to shrink and survival depending on cost-competitiveness or niche differentiation. Some projections indicate UK self-sufficiency in beef may drop below current levels (~75%) over the next decade as domestic output falls and imports rise.
• Structural Advantages of U.S. Beef Production: Several factors contribute to the lower cost structure of U.S. beef production compared to the UK: 
  • Economies of Scale: U.S. beef is often produced on an industrial scale, with vast feedlots and ranches allowing for more cattle per labour unit, which drives down per-unit costs.
  • Lower Feed and Input Costs: The U.S. has abundant, low-cost feed grain supplies, and many cattle are grain-finished quickly. Year-round grazing in parts of the U.S. also reduces costs compared to UK farms which require winter housing.
  • Regulatory/Standards Differences: While the deal requires hormone-free beef, historical use of growth hormones contributed to the U.S. industry's cost efficiency. Less stringent U.S. environmental and welfare regulations for feedlots compared to UK norms also contribute to lower costs.
  • Labour and Land Productivity: U.S. farms often have lower labour costs per animal and cheaper, more abundant land.
• Stakeholder Perspectives:
  • UK Farming Unions (e.g., NFU): Responded cautiously, warning of potential undercutting by cheaper U.S. imports and unfair competition. While welcoming the ban on hormone-treated beef, they expressed concern that UK farming has shouldered concessions in recent trade deals. They are lobbying for core standards to apply equally to imports and domestic produce and warn that without protections, domestic beef farming could shrink drastically.
  • UK Government: Maintains the deal aligns with national interests, protects British farmers, and upholds high standards. They see it as an export opportunity for UK farmers to access the U.S. market, particularly for premium, traceable beef.
  • AHDB & Trade Analysts: Note that increased imports will displace domestic supply as consumption is flat or falling. They project potential price volatility and a moderate long-term decline in real prices. However, they also highlight the opportunity for UK exporters to target high-value U.S. markets with grass-fed, sustainable beef, stressing the importance of the "British brand".
• Long-Term Outlook: The sector faces significant change. Imported beef may come to dominate processed and low-cost retail channels, while British beef occupies a smaller, premium share. Survival for UK producers will depend on either cost-competitiveness or effective niche differentiation. There are warnings of a potential structural shake-out, with higher-cost farms struggling, which could raise food security questions and threaten rural livelihoods.

This agreement represents a shift in the UK beef market dynamics, introducing new competition while also creating potential export opportunities for UK producers willing to focus on quality and differentiation.

This episode provides a structured overview of regional production trends, pricing frameworks, and trade developments shaping the global coffee market.

• Colombia: The National Federation of Coffee Growers has introduced a standardized purchasing system that anchors grower payments to the New York Stock Exchange price, adjusted by exchange rates and quality differentials. Internal reference prices reached COP 404,000 per 125 kg of dry parchment, while international quotes stood at $384.65/lb. Quality-based penalties range from COP 20,000 to 88,000, reinforcing quality incentives in domestic programs.
• Brazil: Coffee production for 2025/26 is forecast at 51.8 million 60-kg bags, reflecting a 4.4% decline year-on-year. Arabica output is expected to drop by 12.4%, partially offset by a 17.2% rise in Robusta production. Export volumes were down 26% by March, but high international prices have kept export revenues strong. Mechanization and technological advancement, particularly in Minas Gerais, continue to support Brazil's productivity and competitive edge.
• Vietnam & Southeast Asia: Vietnam recorded a 19% year-on-year decline in coffee export volumes, attributed to weather-related supply issues. However, export values rose 3.7% due to firmer global pricing. Indonesian output also suffered from climatic challenges. Ethiopia faced regulatory hurdles in the EU market, impacting its export potential.
• Global Context: The coffee sector is navigating multiple structural shifts. U.S. tariffs on imports from Brazil, Vietnam, and Indonesia are reshaping trade routes. Climate volatility, especially El Niño effects, continues to impact Central American and Colombian output. Currency fluctuations and speculative trading have contributed to price instability, often deviating from traditional supply-demand fundamentals.