Global sugar market summary

• Brazil reported a significant increase in sugar production, supported by favorable growing conditions. According to UNICA, sugar output in the Center-South region rose 55.3% year over year by April, reaching 2.475 million metric tons. The USDA's Foreign Agricultural Service forecasts that Brazil's 2025-26 sugar production could reach a record 44.7 million metric tons. Looking ahead, however, production is expected to ease modestly, with forecasts ranging between 42.5 million and 43.95 million metric tons for 2026-27. The anticipated decline is largely attributed to increased ethanol production demand rather than crop-related challenges. A weaker Brazilian real continues to support export competitiveness despite the presence of a global sugar surplus.
• Thailand further strengthened its position as a major sugar exporter, recording a 29% increase in sugar exports between January and April 2026, totaling 1.6 million metric tons. The USDA estimates the country's 2025-26 sugar production at 10.25 million metric tons, representing a 2% increase from the previous season. Strong export performance continues to reinforce Thailand's importance within the global sugar trade.
• India also posted strong production results, with sugar output reaching 27.48 million metric tons from October through mid-April, up 7.7% year over year. The USDA projects full-season production at 35.25 million metric tons. Despite the positive production outlook, concerns are emerging over the potential impact of El Nino on monsoon rainfall. Reduced rainfall could pose risks to future crop development and production cycles, making weather conditions an important factor to monitor in the coming months.
• At the global level, the sugar market remains in surplus during the 2025-26 season, with the International Sugar Organization projecting a surplus of 2.2 million metric tons. 

Global Sugar Market Summary

• Tanzania has expanded its milling capacity to a potential 800,000 tons per year, surpassing domestic consumption of approximately 550,000 tons. The Colombero facility exemplifies this investment trend, having nearly doubled its capacity from 123,000 to 226,000 tons. The key constraint now lies on the feedstock side, where inconsistent sugarcane supply risks preventing mills from operating at their expanded potential.
• Fiji's cane pricing structure is under political pressure, with National Federation Party leader Bhimon Prasad calling for the delivery payment to be raised from $34.44 to $45 per ton, alongside fuel and input subsidies. Unresolved pricing tensions pose a risk of farmer-level disruptions that could undermine sector stability if not addressed by government.
• Yunnan Province, China processed 22,290,000 tons of sugarcane by May 2026, though a sugarcane inventory buildup of 1,300,000 tons and a sugar sales rate of 55.45% (down from 64.32% the prior year) point to demand absorption challenges and potential oversupply pressure. Gangma County posted a record season but its contribution remains insufficient to meaningfully reduce China's overall import dependency, with land availability constraining further expansion.
• The United Kingdom has approved a key pesticide for sugar beet growers to counter peach potato aphid pressure, reflecting ongoing regulatory balancing between crop protection needs and environmental considerations.
• Vietnam has extended anti-dumping and countervailing duties on Thai sugar imports for a further five years, targeting tariff circumvention routes through other ASEAN countries as part of a broader domestic market defense strategy.
• The Philippines is contending with a resurgence of red striped soft scale insect infestations in sugarcane plantations, with growers calling for urgent government intervention to protect yield and quality outcomes.
• Uttar Pradesh, India is advancing a sugarcane-groundnut intercropping program backed by state agricultural policy, aimed at improving soil health, optimizing cane yields, and supplementing farmer incomes through groundnut harvests.

Global Sugar Market Summary

• Indonesia's E5 fuel blending program is driving demand for domestically sourced molasses, but cheaper ethanol imports from Pakistan are creating a substitution effect that has compressed local molasses prices sharply, from IDR 2,500 to IDR 104,100 per kilogram. Sugarcane farmers are lobbying for import restrictions on ethanol feedstocks to protect domestic market economics. Infrastructure gaps remain a structural constraint: without adequate investment in local production capacity, the E5 program risks sustained import dependency and continued pricing instability for molasses.
• Fiji Sugar Corporation has restructured its cane payment framework, setting a current price of $42 per ton with a projected increase to $57.40 per ton for the 2026 season. The adjustment is intended to stabilize farmer cash flows and align earnings more closely with sugar market proceeds, while also reducing mill revenue exposure to price volatility and sustaining grower participation levels.
• Kenya has introduced minimum cane pricing at KES 5,500 per ton in response to an oversupply-driven price collapse in the domestic market. The regulatory floor is designed to protect farmer income and preserve operational liquidity across milling companies. Compliance monitoring will be critical to the effectiveness of this measure, as sustained adherence is necessary to maintain stability across both the farming and processing tiers of the supply chain.

Global Sugar Market Summary

• China's sugar production is surging, creating significant downward pressure on global refined sugar premiums. April 2026 refinery output reached 1,043,000 tons, with cumulative production from January to April totaling 10,746,000 tons, a 28% increase year over year. Enhanced agricultural yields and substantial cross-border feed stock imports are driving this growth. Domestic inventories have climbed sharply to 2,711,000 tons by March end, creating an oversupply scenario that has reduced the production to sales ratio to 57.93%. This inventory buildup allows China to significantly curtail sugar imports, particularly for refined grades, exerting sustained downward pressure on global premium pricing.
• India's sugar sector is experiencing a dual transformation: production revitalization efforts in Uttar Pradesh and a strategic pivot toward biomanufacturing. The government is establishing a sugarcane university and improving soil health and pest management while advancing sugarcane variety adoption to address past production declines. However, these measures face implementation delays and limited immediate impact. Simultaneously, the industry is transitioning toward sustainable aviation fuel and other value-added bioproducts, bolstered by global investments and aimed at integrating the sector into the global bioeconomy. This diversification necessitates substantial infrastructure and policy adjustments to materialize effectively.
• India's restrictive export policy is fundamentally reshaping global sugar trade flows. New export controls have curtailed shipments to under 5% of total production, with domestic consumption and ethanol production absorbing a larger share of sugarcane output. While these measures aim to stabilize internal sugar supply and pricing structures, they are concurrently restricting export volumes from one of the globe's leading sugar producers and reshaping global market dynamics significantly.

Global Sugar Market Summary

• India's suspension of sugar exports until September 2026 represents a pivotal shift in global sugar dynamics, with approximately 1,450,000 metric tons of sugar retained domestically to ensure market stability amid forecasted production declines. Despite sizable national output of 27,390,000 metric tons as of mid-April 2026, the export ban prioritizes domestic consumption over international trade commitments. This decision complicates international trade dynamics as approved export quotas remain unfilled, forcing countries reliant on Indian sugar to pursue alternative sources and likely triggering shifts in global trade patterns and international pricing.
• The Philippines sugar sector faces pest management challenges, with red stripe soft scale insects infesting approximately 1,880 hectares of sugarcane plantations in the Visayas region. Local government response includes deploying beneficial microorganisms and educating farmers on biological controls. While the affected area remains relatively minor on a national scale, the threat of multiplying pest issues looms due to conducive hot weather conditions, potentially jeopardizing local sugar yields and affecting the country's import-export balance depending on infestation management success.
• Brazil's sugar market faces mounting pressure as ethanol demand redirects sugarcane allocation away from sugar production. Sugar production is expected to fall below 48.6% for the upcoming quarter, compounded by rising diesel costs, indicating Brazil will supply less sugar to the global market. This reorientation toward domestic energy needs could tighten sugar supplies globally, exerting upward pressure on prices.
• Thailand contends with prolonged drought conditions that jeopardize sugar output capabilities, with environmental impacts threatening both domestic supply commitments. Reduced yields and sugar content may make it challenging for Thailand to fill the gap left by India in the global market, potentially exacerbating upward trends in sugar prices.
• Fiji's 2026 sugarcane crushing season is carefully scheduled in response to logistical constraints. Although Fiji's sugar output remains modest on the global scale, its commitment to improving agricultural logistics and infrastructure indicates a long-term strategy to enhance efficiency and potentially bolster its role in the sugar market over time.

Global Sugar Market Summary

• In Fiji, the National Farmers Union is proposing that a portion of an AUD 30,000,000 government budget support package be directed toward fuel cost subsidies for sugarcane transport. The measure is aimed at addressing logistical pressure from rising fuel prices and ensuring timely cane deliveries to mills, which is critical for maintaining sucrose recovery rates. Given Fiji's limited scale relative to major global producers, the initiative has negligible bearing on international sugar market dynamics.
• In Gujarat, India, the state government has reduced the subsidized sugar allocation under the public distribution system from 1.4 kilograms to 1 kilogram per month for a family of four. With food inflation running high, the reduction is expected to push low-income households toward open market purchases to meet their consumption needs, with potential upward pressure on local retail sugar prices.
• Algeria's Sevital group is committing USD 600,000,000 to a new sugar beet project in Gardea, integrating agricultural production with on-site processing to reduce logistical inefficiencies. The initiative is aligned with the government's goal of reducing the country's annual sugar import requirement of approximately 2,300,000 tons, and is designed to capture value from byproducts including beet pulp and molasses, improving resilience against global price volatility.
• Thailand has reported a notable reduction in pre-harvest sugarcane burning to just 3.8% of the crop, well below the government's 10% threshold. While the development represents meaningful progress on environmental and emissions targets, it carries no material implication for global sugar supply volumes.

Global Sugar Market Summary, May 2026

• India's sugar output for the 2026/27 marketing year is projected to rise 12% to 33,600,000 tons, supported by a policy shift reducing ethanol diversion targets and two consecutive favorable monsoon cycles that have improved water availability for sugarcane cultivation. However, export performance is falling significantly short of targets: only 550,000 tons have been contracted against an intended 2,000,000 tons. Strait of Hormuz maritime disruptions are driving up shipping costs and eroding India's competitiveness in international markets, limiting its ability to convert the production increase into export gains.
• Brazil's 2026/27 sugarcane harvest is forecast at 709,100,000 tons, a 5.3% increase that would represent the second largest crop on record. Improved harvest area and yields reinforce Brazil's standing as the dominant global sugar supplier. However, a proposed increase in the ethanol blend mandate from 30% to 35% introduces meaningful uncertainty around the sugar-ethanol allocation decision. If adopted, this shift would redirect a larger share of cane toward biofuel production, potentially constraining sugar export volumes at a time when global supply is already under pressure from Indian logistical headwinds.
• Colombia's 2026/27 production forecast shows a modest improvement to 2,400,000 tons, aided by the transition from La Nina to El Nino conditions that have supported water resources and crop quality. While the improvement provides some domestic market relief, Colombia's scale limits its influence on global supply dynamics.
• At the global level, the combination of Strait of Hormuz shipping disruptions and the structural pull of ethanol mandates in both India and Brazil creates a tightening bias for exportable sugar supply. Unless other producers step in to fill the gap, near-term price volatility remains a credible risk.

Global Sugar Market Weekly Summary

• China's sugar production forecast for 2025/26 has been revised upward by 800,000 metric tons to 12,500,000 metric tons, a 6.8% increase in national output. Strong sugarcane performance in Guangxi and Yunnan is driving the improvement, with the southern campaign continuing to exceed expectations as the northern beet sugar campaign concludes successfully. The higher domestic output is reducing China's reliance on sugar imports and reinforcing self-sufficiency. Nonetheless, future import volumes and pricing strategies will remain sensitive to global crude oil price movements and supply decisions from major exporters, particularly Brazil.
• Thailand's sugar production holds steady at 10,500,000 metric tons, with domestic consumption recorded at 2,350,000 metric tons, predominantly in the industrial sector. Input and packaging costs have surged by 40%, though industrial buyers have been insulated from pass-through price increases in the interest of market stability. Retail price adjustments are scheduled for May 2026, which may affect household consumption patterns. The Gasahol E20 program also presents a potential redirection of sugarcane toward ethanol production, introducing further variability into sugar output and pricing.
• South Africa is pursuing a significant revitalization of its sugar sector, anchored by an R1.8 billion restoration of the Gledhow Mill. The investment aims to lift production, support local employment, and advance energy efficiency through sugarcane byproduct utilization and biofuel development. The industry continues to face headwinds from import competition and rising costs, particularly for refined sugar, and the long-term success of these initiatives will depend on supportive policy measures and consistent evaluation of their implementation.
• India is shifting strategic focus toward ethanol production from sugarcane as part of a broader effort to reduce dependence on imported liquefied petroleum gas and strengthen energy security. Despite robust current sugar production levels, increased ethanol blending targets could tighten domestic sugar availability and constrain export capacity. India's policy trajectory on this front will be a key variable for global sugar market dynamics in the months ahead.

Global Sugar Market Weekly Summary: April 5, 2026

• The global sugar market is on course to return to a surplus in the 2025/26 season, shaped by strong production growth in India, incremental gains in Brazil and Thailand, and an increasingly influential ethanol policy dynamic across major producing nations.
• India has posted a significant production increase, reaching approximately 27,120,000 metric tons through March 2026, a 9% rise year-on-year. The Indian Sugar Mills Association projects the season could peak at 29,300,000 metric tons, representing 12% growth over the prior year. A key driver of this higher sugar output is the downward revision in ethanol production estimates, from 5,000,000 to 3,400,000 metric tons, which redirected more cane toward sugar. The government has also approved exports of 2,000,000 metric tons for the 2025/26 season, adding meaningful volume to global trade flows. Delayed factory operations and ongoing shifts in ethanol policy remain variables to watch.
• In Brazil's Center South region, sugar production edged up 0.7% to 40,250,000 metric tons. However, rising crude oil prices are prompting mills to consider redirecting more cane toward ethanol, which could constrain future sugar output despite projections for a record 44,700,000 metric tons in the upcoming season. The balance between sugar and ethanol allocation will remain closely tied to energy market conditions.
• Thailand maintained steady performance, setting a production target of 10,250,000 metric tons for the season, a modest 2% year-on-year increase broadly in line with local expectations.
• At the global level, agencies including the USDA, Zarnikov, and Green Pool project a surplus ranging from 1,220,000 to 8,300,000 metric tons for 2025/26. This surplus is expected to exert downward pressure on prices, though disruptions such as the Strait of Hormuz closure provide intermittent support. Price stability will likely depend on the interplay between expanded production capacity, particularly from Brazil, and national ethanol policy adjustments in the period ahead.

This episode highlights contrasting developments in the global sugar market.

• A major focus is China’s sugar beet planting in Baicheng County, Xinjiang, where large-scale mechanized operations are using precision agriculture techniques to improve efficiency and sustainability. The project covers 10,000 mu and is designed to reduce water use by 30 percent while targeting high yields. A nearby processing facility with annual capacity of 1 million tons adds further value by converting byproducts into livestock feed and organic fertilizer, reinforcing a more integrated regional supply chain. 
• The episode notes that although China’s national sugar output is projected at 11.7 million tons, the Baicheng initiative represents only a small share of total production. Its significance lies less in scale and more in what it signals: reduced regional import dependence, greater cost efficiency, and a push toward modernized, contract-based production and processing systems. 
• In India, the focus shifts to Maharashtra, where sugar mills are under severe financial pressure at the end of the crushing season. Of 208 mills, 159 have not fully paid farmers, with arrears reaching 39.68 billion rupees. This is happening even as the state has crushed 101.58 million tons of cane, showing that large production volumes have not translated into healthy mill finances. National sugar output remains robust at an expected 29.3 million tons, helped in part by reduced ethanol diversion, but mills continue to struggle with liquidity due to statutory cane pricing and limited flexibility in raw sugar selling prices. 
• Overall, the episode presents a global sugar market shaped by very different regional realities. China is emphasizing modernization, resource efficiency, and integrated processing, while India is confronting structural financial strain within a high-output system.