This episode provides a global overview of the sugar market.

• India's sugar production is forecasted to exceed expectations for the 2025–2026 season, with estimates ranging from 31 million to 35.3 million metric tons, an increase of up to 25 percent year over year. This growth is attributed to favorable monsoon conditions and a reduction in sugarcane diversion for ethanol, now down to 3.4 million metric tons. Despite a lowered export cap of 1.5 million metric tons, down from the initially expected 2 million, short-term sugar prices rallied before stabilizing due to broader global supply forecasts. India is also evaluating a potential increase in ethanol procurement prices, though no decision has been finalized.
• In Brazil, sugar production continues to expand. The government agency CONAB raised its forecast to 45 million metric tons for the 2025–2026 crop, reflecting a 16.4 percent year-over-year increase for October. Cumulative production in the center-south region has reached 38.1 million metric tons, applying downward pressure on global prices, which have also responded to currency volatility.
• Thailand's projected sugar output stands at 10.5 million metric tons, a 5 percent increase from the prior year. The country maintains consistent export levels, strengthening its role as a reliable supplier amid global market shifts, including policy changes in India.
• Overall, the global sugar market has transitioned from an anticipated deficit to a surplus, now projected at 1.63 million metric tons. The International Sugar Organization has raised the global production estimate to 181.8 million metric tons, up 3.2 percent from earlier projections. While price volatility persists, particularly in response to India’s domestic policy shifts, the broader market is adjusting to a phase of higher supply and moderated pricing.

This episode delivers a strategic overview of the global sugar market as of November 16, 2025.

• Brazil is leading global output growth, with Conab projecting a record 45 million metric tons of sugar for the season. This expansion is driven by favorable weather and improved cane processing. Mid-October projections from DataGrow for the 2026–2027 crop remain strong at 44 million metric tons, with Brazil’s Center-South regions showing the most significant gains.
• India’s sugar industry is also experiencing renewed momentum. The Indian Sugar Mills Association estimates production will rise to 31 million metric tons, marking an 18.8 percent increase from the previous season. Contributing factors include favorable monsoon conditions and a reduction in ethanol diversion. Even with potential export limitations, India may still allocate up to 4 million metric tons for international markets if current restrictions persist.
• Thailand is forecasted to grow sugar production by 5 percent, reaching 10.5 million metric tons for the 2025–2026 period. This boost is supported by better yields and strong export performance, facilitated by a structured trade environment that continues to back industry expansion.
• The collective output increase across these major producers is creating a substantial global surplus. Zarnikov has adjusted its forecast to reflect an 8.7 million metric ton surplus for the 2025–2026 season. Major trading hubs like New York and London have seen downward price trends, though periodic rebounds have occurred due to technical trading factors and minor export constraints.

This episode provides a comprehensive overview in the global sugar market.

• South Africa has experienced a dramatic increase in sugar imports, rising more than 400% from 35,730 tons in 2024 to nearly 149,000 tons in 2025. This surge, primarily driven by cheaper Brazilian imports, has triggered a 13% drop in domestic sugar sales and resulted in financial losses exceeding R760 million for local producers. The effects have been most severe in rural areas like KwaZulu-Natal and Mpumalanga, where job security in the sugar sector is increasingly at risk. In response, the South African Cane Growers Association is calling for stronger local procurement policies and government action to protect domestic industry.
• Pakistan has mandated a unified sugarcane crushing start date of November 15, 2025, aiming to streamline operations and ensure timely payments to farmers. The policy is reinforced by the threat of government action against mills that fail to comply, seeking to align interests between millers and growers and promote a more efficient production cycle.
• India is set to double its sugar export allocation to 2 million metric tons for the new season, following a rebound in production to 30.95 million tons. This move is a strategic adjustment after last season’s export limitations caused by drought. Meanwhile, Brazil remains a dominant force, with expected production reaching 45 million metric tons, which continues to exert downward pressure on global sugar prices. The value of the Brazilian real also plays a crucial role in shaping international pricing trends.
• Thailand forecasts a 5% increase in sugar output, reaching 10.5 million metric tons, reinforcing its global market presence. In the Eurasian Economic Union, Russia leads regional production with 3.56 million tons, followed by Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan, underscoring the bloc’s growing refining capacity and contribution to the global supply chain.

Global Sugar Market Insights: 2010–2025

Supply and demand are key drivers of sugar, but there are other structural forces that drive prices.  Beyond  the simple "how much sugar is being grown (supply)  and how much is being eaten (demand) - there are five additional forces that drive pricing —currency, energy, macroeconomics, logistics, and weather

Currency as a Price Lever
Discover how foreign exchange movements, especially the Brazilian Real (BRL) and Indian Rupee (INR), impact global sugar flows. Understand why a weaker BRL tends to flood the market with cheaper exports, while India’s currency effect is filtered through layers of government policy, subsidies, and export controls.

The Ethanol–Energy Tug-of-War
Explore the tight link between crude oil prices and sugar supply. When oil is expensive, sugarcane gets diverted into ethanol—tightening sugar availability. This dynamic, most powerful in Brazil and now actively used in India, makes energy prices a key signal for sugar traders.

Macro Headwinds and Freight Disruptions
We examine how interest rates, a strong U.S. Dollar, and global risk sentiment impact speculative flows into sugar. Plus, hear how logistics shocks—from COVID-era shipping chaos to Red Sea security threats and the Panama Canal drought—have reshaped regional trade routes and price spreads.

The New Global Cost Floor
Understand why the 2021–2022 surge in fertilizer, fuel, and labor costs permanently altered global production economics. A new, higher cost base now underpins ICE #11 futures, with traders and producers adjusting expectations accordingly.

Weather, Sentiment, and Speculation
From El Niño swings to unpredictable rainfall in India and Thailand, weather is no longer just a supply issue—it’s a pricing catalyst. Forecasts alone can spark massive speculative moves. Learn how CropGPT’s models integrate climate data and policy updates to forecast market sentiment in real time.

This episode delivers a concise overview of the global sugar market as of November 2, 2025.

• Brazil’s Center-South region reported a sugar production of 33.52 million metric tons for the 2025-2026 season, reflecting a modest 0.8% increase from the previous year. Over half of the harvested cane was directed toward sugar, though ethanol demand and weather variability continue to influence output decisions. Despite strong export activity, Brazil faces increasing global competition due to rising surpluses and changing domestic sugar-to-ethanol production ratios.
• India's sugar output is forecast to rise 19% to 34.9 million metric tons, driven by favorable monsoon conditions. With domestic consumption around 28.5 million metric tons, the resulting surplus has triggered policy debates on exports, ethanol diversion, and market stability. Thailand expects production between 10.3 and 10.5 million metric tons, supported by beneficial rainfall and sustainability investments aimed at improving long-term yields.
• Indonesia plans to reduce sugar imports to between 3.0 and 3.1 million metric tons by 2026 as part of its strategy to boost local production amid global price fluctuations. Tanzania has achieved net exporter status, shipping 85,000 metric tons in 2025 and continuing efforts toward self-sufficiency. In contrast, the Philippines faces a 7.9% production decline due to pest outbreaks and extreme weather, prompting a halt in exports and controversial import policies that have stirred domestic industry backlash.

This episode provides a comprehensive overview of the global sugar market.

• Vollin has achieved notable gains in sugar beet yields, reaching 65 tons per hectare, a 10-ton increase from the prior year, despite a reduced cultivation area. However, concerns persist about profitability due to weak market prices, with yields needing to approach 80 tons per hectare to ensure viability.
• In Brazil, the Center-South region has seen a 10.8 percent rise in sugar production, contributing significantly to the global surplus. Forecasts suggest production could reach 44 million tons, reinforcing a bearish market outlook. Covrig Analytics and BMI Group project global surpluses of 4.1 and 10.5 million tons respectively.
• India’s Muzaffar Nagar is implementing a refined sugarcane allocation strategy as the new crushing season begins, favoring high-capacity mills and introducing new purchasing centers to ease logistics and farmer relations. Thailand continues to expand production, expecting to reach 10.5 million metric tons, while Tanzania has launched its first sugar export initiative due to a 50,000-ton surplus above domestic demand.
• Market sentiment remains bearish, driven by increasing stockpiles and production in key regions like Brazil, India, and Thailand. Argentina’s Tucuman province reports a 3 percent increase in sugarcane processing and anticipates continued growth, adding to the global supply pressure.

This episode provides a comprehensive overview of the global sugar market.

• Europe's leading sugar producer, Südzucker, reported an 82% drop in operating profits, falling to €20 million in Q2 of the 2025–26 fiscal year, compared to €114 million the previous year. This decline stems from unfavorable market conditions within the European Union, most notably a steep drop in sugar prices from €775 per ton in July 2024 to €534 per ton in July 2025. The EU's plans to expand sugar import quotas, particularly from Ukraine, may further complicate the regional market.
• Brazil continues to play a dominant role in global supply. UNICA data indicates a 15.7% year-over-year increase in sugar production from the Center-South region, reaching 3.62 million metric tons as of early September. Improved extraction rates (now 53.49%) helped drive this output despite slight cumulative production declines. However, there has been a shift in the production mix, with increased ethanol output reducing the sugar mix to 51.2%, particularly in São Paulo and the Central-West.
• India's sugar production outlook has improved following a monsoon season that exceeded averages by 8%. The National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories projects a 19% increase in output, totaling 34.9 million metric tons. Exports could reach 4 million metric tons, reflecting the country’s enhanced production capacity. Similarly, Thailand expects a 5% rise in output, reaching 10.5 million metric tons for the 2025–26 season, building on a 14% increase from the prior year.
• In Ukraine, sugar beet harvest progress reached 35% by October 10, 2025, with 3.44 million tons harvested from 69,100 hectares. The EU’s plan to increase Ukrainian import quotas may significantly influence both local and broader European sugar markets.
• Globally, the sector anticipates a record surplus due to rising outputs from Brazil, India, and Thailand. However, this surplus is set against potential production constraints driven by weather variability in key growing regions, including Brazil and India. 

This episode covers major developments in the global sugar market

• Brazil remains the dominant player, with its Center-South region reporting a 15.72 percent year-over-year increase in sugar production for early September 2025. This rise is driven by a 6.9 percent increase in sugarcane crushing, totaling 46 million metric tons. However, recoverable sugar per ton declined by 3.93 percent, impacting overall yield. Ethanol production saw mixed results, with corn-based ethanol growing 16 percent, while other sources declined slightly. Concerns over reduced yields and strong global demand pushed New York sugar futures for March 2026 up by 1.36 percent.
• In India, a favorable monsoon season is expected to drive a 19 percent increase in sugar output, targeting 34.9 million metric tons for the 2025–2026 season. Despite this growth, the sector faces headwinds from uncertain ethanol pricing and evolving government policies on exports and ethanol production. These factors necessitate timely interventions to maintain market balance.
• Pakistan is experiencing instability due to disrupted deliveries from mills in Sindh to Karachi, prompting government-imposed imports and price controls. The situation is worsened by erratic sugar trade policies and environmental issues, such as pest infestations and flooding, contributing to production uncertainty.
• Thailand projects a moderate 5 percent increase in sugar output, reaching 10.5 million metric tons. This expansion, alongside a 4.7 percent global production increase forecasted by the USDA (totaling 189.3 million metric tons), signals a potential global surplus that may depress prices if demand fails to match supply.
• Policy shifts favoring ethanol production in Brazil and India continue to influence global sugar markets. These changes are reshaping production incentives and pricing structures across major producing countries, adding complexity to the sugar market outlook.

This week’s episode highlights key shifts and policy developments across major sugar-producing nations.

• In Malaysia, the Galen Centre for Health and Social Policy has proposed ending government subsidies for sugar, citing the financial burden of related health conditions such as diabetes and cardiovascular disease. Despite the government collecting RM300 million from sugar-sweetened beverage taxes, it allocates RM500 million annually to subsidize sugar. Galen's CEO, Azrul Khalib, has also called for eliminating outpatient and specialist care fees to reduce financial barriers to healthcare access.
• India’s sugar sector continues to grapple with supply and operational challenges. In Uttar Pradesh, the Kisan Cooperative Sugar Mill in Bijnor is unable to expand its crushing capacity due to limited cane availability. Meanwhile, Lakshmi Sugar Mill in Iqbalpur is working to settle INR 20 crore in unpaid cane payments ahead of the new crushing season by increasing worker shifts. In Bihar, the government has introduced an additional payment of INR 10 per quintal for sugarcane, alongside other farmer support measures such as tool subsidies and jaggery production incentives.
• In the Philippines, the Sugar Regulatory Administration rejoined the International Society of Sugar Cane Technologists Congress after a 40-year absence. This reentry aims to facilitate the adoption of global best practices, including the development of climate-resilient sugarcane through molecular breeding techniques.
• Brazil has seen a surge in sugar demand, contributing to rising global prices. The country recorded an 18% year-on-year increase in sugar output for August. However, there are growing concerns over the diversion of sugar to ethanol production due to escalating crude oil prices. Globally, the sugar market is adjusting to fluctuating demand and supply conditions. Stonex forecasts a global sugar surplus of 2.8 million metric tons for the current season. India is expected to divert excess sugar to ethanol production and may increase exports, driven by surplus levels and policy shifts.
• Major producers including Brazil, India, and Thailand remain central to global market dynamics through their production volumes and export strategies. These developments underscore the evolving intersection of health policy, economic strategy, and international trade in shaping the future of the global sugar industry.

This episode highlights the latest developments in the global sugar market.

• In Pakistan, sugarcane crops are under severe pressure due to widespread pest outbreaks, notably perilla and whitefly. These pests have spread from the north to southern regions, causing substantial damage. The government has launched farmer awareness campaigns and is promoting the use of insecticides such as imidacloprid. Despite these interventions, the migration of pests continues to threaten the country’s sugarcane output.
• Ukraine's sugar sector is experiencing a downturn, with four major refineries, including Kapitanivsky and Krasylivsky, opting out of operations for the 2025–2026 season. Industry overcapacity and weak demand are the main drivers behind these closures, raising long-term concerns about domestic production viability.
• In India’s Karnataka state, sugarcane farmers are calling for increased support. Concerns include losses from excessive rainfall, low support prices, and delayed payments. Farmers demand higher state advisory pricing over the existing fair and remunerative price structure, along with compensation for crop damage.
• China’s pledge to send 19,000 tons of refined sugar to North Korea coincides with the 80th anniversary of the Workers' Party. The aid aims to stabilize North Korea’s food prices and improve public sentiment, reflecting both humanitarian and diplomatic motivations.
• Meanwhile, in Islamabad, Pakistani authorities have introduced standardized sugar pricing to prevent profiteering and ensure affordability. As of mid-September 2025, the retail price is fixed at Rs. 177 per kilogram, marking a clear effort to stabilize domestic markets amid global price volatility.
• Collectively, these developments reflect the complex mix of agronomic, economic, and political factors shaping sugar market trends worldwide.