This week’s episode offers a comprehensive view of the shifting dynamics in the global sugar market.

• In Brazil, adverse weather conditions have prompted a downward revision of sugar production forecasts by 3.1%, now expected at 44.5 million metric tons for the 2025-2026 season. In the Center-South region alone, output through July dropped by 7.8% year on year, totaling 19.3 million metric tons. In response, sugar mills are increasingly prioritizing sugar over ethanol production to maximize revenue amid lower cane yields.
• Conversely, India is experiencing a robust upswing in sugar production, projected to rise by 25% to 35.3 million metric tons. Favorable monsoon conditions and expanded cane acreage are key contributors. This growth has encouraged India to pursue export approvals for up to 2 million metric tons, a move that could have notable implications for global sugar pricing as the government evaluates broader export allowances.
• Thailand continues its recovery in the sugar sector, with production expected to increase by 2% to 10.3 million metric tons. This follows a 14% surge in the previous season. Thai sugar mills are strengthening their global export presence, potentially contributing to a softening of international sugar prices due to increased supply.
• In Pakistan, domestic sugar shortages have led the government to seek substantial imports to stabilize prices. The Trading Corporation of Pakistan is currently soliciting bids for 100,000 metric tons of refined sugar as part of a broader effort to control surging retail costs.
• Globally, the sugar market is sending mixed signals. While Kzarnikov forecasts a global surplus of 7.5 million metric tons, factors like reduced output in Brazil and significant import needs from countries such as Pakistan and China are driving short-term price increases. Overall, global sugar dynamics remain highly sensitive to regional production fluctuations and the import strategies of major consumer nations.

The Bitter Truth Behind Europe's Sweet Industry

This episode unpacks the complex transformation of Europe's sugar industry, tracing its evolution from a tightly regulated quota system to a volatile open market shaped by global trade, policy, and climate shifts. While sugar remains a staple in everyday life, its path to the consumer has become increasingly intricate, shaped by geopolitical developments, economic pressures, and consumer behavior.

The discussion begins by outlining how the EU, once the world's largest producer of beet sugar under a strict quota system, dismantled these controls in 2017. This liberalization initially led to a surge in production, followed by a period of severe volatility, market contractions, and structural changes. The EU now finds itself as a near self-sufficient yet net-importing bloc, increasingly influenced by external suppliers like Ukraine, which surprisingly accounted for 16% of EU sugar imports in recent years due to wartime trade concessions.

Meanwhile, the UK's sugar strategy diverged sharply after Brexit. The country now relies more heavily on global imports, especially from non-EU countries, under a new tariff-free policy that has favored cane refiners such as Tate & Lyle. This move restructured the domestic market and increased the UK’s dependence on overseas supply.

Demand for sugar across Europe remains relatively stable, though health-driven policies like sugar taxes and shifting consumer preferences are pushing manufacturers to reduce usage. Unlike the US, Europe has not embraced high fructose corn syrup, favoring natural sucrose instead. However, rising production costs, weak harvests, and global supply tightness have pushed sugar prices to a high of €820 per ton by late 2023.

The podcast also explores the consolidation of sugar production. Over half of the EU's sugar factories have closed since 2006, concentrating the market in the hands of five major players: Sudzucker, Tereos, Nordzucker, Pfeifer & Langen, and Associated British Foods. These firms now dominate the European sugar landscape, operating across borders and reshaping supply chains, though not without significant social costs for rural communities affected by factory closures.

Trade policies remain a key variable. The EU maintains high tariffs to protect its producers, while the UK pursues more liberal trade deals. Ongoing discussions, such as the potential EU-Mercosur agreement, and the impact of the Ukraine conflict, illustrate how quickly geopolitical changes can shift supply dynamics.

Logistical challenges are also mounting. Rising fuel prices, stricter emissions regulations, and sustainability demands are forcing the industry to rethink transportation and sourcing strategies. Despite a shrinking workforce, sugar remains a vital rural employer, with increasing pressure to balance efficiency with environmental and social responsibility.

The episode identifies four strategic trends: ongoing consolidation, sustained consumer preference for natural sucrose, geopolitical unpredictability affecting trade flows, and growing sustainability imperatives. These forces, the hosts argue, will shape the future of Europe's sugar market, demanding adaptability over expansion and raising critical questions about power, policy, and resilience in this essential industry.

This episode provides a detailed overview of recent developments in the global sugar market, highlighting policy shifts, regional production trends, and evolving international dynamics.

• Maharashtra's sugar sector is expected to benefit from a new sustainability-focused policy introduced by the state government. This initiative aims to enhance production efficiency while conserving water and maintaining soil health. The West Indian Sugar Mills Association, which represents a majority of the region’s sugar operations, underscores strong private sector involvement in this transition.
• India is forecasted to produce 35 million metric tons of sugar in the 2025-26 season, a 19 percent increase driven by favorable monsoon conditions. The Indian Sugar Mills Association is advocating for 2 million metric tons of sugar exports, a move that could influence global prices. In Assam, plans to subsidize sugar for eligible citizens aim to ease household financial stress. However, national sugar prices remain volatile, affected by higher production projections and potential export limitations.
• In Brazil, sugar output is projected to reach a record 44.7 million metric tons for 2025-26. Brazilian mills are prioritizing sugar production over ethanol due to weak ethanol economics and ongoing drought conditions. Thailand also reports growing output, expected to reach 10.3 million metric tons, building on a 14 percent increase the prior year.
• Globally, the market is facing a structural surplus, with total production anticipated to reach 189.3 million metric tons. The projected global surplus of 7.5 million metric tons is the highest in eight years, creating downward pressure on international prices. While temporary demand surges from China and Pakistan offer some relief, the overarching market remains heavily influenced by weather patterns, national policies, and trade decisions across key producing countries.

This episode delivers an overview of the global sugar market as of August 17, 2025.

• Brazil is facing a potential decline in sugarcane production for the 2025–2026 season. Kovrig Analytics predicts output may fall below 600 million metric tons, diverging significantly from the Brazilian government's estimate of 663.4 million metric tons. Although sugar output rose 15% in early July, cumulative production through June was down 14.3% year-on-year, totaling 12.25 million metric tons. These supply pressures have led to elevated net short positions in New York sugar futures, suggesting possible price volatility.
• India is projected to see a 19% increase in sugar production, reaching 35 million metric tons, supported by monsoon rains 4% above normal. This boost may prompt the Indian government to permit sugar exports, potentially easing global prices. Thailand's sugar output is also expected to rise by 14% to 10 million metric tons, with an additional 2% increase projected, reinforcing the global surplus trend.
• In Pakistan, a surge in retail sugar prices has triggered government intervention via imports. The Trading Corporation of Pakistan has procured 55,000 metric tons of white sugar from European suppliers. Meanwhile, the United States is set to achieve record domestic sugar production, estimated at 9.42 million short tons, driven by gains in both beet and cane sugar.
• However, not all regions are seeing positive trends. In Uttar Pradesh, India, sugarcane crops have been affected by red rot disease and severe weather, lowering the sugar recovery rate from 10.6% to 9.7%. Local authorities are implementing recovery measures to mitigate further losses.

This episode provides an in-depth look at global sugar market developments for the week of August 10, 2025.

• Indonesia is intensifying efforts to achieve sugar self-sufficiency, targeting full coverage of household demand by 2028 and industrial needs by 2030. This initiative responds to persistent trade deficits driven by sugar imports. Despite domestic demand projected to reach 9.1 million tons by 2025, production is expected to be only 2.9 million tons. Government measures include modernizing outdated mills, expanding sugarcane plantation areas by 200,000 to 500,000 hectares, improving farmer financing access, and committing significant investments of between $612.6 million and $2.45 billion.
• In Uganda, plans are underway for the government to acquire the Mayuge Sugar Factory to support farmers in the Busoga region. President Yoweri Museveni has highlighted the profitability challenges faced by small landholders, recommending crop diversification. The move is part of broader reforms to ensure equitable profit distribution in the sugar sector and to raise living standards through industrial modernization.
• In Nepal, over 15,000 farmers in the Mahathiri District are protesting the removal of a 70-rupee-per-quintal sugarcane subsidy from the national budget, warning of further demonstrations if the subsidy is not reinstated and farmer voices are not included in pricing decisions.
• Pakistan has canceled a tender for 100,000 metric tons of sugar due to high bid prices and concerns raised by the International Monetary Fund over planned tax exemptions and subsidies. Brazil has brought a case before the World Trade Organization against the United States in response to higher tariffs on sugar and other key exports, a dispute stemming from tariff escalations during the Trump administration.
• Global production trends are also in focus. Brazil’s sugar output rose 15 percent in early July, influencing world prices. India, benefiting from a favorable monsoon, may authorize additional sugar exports, potentially leading to a global production surplus. These developments highlight the interconnected nature of agricultural policy, trade relations, and commodity pricing on the global stage.

This episode covers key developments in the global sugar market as of August 3, 2025.

• In Pakistan, sugar prices have surged to a record PKR 188.44 per kilogram due to a significant drop in domestic production from 6.8 million to 5.8 million tons. The situation is exacerbated by restrictive trade policies and market hoarding. Initial approval to export 765,000 metric tons worsened local scarcity. In response, the government allowed the import of 500,000 metric tons of white sugar and initiated regulatory price interventions in coordination with the Pakistan Sugar Mills Association. Despite these measures, price stability and consistent supply remain elusive, hampered by uneven enforcement across provinces.
• Brazil's sugar sector shows mixed outcomes. Production fell 14.33 percent year over year, with sugarcane crush volumes dropping to approximately 163.57 million tons due to unfavorable weather. However, export performance remains strong, showcasing Brazil's capacity to meet international demand. Market recovery is anticipated if weather conditions and global demand patterns improve.
• India's sugar industry is showing signs of revival after an 18.38 percent production dip in the previous cycle caused by poor weather and increased ethanol output. By July 2025, production had fallen to 25.18 million tons. Optimism for the next season is driven by improved monsoon conditions and proactive government support, with forecasts pointing to a rebound to 35 million tons. The government is also considering expanding sugar export quotas to leverage this growth.
• Globally, the sugar market is forecasted to reach 189.3 million metric tons in the current cycle, despite ongoing regional supply pressures and pricing volatility. Major producers such as India, Brazil, and Thailand are navigating diverse challenges shaped by climatic variability and policy shifts. Trade dynamics are further influenced by policy changes, including increased import strategies from Pakistan and China, as well as evolving U.S. tariff regulations. While production may peak, the market remains highly sensitive to environmental conditions and regulatory developments.

This episode presents a detailed snapshot of the global sugar market as of July 27, 2025.

• Brazil is projected to achieve a record sugar output of 44.7 million tons, driven by favorable dry weather that has expedited cane harvesting in the Center-South region. This 2.3% year-on-year increase is expected to weigh on global sugar prices. Brazilian mills are increasingly prioritizing sugar production over ethanol due to current market and weather conditions.
• In India, sugar output for the 2025–2026 season is anticipated to surge by 25% to 35.3 million tons. The growth is attributed to expanded farming acreage and favorable monsoon rains. The potential removal of export restrictions from October 2025 could further boost global supply and influence prices.
• Thailand is also seeing a production rebound, with a 14% increase this year and an additional 2% growth forecasted for the next season. As a key global exporter, Thailand's gains intensify competition with Brazil and India. Meanwhile, Pakistan is seeking to stabilize domestic sugar prices by importing large quantities, including a tender for 100,000 metric tons, despite earlier logistical hurdles.
• Kazakhstan is attracting foreign investment for sugar infrastructure development. Turkey’s Safi Holding plans to build a refinery with an annual capacity of 140,000 tons, reflecting broader efforts to strengthen agricultural capacity in the region.
• Overall, global sugar market dynamics are being shaped by rising outputs from major producers. The USDA projects a 4.7% global increase in sugar production for the 2025–2026 cycle, contributing to an anticipated surplus. This outlook signals potential price pressures and may lead to shifts in trade flows and strategic responses from leading sugar-producing nations.

This episode presents a comprehensive overview of the global sugar market as of July 20, 2025.

• In the United States, sugar consumption is projected to rise to 11.5 million metric tons following Coca-Cola’s decision to replace high fructose corn syrup with cane sugar. This strategic move, alongside USDA's new import restrictions on specialty sugars, is expected to bolster domestic markets and trigger a bullish trend in regional sugar prices.
• Brazil, the largest global sugar exporter, is facing a 14.3 percent year-on-year decline in sugar output from its Center-South region due to adverse weather conditions. Despite these challenges, the country is investing in technical measures to improve pest resistance and sugar content in crops.
• India, meanwhile, anticipates a 19 percent increase in sugar production, reaching 35 million metric tons. This growth, driven by expanded cane acreage and favorable monsoons, is compounded by the lifting of export restrictions, amplifying India's influence on global markets. Thailand is also set to contribute to the global surplus with a forecasted 14 percent rise in sugar production for the 2024–2025 season, totaling 10.2 million metric tons.
• In Pakistan, the government is attempting to stabilize domestic prices through tax waivers on sugar imports. However, these policies have drawn criticism from institutions such as the International Monetary Fund. The Philippines is responding to pest threats with innovative biological control methods aimed at securing yields and maintaining market stability.
• Overall, the global sugar industry is shaped by the intersection of rising demand, production variability, and evolving trade and environmental policies. These forces continue to influence both immediate pricing trends and the long-term outlook of the sector.

This episode provides a focused update on the global sugar market as of July 13, 2025.

• Pakistan has introduced a two-phase sugar import policy to control domestic prices. The government, through the Trading Corporation of Pakistan, plans to import 350,000 tons of sugar—initially 200,000 tons followed by another 150,000 tons. All duties and taxes on these imports have been waived to reduce inflation and maintain transparency and quality.
• India is set for a 19 percent rise in sugar production for the 2025–26 season, reaching 35 million metric tons. Despite continued export restrictions to protect local supply, an additional 1 million metric tons has been cleared for export. Expansion of the Bhag Pat sugar mill in Uttar Pradesh is expected to enhance local cane processing capacity. Thailand’s production is also climbing, with a 14 percent year-over-year increase forecast at 10 million metric tons. These gains are exerting downward pressure on global prices.
• In contrast, Brazil is facing a 14.6 percent decline in sugar output in its Center-South region due to unfavorable weather. Nonetheless, rising production in other countries is balancing overall supply concerns. In the Philippines, the Sugar Regulatory Administration has approved the import of 424,000 metric tons of sugar to safeguard future supply, classifying the imports as reserve sugar despite having sufficient buffer stocks.
• South Africa is grappling with a 30 percent tariff imposed by the United States, potentially weakening its competitive position in the U.S. market. Local producers are also contending with an influx of subsidized sugar imports and are urging government support to counteract these pressures.
• Barbados has recorded a strong sugarcane harvest yielding 96,000 tons, converting into 3.8 million kilograms of sugar and 6.8 million kilograms of molasses. However, disputes over industry governance are limiting the economic potential of this success. Collectively, these developments outline a dynamic and uneven global sugar market shaped by both opportunity and policy-driven constraint.

This episode presents a detailed overview of the global sugar market as of July 6, 2025, with updates from key producing countries and emerging policy shifts shaping the sector.

• In Pakistan, the government has approved the private-sector importation of 500,000 metric tons of sugar to counter market shortages and stabilize prices. The move follows warnings about black marketing and price manipulation, with enforcement measures prepared to address violations. Despite these efforts, no subsidies or tax exemptions will be provided for imports, due to ongoing financial constraints and IMF-related commitments. The decision reflects the complex policy and market interplay influencing Pakistan's sugar sector.
• In India, Bihar has launched a sugarcane mechanization scheme aimed at reducing cultivation costs and increasing productivity. Backed by INR10 crore, the initiative has already attracted over 900 applications on its first day. The program offers subsidies for up to three machines per farmer, selected through an online lottery. Regional participation rates vary, highlighting differences in adoption across the state. This program, along with a R49 crore investment in sugarcane development, underlines Bihar’s push for agricultural modernization.
• In Brazil, frost risks have driven up sugar prices and spurred a rapid rebound in futures markets. While production forecasts indicate a slight rise, adverse weather and a policy-driven shift toward ethanol production have complicated output projections. These developments highlight Brazil’s strategic balancing of climate impacts with long-term bioenergy goals, reinforcing its influential role in global sugar supply dynamics.
• On the global stage, sugar production is on the rise, with countries like India and Thailand reporting higher output projections. Despite a recent decline in global sugar prices due to expected surpluses, nations are deploying technological innovations and export policy reforms to improve efficiency and align with sustainability objectives.