Global Sugar Market Update – Week of March 16, 2025

This week’s report examines Brazil’s growing ethanol production, India's sugar challenges, Pakistan’s pricing issues, and Ukraine’s surging export performance, offering a sharp view of shifting dynamics in the global sugar market.

Key Themes Discussed:

Brazil’s Ethanol and Sugar Production Landscape

• Brazil projects a significant 33.8 billion liters of ethanol production for the 2025–26 season, reinforcing its shift towards sustainable energy.
• However, 400,000 hectares of sugarcane have suffered fire damage, putting downward pressure on cane availability.
• Despite setbacks, sugar output is forecasted at 40.7 million tons, slightly higher than the previous year.
• Exports via Santos Port have dropped sharply (-45.3% YoY), though 72.5% of sugar export volumes have been hedged, indicating cautious optimism among Brazilian producers.

India’s Sugar Production Challenges

• India's sugar production forecast for the 2024–25 season falls below 27 million tons, affected by:
  • Increased diversion of cane for ethanol
  • Lower cane yields
  • Early closure of sugar mills, especially in Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh, and Karnataka
• Government measures such as sugar export approvals and ethanol price adjustments are in place but face tepid industry responses.
• Integration of AI technologies in sugar manufacturing is emerging as a potential efficiency booster for India's urban mills.

Pakistan’s Market Volatility

• Pakistan produced 6.843 million tons of sugar in 2024, achieving surplus status.
• Despite sufficient supply, domestic prices are rising sharply, prompting interventions like price caps and anti-hoarding measures to ensure affordability during Ramadan.

Thailand’s Expansion and Risks

• Thailand expects sugar production to rise to 11.5 million tons in the 2025–26 season, buoyed by increased cane output.
• However, China’s ban on Thai sugar syrup imports poses a risk to export revenues and highlights vulnerabilities in regional trade relations.

Ukraine’s Strong Export Performance

• Ukraine exported 403,500 tons of sugar in the first half of the 2024–25 marketing year, largely to the European Union.
• Domestic production remains robust at 1.8 million tons, solidifying Ukraine’s growing influence in the global sugar trade.

Strategic Implications:

• Brazil's hedging strategy reflects cautious optimism amid volatile market conditions.
• India's ethanol shift is critical for balancing surplus management and renewable energy targets, but profitability concerns remain.
• Pakistan’s pricing instability amid surplus output stresses the need for better internal market management.
• Thailand’s production surge may exert additional downward pressure on global sugar prices unless offset by new export opportunities.
• Ukraine’s expansion strengthens its strategic foothold in European and global sugar markets.

Listen to this episode for:

• Brazil’s evolving ethanol dominance and sugar export challenges
• India’s ethanol-driven production shifts and AI integration in sugar mills
• Pakistan’s paradox of surplus and soaring prices
• Thailand’s opportunity versus export risk scenario
• Ukraine’s growing sugar export power and market resilience