Global Sugar Market Update – Week of March 23, 2025

This week’s report captures India’s balancing act between supply and exports, Europe's trade adjustments, weather-driven setbacks in Brazil, industry shifts in Bangladesh, and Pakistan’s battle against rising sugar prices.

Key Themes Discussed:

India’s Strategic Market Management

• India maintains strategic control over the sugar market with an initial export allowance of 1 million metric tons and strong stockpiles of 5.4 million metric tons.
• Analysts predict increased production by 2025, easing near-term supply concerns, despite expectations that opening stocks could drop to 3.78 million tons.
• The government remains vigilant, ready to intervene if necessary to stabilize domestic prices.

European Union Moves to Protect Domestic Producers

• The European Commission plans to curb Ukrainian sugar imports to support internal market stability and protect EU sugar prices.
• Specific schedules are yet to be released, but protective measures signal a shift in European sugar trade dynamics.

Brazil's Weather-Related Setbacks

• Production forecasts in São Paulo were trimmed by 2 million metric tons, adjusting Brazil’s national output expectation to 44 million metric tons.
• Unfavorable weather impacts global supply concerns, even as Brazil remains a key player.

Thailand’s Rising Production Pressure

• Thailand projects an 18% increase in sugar production, reaching 10.35 million metric tons.
• This is expected to create downward pressure on global sugar prices, increasing competition among exporters.

Bangladesh’s Industry Revival

• Bangladesh is working to reopen six closed sugar mills with the help of international partnerships, aiming for modernization and greater self-sufficiency.

Pakistan’s Pricing Challenges

• Despite sufficient production, sugar prices in Pakistan have surged, prompting direct government intervention to negotiate lower prices and stabilize supplies ahead of Ramadan.
• Efforts include anti-hoarding initiatives and building up strategic sugar stocks.

Strategic Implications:

• India’s careful balancing of exports and domestic supplies helps prevent market disruption but keeps pressure on future opening stock levels.
• European protectionist measures could alter global trade flows, affecting Ukrainian exporters and internal EU sugar dynamics.
• Brazil's lower output and Thailand’s production surge present competing forces on the global price outlook.
• Bangladesh's mill revival suggests new future capacity in South Asia, while Pakistan’s internal struggles highlight the difficulty of managing surplus and price stability simultaneously.
• Global traders should monitor revised deficit projections and prepare for possible market surplus scenarios later this year.

Listen to this episode for:

• How India’s market management strategy is shaping global sugar trade
• EU’s moves to limit Ukrainian sugar imports
• Brazil’s production cuts and their impact on global supply
• Thailand’s sugar surge and possible price pressure
• Bangladesh’s ambitious sugar industry revival plan
• Pakistan’s fight to curb rising domestic prices