Global Sugar Market Update – Week of April 27, 2025

This week's report examines India's tightening regulations in the sugar sector, Brazil's mixed production prospects, Thailand's export challenges, Egypt’s self-sufficiency milestone, and broader global trade and production dynamics.

Key Themes Discussed:

Uttar Pradesh, India: Strengthening Sugarcane Procurement Integrity

• Under Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath, Uttar Pradesh reinforces its economic growth strategy, focusing heavily on the sugar sector.
• 16,233 centers were inspected, leading to corrective action against procurement irregularities.
• The state aims to boost the sugar and jaggery sector value significantly within the next three years.

Brazil: Sugar Production Outlook Remains Positive but Weather-Dependent

• Production is projected to rise 2.3% to 44.7 million metric tons in the 2025–26 season.
• However, drought and heat in São Paulo could cause a 3.4% production drop.
• Despite regional setbacks, expanded crystallization capacity is expected to suppress global sugar prices.

Thailand: Export Crisis from China’s Ban

• Thailand’s sugar sector faces financial and operational strain due to China’s continuing ban on sugar syrup imports over sanitation concerns.
• Despite efforts, the ban remains unresolved, severely disrupting Thai exporters.

Egypt: Achieves Sugar Self-Sufficiency

• Egypt’s sugar production surpassed 3 million metric tons in 2025, led by increased sugar beet cultivation.
• A value-added tax on sugar will be introduced in FY25–26 to support revenues while preserving self-sufficiency.

Philippines: Stability Amid Expansion Challenges

• Sugar output is expected to hold steady at 1.85 million metric tons in 2026.
• Despite lower mill site prices projected for 2025, stable domestic demand fuels cautious optimism for 2026.

Russia (Krasnodar): Production Drop with Recovery Plans

• Sugar beet harvests fell 24% in 2024, but the 2025 cultivation area increased by 12%.
• Government support aims to stabilize Russia’s sugar production, despite recent challenges.

Strategic Implications:

• India's tightened oversight bolsters farmer protections and sustains industry credibility.
• Brazil’s expanded processing capacity and weather resilience will be critical in shaping global sugar pricing.
• Thailand’s export hurdles highlight vulnerabilities tied to trade relations and compliance issues.
• Egypt’s self-sufficiency marks a major shift in African sugar trade dynamics.
• The global sugar market is increasingly sensitive to trade restrictions, policy shifts, and climate-induced production volatility.

Listen to this episode for:

• Regional production and policy updates
• Key risk factors influencing global sugar prices
• Strategic insights for anticipating supply-demand shifts through the remainder of 2025 and into 2026